How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Vinnart]

Too hot, and a very sad day because it is the kind of heat the average person no matter where they are doesn't want.

Although I know this world event is not the type of thing Battlefront would want to gain interest in CMBS, but the only good thing hot to come out of this is I see is the title getting more notice if not only for the irony of it.

Prayers and wishing a quick peace to all the Russians and Ukrainians on this forum and in those countries. This is madness!

Edited February 24, 2022 by Vinnart

[Kraft]

Swift has suddenly dissapeared as possible sanction, what is needed? First nuke launch? Baltics in Putins hand? 

 

Lets not worry the economy with the death of thousands

Edited February 24, 2022 by Kraft

[Monty's Mighty Moustache]

1 minute ago, Aragorn2002 said:

And yet we, the West, are to blame. Divided and weak as we are, only interested in bigger economies and woke nonsense, while Putin prepared his moves, not even hiding it, but in plain sight. And it doesn't stop here. Mark my words, it's just the beginning. 

Quite right. I don’t know why anyone is reporting what Putin says anymore, the man never utters a word of truth (although his comments about denazification did raise a wry smile given he is the one who’s acting like a 1939 German dictator).

He’s been ignoring international law for years, poisoning people in broad daylight in western countries, and I am not surprised in the slightest that he has done this as it was on the cards in 2014 when they took Crimea. I’m only surprised it took this long for him to make his move. The man lives in the past.

MMM

[Splinty]

I wish there was a clear understanding of Putin's end goals. There is no way this ends well for him or the Ukraine. 

[The_Capt]

4 minutes ago, Splinty said:

I wish there was a clear understanding of Putin's end goals. There is no way this ends well for him or the Ukraine. 

Well that is the question isn't it?  I find it hard to believe that a man as cagey as he honestly believes:

1. He can have a short sharp war with another state that is now supported by the EU and NATO.

2. Conduct a clean regime change that the Ukrainian people will actually accept.

3. Pull back, re-normalize and go back to selling gas to Europe.  

So what is the plan here?

[Monty's Mighty Moustache]

6 minutes ago, Splinty said:

I wish there was a clear understanding of Putin's end goals. There is no way this ends well for him or the Ukraine. 

Rebuilding the Soviet Union would be my guess. It will be interesting to see if he tries it on with any of the former Soviet states who are now members of NATO. He has quite wisely targeted a country that is not a NATO member so now if NATO gets involved he can say “see, told you they were a threat”. 

MMM

[danfrodo]

with all due respect to my friend Aragorn (et al), I don't agree this is somehow the fault of the west from a military perspective.  No majority in any country in the west was ready to go to war over Ossetia or Crimea.  The only thing we could've done was sanctions.  And now Putin is warning us that he has nukes if we interfere. 

The choice for the west was get into WW3 or not over Putin's previous agressions.  So exactly what was the west supposed to do other than sanctions? 

Wokeness?  Really?  are we really talking about this absurd strawman when a megalomaniac is invading other countries?  This is all about Putin. 

[Commanderski]

14 minutes ago, Monty's Mighty Moustache said:

’m only surprised it took this long for him to make his move.

Nobody like Biden was president then.

[danfrodo]

I think The_Capt has it right.  But that's where Aragorn is right -- the west must never forgive Putin for this and keep on every possible squeeze until he's out of office.

[borg]

I hate to be the one to say it. but given so much talk and words by the west... whilst Russia entered a country, and started a war.. I think there is no stopping from trying to invade neighbours. What are the west waiting for? That another country belonging to NATO gets hit ? Have we come to that absurd level ? 

Im not sure whether this applies to modern warfare, modern combat - but the first hours/ day of a battle... are usually decisive ? 

I pray that this war ends now. and if not, that someone has the balls enough to end the war fast (without too much nukes, too much loss of life) 

[Holien]

3 minutes ago, Commanderski said:

Nobody like Biden was president then.

Didn't take long...

The Alt Right mob in town.

This thread is about Russian invasion of Ukraine any chance of keeping it that way? 

[danfrodo]

Well, if he invades NATO states, then he's got a war.  Ukraine not NATO.  But Putin is definitely teaching the west that there's a mad dog in the neighborhood.  What a stupid, insane f-ing move.

[Commanderski]

1 minute ago, borg said:

What are the west waiting for?

Too many years of counting on the US for military support and financial input for NATO defense. Trump stopped most of the money to NATO and only a few countries increased their defense budgets. 

Also there is a very lack of leadership now in the US and other countries are reluctant to do anything without US backing.

[danfrodo]

Well, if he invades NATO states, then he's got a war.  Ukraine not NATO.  But Putin is definitely teaching the west that there's a mad dog in the neighborhood.  What a stupid, insane f-ing move.

[BFCElvis]

4 minutes ago, Holien said:

Didn't take long...

The Alt Right mob in town.

This thread is about Russian invasion of Ukraine any chance of keeping it that way? 

Correct. Frankly, I think this is an important thread. So, I am loath to lock it. If people start going down that road I will just give them short vacations from posting, without prior warning, rather than lock it. 

[danfrodo]

Lack of leadership?  Biden's been calling out that invasion was imminent for weeks and he is the one leading the response from the west.  And while short of war, it's a much more unified front than Putin (or anyone else) expected. 

Meanwhile, the guy who tried to destroy NATO while in charge has been praising Putin the last couple days as a 'genius'. 

 

[danfrodo]

oops, I submitted before i saw Elvis post.  Won't say another word on that, I swears it.

 

[Aragorn2002]

11 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Well, if he invades NATO states, then he's got a war.  Ukraine not NATO.  But Putin is definitely teaching the west that there's a mad dog in the neighborhood.  What a stupid, insane f-ing move.

Next chapter: Anschluss with White Russia. If that hasn't happen already. It's all so sickening predictable.

And I expect the Chinese will also master their courage with regard to Taiwan soon.

Edited February 24, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Probus]

I would like to thank all of you for being so civil and keeping this thread on track. I’m really proud of you guys. 
 

I really can’t believe this. It’s surreal. Putin has stayed one step ahead of the West up until today. I think that his actions today have overstepped his power to pull off. Although it looks like he is having many early successes, it’s going to turn into a quagmire for Russia. So many people are going to lose their lives for this megalomaniac. If NATO gets involved the loss of life will be shocking. A part of me, though, really wants NATO to come to the aide of Ukraine. 
 

Hopefully we can continue to arm and train the Ukrainians and make it too costly a war for Russia. 
 

Some of the fighting reminds me very much of CMBS. Instant death from out of nowhere. 

[akd]

Russian armor crossing over Dnieper bridge at Kherson under fire:

 

[danfrodo]

Yeah, Aragorn, that is really the right analogy.  Take over, hold rigged vote showing 98% of unkrainians are actually russians and done. 

 

[Doc844]

As Aragorn says above, next move white Russia.  I dont see any other choices from this course of action.  Putin takes Ukraine but wrecks the russian economy and ostracizes the country politically.  Further moves have to be coming and I believe this has somewhat been orchestrated in cahoots with China.

[Holien]

7 minutes ago, BFCElvis said:

Correct. Frankly, I think this is an important thread. So, I am loath to lock it. If people start going down that road I will just give them short vacations from posting, without prior warning, rather than lock it. 

Thanks Elvis for that appropriate response and approach to keep this open, I sincerely appreciate the team keeping this open. 

[danfrodo]

FOrtunately NATO did expand eastward so he can't attack the Baltic states w/o running into a real military, which I don't think he's gonna like facing

[John Kettler]

Holien,

When analyzing the Correlation of Forces, at a strategic level anyway, it isn't merely a force comparison. It includes such things as will to fight by the attacked and any potential supporters--at both a leadership and societal level. Weak, compromised or both opposition leaders, especially at the super power level, are a huge help to a nation planning to invade another.  Ref the US, consider the difference between JFK and JB--night and day to put it mildly, so for purposes of the discussion, you don't need to invoke Alt Right in order to contest the point. If you don't like that one, how about Chamberlan and Churchill in terms of their strength as leaders. Can you imagine how WW II would've gone for the British with Chamberlain as the wartime PM. 

danfrodo,

Putin doesn't have to invade in order to trigger Article 5, all he to do is attack a member nation, in any number of ways, including, these days, cyber attack and terrorism.

Regards,

John Kettler