How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Lethaface]

9 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

To my mind that is kinda in that political warfare space (every sphere has its own terms).  Unless you are talking a cyber WME vs Russia, but I think if they were going to do that they would have already pulled the trigger.  I think in the cyber and subversive zones the west has been totally caught flat footed.  You want Putin to bleed heavy and maybe even lose? Conduct "non-attributable" cyber attacks on Russian C4ISR while they are in mid-operation (I actually pray to god we do).  I have no doubt the west has the capability, it is the will to go there that was missing.  The primary fear was one of "escalation" but I think that stinky barge has sailed.

One thing about 'offensive' cyberattacks is that part of the weapons are spend after usage (malware type). DDOS / overburdening type of attacks aren't, but they aren't usually sustainable for a longer period. 
However who knows what kind of stuff they can come up with. I'd assume the Russian MoD network be well protected and separated from internet. But if one would be able to affect some part of it's infrastructure in some way, or the Doema's mailsystem? 
And indeed I think those options are now definitely on the table.

[White2Golf]

12 minutes ago, womble said:

That would be crossing a rather significant line, wouldn't it?! There would be literally no way back for Putin if they did that, and the eternal enmity of Ukraine and its peoples would be a consequence not conducive to a durable puppet regime, if that's their goal. I mean, they had a puppet with the Old Guard, didn't they? And that didn't survive, even without the fire that using chemical warfare on Ukrainian soil would put in the bellies of UKR patriots.

Fully agree, it would be a MASSIVE line crossed.  But any kind of MOPP posture would indicate they at least thought about it and perhaps would be prepared for it if things did not go as planned?   I am relieved to see no indications of it being a concern as of now....   

Edited February 24, 2022 by White2Golf
Typo

[CHEqTRO]

8 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

What does it mean that Putins army can operate from the territory of White Russia? That worries me just as much as the invasion of Ukraine.

They supposedly were going to have a constitutional referendum on the 27. The questions have yet to be revealed, but I guess we all know what its going to be about. However, they said that in case of war the referendum would be postponed. As of now, there has not being any announcement about any delay

Edited February 24, 2022 by CHEqTRO

[Armorgunner]

25 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Well, I hope you're right. I hope the Ukrainians will fight like lions. I salute them all.

Slava Ukraini 

[Lethaface]

1 hour ago, Armorgunner said:

Or just using the mineclearing UR-77 Meteorit. They use to do it in Chechnya, to destroy entire streets!

 

Edit: And in Urban battles in Syria to! 

 

Similar nasty weapon I guess. TOS-1 was used in Iraq. Let's hope it doesn't go that far / nasty in Ukraine.

[Aragorn2002]

2 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

They supposedly were going to have a constitutional referendum on the 27. The questions have yet to be revealed, but I guess we all know what its going to be about. However, they said that in case of war the referendum would be postponed. As of now, there has not being any announcement about any delay

Anschluss...

[CHEqTRO]

23 minutes ago, akd said:

They may be playing psyops games with isolated groups of Russians that have not been reduced. Given the situation, "scattered" seems an odd outcome.

Now, here is a lucky cab driver:

 

Its likely that you were right. Althought it seems that the target of the misinformation was not really the russian troops in the airport, but maybe the ones coming to reinforce! :

(That is, of course, if this is actually true, and not another "psyop")

Edited February 24, 2022 by CHEqTRO

[womble]

5 minutes ago, White2Golf said:

Fully agree, it would be a MASSIVE line crossed.  But any kind of MOPP posture would indicate they at least thought about it and perhaps would be prepared for it if things did not go as planned?   I am relieved to see no indications of it being a concern as of now....   

Just to be clear, I'm not offering any info either way on whether the invaders are prepared for such things. But, at this stage, even if it had been considered as a contingency, that sort of deployment would be done deliberately (as opposed to spontaneously) so any potentally affected RUS formations would be able to don their protective gear "just in time", rather than riding in the stuff when it's way too early for it even to be potentially necessary.

Consider that Iraq got invaded just for pretending they had chemical weapons hidden away, the risks involved in that sort of escalation seem to require a very potent trigger.

[Vet 0369]

23 hours ago, db_zero said:

While there are lingering questions to what if anything was promised to Gorbachev regarding NATO expansion east after the collapse of the USSR, the west should not be surprised at what’s going on. NATO expansion east was bound to cause reaction by Russia and Ukraine’s geographical location and terrain makes it critical in the eyes of Russia.

 

The timing of all this is no coincidence. Putin knows his main adversary the US is politically divided. He has elements as well as key political figures who are sympathetic to his cause. Now is a good a time as any to move before this advantage slips away.

 

Putin may have a trump card to play to counter the economic sanctions. For the past few years Russia has been buying and stockpiling physical gold. With inflation running wild in the west due to out of control monetary policy stretching back to 2009 the price of gold has been holding steady and recently catching a bid.

 

Like drugs, controlling sales of physical gold is hard to control, regardless of economic sanctions and controls in place. There will always be a buyer and in a day and age where fiat currencies are coming under question due to mis-management, metals become more desirable to possess.

 

Then there is the question of US Federal Reserve policy. Inflation is running hot and to try and control it the Fed will have to raise rates. Problem is with the US deficit so high each basis point increase in rates will cause hundreds of billion in addition cost to the interest on debt already accrued. There are other potential perils in rate policy, but the bottom line is raising the US defense budget to meet growing threats may become problematical.

 

Then there is China. In the past the West in particular the US has been adept at playing China and Russia against one another. That day has passed. The action of the US over the past few years has made it difficult if not impossible to play China and Russia off against one another. Now China and Russia view the US as the main adversary and are working together to bring a slow and prolonged end to US dominance.

 

I have no idea hot the situation in the Ukraine will get, but I can see bad times all around.

 

I read a news report that Russian entities have already been setting up methods to avoid or minimize any pain from threatened (or should I say now that Russia has invaded Ukrainian) sanctions. They have been quietly converting cash in their reserves to bitcoin type purchases so they don’t have to depend on any international financing.

[CHEqTRO]

Very much unconfirmed, but this would be very bad news. If they are near Mykolaiv, it means that they have achieved a deep breaktrought in the south. Its likely that the whole western seaboard will be lost in that case.

EDIT: In opposition to this:

If the city of Kherson is still in Ukranian hands, they hardly can be on Mykolaiv. Unless they came from other direction, or bypassed the city at its north 

Edited February 24, 2022 by CHEqTRO

[BletchleyGeek]

23 minutes ago, db_zero said:

For some reason I think that while China talks tough on China, it's just talk. Its also very risky. Amphibious operations are the most difficult to pull off. Taiwan only has a few beaches suitable for sea invasion and they are atrocious terrain for any invader. It heavily favors the defender. 

Any invasion would require serious preparation and as already demonstrated by events in Ukraine and serious preparation will be detected.

The PLA has been wargaming that invasion for like 70 years now. I am pretty sure they have figured out how to make it work, if the cost/benefit analysis works out. The capabilities of the PLA on air, sea and land are greater on paper, granted, than the Russian army, that has more "hands on experience". I would say that the US/ANZAC, and Japan capabilities are also "on paper" never actually tested.

I said before that history isn't going in the right direction. All reactions to Russia's war of aggression indicate that the Chinese leadership was well informed of what was going to happen, and had plenty of time to prepare to keep a "straight" face.

Paraphrasing a certain British politician: Russia must fail, and must be seen to fail. Otherwise, it will be just "might is right", and just that.

[Vet 0369]

16 hours ago, BigDork said:

We've all been there. One thing people need to remember is to never judge a whole people based off their country's leadership. 

Hear, hear! These posts are the best proof of the international community here in the Battlefront, regardless of some who seem to be intent on just sowing discord.

[Bulletpoint]

24 minutes ago, womble said:

Consider that Iraq got invaded just for pretending they had chemical weapons hidden away, the risks involved in that sort of escalation seem to require a very potent trigger.

Even at the height of the madness of WW2, none of the sides employed chemical or biological weapons, even though they had them, including Germany. So I think we're still far from that moment.

However, it's not as unthinkable as it used to be. They were used several times in Syria, despite "red lines". Assad is still in power... thanks to Putin.

Edited February 24, 2022 by Bulletpoint

[Aragorn2002]

2 minutes ago, BletchleyGeek said:

The PLA has been wargaming that invasion for like 70 years now. I am pretty sure they have figured out how to make it work, if the cost/benefit analysis works out. The capabilities of the PLA on air, sea and land are greater on paper, granted, than the Russian army, that has more "hands on experience". I would say that the US/ANZAC, and Japan capabilities are also "on paper" never actually tested.

I said before that history isn't going in the right direction. All reactions to Russia's war of aggression indicate that the Chinese leadership was well informed of what was going to happen, and had plenty of time to prepare to keep a "straight" face.

Paraphrasing a certain British politician: Russia must fail, and must be seen to fail. Otherwise, it will be just "might is right", and just that.

Perhap we should stop underestimating our enemies and overestimating our own strength. The world is changing and this isn't 2003 anymore.

[db_zero]

14 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

I read a news report that Russian entities have already been setting up methods to avoid or minimize any pain from threatened (or should I say now that Russia has invaded Ukrainian) sanctions. They have been quietly converting cash in their reserves to bitcoin type purchases so they don’t have to depend on any international financing.

That would be perfect for the US. Inspite of its reputation for being anonymous, transactions on the blockchain can be tracked. 

Perfect target for US Cyber Operations.

[Bulletpoint]

Sorry if this is a bit silly in a serious moment, but every time I see those Z's I can't help but think of this old comic.

Z is for Zorglub - a cartoon villain intent of taking over the world.

[Haiduk]

During assault of Hostomel airfield out troops used artillery, tanks and helicopters. Russian reinforced VDV compnay, which held airfield, who survived, dispersed and scattered in the fields

Edited February 24, 2022 by Haiduk

[BeondTheGrave]

3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

During assault of Hostomel airfield out troops used artillery, tanks and helicopters. Russian reinforced VDV compnay, which held airfield, who survived, dispersed and scattered in the fields

Deep penetration raids are a bold strategy, but risky. They need immediate reinforcement to succeed. I wonder why the Russian's didn't attempt some kind of combat drop or heliborne reinforcement like the one we saw this morning. Perhaps Ukrainian Stinger positions scared them off? Says a lot in that case about the efficacy of NATO supply efforts in the last few months. 

Also IIRC Russian VDV is no joke, probably some of the best troops they have. I have also seen photos of Russian BMDs, though maybe at a different airport? If they had BMDs in Kiev, thats a stinging loss. To push them off an objective is no easy feat, obviously hard fighting is needed. Good planning and organization too. 

If true good riddance. Every lost member of the Russian military's elite is a good thing in my book. 

[db_zero]

47 minutes ago, BletchleyGeek said:

The PLA has been wargaming that invasion for like 70 years now. I am pretty sure they have figured out how to make it work, if the cost/benefit analysis works out. The capabilities of the PLA on air, sea and land are greater on paper, granted, than the Russian army, that has more "hands on experience". I would say that the US/ANZAC, and Japan capabilities are also "on paper" never actually tested.

I said before that history isn't going in the right direction. All reactions to Russia's war of aggression indicate that the Chinese leadership was well informed of what was going to happen, and had plenty of time to prepare to keep a "straight" face.

Paraphrasing a certain British politician: Russia must fail, and must be seen to fail. Otherwise, it will be just "might is right", and just that.

I don't put much faith in wargames as indication of how the real thing will play out. Before the 1991 Gulf War it was estimated we would suffer 10s of thousands of casualties based on wargames. Former Def Secretary Gates mentioned the extensive wargaming that predicted outcomes and said its unreliable.

We're talking about an amphibious invasion from a nation that has little practical combat experience, let alone amphibious invasion experience. The would be tasked with not only carrying out one of the most difficult military operations-an amphibious invasion, but would also have to gain and maintain complete air and naval dominance over s sustained period. That's a big ask of a  force with no practical experience.

On the other hand the defending force only have to delay and disrupt. That's a easier task.

Once ashore they will have to be able to resupply a large force. The terrain of Taiwan heavily favors the defenders and the island was already heavily fortified and Taiwan has undoubtedly enhanced what was already there. 

The huge urban areas would be a massive proposition to take and while on paper the Chinese Army dwarfs Taiwan, there is only so much China can deploy and actually keep supplied to Taiwan.

Taiwan would have the advantage of being the defender in favorable conditions and have the advantage of interior line of communications. They also have an ample stash of sophisticated portable weapons.

Invading Taiwan also carries huge political risks internal and external for any Chinese leader who launches an invasion.

In any event there is no indication China is mobilizing for an invasion of Taiwan and Taiwan has put its military on high alert so the element of surprise in not present.

Edited February 24, 2022 by db_zero

[Haiduk]

9 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

I have also seen photos of Russian BMDs, though maybe at a different airport? If they had BMDs in Kiev, thats a stinging loss. To push them off an objective is no easy feat, obviously hard fighting is needed. Good planning and organization too. 

If true good riddance. Every lost member of the Russian military's elite is a good thing in my book. 

No, they hadn't armor. Probably this was one of new formed since 2019 airmobile units, which land from helicopters without the armor. I think, they expected new wave from 76th VDV division and advance from Chernobyl zone, which they captured at the day, but something went wrong

Edited February 24, 2022 by Haiduk

[Commanderski]

On Fox News it was just reported: Russia’s all-out attack on Ukraine has killed at least 57 people and wounded 169 during the first day of President Vladimir Putin's full-scale invasion, Ukraine’s Health Minister Oleh Lyashko said Thursday.

I wonder if we'll ever find out about Russia's casualties, which may be way more than what they inflicted.

[Vet 0369]

4 hours ago, Probus said:

I would like to thank all of you for being so civil and keeping this thread on track. I’m really proud of you guys. 
 

I really can’t believe this. It’s surreal. Putin has stayed one step ahead of the West up until today.. 

I’m not sure Putin “stayed one step ahead … today.” In any negotiation, both parties must have a “no higher than and a no lower than” range. A negotiation can be successful only if those ranges overlap. If one party has no real intention of negotiating, the negotiation must fail.

[BeondTheGrave]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

No, they hadn't armor. Probably this was one of new formed since 2019 airmobile units, which land from helicopters without the armor. I think, they expected new wave from 76th VDV division and advance from Chernobyl zone, which they captured at the day, but something went wrong

Cheers, sorry to post something in error. 

What went wrong, clearly, was they didn't expect the Ukrainians to put up such spirited resistance. Silver lining in such a horrible situation. 

[BletchleyGeek]

9 minutes ago, db_zero said:

In any event there is no indication China is mobilizing for an invasion of Taiwan and Taiwan has put its military on high alert so the element of surprise in not present.

I agree that it's not something that will be happening tomorrow, and it would not be politically cheap.

Good point re: 1st Gulf War. Same applies to the PLA: we may well be overestimating the difficulty of that operation. Okinawa was a difficult campaign, and the attacker came on top eventually as well with a huge human and political cost... 

[Vet 0369]

3 hours ago, ncc1701e said:

What is the risk of Russia capturing javelins, analyzing them and developing their own or sending them to China?

 

3 hours ago, ncc1701e said:

What is the risk of Russia capturing javelins, analyzing them and developing their own or sending them to China?

I imagine that it’s a very high probability. I thought the same thing when I read jabs were being sent in. Of course, the U.S. might already have a replacement ready and consider jams effectively obsolete.