How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[DMS]

1 hour ago, Monty's Mighty Moustache said:

Rebuilding the Soviet Union would be my guess

Absolutely not. He hates communists, who "gave too much to non-russian republics". Russian Empire, may be.

[John Kettler]

Just has a Eureka moment. The Z almost certainly stands for Zapad (west),  and Ukraine is indeed to the west of Russia. And that was my thought before I ever saw this, which is the first of a slew of articles on the possibilities of or unfolding Ukraine invasion. The article at the link says some analysts think it stands for Zelensky, Putin's nemesis.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/z-painted-on-russian-tanks-and-military-vehicles-near-ukraine-border?ref=scroll

Regards,

John Kettler

[MOS:96B2P]

1 hour ago, Kraft said:

Swift has suddenly disappeared as possible sanction, 

I'm also hearing this on the US news networks.  This is surprising and I have not heard a clear reason why.  Maybe the west was just bluffing about cutting Russia off from the Swift banking system the last few weeks?    

[riptides]

5 minutes ago, MOS:96B2P said:

I'm also hearing this on the US news networks.  This is surprising and I have not heard a clear reason why.  Maybe the west was just bluffing about cutting Russia off from the Swift banking system the last few weeks?    

Off a tweeter feed - Germany, Italy, Hungary and Cyprus blocked the effort this AM.

[danfrodo]

this is NOT meant to be politcal statement.   Just something that I think is coming.  Putin et al will throw back into the faces of 'the west' that 'the west' invaded a country that posed no threat and installed (or at least tried to) a puppet regime in Iraq.  The US has lots of powerful politicians who consistently clamor for bombing Iran.  So how can the west say anything about what Russia is doing? 

That's what my PR team would be doing if I was getting paid by Putin.  I'd be throwing it back onto the blatent hypocrisy of the western nations.

[akd]

9 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

Just has a Eureka moment. The Z almost certainly stands for Zapad (west),  and Ukraine is indeed to the west of Russia. And that was my thought before I ever saw this, which is the first of a slew of articles on the possibilities of or unfolding Ukraine invasion. The article at the link says some analysts think it stands for Zelensky, Putin's nemesis.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/z-painted-on-russian-tanks-and-military-vehicles-near-ukraine-border?ref=scroll

Regards,

John Kettler

This is dumb.  “Z” is not “Z” in Cyrillic, but rather “з”.

[db_zero]

How the Russian will handle the large urban areas? Surround and siege or try to storm? Urban combat is brutal.

Another big question is if it comes to a point where the Ukrainian soldiers and militia say they've had enough-for now and they decide slip out to NATO countries like Poland, how will NATO handle this? Is the West prepared to support a long term insurgency?

I also have to think that Ukraine has been preparing for this moment and stashed a lot of weapons and ammo. Javelins, Stingers and other modern weapons provided by the west are likely to be stashed if not used and Ukraine is a large country and 190,000 troops seems a bit small to effectively occupy a large country like the Ukraine.

[Armorgunner]

11 minutes ago, db_zero said:

How the Russian will handle the large urban areas? Surround and siege or try to storm? Urban combat is brutal.

Another big question is if it comes to a point where the Ukrainian soldiers and militia say they've had enough-for now and they decide slip out to NATO countries like Poland, how will NATO handle this? Is the West prepared to support a long term insurgency?

I also have to think that Ukraine has been preparing for this moment and stashed a lot of weapons and ammo. Javelins, Stingers and other modern weapons provided by the west are likely to be stashed if not used and Ukraine is a large country and 190,000 troops seems a bit small to effectively occupy a large country like the Ukraine.

I just wonder? Is 190.000 soldiers, just in the offensive units? Or is it with supply units, with fuel, ammo, SAM, AAA, and so on?

Maybe 50-60.000 Belorussian soldiers are on the Russian side now also? Maybe @Haiduk know?

Edited February 24, 2022 by Armorgunner

[The_Capt]

5 minutes ago, db_zero said:

Ukraine is a large country and 190,000 troops seems a bit small to effectively occupy a large country like the Ukraine.

Not even close.  Iraqi Freedom in 2003, had about 310k and couldn't control a country with roughly the same population but 200k sq kms smaller.  And Iraq wasn't getting MANPADs and Javelins from outside allies.  So the insurgency gets ugly, Russian security forces get bled, and then the inevitable retribution gets broadcast on the internet.  Russia cannot bail because its propped up regime likely will not stand without support, it is personal now (sound familiar - Afghanistan).

All the while the economic sanctions squeeze.

So back to, "how exactly does Putin think this will end?"

[Doc844]

Unfortunately urban combat is the only place where the Ukrainians can possibly stop the Russians and bleed them.

[Aragorn2002]

15 minutes ago, db_zero said:

How the Russian will handle the large urban areas? Surround and siege or try to storm? Urban combat is brutal.

Another big question is if it comes to a point where the Ukrainian soldiers and militia say they've had enough-for now and they decide slip out to NATO countries like Poland, how will NATO handle this? Is the West prepared to support a long term insurgency?

I also have to think that Ukraine has been preparing for this moment and stashed a lot of weapons and ammo. Javelins, Stingers and other modern weapons provided by the west are likely to be stashed if not used and Ukraine is a large country and 190,000 troops seems a bit small to effectively occupy a large country like the 

Remember the UPA. They fought on for years after 1943/1944.

Edited February 24, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Lethaface]

13 minutes ago, db_zero said:

How the Russian will handle the large urban areas? Surround and siege or try to storm? Urban combat is brutal.

Another big question is if it comes to a point where the Ukrainian soldiers and militia say they've had enough-for now and they decide slip out to NATO countries like Poland, how will NATO handle this? Is the West prepared to support a long term insurgency?

I also have to think that Ukraine has been preparing for this moment and stashed a lot of weapons and ammo. Javelins, Stingers and other modern weapons provided by the west are likely to be stashed if not used and Ukraine is a large country and 190,000 troops seems a bit small to effectively occupy a large country like the Ukraine.

TOS-1 I guess.

[db_zero]

whats TOS-1?

Edited February 24, 2022 by db_zero

[Armorgunner]

17 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

TOS-1 I guess.

Or just using the mineclearing UR-77 Meteorit. They use to do it in Chechnya, to destroy entire streets!

 

Edit: And in Urban battles in Syria to! 

 

Edited February 24, 2022 by Armorgunner

[Armorgunner]

4 minutes ago, db_zero said:

whats TOS-1?

A 220mm Thermobaric rocket launcher

[ncc1701e]

17 minutes ago, db_zero said:

I also have to think that Ukraine has been preparing for this moment and stashed a lot of weapons and ammo. Javelins, Stingers and other modern weapons provided by the west are likely to be stashed if not used and Ukraine is a large country and 190,000 troops seems a bit small to effectively occupy a large country like the Ukraine.

What is the risk of Russia capturing javelins, analyzing them and developing their own or sending them to China?

[Kraft]

4 minutes ago, db_zero said:

whats TOS-1?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TOS-1 Thermobaric MLRS, seen en mass in prep and crossing the borders

[Lethaface]

4 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Not even close.  Iraqi Freedom in 2003, had about 310k and couldn't control a country with roughly the same population but 200k sq kms smaller.  And Iraq wasn't getting MANPADs and Javelins from outside allies.  So the insurgency gets ugly, Russian security forces get bled, and then the inevitable retribution gets broadcast on the internet.  Russia cannot bail because its propped up regime likely will not stand without support, it is personal now (sound familiar - Afghanistan).

All the while the economic sanctions squeeze.

So back to, "how exactly does Putin think this will end?"

This is why I was still sort of surprised this morning, especially the conflict broadened from Donbass. Maybe he just wanted to see what his modernized army is capable off. This goes beyond destabilizing Ukraine or Russia's security, even if one has the perspective that Russia's security was threatened by Western influence on Russia's western borders. 
That influence just got a long term 'buff'.

[CHEqTRO]

Unconfirmed, but hopefully true. If it is, the Ukranians have just achieved an important victory. We will have to wait for official confirmation and videos from the inside.

8 minutes ago, db_zero said:

I just heard that blocking Russia from the SWIFT system has been taken off the table because Germany, Hungary and a couple other counties vetoed it.

Regarding sanctions, I will still wait some days to see what the German government ends up doing. Hungary and Cyprus are a lost cause, but under pressure from US, UK and most importantly, France, they might finally go ahead with the SWIFT disconnect (Italy would most likely approve it if Germany ends up doing so). On the contrary, the Germans are risking getting isolated from all of their important allies and breaking EU and NATO cohesion. I will wait some days to see what they might end up doing. Unfortunetly, the decision might be taken in case Kiev falls or is close to.

Also, interesting quote from Biden:

If they are saying this, is because they dont rule out an eventual attack on the baltics

Edited February 24, 2022 by CHEqTRO

[Lethaface]

7 minutes ago, db_zero said:

whats TOS-1?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TOS-1

 

[John Kettler]

13 minutes ago, akd said:

This is dumb.  “Z” is not “Z” in Cyrillic, but rather “з”.

Am aware of that, thanks to the article. I don't read or speak more than a tiny amount of Russian. Regardless, the marking is distinctive, easily applied and highly unlikely to be confused with anything else. In any event, we have a new noun, zorrologists. Who knows, maybe someone in the Russian military saw Zorro and realized its potential as a recognition marking?

Regards,

John Kettler

[Aragorn2002]

4 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

Unconfirmed, but hopefully true. If it is, the Ukranians have just achieved an important victory. We will have to wait for official confirmation and videos from the inside.

Regarding sanctions, I will still wait some days to see what the German government ends up doing. Hungary and Cyprus are a lost cause, but under pressure from US, UK and most importantly, France, they might finally go ahead with the SWIFT disconnect (Italy would most likely approve it if Germany ends up doing so). On the contrary, the Germans are risking getting isolated from all of their important allies and breaking EU and NATO cohesion. I will wait some days to see what they might end up doing. Unfortunetly, the decision might be taken in case Kiev falls or is close to.

Time to close ranks. 

[Phantom Captain]

4 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

 

This would be such great news!

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, Lethaface said:

This is why I was still sort of surprised this morning, especially the conflict broadened from Donbass. Maybe he just wanted to see what his modernized army is capable off. This goes beyond destabilizing Ukraine or Russia's security, even if one has the perspective that Russia's security was threatened by Western influence on Russia's western borders. 
That influence just got a long term 'buff'.

The only angle I can think of right now is that he has somehow managed to penetrate the Ukrainian military and government and has cut a drug deal behind the scenes.  However, beyond being insulting to those Ukrainians who are currently dying for their country, this also raise the obvious question of "why do a full scale invasion act?"  I mean if he had sway inside the Ukrainian government why not pull that lever and stage a coup from the inside a la Crimea?  Cruise missiles and massive rocket bombardments do not demonstrate a sophisticated political warfare approach. 

So unless Putin has been dozing through the last 30 years of western misadventures or simply has been smoking his own supply and thinks "I will be different" because I ride bears on the weekend, this dance makes no sense.  This is the chapter Clausewitz never got to; "war is sometimes just plain dumb".

[akd]

14 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

Unconfirmed, but hopefully true

If true, we need no further evidence that Russia cannot provide air support to troops at night.  Ukraine should exploit this ruthlessly and we should flood them with as much quality night vision gear as possible.