John Kettler Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 2 hours ago, Holman said: I've been glued to the news all day. Today I've got huge respect for the Ukrainian people and for the Russians protesting Putin's aggression at home. One minor little thing: A couple of times I've seen pictures of Russian tanks with slat armor (maybe even former bed frames) welded to the TOP of the turret. It looks goofy, but I assume it's an attempt to defeat Javelins and other top-blast ATGMs. Does it work? And will we have to endure the sight of it in CM? Holman, This has been discussed before in several threads. The simple truth is that a) the answer is complicated, and b) we have no direct combat reporting on Ukrainian top attack ATGMs vs the overhead armor, which has been seen in a considerable array of configurations. The only live fire test I know of was done by, imo and others, the UA more as a feel good demo rather than a proper live fire test against either the combat loaded intended target or a credible stand-in. Putting a tank turret of unknown, but apparently dilapidated to an unknown extent, atop a BTR hull, then fitting some sort of overhead slat armor hardly represents a credible for a live fire. Nor do we truly know what the UA used as the weapon, for there is no continuous footage of the supposed event, as contrasted with the live fire Javelin test against a combat loaded T-72. Regards, John Kettler 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BletchleyGeek Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Kettler Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 45 minutes ago, arkhangelsk2021 said: I doubt they would still be court divisions, if only for the reason Russia probably can't afford to "leave out" two entire divisions made of high quality personnel in this day and age. On the other hand, you can't really say whether the Ukrainians are doing a good job or not, or if the Russians suck or not, without even a listing of the Ukrainian units facing off 1st Guards Tank Army, or some indication of how 1st Guards Tank Army is arrayed, or what losses the Ukrainians took while halting. archangelsk2021, Those are excellent points you made, starting with the notion the two named divisions may, in fact, be properly trained combat units. I do know that at least elements of Kantemirovka have done live fire training on the Poligon at Alabino, near Moscow. Find your economic counterpoint intriguing. Your further comments on we don't know enough about the forces involved and their combat effectiveness to draw any informed conclusion. Regards, John Kettler 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Kettler Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Ref prior comments about the Ukrainian's failure to rig their bridges for demo and destroy them timely, would've thought a war alert in Ukraine would've triggered orders to block runways and taxiways at all airports and airbases able to accommodate Il-76s. This would've provided a huge measure of protection. Regards, John Kettler 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckdyke Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Back in 1994 they made a silly decision. Now all the west can come up with is sanctions. Would Russian have jumped into this adventure if Mutual Assured Destruction would have been on the cards. It may be the reason Israel still exist even when they are not supposed to have any. Ukraine, Nuclear Weapons, and Security Assurances at a Glance | Arms Control Association 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Kettler Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Judging from this photo set om Girkin's Twitter, someone's Su-24 went down and was destroyed. The only tactical aircraft I know of operated by both sides with such a large and long nose somewhat flattened at the rear is the Su-24, and other pics clearly shows aircraft debris, not a missile's tail fin. Equally, that is plainly a jet engine and not a rocket motor in one pic. Regards, John Kettler 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Kettler Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Girkin posted a pic of a Russian convoy moving at glacial speed. It consists of fuel trucks, covered trucks and covered trucks with trailers. Unfortunately, the video link won't copy. Am not about to risk posting an entire thread! Regards, John Kettler 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arkhangelsk2021 Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 (edited) The Russian offensive doesn't seem to be going too poorly. The Western prong is about halfway towards Kiev, and the Ukrainians are blowing bridges. Edited February 25, 2022 by arkhangelsk2021 Change to Imgur for hotlink 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
borg Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 So - let me get this straight - the Russians are moving straight to central Kiev, liquidate their president , and the world - frankly , is just watching ? I cannot believe this 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
melm Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 When US invaded Iraq in 2003, the world was watching too. Damn, can the great powers in this world just stop doing such things? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoff-Ludumpress Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Ukraine is at least missing one su-27 and by the look of this canopy it was raked by MG fire. https://photos.app.goo.gl/WBZKTCt6tZ5knW9n6 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Kettler Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 (edited) This is a fine example of the uninformed doing military reporting. You'll have to check for yourselves, since the video link weouldn't copy, but what it really shows are Mi-8/Mi-17 transport helos salvoing IRCM flares. JOE RICH #StayAlert @joerichlaw Replying to @andreivaitovich This video from Ukraine shows Russian ground-attack helicopters firing indiscriminately at people around the reservoir in Vychhorod, which supplies Kyiv’s citizens with water - it’s just 20km from the capital. ELINT News has a video of a destroyed or abandoned UA tank column near Kherson. It has IDEd them as T-64 BVs. Unfortunately, the blasted link won't copy. Adding insult to injury, the way the video works when you pause it is the screen goes black, ruining the ability to inspect a specific frozen image! The closest solution is to go into settings and set the speed at o.25. This unambiguously shows the ID, based on known T-64BV pics, is correct. Per the caption, this was shot at 7:15 this morning of Feb 24. The ones in the video look just like this one. Regards, John Kettler P.S. Have revisited previous pic of presumed Su-25 vertical stabilizer and decided I was wrong, but I can't make it work, either, as being from a Su-24. My pattern recognizer may be off because of info overload, but for now am stumped. P.P.S. Girkin also has a video showing an abandoned Typhoon, which is shown surrounded by all manner of Ratnik gear, including body armor, and is wide open, allowing full view of both the. cab and passenger compartment. ZEro info provided as to location. Edited February 25, 2022 by John Kettler 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arkhangelsk2021 Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 (edited) Russians might have made it into Melitopol: and as of two hours ago may have reached some suburb of Kyiv: Edited February 25, 2022 by arkhangelsk2021 Added progress towards the capital. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arkhangelsk2021 Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Quote Feb. 25, 2022, 1:36 a.m. ET39 minutes ago 39 minutes ago Marc Santora Reporting from Lviv, Ukraine Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, accused Russia of targeting civilian areas with rocket attacks on Friday morning, including in the capital, Kyiv. “They say that civilian objects are not a target for them,” he said in a televised address. “It is a lie, they do not distinguish in which areas to operate.” Zelensky said that “in most directions the enemy was stopped, the fighting continues. The purpose of this attack is pressure, not only on the government, but on all Ukrainians.” From NYTimes. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CHEqTRO Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 (edited) 20 minutes ago, arkhangelsk2021 said: Russians might have made it into Melitopol: and as of two hours ago may have reached some suburb of Kyiv: They took it yesterday. There was news of a possible Ukranian counterattack there but I have not more information about its resolution. As for good news, it seems the Antonivsky Bridge over Kherson city (the one I posted yesterday which showed Russian units crossing) is back on Ukranian hands (The reports about Russian troops in Mykolaiv were also false): Simultaniously, the Ukranian army was able to hit the Millerovo Airfield in Rostov, Rusia. Casualties and damage unknown: Now, it seems that the russians are pushing hard towards Kyiv. Heavy fighting reported, with heavy russian casualties around Hostomel: It seems that they are going to try push into the center of the city today. They supposedly are taking ukranian equipment and changing uniform: Edited February 25, 2022 by CHEqTRO 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CHEqTRO Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Melitopol reportedly is back on Ukranian hands. The danger right now is the situtation around Kyiv, were is possible that one russian armored column is actually breaking throught Ukranian defensive lines. However, if they keep pushing without support they will eventually get encircled and destroyed, so I do not know whats the plan with rushing only one column into the city center. A propaganda victory? They hope for more breakthroughs? Maybe they think the Ukranian high officers will surrender if they see an unsopported column at its doorstep? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arkhangelsk2021 Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 12 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said: Melitopol reportedly is back on Ukranian hands. The danger right now is the situtation around Kyiv, were is possible that one russian armored column is actually breaking throught Ukranian defensive lines. However, if they keep pushing without support they will eventually get encircled and destroyed, so I do not know whats the plan with rushing only one column into the city center. A propaganda victory? They hope for more breakthroughs? Maybe they think the Ukranian high officers will surrender if they see an unsopported column at its doorstep? Here are my impressions on this. This is actually a stereotypical product of operational art. The goal of this whole operation is not The Entire Country, as many seem to believe. Kyiv is the main strategic objective and the target of two operational axes - one east and one west. All the other axes are diversionary on Nice-to-Have objectives. Would it be nice to have Kharkiv? Yes. Would it be nice to have Melitopol? Why not? Maybe a coastal city or two? But Kyiv is the one they really want. While everyone is celebrating on every Russian plane downed, every little reverse, what's happening is that Ukrainian forces are stretched thin, not only in width, but in depth - the volume of Ukraine is being used to reduce the force densities Russian forces will have to face. For example, in trying to get rid of one Russian airborne (foot) company, two elite brigades were drawn in (4th Rapid Response and 45th Spetznaz. If they could have been sent against the Russian columns, they might have kept the Russians out of Kyiv at least for another day or two. Now the West column is starting to snake into Kyiv. That's why as Zelensky observes a lot of Russian attacks are stopping though the total Russian casualties is still less than 500 (at least as estimated by the British). They already achieved their minimum goals. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
melm Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 (edited) On the contrary, I don't think Kyiv is the vital target, but the eastern region of Dnieper. The most desired region is the southern part of eastern region to link Crimea with Russia territory and expand two tiny separate repulics. Edited February 25, 2022 by melm 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aragorn2002 Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Our 'reliable' reporter in Moscow, dbsapp@, is awfully silent after all his Putin propaganda. Is he banned or is his job done? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CHEqTRO Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, arkhangelsk2021 said: Here are my impressions on this. This is actually a stereotypical product of operational art. The goal of this whole operation is not The Entire Country, as many seem to believe. Kyiv is the main strategic objective and the target of two operational axes - one east and one west. All the other axes are diversionary on Nice-to-Have objectives. Would it be nice to have Kharkiv? Yes. Would it be nice to have Melitopol? Why not? Maybe a coastal city or two? But Kyiv is the one they really want. While everyone is celebrating on every Russian plane downed, every little reverse, what's happening is that Ukrainian forces are stretched thin, not only in width, but in depth - the volume of Ukraine is being used to reduce the force densities Russian forces will have to face. For example, in trying to get rid of one Russian airborne (foot) company, two elite brigades were drawn in (4th Rapid Response and 45th Spetznaz. If they could have been sent against the Russian columns, they might have kept the Russians out of Kyiv at least for another day or two. Now the West column is starting to snake into Kyiv. That's why as Zelensky observes a lot of Russian attacks are stopping though the total Russian casualties is still less than 500 (at least as estimated by the British). They already achieved their minimum goals. Nah, the intention of taking quickly Kyiv is to have some pro russian politician sign a capitulation agreement and have some legitimacy. It seems that Western Ukraine its going to be left "independent" (That would depend of how the push on Kyiv goes of course). If anything it shows a bit of deseperation. There is no indication that the Ukranian army will stop fighting in case of the fall of its capital. The Ukranian high command will keep operating from Lviv. On the contrary, taking the eastern parts of their country in a quick manner would have mean the encirclement and anhilation of Ukranian forces there, plus a big loss to the economy potential of Ukraine, even if Kyiv holds, probably forcing the Ukranian goverment to accept peace. Right now the attack on Kharkiv is as relevant strategically to the russians as the attack towards Kyiv About the push on Kyiv, the russian as of now have only taken the open spaces north of the city. The Ukranian army was never going to hold onto those. The danger is now if they are able to bypass the suburbs and encircle the city. However they will start facing heavier resistance the closer they get to urban areas. Also, about the celebration of downed airplanes, its important to remember that Russia has not the economy to replenish quickly modern equipment. Any losses they suffer to their arsenal are important in the long term. Also, it shows that both the Ukranian air force and its air defenses are still operative, which a lot of people thought, me included, that they were going to be destroyed on the first day of the offensive, but there they are. Also russian casualties are definitively higher than 500 ( counting KIA, WIA and MIA) 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CHEqTRO Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Also, there is a chance that the attack on the Millerovo airbase was done by TB2 drones and not by Tochka-U missiles. If this is confirmed, the russian army REALLY needs to look into the capabilities of its air defence (Either that, or maybe the TB2 is just that good or/and the Ukranians really know how to make good use of them) 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
melm Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 7 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said: Also, there is a chance that the attack on the Millerovo airbase was done by TB2 drones and not by Tochka-U missiles. If this is confirmed, the russian army REALLY needs to look into the capabilities of its air defence (Either that, or maybe the TB2 is just that good or/and the Ukranians really know how to make good use of them) TB2 is just a tactical UAV and the load is small. I doubt that they've been used to bomb the airbase. If they were used, the destruction it could inflict is minimal. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Kettler Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, arkhangelsk2021 said: Russians might have made it into Melitopol: and as of two hours ago may have reached some suburb of Kyiv: archangelsk2021, if that's indeed Melitopol, then the Russians have assuredly made it there, for those are Tigrs and bear the Z ID marking Russia is using for this invasion. Regards, John Kettler Edited February 25, 2022 by John Kettler 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CHEqTRO Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 (edited) 4 minutes ago, melm said: TB2 is just a tactical UAV and the load is small. I doubt that they've been used to bomb the airbase. If they were used, the destruction it could inflict is minimal. They could be used to attack exposed aircraft thought (probably the russians were not properly protecting them as they did not expect Ukranian retaliation), with more precision than the Tochkas. It would be interesting to know how many UAV participated if indeed this was an attack by the UAV. However, its more likely that its was carried by Tochkas, in that I agree. However I found interesting the possibility of the attack being carried by UAVs Edited February 25, 2022 by CHEqTRO 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aragorn2002 Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 On 2/23/2022 at 2:43 PM, The_Capt said: I am still waiting for @dbsapp to show up here and tell us it is all "fake news", at this point I am actually hoping he is right... He is awfully quiet. But not out of shame, I'm sure. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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