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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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Russians captured Nova Kahovka, there is unkown with a battle or our troops just withdrew

Captured Russians near Kharkiv 4th Guard tank division

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Russian tanks and MTLB, destroyed near Kharkiv, and looks like our BTR-4 is burning

 

Edited by Haiduk
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8 hours ago, akd said:

Dawn now, and the tanks are rolling:

 

That this is a road march is immediately apparent from the fact the tanks are not only unbuttoned but have crew exposed. Standard practice was in the GPW and remains to this day, buttoning the tanks when in the assault. If you doubt this, just go look at all the video of the Tank Biathlon, Army Day, winter combat exercises and more. When the tanks are attacking, they're buttoned up. Tanks conducting recon will be unbuttoned. Would also note the acute lack of separation between the tanks in march column, which is typically 25-50 meters. This tells me they're sacrificing vulnerability if attacked in order to get more tanks forward as fast as possible.

Regards,

John Kettler

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Ref OSINTtechnical posted trucker video of destroyed armor column, confirm 4 x BMP-2 destroyed. Positive ID.

On a separate note, IF we trust the claimed geolocation, the Russians had, as of the time of the reporter's post, AFVs 130 kms inside Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1496794231763255297/photo/1

Video shot near the same road sign unambiguously reveals the passage of positively IDed Russian AFVs: BTR-80 and Typhoon MRAP, as well as some  twin cab military pickup truck if that's the right term, and a possible command vehicle (box body van) in white, preceded by a white minivan with darkly tinted glass throughout. For sure, this column is Russian. Of note is that the large AFVs sport what has to be the the ID marking for this operation, a large white Z. You can see this same marking in the still of a T-72B-3 with overhead slat armor, which has it on the turret side and upper glacis plate. By contrast, other imagery from below source COUPSURE, shows claimed Russian AFVs entering Ukraine from Belarus instead have a white circle outline. Hope I said that right. Since I know of no case in which the Soviets or Russians have ever used two ID markings in the same op, seems to me that this could well be a distinctly Belarusian ID marking. That said, this is an argument by analogy, since I have precisely zero knowledge of Belarusian Army operational identification marking practices.
 

https://twitter.com/pmakela1/status/1496781698280865794/photo/1

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited by John Kettler
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This invasion, or whatever styling people may wish to use instead, came as a shock to someone used to seeing a more or less constant array of alarmist false Ukraine invasion stories online and even more outrageous videos, one of which claimed a NATO destroyer had been sunk by a RBS-56 cruise missile. The problem? The RSM-56 BULAVA is tha-state-of-the-art MIRVed SLBM on the also latest BOREI-class SSBN!

Truly did not expect Russia would invade, but would note that the correlation of forces was deteriorating over time against Russia, as clearly evidenced by the massive influx (2000+) of ATGMs from no fewer than three countries (US (Javelin), UK (NLAW, LI (Javelin)). Would further note that using protracted combat exercises to wear down the prospective foe, then standing down (to reduce enemy vigilance) before conducting a surprise attack was and is a standard tactic from both the Soviet and Russian playbooks.

My heart goes out to Ukraine and her people, but it is also my fervent wish that none of our CM flock and dear ones in the current or possibly expanded combat zone to come is harmed, or worse, killed. Before it's all said and done, this will be a tragedy on a host of fronts. The only questions are how severely, in how many ways, for how long and at what costs in limbs, life, infrastructure, homes and more?

Regards,

John Kettler

 

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A turkish vessel was attacked by Russian forces some minutes ago it seems.

Also, unfortunetly, it appears Russian armored formations have been able to cross the Dnieper around Kherson city:

Nevertheless, it seems that the Ukranian Army its holding its ground around Kharkiv. Suppossedly, 15 tanks were destroyed north of Sumy.

EDIT:

There is fighting reported in the Chernobyl area:

 

Edited by CHEqTRO
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The_Capt,

UA General Staff has officially reported Kalibr strikes, but the headlines people are writing are somewhat misleading, because the official statement doesn't say 30 missile strikes by Kalibr, just 30 attacks via a number of listed means. Kalibr conventional land attack warhead is 450 kg unitary HE, with a CEP of a 3 meters. Haven't seen footage of cruise missiles in combat since we saw then on CNN live during Gulf War I.

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3411535-general-staff-russians-has-fired-more-than-30-kalibr-missile-strikes-mlrs-artillery-uses-aircraft.html

Regards,

John Kettler

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CHEqTRO,

I see in the video of the Russian crossing of the Antonovsky bridge that they have done two things I fully expected to see: 1) they have greatly increased vehicular separation, and, 2) the tanks shown (granted, a whole two) are definitely Buttoned.

As for the attack on the Turkish ship, if true, that is definitely the basis for invoking Article 5.

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited by John Kettler
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From my limited point of view, it seems strategically foolish of Putin to do this.

He might hope to install a friendly/puppet regime in Ukraine and keep them out of NATO for the foreseeable future, but there's nothing that strenghtens an alliance's resolve as an attack by an external enemy.

Support and funding for NATO will strongly increase, I think.

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@John Kettler, you just posted an entire twitter thread into the forum.  Please stop unless you know what you are doing. Also the Bayaktar footage you are described was a repost from Syria, i.e. misinformation.  You can go ahead and delete the rest, especially since I think it includes unedited footage of a dead Ukrainian soldier.

Edited by akd
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3 minutes ago, Kraft said:

2 TB2s have been shot down, I hope the rest faires better against the invaders

Supposedly 4, if we go by Russian sources. However, as this user puts it, thats not too bad of a thing. If anything, it seems that a good chunk of the Ukranian air force was able to survive the initial missile salvo. The battle for the skies is still not fully decided:

 

Edited by CHEqTRO
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In reference to my prevoius post about the Dnieper crossing, it seems that the South Kherson region was lost to the invaders. Considering the geography, that was to be expected honestly, the dangerous bit was the succesful crossing of the Dnieper. If they are able to keep pushing, they could start threathening Mykolaiv and Odessa (There would be most likely an amphibous assault in that case, to support the land invasion)

 

Edited by CHEqTRO
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30 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

CHEqTRO,

I see in the video of the Russian crossing of the Antonovsky bridge that they have two things I fully expected to see: 1) they have greatly increased vehicular separation, and, 2) the tanks shown (granted, a whole two) are definitely Buttoned.

As for the attack on the Turkish ship, if true, that is definitely the basis for invoking Article 5.

Regards,

John Kettler

The ship attacked is the bulk carrier YASA JUPITER. It appears to be Turkish owned but flagged out of the Marshall Islands. Its crew is made up of 8 Turks, 11 Filipinos, and 11 Ukrainians. It seems to still be sailing and is on route to Romania still, according to the report. 

https://www.ntv.com.tr/turkiye/karadenizde-turk-gemisine-bomba-isabet-etti,ZxeLwCi9Q0CSvP4eYpy3NQ

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