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John Kettler

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Everything posted by John Kettler

  1. [content deleted by Moderator. Poster banned for life for repeated and willful violations of Forum policy and warnings, including specific ones issued earlier today]
  2. Holien, Definitely don't appreciate that label, and as my post should've made abundantly clear, am absolutely no fan of Putin. It's readily demonstrable that both warring sides are lying, making determining the truth that much more difficult. Ukraine has been several times caught now using ARMA video to depict Russian air attacks, and Russia has made up all sorts of stuff, repurposed video, etc. In checking to see what I could turn up pro or con on some of the issues raised by you, I found this, which cites a range of sources, some unambiguously Left (The Nation), that paints quite the picture of things not being at all like what we've been told. Among sources quoted are The Economist, Deutsche Welle, and Al Jazeera. One bombshell in this article is that the CIA had training teams working with Ukrainian Far Rght forces, including Azov, starting in 2015, for ops against the Separatists. The article talks about warnings given (posted to Telegram) of provocations (aka false flags) that would be done by Azov in Mariupol. It also talks about the lack of evidence, as described in The Economist, ref the bombing of the Mariupol Theater and notes reports to the Russians from fleeing refugees that Azov blew it up. A few days ago, there was at least one report by Ukrainian villagers that a Ukrainian tank rolled in and shot up their village, much to the consternation of the locals. I don't have specifics yet on this, but I now find myself wondering whether this might've been Azov at work. Believe this article will give you and others here much to think about as to what's really going on, who's involved and why. But my basic test is this: Who benefits and how? The below article is more than enough to convince me we're not even close to having the full story. And I would like to point out that before the invasion there was a ton of press coverage of Nazis in Ukraine, a topic that vanished as soon as Russia invaded, yet it is precisely one of Putin's stated objectives to de-Nazify Ukraine, which assuredly must mean that part of that declared mission has to consist of wiping out Azoz and other Far Right paramilitaries. From what I've seen to date, Azov seems to be doing quite well. https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/03/neo-nazis-in-ukraine-fake-incidents-to-gain-more-western-support.html?cid=6a00d8341c640e53ef0278807100f1200d Regards, John Kettler
  3. The_Capt, Well, the BMP-T has apparently been sent to Ukraine, so perhaps we should alert the elite Tractor Corps? As for T-14s, believe the Russians have 30 nominally in service for troop trials. No ideas on T-15 and Bumerang. On the low end of the scale, considering the Russians dug out their MT-12s, do they have any T-62s also in storage, or did they turn them into fortified gun positions facing China? Regards, John Kettler
  4. Haiduk, Wonderful song, haunting delivery, beautiful and rousing! thanks much for providing this. Regards, John Kettler
  5. womble, As far as I can tell so far, no one is telling the complete truth, but what I do believe is that, relative to what Russia could've done long since to devastate Ukraine, it hasn't. It didn't destroy the power supply, the water supply and treatment, waste treatment, etc. By contrast, when the US attacked Iraq, it did directly attack the power grid, doing such things as dropping chains on electrical substations and deploying carbon fiber cabling (via specially equipped Tomahawks) on high tension lines to short them out. Further, the US not only attacked Iraq's water supply, but used sanctions to prevent rebuilding after the first Persian Gulf war. https://www.greenleft.org.au/content/iraq-how-us-intentionally-destroyed-iraqs-water-supply Neither has Russia gone at the core of Kviv, based, at least, on the reporting I've seen to date. I fully believe that the Russians could've executed their own toned down version of shock and awe with cruise missiles and ballistic missiles, against vital Ukrainian infrastructure, from the get, but they didn't. Am definitely not advocating for canonizing Putin, but certainly by Russian standards, he has been remarkably restrained. The Soviets would've machine gunned the civilians blocking the roads, run them over with tanks, or even strafed them, but he hasn't. Granted, no one has had to conduct military operations with real time broadcasting of almost everything being done, so that most certainly has acted as a damper, because of extremely damaging optics before a global audience. There have absolutely been civilian casualties (total count unknown to me; have been focused on military side of things), and it's quite clear that some of the Russian soldiers have been nothing less than murdering, thieving thugs, as both eyewitness testimony and their own calls home conclusively prove. And accounts I saw yesterday on that French news video make a strong case that some Russian soldiers are simply gunning down hapless civilians. Fortunately, there has been no carpet bombing of residential areas that at I know of in Kviv, Kharkiv, etc. From what I know, Mariupol has been a veritable mini Stalingrad, with concomitant devastation of the city as both sides have fought a seesaw battle to control it. Other places hit seem to offer no such military justification at all, but in such a situation of ever worsening command chaos, how much is troops running amok and how much at Putin's direct behest? I don't know. But if war crimes have been committed, then the perps--at all levels--should be brought to justice. In the face of modern firepower, am astounded there have been so few reported civilian deaths. But we also know that certain claimed outrages have not occurred (bombing the in fact empty for days Mariupol maternity facility, but selling the story as a slaughter of pregnant mothers and infants by using a crisis actor and suitable BG; shades of the evil Iraqi soldiers stealing ventilators and leaving preemies to die--dreamed up by Hill & Knowlton), and that others (the shopping mall) were legitimate targets because not only was the complex used as a firing location for Grad, but because there was a significant quantity of UA vehicles garaged there as well. We know for a fact, by direct admission of one senior officer who piloted four such missions, that at least some RuAF operations have targeted civilians with large bombs (mercifully with a high dud rate), and am not quite sure where the truth lies ref MRL strikes, especially considering Azov, for example, which has de facto resorted to human shield tactics to protect their armor, trucks, and presumably infantry against UA strikes. Baiting the other side this way, for protection and propaganda purposes, is a well-established dirty trick. The North Vietnamese but AAA on hospitals, stored munitions in them and put AAA on the dikes, then raised a howl when we hit them. Mines are clearly in use by both sides, posing a significant risk to civilians as a result, and these assuredly are not the self-sterilizing variety, either. Have no handle at all on what has or hasn't been hit by thermobarics from Buratino, Uragan and Smerch. Offhand, the only one I know has been used for thermobarics is the Buratino, but that may be because I missed it, forgot, or was never reported. Street fighting footage shows that Shmel series thermobaric weapons are in use. UA has such munitions, too. The evidence of Russian use of cluster munitions in some cities is unambiguous. To my knowledge, areas hit had no military targets in them. At least, that's what Belingcat has shown in its usual meticulous manner. Am of the opinion that if Putin's intention was to conduct limited ops for defined (internally, at least) national purposes, one of which he's been quite vocal about, things have definitely gotten out of control (a problem doubtless made worse by the US-enabled devastation of the Russian senior commanders). But if Putin's objective from the get was to conquer Ukraine outright, then this may be the most restrained large scale military operation in both SU and RF history. This opinion is independent of whether or not Putin was ever able to succeed in such a gargantuan task to begin with, using the forces he had. No matter how you slice it, this war is the usual tragedy for the innocent civilians caught in the middle, be they in Ukraine, Donetsk or Luhansk. DesertFox, This is the sort of thing Andrew Cockburn wrote about in his shocking to many Inside The Soviet Military Machine, in which, by interviewing Jewish emigres in Brighton Beach, he was able to massively deflate the Bear, by revealing that, for example, alcohol to clean the rotating ring of radars was being drunk, NBC suits were being sold to fishermen, fuel was being sold to civilians. In Afghanistan, soldiers were selling their weapons to get money to buy drugs, too. There are multiple reports of wives and mothers trying to get the Soviet Air Force to stop building planes that were flying ethanol tanks, too. That tanks in storage had been pilfered to some degree doesn't surprise me, but I had no idea it was of such enormous scope and scale as to render the tanks completely unbattleworthy. Regards, John Kettler
  6. Vergeltungswaffe, Barring some stupendous breakthrough in compact power supplies, much as I love railguns and such, going back to that German electromagnetic cannon of WW II, I don't see how any drone smaller and lighter than say, a fully loaded A-10 could possibly mount a railgun and still fly. Didn't the US Navy wind up throwing in the towel on the railgun ground mount under test? Regards, John Kettler
  7. Machor, While the Ukrainian 2S7 appears normal from boradside, that's quite the flesh wound in the face! Do find it odd that the longest range artillery the UA has got catured even if immobilized, as oppsoed to far shorter range FA in service. Those T-64s look to be camouflaged with plastic tarps. Haiduk, If you know, please, what's that song, so I can lok it up. Dig it. Kinzhal observation Believe we may be abble to get at least some sense of the Kinzhal's aerostructure from looking at the stout carcass of that Tochka-U in the Russian video shot at the Port of Berdyansk. Regards, John Kettler
  8. Canada Guy, Would love, likely with others here, to read your master's thesis. Please post a link if possible. Haiduk and other Ukrainians, In that French news broadcast the apparent Russian Orthodox cleric said Ukraine means resistance. Is that true? If not, what does it men? Regards, John. Kettler
  9. Haiduk, We should call Ukrainian tractors TRS--Trophy Recovery Systems, the shortened form of TRS4OSRE (Trophy Recovery 4 Operational Strategic Replenishment & Exploitation). While I'm being a bit waggish, will we find John Deere tractors on the ITAR list? Regards, John Kettler
  10. Knew they flew low, but this makes earlier Russian heliassault helo footage look like high altitude by comparison. Guess the villagers lacked AKs and sporting rifles, unlike those Iraqi farmers who hosed US Apaches. If the Russians are going to fly that low, then maybe deploy elite skeet shooting and grouse hunting units to counter them? 12 gauge firing steel 00 buckshot would likely be damaging, and even disconcerting at that flight level suffices to create a crash. Something else that ought to be considered would be MONs and claymores ointed skywards, or even that useful German WW II method: command detonated explosive under piles of rocks to deal with low flyers attacking tunnels. Regards, John Kettler
  11. LukeFF, How, please? Saw nothing earlier on those two topics in this thread and skimmed forward from 247 (where I was current to) until the thread and saw nothing on either the Pentagon counternarrative leaks or the admission of US provision of real0time actionable intel. Kinophile, Concluding it was going on was one thing, but having an official admission of that quite another. In the former case, I argued by analogy, ref Falklands War, the US had done this kind of thing before, in terms of providing intelligence support, but also pointed out the positions were considerably different in that UK is part of FIVE EYES, and I forgot to mention such things as BRUSA, too. Regards, John Kettler
  12. sross112, The well-known facility that's running Predators, Reapers, etc., is Creech Air Force Base. https://dronespros.com/drone-pilots-daily-deployed-at-creech-air-force-base/ It's the secure nerve center, but the actual network proper is ramified. https://codepinkgoldengate.org/creech-to-ramstein-a-network-of-killer-drone-bases/ Regards, John Kettler
  13. Ref small EMP weapons, would like to point out a FSB sniper and target designation team in Ukraine in 2015 was carrying an anti-drone EMP rifle. It was clearly visible in the helmet cam footage recovered by UA SO troops. Would further note the US Army has a patented device which can turn a M4 carbine into a EMP weapon. Finally, would note that post-SU collapse, the Swedes obtained and fired a ex-Soviet NNEMP (non-nuclear EMP bomb, with results Swedish defense officials termed "devastating to electronics". Nine anti-drone weapons, ranging from man-portable to area defense. https://interestingengineering.com/drone-hunters-9-of-the-most-effective-anti-drone-technologies-for-shooting-drones-out-of-the-sky This could lead to grokking in fullness acquiring a wholly new meaning. https://anti-drone.eu/products/jammers/grok-mobile-gun.html Here's a new French one. https://www.zdnet.com/article/an-electromagnetic-anti-drone-gun/ There's one that even has a NATO Stock Number https://www.droneshield.com/dronegun-tactical/ Here's one that can not only defeat three NAVSAT systems (GPS, GLONASS and Beidou) but hit other frequencies as well. https://www.ihuntdrone.com/product/anti-drone-rifle/ Wagner Group in Syria is using the latest and greatest Kalashnikov anti-drone rifle. https://www.rbth.com/science-and-tech/326955-futuristic-firearm-russias-military-got The above is by no means comprehensive, but it does show there are multiple anti-drone systems available right now, funds permitting and that some are already in military service. Regards, John Kettler
  14. Haiduk, Believe your characterization of the RKG-1600 is a bit confused. The grenade hasn't been upgraded, but merely fitted with fins so it can be used as an aerial bomb. Essentially, this is what the Japanese did when they converted 14" naval AP shells to aerial bombs, such as those used to sink the USS ARIZONA at Pearl Harbor. Regards, John Kettler
  15. dan/california, That point was definitively made when the IDF's 190th Armored Brigade was massacred trying to recapture part of the Bar Lev line in 1973 by AT-3s and RPG-7s. Can't say I'm shocked that half a century later the lesson has had to be retaught and even more painfully, relearned. Would note, though, the Egyptians cheated. How? By stripping out the antitank means of an entire reserve army still on the other side of the Suez Canal, so the Israelis faced twice the AT firepower they otherwise would've. And today's ATGMs are SF level relative to the AT-3s of yore. Regards, John Kettler
  16. Steve, And let's not forget how Bellingcat comprehensively established the Russians supplied the Buk used to down the Malaysian Air MH17 (283 passengers and 15 crew killed), tracking it from IDed SAM regiment garrison, through pickup at border by a coerced trucker w/lowboy at the border, movement to the firing site, firing, reloading on the coerced truck rig, return. to the border, recovery by the Russians, and return to identified unit. It even had a pic of the military driver proudly standing in front of his tractor trailer rig with the Buk in plain sight. It was taken on his last day of service and posted on VKontakte. Have read the Netherlands government directly thanked Bellingcat for providing the irrefutable evindence of direct Russian involvement in the massacre. Believe SBU also provided the transcripts of intercepted calls between the Separatist CO and his FSB handler, too. Know there was a crackdown after that SM debacle, but either the lesson has been forgotten or the security organs are not too bright, properly motivated or both. Regards, John Kettler
  17. Believe I have two significant developments to report. The Pentagon has leaked the conclusions of its own analyses of what Putin's really doing in Ukraine and how. They are emphatically counter the official narrative of what Putin's doing, regarding such things as objectives, force applied, targets, attacks on civilians and infrastructure, prospects for chemical attacks and more. https://consortiumnews.com/2022/03/23/pentagon-drops-truth-bombs-to-stave-off-war-with-russia/ The second item is incandescent in its own way, for the Pentagon has now admitted it is providing actionable intelligence to the Ukrainian military--mere weaks after saying it wasn't! This goes a long way toward explaining the ever growing list of senior officers killed, wounded or captured. Some wounded and evacuated to Russia have since DOW and declared heroes. https://geopolitics.co/2022/03/25/pentagon-targeting-russian-generals/ Regards, John Kettler
  18. The_Capt, Am well aware and am trying to fix. On my end it looked as though nothing happened at all, so I tried again and again. Luckily, I got here in time to eliminate my part of the posts, but could do nothing about the quote. Regards, John Kettler
  19. Technical problems resulting in duplicate posts. Deleting what I can.
  20. Bulletpoint, Let me give you a Soviet perspective on initiative, which is doubtless what you're seeing in this war. In a translation of an article from their homeland air defense journal where it talked about free hunt (fighter sweep) and initiative, it said: "Initiative consists of exact conformity to the commander's plan." Yes, you read that correctly. Almost fell out of my chair at work in shock. Everything is driven by the plan, and failure to execute a combat order has dire, possibly fatal, consequences. Unless, or until, the order is changed, that's where and how the attack will be done. The Russian Army in Ukraine is falling apart because there is no one (because blown up, run away, captured) to straighten out the mess, and for those still around, no real comms. If you read the GPW accounts, things got sorted out at army and front, generally not quickly, either, but typically not at lower echelons, where it was mostly do or die with fire being breathed on them from multiple directions.This isn't to say that at times some didn't buck the system and take potentially fatal chances to sort out problems, but the overall mindset was to carry out the combat order in exacting detail. In Hackett's Third World War August 1985, he presents a vignette in which the Soviets are trying to break a NATO defensive position, but they can't do it because they can't get the MRLs' impact zone to fall on the target in an effective manner. If the MRLs were allowed to displace a bit to the rear and laterally, then the problem would be solved, and the attack would succeed. When the Soviet MRL commander pointed this out to higher, the political officer intervened and told him retreat was categorically forbidden. When he pressed the point, he was removed from command at gunpoint, hustled out, and his deputy took over. He, of course, cooperated with the political officer, resulting in yet more failed attacks. Such COs as remain in Ukraine now appear to be deathly afraid of issuing new orders and so either keep trying to execute the last one or simply do nothing. Indeed, they may be unable to do anything useful, for want of, well, everything needful. The troops trained to exercise initiative (VDV, SO, SOBR, etc.) have been shredded, captured or both, depriving the Russian army of eyes and means of delivering swift, deadly strikes, too. From what I can tell, most of what remains faces a slog, starting with adverse weather for which they're ill equipped, mud and messed up logistics, in the face of a well equipped, well armed (and getting more so by the day), well fed, utterly determined and implacable foe, backed by people who can, will and do resist on their own and with own troops. When the octogenarians come out to fight you, you've got a real read on how much resistance you're facing. For me, it's no surprise at all the Russians keep hitting the same place over and over again--and failing and failing and failing. In the attack, the Soviet/Russian rule is to reinforce success and strip bare the failed attacks to break through and disembowel the foe, but they can't do that, either, because their mobility is almost nil. They're roadbound almost exclusively and even if they wanted to, can't effectively shift forces, for want of basic resources, especially fuel, and because their rear and LOCs are under merciless and effective attack, depriving them of much of the little they do have. Such forces which do attack seem to do so in the most ineffective, oft militarily stupid ways possible, such as the single or handful of tanks parades gadding about with no infantry support at all, no FS and no air support. Frankly, my brain's about to melt from simply trying to make sense of the plainly senseless things I'm seeing and hearing. Daily. A now, we're in weapon usage territory the likes of which I've never imagined or read of, still less seen. At no point in my Soviet Threat Analyst career was there ever so much as a whiff of using a TBM for attacking ships in port. We worried about CPs, radar site, air bases and such, but. not once strikes on a port. We were aware of Tochka-U, but only as SS-21b, having watched the Russians try to hide the submunition craters on their test range from our spy satellites.But I guarantee you at no point did we ever envisage a port strike which would destroy one vessel outright, blow up a warehouse and damage two other ships, all with one missile and a few dozen smallish submunitions. Talk about a cost effective attack! Summing up, I seriously doubt there's been so much chaos and commander losses, woundings and captures, at such high levels, since the early days of Barbarossa within first the Soviet, and now, the Russian military. Regards, John Kettler
  21. Taranis, Saw the video and found it both well done and engrossing. Believe you did us a service by posting the transcript to supplement the video. While it lacks the immediacy of the radio intercepts, nor does it include all the distractions in the video, such as watching the signal plot and virtual control panel. Thought the intrusion by someone playing the melody for "Dixie" was priceless. Regards, John Kettler
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