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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


Probus

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On the prospect of the conflict spreading to engulf the Baltics and Poland: even if the other half* of the Russian army (and perhaps its Belarusian buddies) swept to glorious and swift victory before any help could be mobilised, there would certainly be an insurgency, with full support from other members, pending the mustering of sufficient force by the rest of NATO to drive the aggressors back on their heels.

The problem would be if China decided to get its aggressive ambitions under way in the South China Sea... that might divert enough resources to leave the Poles and the Balts unrelieved for a lonnng time.

* Is the force being pitched into the Ukraine adventurism all of Russia's first tier? I know they've been accumulating institutional experience in at least certain types of modern warfare in Syria and elsewhere in recent years; is that experience concentrated in certain formations, or more broadly spread?

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Looks like the general consensus is the Russian will overwhelm the Ukrainians. While initial reports are not to be relied on I've seen that 5 Russian helicopters have been shot down and dozens of Russian tanks and presumably IFV's have been destroyed or damages and Russia has not committed most of their troops.

If true or close to it, how sustainable over time is this for Russia?

People think and most Combat Mission players will fight to the last man, but from what I've gathered most combat units will lose most of their effectiveness after a small percentage of losses and any additional losses will cause a proportionately higher level of derogation in effectiveness.

If the above mentioned losses are true and concentrated in a relatively limited of units as part of a small proportion of the forces that can be committed then would that be something of concern and telling?

I would think that if Russia sustains a loss rate of 4-5 helicopters a day and dozens of AFVs over time that's going to raise some concerns for the Russian military and will that affect overall effectiveness.

As for dumping TOS-1s onto large urban areas-that would certainly cause a lot of backlash and wouldn't that just be counterproductive? Cause rubble that helps defenders, causes even more resolve to fight for Ukrainians? Not to mention that fact that what use would it be for Putin to capture and control a completely demolished city.

Edited by db_zero
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28 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

I don't think that's realistic. This will be over in a couple of weeks. 

Not sure what "over" looks like here.  I mean it could be a partitioned Ukraine with Russians holding Eastern and the capital, of course they then have a very pissed off Western "Free Ukraine" with a steady flow of weapons and fast-tracked application to join NATO.

If we are talking full control of the entire state right up to the Polish border, well I am betting that will take a much longer period of time, if ever, so long as the Ukrainians decide to keep on fighting an insurgency.  Although, I would be lying if I did not confess to a very high level of professional curiosity at to how this is going to go down on the conventional side. 

What we know is likely in two weeks:

- Russia will be a diplomatic and economic pariah.

- NATO will be seriously re-invigorated now that it has a "real" adversary to point at.

- Europe will be politically united, or at least as united as it gets.  Not sure how long it will last.

- US will likely "take the gloves off" in the political warfare arena.  So far the west has been pretty much defensive in this space but I am betting some old-school options are going to come back on the table. 

Any other ideas? 

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2 hours ago, BeondTheGrave said:

Also I dont understand why this bridge wasn't demolished the night of the attack. Seems like a major oversight, especially because it doesn't seem like Ukraine put up much of a fight south of the river line. 

Bridge like that could take couple hours to setup demolish charges. Unless Ukr engineer groups have something very large, the best they can do is to knock a portion of bridge into the river.    I doubt they can destroy the piers. 

Then the demolish team got to wait for approval to an demolish important bridge like this one. At the opening of the war , with Jamming, confusion and chaos everywhere. The guy sit in the command center could easily be cut off from a effective communication with the demolish team.  And then a platoon size Russian Combat Recce Patrol roll in....  

     

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4 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Not sure what "over" looks like here.  I mean it could be a partitioned Ukraine with Russians holding Eastern and the capital, of course they then have a very pissed off Western "Free Ukraine" with a steady flow of weapons and fast-tracked application to join NATO.

If we are talking full control of the entire state right up to the Polish border, well I am betting that will take a much longer period of time, if ever, so long as the Ukrainians decide to keep on fighting an insurgency.  Although, I would be lying if I did not confess to a very high level of professional curiosity at to how this is going to go down on the conventional side. 

What we know is likely in two weeks:

- Russia will be a diplomatic and economic pariah.

- NATO will be seriously re-invigorated now that it has a "real" adversary to point at.

- Europe will be politically united, or at least as united as it gets.  Not sure how long it will last.

- US will likely "take the gloves off" in the political warfare arena.  So far the west has been pretty much defensive in this space but I am betting some old-school options are going to come back on the table. 

Any other ideas? 

Other idea: Stuxnet next generation rewards program v2.0 will be allowed in the wild in Russia.

Edited by Lethaface
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6 minutes ago, womble said:

The problem would be if China decided to get its aggressive ambitions under way in the South China Sea... that might divert enough resources to leave the Poles and the Balts unrelieved for a lonnng time.

I think the calculation is that the fate of Ukraine will be a warning for Vietnam, Philippines and Indonesia. I wouldn't discard a move on Taiwan if the response to Russia's war of aggression turns out to be weak or ineffective.

I wouldn't be surprised either that Sweden and Finland ask to join NATO.

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3 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

Other idea: Stuxnet next generation rewards program v2.0 will be allowed in the wild in Russia.

To my mind that is kinda in that political warfare space (every sphere has its own terms).  Unless you are talking a cyber WME vs Russia, but I think if they were going to do that they would have already pulled the trigger.  I think in the cyber and subversive zones the west has been totally caught flat footed.  You want Putin to bleed heavy and maybe even lose? Conduct "non-attributable" cyber attacks on Russian C4ISR while they are in mid-operation (I actually pray to god we do).  I have no doubt the west has the capability, it is the will to go there that was missing.  The primary fear was one of "escalation" but I think that stinky barge has sailed.

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14 minutes ago, Armorgunner said:

But I really belive, in the possibility of a Ukrainian victory! They probably will lose some ground. But Russian losses will be so big, that they have to stop. And it will be a frozen war, for a long time. With Putin always with a hand in front of the face, in every TV appearance. In shame, of the loss. That he refuses to admit!

So it was not a funny game "betting", I wanted to do. I was dead serious!  

Well, I hope you're right. I hope the Ukrainians will fight like lions. I salute them all.

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Still not seeing devastating sanctions, Gasprom, Oil and Gas industries were not hit and despite what seems like heated discussions, removing Russia from SWIFT is not on the table.

From what I can tell, despite the now hot war, gas is still flowing normally from Russia through Ukrainian pipelines on to the EU.

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10 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Not sure what "over" looks like here.  I mean it could be a partitioned Ukraine with Russians holding Eastern and the capital, of course they then have a very pissed off Western "Free Ukraine" with a steady flow of weapons and fast-tracked application to join NATO.

If we are talking full control of the entire state right up to the Polish border, well I am betting that will take a much longer period of time, if ever, so long as the Ukrainians decide to keep on fighting an insurgency.  Although, I would be lying if I did not confess to a very high level of professional curiosity at to how this is going to go down on the conventional side. 

What we know is likely in two weeks:

- Russia will be a diplomatic and economic pariah.

- NATO will be seriously re-invigorated now that it has a "real" adversary to point at.

- Europe will be politically united, or at least as united as it gets.  Not sure how long it will last.

- US will likely "take the gloves off" in the political warfare arena.  So far the west has been pretty much defensive in this space but I am betting some old-school options are going to come back on the table. 

Any other ideas? 

Don't discard the power of people and the internet. Protests, real truths, real information needs to be seen and spread all over. The information war, coupled with political and financial pressure can turn this in favor of Ukraine.

Stand with Ukraine!

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2 minutes ago, BletchleyGeek said:

The other "front" needs not be overlooked. Lots of diplomacy needed in SE Asia to for something like NATO.

Ah, now that is using the ol noodle.  Play the backfield and i.s.o.l.a.t.e.  This is all tricky because the "sum of all fears" here is not some weird WW3 scenario - which is plenty scary but more remote - it is a Russia goes all haywire (again) when someone puts a bullet in Putin and we have a possible collapse of a nuclear power (again).  Last thing anyone needs is a nuclear weapon enabled Russian Civil War.

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2 minutes ago, riptides said:

Don't discard the power of people and the internet. Protests, real truths, real information needs to be seen and spread all over. The information war, coupled with political and financial pressure can turn this in favor of Ukraine.

Stand with Ukraine!

And this is political warfare in the 21st century.

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1 minute ago, White2Golf said:

I was thinking more on the line of their expectation of being employed by Russian forces.  Persistent agents could be used for area denial.      

That would be crossing a rather significant line, wouldn't it?! There would be literally no way back for Putin if they did that, and the eternal enmity of Ukraine and its peoples would be a consequence not conducive to a durable puppet regime, if that's their goal. I mean, they had a puppet with the Old Guard, didn't they? And that didn't survive, even without the fire that using chemical warfare on Ukrainian soil would put in the bellies of UKR patriots.

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8 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

What we know is likely in two weeks:

- Russia will be a diplomatic and economic pariah.

- NATO will be seriously re-invigorated now that it has a "real" adversary to point at.

- Europe will be politically united, or at least as united as it gets.  Not sure how long it will last.

- US will likely "take the gloves off" in the political warfare arena.  So far the west has been pretty much defensive in this space but I am betting some old-school options are going to come back on the table. 

Any other ideas? 

I think Finland and Sweden will seriously consider NATO application. I bet this year the NATO tripwire will reach across the Baltic to Helsinki. Georgia and Russia's other neighbors are interesting, I'd bet Tiblisi is convulsed with alternating waves of relief and panic. Relief its not them, panic that theyre next. I wonder if NATO will soften their stance on applicants with territorial disputes and welcome Georgia in. 

Broadly this seems like a definitional moment. I dont think people will keep sitting on the fence with Russia. After this either youll be all in for daddy Vladdy or hell be the devil and brother to Stalin. I think this has a lot of implications for domestic US politics, but in deference to our Elvis and the other longsuffering moderators I think this is a subject best avoided. Suffice to say I dont think anyone is going to complain next year when the DoD gets a big budgetary boost. 

I also wonder what this is going to do for nonproliferation. It seems to me that every country which, since the end of the Cold War, has abandoned their nuclear program has become prostrate to a superpower. If your South Korea, Japan, Iran, or Saudi Arabia, how much does this resemble your current situation? Korea may trust the US to maintain its nuclear umbrella, but I bet that Iran sees themselves in Ukraines plight. Midsized and regional powers either need a hard superpower guarantee or they need nukes of their own. Nothing else seems to matter. 

Controversial: I think this reduces the risk of a Taiwan invasion. Putin is paying a price and @The_Capt I think your right. Hes going to have a hard long term problem to solve in Ukraine, probably hes just created a generational conflict in the region. I think regardless of where we were on this issue last week, today China will not be able to 'get away with one' thanks to what Putin has done. Sanctions may or may not scare China that much, though I suspect they actually are. Keep in mind just how tied together the Chinese and western economies are. How much Chinese citizens seem to love western media. But even if theyre willing and able to withstand the economic blow, a flood of American weapons into Taiwan would be a huge problem for China. If the only way to take the island is to fight street by street, house by house, is Taiping really worth it? 

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For some reason I think that while China talks tough on China, it's just talk. Its also very risky. Amphibious operations are the most difficult to pull off. Taiwan only has a few beaches suitable for sea invasion and they are atrocious terrain for any invader. It heavily favors the defender. 

Any invasion would require serious preparation and as already demonstrated by events in Ukraine and serious preparation will be detected.

It would also probably have to be a large sea invasions as I doubt a airborne invasion alone would be sufficient. The naval forces available from the US and allied's  would be a formidable force and China would have to gain and maintain complete air and sea dominance.

The biggest threat to that IMO is the modern nuclear and conventional attack submarine. It wouldn't take much to serious disrupt a naval invasion from China.

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