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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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28 minutes ago, db_zero said:

whats TOS-1?

db_zero,

TOS-1 Buratino 220 mm MRL firing unguided rockets with thermobaric aka FAE (FuelAir Explosive) warheads. This system is on a T-72 tank chassis. In the video you can see the MRL, its reload vehicle, the MRLs dug in, rockets firing and rockets exploding. The blast and overpressure are the equivalent force of small nukes, but without the radiation hazards.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/russias-tos-1-buratino-rocket-launcher-lays-waste-enemies-196332

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited by John Kettler
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8 minutes ago, Phantom Captain said:

This would be such great news!

Unfortunetly they have backtracked their statement. Hopefully if they released such an statement is because they are about to finally eliminate all pockets of resistance inside the airport. The moment I see more information I will post it here.

5 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

The only angle I can think of right now is that he has somehow managed to penetrate the Ukrainian military and government and has cut a drug deal behind the scenes.  However, beyond being insulting to those Ukrainians who are currently dying for their country, this also raise the obvious question of "why do a full scale invasion act?"  I mean if he had sway inside the Ukrainian government why not pull that lever and stage a coup from the inside a la Crimea?  Cruise missiles and massive rocket bombardments do not demonstrate a sophisticated political warfare approach. 

So unless Putin has been dozing through the last 30 years of western misadventures or simply has been smoking his own supply and thinks "I will be different" because I ride bears on the weekend, this dance makes no sense.  This is the chapter Clausewitz never got to; "war is sometimes just plain dumb".

Or, like I said in an earlier post, either the long term economic/strategic conditions of its country have pushed him into this direction. Putin has always been a megalomaniac which despised the western world and saw the collapse of the soviet union (when I say soviet union, I mean the territory, not the ideology) as a disaster to be corrected. Yet it has only now decided to go ahead and attack the western world so fragantly.

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7 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

The only angle I can think of right now is that he has somehow managed to penetrate the Ukrainian military and government and has cut a drug deal behind the scenes.  However, beyond being insulting to those Ukrainians who are currently dying for their country, this also raise the obvious question of "why do a full scale invasion act?"  I mean if he had sway inside the Ukrainian government why not pull that lever and stage a coup from the inside a la Crimea?  Cruise missiles and massive rocket bombardments do not demonstrate a sophisticated political warfare approach. 

So unless Putin has been dozing through the last 30 years of western misadventures or simply has been smoking his own supply and thinks "I will be different" because I ride bears on the weekend, this dance makes no sense.  This is the chapter Clausewitz never got to; "war is sometimes just plain dumb".

According to the Chinese this is no invasion...🙂

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3 minutes ago, akd said:

If true, we need no further evidence that Russia cannot provide air support to troops at night.  Ukraine should exploit this ruthlessly and we should flood them with as much quality night vision gear as possible.

Unfortunetly they have backtracked the statement, we will have to wait. Thats something I am hopeful, that along all the Javelins and Stingers, some modern night vision equipment made its way into Ukraine.

Edited by CHEqTRO
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I dont think Putin is looking, like he use to. Rounder in the face, like he is on a strong cortisone treatment? Does he have a braintumor, or something? Thats when you got really strong cortisone treatment, before surgery! 

Just speculating. But if he has a grade 4 Glioblastoma, and only 6-12 months to live. Maybe he doesent think like the rest of us. Its now or never! Nukes? He dont give a ****! Scary if true! 

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Putin is a 69 yr old psycho/sociopath that has no regard or compassion for human life, rights etc. Imho, he likely sees this as his legacy/destiny and will continue to provoke the west (NATO) until they actually respond with arms. Probably when he pivots to take the Baltics after this campaign in Ukraine. ...Haiduk, have always appreciated your insightful posts on this forum; please stay safe and take care. Thank you BF for keeping this thread open. 

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Ref a remark made earlier that Putin's ultimate objective is to reconstitute the Soviet Union. That is incorrect. He has said explicitly he wishes to reestablish the Russian Empire. The Russian Federation national emblem is the Tsarist double eagle. If, arguendo, he decides to seize Ukraine outright, in whole or in part, it will be in fulfillment of that overarching strategic objective.

Regards,

John Kettler

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Just now, John Kettler said:

Ref a remark made earlier that Putin's ultimate objective is to reconstitute the Soviet Union. That is incorrect. He has said explicitly he wishes to reestablish the Russian Empire. The Russian Federation national emblem is the Tsarist double eagle. If, arguendo, he decides to seize Ukraine outright, in whole or in part, it will be in fulfillment of that overarching strategic objective.

Regards,

John Kettler

When we say reinstitute the Soviet Union, we mean its previous territory and influence. The Soviet Union had nearly the entirety of eastern europe, including Berlin (well some parts) under its domain. Thats more influence and power over europe (and the world) that the tsars could ever dream of.

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(Addendum to earlier post: I personally do not equate Iraq w this invasion, this is orders of magnitude different.  I was just saying what I expect Putin's propaganda to say)

I heard that Putin has been very isolated since covid hit, terrified of dying from it.  Maybe that's helping to make him bonkers.  cuz this is full on bonkers.  I sure hope this somehow leads to his downfall. 

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It seems th russians are going to push towards Mariupol either tonight or by tomorrow morning. Most likely trying to breaktrhough into Melitopol and meet with its forces in South Kherson. This would put the Ukranian forces in the Donbass in a precarious position, having its enemy taking their rear

Edited by CHEqTRO
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It may be a bit crass to mention but I wrote a scenario called "Neighbours From Hell" ages ago that you can still find on the internet if you search for it. The scenario is particularly topical now as it features a Separatist attack on a Ukraine-held village with Russian Spetsnaz assistance in the opening hours of the invasion. We are wargamers so hopefully nobody takes offense.

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The most interesting part. Is that the Russian Armys Elite: The 1st Guards Tank Army, containing: 4th Guards Kantemirovskaya Order of Lenin Red Banner Tank Division, 2nd Guards M. I. Kalinin Taman Motor Rifle Division, 6th Separate Tank Brigade, and 27th Separate Guards Sevastopol Red Banner Motor Rifle Brigade. Attacking Charkiw, has been halted by dead hard resistance!!! Can Ukrainian troops stop the 1st Guards Tank Army, they can stop everything Russia can throw at them ✌️

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2 minutes ago, Armorgunner said:

The most interesting part. Is that the Russian Armys Elite: The 1st Guards Tank Army, containing: 4th Guards Kantemirovskaya Order of Lenin Red Banner Tank Division, 2nd Guards M. I. Kalinin Taman Motor Rifle Division, 6th Separate Tank Brigade, and 27th Separate Guards Sevastopol Red Banner Motor Rifle Brigade. Attacking Charkiw, has been halted by dead hard resistance!!! Can Ukrainian troops stop the 1st Guards Tank Army, they can stop everything Russia can throw at them ✌️

I don't think that's realistic. This will be over in a couple of weeks. 

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Commmunication with Zmiinyi island garrison is lost, probably the island is seized.

I wonder why no one launches of Neptun AS missile. Too far to Zmiinyi? Impossibility of targeting? Or all launchers destroyed at morning strike?

Edited by Haiduk
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16 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

The same goes for Kharkiv, by the way:

The battle for Kharkiv will probably be one of the most important and biggest battles of this war. Hopefully the line holds long enough for the units fighting in the Donbass to stage a fighting withdrawal and avoid encirclement.

I watched this attack on a live feed.  Or one just like it.  It goes on and on and on. Terrifying.

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7DqNLmY.png

This is claimed to be Su-24s attacking the Antonov airfield at Hostomel late afternoon today, but it seems hard to believe by the possible explanations (other than simply being fake):

1. If Ukraine managed to get Su-24s up and cratered the runway, then holy crap, well done!

2. If it is Russian Su-24s, then they are dropping their bombs very close to the air field.

Or maybe it is from earlier during initial assault?

EDIT: probably from same source. Said to be Russian assault on the Antonov field. Note that fire raging in first photo here is mostly burned out in above.  Supports claim that the Su-24s bombing are from later in the day, not the initial assault.

fso8389.jpg

En5hLHK.jpg

6Nxs1Vu.jpg

Edited by akd
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6 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

That would not be very tasteful. Let's just agree to talk again in two weeks.

But I really belive, in the possibility of a Ukrainian victory! They probably will lose some ground. But Russian losses will be so big, that they have to stop. And it will be a frozen war, for a long time. With Putin always with a hand in front of the face, in every TV appearance. In shame, of the loss. That he refuses to admit!

So it was not a funny game "betting", I wanted to do. I was dead serious!  

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