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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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16 hours ago, Probus said:

The forces amassing over there are getting ridiculous.  Is this just sabre rattling by Russia or are they going to pull the trigger?

 

Welcome here : 

 

Edited by Haiduk
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On 2/11/2022 at 7:44 AM, Probus said:

The forces amassing over there are getting ridiculous.  Is this just sabre rattling by Russia or are they going to pull the trigger?

F15-poland.jpg?quality=70&width=1440

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44245/fully-armed-grim-reaper-f-15-eagles-deploy-to-poland-in-response-to-russian-military-build-up

They kinda remind me of Robotech. :) 

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRM5zOIoIus6fK67QNatWt

A lot of the squadrons have been around since WWII. I suspect that Robotech took some inspiration from them. 

H

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If Russia Tries anything soon the ground won't help them. The weather over the next 4-5 days will be pretty warm and hopefully a sea of Mud, the same conditions that almost ceased the German and Russian forces from fighting with Armor during the Spring and Fall.

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  • 2 weeks later...
32 minutes ago, Cpl Steiner said:

If Russia's intention is to simply move into the breakaway republics and hold them, then mud presumably is to their benefit, no?

Yes if Ukraine wanted to try and take them back. The reality is that Ukraine was and is not in anyway capable of taking back their land vs the full might of Russia. 

Especially now with all the Russian troops on their borders. 

All Putin is doing is a bit of theatre and solidifying what was in reality the situation already. 

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What are your thoughts on a no fly zone? Everyone knows sanctions don’t affect tryrants. 
 

Do we need a super quick Black Sea patch with new equipment updates? Or is Russian equipment up to date/close enough? Can mods make up the difference?

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1 hour ago, Holien said:

All Putin is doing is a bit of theatre and solidifying what was in reality the situation already. 

That would depend in which borders end up recognizing both republics. In their current ones, or in the ones they claim? There has been a lot of discussion about this, and for now Russian officials have been a bit ambiguous about it: 

However, the leaders of the republics claim that they have been recognized in their claimed borders:

https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1496110612862095366

Of course, claiming the totally of the Oblasts would mean either that the Ukranians must withdraw totally from the territory they control (That is not going to happen), or well, direct confrontation.

Also considering that, from a strategic point of view, if the situations ends as it is, it would have been a gigantic blunder for the russians. As of right now, they have just made official a situation that was already de facto the same. Ukraine is forever going to be outside there sphere of influence, the EU and NATO gets out of this stronger and generally more united, and its economy its going to take a hit due to sanctions for no gain. Due to this, I doubt that this is the endgame of all this. Getting the rest of the territory claimed by the republics will not really change this, by the way, except maybe in the sense that it would desastibilize the Ukranian goverment. Maybe that is the plan, to hope for a collapse of the government? I find it dubious, honestly, specially with western assistance.

Unfortunetly, due to this, I think that the most likely course of action for the Russians now is to start hostilities at full scale with the intention of securing the government of Ukraine. ( Well, if you watched the Putin adrees yesterday, if they decided to annex it downright I would not be surpirsed). Russian media is already claiming that Grads are being used against Donestk: https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1496107298158219267 , so yeah, the most probable conclussion to this is that somewhere between today and the next days some false flag incident happens and the green light for an invasion is given.

At least that is how I see the situation. We will see.

 

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2 minutes ago, Probus said:

Do we need a super quick Black Sea patch with new equipment updates? Or is Russian equipment up to date/close enough? Can mods make up the difference?

Nope. Sort-of. No.

CMBS is set in 2017, and there's more to be gained from respecting that setting than speculating on a near-future one - there's more information available, for a start. Whether there will be changes in the 2014 TO&E to reflect the reality of 2017 Russia is a different story - that happened with CMSF 2, certainly.

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For a country to invade and control another the loss in life and continued economic cost would be beyond most countries ability, especially if the local population of the invaded country does not want you there.

If you have the ability to install a puppet government and the majority of the locals do nothing at best you have a continued drip drip of an armed insurrection guerrilla war to deal with. This will still entail too much of a cost.

If you have some specific aims like getting water to an important military base then you might make some limited land grabs to provide that vital resource. 

As for a no fly zone that is already in place just not for the good guys. Think seriously on how you enforce a no fly zone....

🙄

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1 hour ago, Holien said:

For a country to invade and control another the loss in life and continued economic cost would be beyond most countries ability, especially if the local population of the invaded country does not want you there.

If you have the ability to install a puppet government and the majority of the locals do nothing at best you have a continued drip drip of an armed insurrection guerrilla war to deal with. This will still entail too much of a cost.

If you have some specific aims like getting water to an important military base then you might make some limited land grabs to provide that vital resource. 

As for a no fly zone that is already in place just not for the good guys. Think seriously on how you enforce a no fly zone....

🙄

In my opinion, Putin did not need to recognise the republics in order to start a small scale operation in hopes of a landgrab in Kherson. If anything this situation has made it more difficult. The water problem, althought it still exist, have aliviated considerably since last year, is still a problem of course, but not as urgent as before.

There is of course cost to any war, but there are also costs for inaction. Both from an economic and a military point of view. In case of the later, the Ukranian army, even if completely shunned out of NATO, will still improve its capabilities (I mean, if anything they will probably put more money into weapon procurament if they do not get into NATO). Right now the Ukranian army has no deep strike capabilities, neither high quantities of anti-ship weaponry, neither modern anti-air systems; just to name a few examples. That will change in the following years, making the prospect of military intervention, AKA, the only leverage that Russia has over Ukraine, apart from the twins republics, which are mantained thanks to that hard power themselves (and well, it has just lost due to the recognitions); more costly. If the assumption in the Kremlin is that Ukraine its going to be a long term enemy of Russia, without counting wether they finally enter NATO or not, it might be decided that it would be better for them to start an invasion now than in the nearby future. A simple land grab would not change this reality, by the way.

Thats just from a military point of view, there are also economical and long term strategic reasons in relation to positioning towards NATO and China that might push Russia into this direction. Like I said before, we shall see.

 

 

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It would be interesting to analyze this situation like a chess game.  What would happen if Russia continues its invasion of Ukraine?

1) All EU cooperation with Russia ends.  Nordstream II is dead.  EU investors and Russian investors lose about $5 billion each.

2) Sanctions are imposed on Russia and any entity that assists Russia. That could mean:

a) All those Russians with homes and bank accounts in the west (London especially) are frozen and their kids who go to expensive private schools in the UK (or EU and US) are forced out.  

b) Any entity that assists Russia suffers sanctions.  ie:  If Russia tries to replace the income it gets from exporting gas and petroleum to the west by exporting to China, then China gets sanctioned - and China does far more business with the US than it does with Russia.  That could possibly hurt China big time.

c) EU has to import and pay for gas and petroleum products from the US to replace those currently received from Russia.

Overall result:  Big loss for Russia and China and both results are good for the US.

The risk...  If handled incompetently by the current US admin this could become the US version of UK's Suez debacle of 1956 - the moment when all international power pretensions that the UK (and France) had were crushed and it was recognized that the US had replaced those old empires.  In the current situation that could mean US world power being recognized as coming to an end and shifting to China.

 

Edited by Erwin
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47 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

Like I said before, we shall see.

Yep, the ball is with them, all we can do is see what they do with it.

As for Ukraine getting militarily stronger, sure they can and it will increase any price in blood and tears for anyone attacking them, but that is already a high price today, which a wise man would not risk paying unless he really wanted land. In the past there have been such men but it ended badly for them.

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27 minutes ago, Holien said:

Yep, the ball is with them, all we can do is see what they do with it.

As for Ukraine getting militarily stronger, sure they can and it will increase any price in blood and tears for anyone attacking them, but that is already a high price today, which a wise man would not risk paying unless he really wanted land. In the past there have been such men but it ended badly for them.

The question is how high the russians consider that cost. It doesnt matter if is true or not, if Russian high command assumes that its cost would be bearable, or that the cost of inaction would be higher, they would still act.

Also, we now have confirmation, Russia is going to recognize the republics at their full extent:

At the very least, there is going to be a limited war, thats certain now.

Edited by CHEqTRO
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10 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

At the very least, there is going to be a limited war, thats certain now.

Depends it takes two to fight...

Ukraine now has a choice to make, how many people to lose?

They wisely did not fight back when Crimea was taken by the little green men.

The decision now is to is it worth it to fight? Easy for us armchair generals to say "fight to the last person" when we can safely sleep in our beds tonight...

 

Edited by Holien
Grammar
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3 minutes ago, Holien said:

Depends it takes two to fight...

Ukraine now has a choice to make, how many people to lose?

They wisely did not fight back when Crimea was taken by the little green men.

The decision now is to is it worth it to fight? Easy for us armchair generals to say "fight to the last person" when we can safely sleep in our beds tonight...

 

He, it has nothing to do about wether its worth to fight or not for that strip of land or wether we feel safely saying that they should. Our opinions in this are irrelevant. Which is not irrelavant, in the other hand, is that a pullback of forces would be extrimely destabilizing to the state. Not just the possibility of a coup against Zelensky in result to that, you also have to account the fact that there is a big part of the population that is pro-ukranian, that would have to abandon their homes and esentially turn into IDPs. How are the Ukranians going to organize such an  evacuation? Just add to that, that it would esenteally mean a de facto recognitions of the republics and their constitutions, and in turn, damage Ukranian constitution and its sovereignety. It would be essentially be national suicide.

But not only that, the thing is that the russians are still be deployed along the Ukranian border. Even after all the trouble of leaving those areas, risking internal desestabilization, the russians could just invade anyway, with the big difference that its enemy has just humilliated itself, it has abandoned good defensive positions (althought being fair in the ocurrence of a full scale war, they would be somewhat irrelevant there in the Donbass, as the main thrusts of the russian army would be directed toward other areas), and esentially made itself weaker internally. If anything, due to the destabilization caused by this decision, the possibilities of a russian invasion would increase, as the cost of such invasion would be drastically lower.

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In addition to what I said earlier, I have to repeat myself, that getting half or the totality of the Donbass is still, strategically speaking, a defeat. Here you have Lavrov esentially aknowledging this in 2018: https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1496137602046562304

Also,  Putin has just esentially dropped an ultimatum to Ukraine with the following demands:

The three first points would be non-starters really, but its in the fourth point that you can see that he is not negotiating in good faith. There is no way that a sovereign state would, in pursuit of being neutral, demilitarise. Neutrality is enforced, just ask Switzerland. So yeah, its hard to not get to the conclusion that Putin wants to get Ukraine, either free or by war.

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1 hour ago, Erwin said:

c) EU has to import and pay for gas and petroleum products from the US to replace those currently received from Russia.

The USA isn't the only alternative source of hydrocarbons... Though I think most of the alternative sources are "privileged allies" of the US, so possibly the same thing, in effect.

 

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That would be too simple and inappropriate for Russia just to recognize these "republics" in existing limits. This would give Ukraine the opportunity just drop the ballast and hope for collapse of Russia in far future. But the goal of Putin was clearly pointed in his yesterday's address to nation. About recognition of LDNR he spoke less than 5 minutes at the end. All other time it was crazy manipulative and conspiracy flow about Ukrainin history with resume - Ukraine is artifical composition hostile to Russia, Ukraine is a threaten for Russia, Ukraine hasn't a right to exist like a state. His addres obviously was recorded for large-scale invasion explaination, but he decided to swallow own victim gradually like a boa. And he will start from Donbas, making formal case - recognition of LDNR in the limits of administrative boudaries. 

So, will be no fly zone, and the Eagles will not come. The West even can't decide what this was - invasion or incursion, either now time for "killing sanctions" or  need to wait, until Kyiv will be hummered by Russian missiles. Looks like we will fight one by one with hordes of Ivans. 

 

Edited by Haiduk
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57 minutes ago, womble said:

The USA isn't the only alternative source of hydrocarbons... Though I think most of the alternative sources are "privileged allies" of the US, so possibly the same thing, in effect.

Given the situation in Venezuela (its oil infrastructure remains, in effect, crippled thanks to a lack of western and domestic investment), and the US's long term failure to solve the Iran situation, the only two major sources which could cover the oil gap would surely be either North America (US & Canada) or the Saudis. IDK how much surplus unused productions the Saudis are currently sitting on, if it would be enough to get Europe over the short term bump in prices. But IMO the Saudis would have a lot to gain by opening up the floodgates and keeping global prices relatively low. If not prices will rise. As I recall the biggest impediment to North American production is its locked up in shale deposits which are expensive to explore and establish, most oil companies wont do it unless oil is over a certain price per bbl. If the Saudis cant, then global prices will rise to the point where North American producers can turn a profit and stabilize the market. The only alternatives for the EU would either be to back down on a big oil sanction, or turn to another unsavory regime (say, Syria) for an easement. The EU has before been very skeptical of US sanctions on Iran, with the collapse of the JCPOA I could see some horse trading behind the scenes for the EU, "Sanctions on Russian oil or Iranian. Your choice." I don't know the numbers off the top of my head, but I bet that Iranian oil could pretty much replace Russian in Europe at not much different a cost. 

Regarding Russian strategy, I tend to agree with @CHEqTRO and others who say that Putin is now paying a MAJOR cost for just occupying two republics who were, in effect, already his. At the minimum I dont see how he can avoid pushing forward to securing their aspirational borders. Even then that would be a major price to pay for a cost that seems pretty heavy. Were there any rumblings that the breakaway republics might negotiate with Kiev or abandon Russia? If all this had happened in the course of a few weeks I think the calculus would be different, but now the US has had months to organize and denounce Putin. I dont think a limited invasion makes the US look like warmongers or weak, rather it would make Putin look like he backed down under western pressure. And I wonder if Ukraine is going to be so willing to retreat from its long established defenses to let the Russians have more territory. A war of positions would, IMO, be much more beneficial to them especially if the hammer of troops on the other borders never comes for the Anvil of the breakaway republics. Better than to fight for every hamlet and trench, where Ukrainian troops already know the positions and the ranges, then open up a war of movement with a bigger enemy. All thats to say I think the stage is set for a much bigger rumble coming up. Putin needs to make this into a win, the US needs to prove to the world this isn't Suez, and needs to prove to China that it will face the same punishment in a Taiwan crisis. 

Meanwhile the people on the streets of Kiev are the ones who suffer. 

Edited by BeondTheGrave
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