How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

41 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

During assault of Hostomel airfield out troops used artillery, tanks and helicopters. Russian reinforced VDV compnay, which held airfield, who survived, dispersed and scattered in the fields

Haiduk, I really really really hope that is true!!!!!  You are saying Ukrainian forces expelled the russians from the airfield?  I hope that's true.  And may all your javelins and stingers fly true!

If Putin wins he gets a super hostile populace w a wrecked infrastructure and economy -- how the F is that worth all this murder and expense? 

[HUSKER2142]

3 hours ago, ncc1701e said:

What is the risk of Russia capturing javelins, analyzing them and developing their own or sending them to China?

It will only speed up the development no more, in 2020 the development of a domestic ATGM with an attack in the upper hemisphere began.

[Bulletpoint]

Today, the Danish parliament voted almost unanimously to increase our funding for NATO. What Trump couldn't do, Putin could.

[HUSKER2142]

I am ashamed of the actions of my government, I hoped to the last that there would be no war and this is just a bluff. Now anti-war rallies are taking place all over Russia, no one supports this war, there are a bunch of idiots who support it, but I assure you that the majority of the population is AGAINST THIS WAR. 
I honestly empathize with Ukrainians, but in no case will I rejoice at the death of our Russian soldiers! Young guys who could live a long life and do so much good in life, and not die for the sake of crazy ideas. 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 24, 2022 by HUSKER2142

[Vet 0369]

2 hours ago, womble said:

The problem would be if China decided to get its aggressive ambitions under way in the South China Sea... that might divert enough resources to leave the Poles and the Balts unrelieved for a lonnng time.

While my reply here is not about the current invasion, the U.S.  Commandant of the Marine Corps has recently deactivated USMC armor and long range artillery, and activated a new Battalion of Infantry in order to position the USMC for what he sees as the next theater of operations for the USMC; the South China Sea.

[Vacillator]

Just now, HUSKER2142 said:

I am ashamed of the actions of my government

It seems this is not about what 'common' people want in Russia or anywhere else, hopefully the people's views will make a difference in the coming days.  This is, I know, a lot to hope for.

[Vet 0369]

2 hours ago, Chibot Mk IX said:

Bridge like that could take couple hours to setup demolish charges. Unless Ukr engineer groups have something very large, the best they can do is to knock a portion of bridge into the river.    I doubt they can destroy the piers. 

Then the demolish team got to wait for approval to an demolish important bridge like this one. At the opening of the war , with Jamming, confusion and chaos everywhere. The guy sit in the command center could easily be cut off from a effective communication with the demolish team.  And then a platoon size Russian Combat Recce Patrol roll in....  

     

Just like at Remagen during WWII.

[Vet 0369]

2 hours ago, BletchleyGeek said:

I think the calculation is that the fate of Ukraine will be a warning for Vietnam, Philippines and Indonesia. I wouldn't discard a move on Taiwan if the response to Russia's war of aggression turns out to be weak or ineffective.

I wouldn't be surprised either that Sweden and Finland ask to join NATO.

Hmmm, “Continuation War Redux?”

[BletchleyGeek]

10 minutes ago, HUSKER2142 said:

honestly empathize with Ukrainians, but in no case will I rejoice at the death of our Russian soldiers! Young guys who could live a long life and do so much good in life, and not die for the sake of crazy ideas. 

Nothing to rejoice about other than seeing Russian citizens taking a political stance on the streets.

[akd]

13 minutes ago, HUSKER2142 said:

I honestly empathize with Ukrainians, but in no case will I rejoice at the death of our Russian soldiers!

I do not either, even though I have friends in Ukraine right now in a city being shelled and I don't even know if they are safe.  If some express the sentiment that this war must be made costly for Russia, it may be that they assume only dead sons being sent home will get through the wall of propaganda that supports the war in Russia. But Russians are going out into the street at significant risk to themselves to show that this may not be the case.  Hopefully the political costs will rise too high before the blood cost does for both Russians and Ukrainians.

[danfrodo]

49 minutes ago, HUSKER2142 said:

I honestly empathize with Ukrainians, but in no case will I rejoice at the death of our Russian soldiers!

I hope you don't get in trouble for posting that stuff, Husker.  I don't want any soldiers dying in this.  This is murder not just of Ukranians but also of Russian soldiers just doing what they are duty-bound to do.  There's only one Russian I want to see suffer, and that's the one that doesn't seem to understand that men his age should wear a shirt outdoors, especially when riding a horse.  Dude has some serious body image delusions.  Amongst his now more dangerous delusions.

[db_zero]

Those brave enough to be protesting in Moscow have real courage and fortitude given what the consequences will probably be if arrested.

I just saw an article about crowdfunding and other ways you can help support the Ukrainian military. Didn't want to post link as I don't know if it would be ok to do so.

 

It was on Quartz-How to donate to the Ukrainian Army.

[Holman]

I've been glued to the news all day. Today I've got huge respect for the Ukrainian people and for the Russians protesting Putin's aggression at home.

One minor little thing:

A couple of times I've seen pictures of Russian tanks with slat armor (maybe even former bed frames) welded to the TOP of the turret. It looks goofy, but I assume it's an attempt to defeat Javelins and other top-blast ATGMs.

Does it work? And will we have to endure the sight of it in CM?

[John Kettler]

Armorgunner

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Posted 6 hours ago

The most interesting part. Is that the Russian Armys Elite: The 1st Guards Tank Army, containing: 4th Guards Kantemirovskaya Order of Lenin Red Banner Tank Division, 2nd Guards M. I. Kalinin Taman Motor Rifle Division, 6th Separate Tank Brigade, and 27th Separate Guards Sevastopol Red Banner Motor Rifle Brigade. Attacking Charkiw, has been halted by dead hard resistance!!! Can Ukrainian troops stop the 1st Guards Tank Army, they can stop everything Russia can throw at them 

Armorgunner,

The Quote function isn't working for me, so this is the best I could do. Regardless, I  wouldn't pop the champagne just yet, because 4th Guards and 2nd Guards are what was known in Soviet (and likely current) times as "court" divisions. Despite all their fancy war toys, they are not true combat units. Their true purpose is to look superb, move with great precision and be scary in military parades, so am not at all shocked to find their attack failed. They are elite in terms of their political reliability,  equipment and personnel fills, not their combat capabilities. If you read Suvorov's The "Liberators", he talks directly about the se "court" divisions in the context of how they were viewed by his brother officers involved in the gigantic Operation Dnepr peep show.. Normally, these two divisions would be dedicated to the defense of Moscow,  but this isn't a general war, and they do have all the latest kit. Unless fundamental changes have been made since the collapse of the Soviet Union, though, they are not the highly capable units their, ahem, elite status would suggest.

Regards,

John Kettler

 

Edited February 25, 2022 by John Kettler

[John Kettler]

7 hours ago, CHEqTRO said:

The same goes for Kharkiv, by the way:

The battle for Kharkiv will probably be one of the most important and biggest battles of this war. Hopefully the line holds long enough for the units fighting in the Donbass to stage a fighting withdrawal and avoid encirclement.

And this, children, is why the Russians refer to artillery (to include rockets) as Bog Voiny (the God of War)!

Regards,

John Kettler

[John Kettler]

akd,

Time for a bit of military humor! That must be Antonov airfield. Why? Because that's an iconic (but engineless) An-2 sitting on the ramp! As originally built, with wooden props and very little metaal other than the engine, they made marvelous incidentally stealthy transports for inserting SO troops. This was cause for considerable concern in South Korea, because North Korea had some 400 of them and hordes of commando teams to put in them.

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited February 25, 2022 by John Kettler

[John Kettler]

akd,

That is absolutely a Su-24, but absent other info, there's no way I have to determine whose. Suspect, but don't know, that those IRCM flares were deployed by the departing Su-24. Since the wings aren't swept back, that aircraft isn't flying very fast, the opposite of what I'd expect to see if that was an aircraft attacking. In turn, this may lend credence to the notion the bird is Ukrainian and that the flares are directed against possible Russian MANPADS.



Regards,

John Kettler

Edited February 25, 2022 by John Kettler

[John Kettler]

6 hours ago, akd said:

They may be playing psyops games with isolated groups of Russians that have not been reduced. Given the situation, "scattered" seems an odd outcome.

Now, here is a lucky cab driver:

 

akd,

While I'm sure the cab driver counts himself fortunate not to have been blown to bits, I believe he's stuck on the wrong side of the river!

Regards,

John Kettler

 

[John Kettler]

Since Putin's rattling his nuclear saber, thought it worthwhile to note that current Russian strategic doctrine explicitly recognizes and embraces the idea of limited nuclear war. One such use includes the use of a nuclear weapon or weapons to restore the status quo (positive Correlation of Forces for Russia) in the face of a deteriorating combat situation. Such a strike needn't be done with strategic weapons, either.  The Russian Army has multiple tactical and operational-strategic means at its disposal.

Regards,

John Kettler

[db_zero]

Just saw report Ukrainians have recaptured Kyiv airport.

[arkhangelsk2021]

53 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

Regardless, I  wouldn't pop the champagne just yet, because 4th Guards and 2nd Guards are what was known in Soviet (and likely current) times as "court" divisions.

I doubt they would still be court divisions, if only for the reason Russia probably can't afford to "leave out" two entire divisions made of high quality personnel in this day and age. On the other hand, you can't really say whether the Ukrainians are doing a good job or not, or if the Russians suck or not, without even a listing of the Ukrainian units facing off 1st Guards Tank Army, or some indication of how 1st Guards Tank Army is arrayed, or what losses the Ukrainians took while halting.

[db_zero]

2 hours ago, Holman said:

I've been glued to the news all day. Today I've got huge respect for the Ukrainian people and for the Russians protesting Putin's aggression at home.

One minor little thing:

A couple of times I've seen pictures of Russian tanks with slat armor (maybe even former bed frames) welded to the TOP of the turret. It looks goofy, but I assume it's an attempt to defeat Javelins and other top-blast ATGMs.

Does it work? And will we have to endure the sight of it in CM?

The British have supplied the Ukrainians with NLAW systems. It has a different attack profile than Javelin from what I was able to see

[arkhangelsk2021]

6 hours ago, BeondTheGrave said:

Also IIRC Russian VDV is no joke, probably some of the best troops they have. I have also seen photos of Russian BMDs, though maybe at a different airport? If they had BMDs in Kiev, thats a stinging loss. To push them off an objective is no easy feat, obviously hard fighting is needed. Good planning and organization too. 

I must wonder if the main idea of the Russians is really to use the VDV to take a poke at a place the Ukrainians can't afford to lose.

It seems that the Ukrainians watched as the Russian paras came in and threw an elite-sounding brigade at it.

If it's true the Russians only committed a foot company, well, defeat was only a matter of time. But if it delays for example 4th RRB from reinforcing the front line, it might enable the Russians to make a successful attack where it might otherwise have failed, and thus this may be operationally a successful attempt.

Another interesting tweet:

 

Edited February 25, 2022 by arkhangelsk2021
Add another interesting tweet.

[John Kettler]

8 hours ago, db_zero said:

 

Looks like the general consensus is the Russian will overwhelm the Ukrainians. While initial reports are not to be relied on I've seen that 5 Russian helicopters have been shot down and dozens of Russian tanks and presumably IFV's have been destroyed or damages and Russia has not committed most of their troops.

If true or close to it, how sustainable over time is this for Russia?

People think and most Combat Mission players will fight to the last man, but from what I've gathered most combat units will lose most of their effectiveness after a small percentage of losses and any additional losses will cause a proportionately higher level of derogation in effectiveness.

If the above mentioned losses are true and concentrated in a relatively limited of units as part of a small proportion of the forces that can be committed then would that be something of concern and telling?

I would think that if Russia sustains a loss rate of 4-5 helicopters a day and dozens of AFVs over time that's going to raise some concerns for the Russian military and will that affect overall effectiveness.

As for dumping TOS-1s onto large urban areas-that would certainly cause a lot of backlash and wouldn't that just be counterproductive? Cause rubble that helps defenders, causes even more resolve to fight for Ukrainians? Not to mention that fact that what use would it be for Putin to capture and control a completely demolished city.

db_zero,

Based on what I've seen (many hours ago) the Russians have had a Su-25 shot down as well. The Red Army these days is not the 6.5 million man force deployed against the Germans during the GPW. Instead, it is tiny by comparison, resulting in far higher military and domestic impacts of materiel losses and especially troops. If some of the reports I've seen are believable, Putin is experiencing what have to be the largest protests against him ever. The home front is NOT behind him and does NOT want this war. Nor is this hidden away war in Afghanistan and almost no reporting; this is a war being reported in real or near-real time in many cases, with searing imagery of the destruction to people and property.

TOS-1 and TOS-1A are effectively delivery systems for zero-radiation micro nukes, and they are especially effective against troops in buildings and fortified positions. Everyone within a certain distance of any TOS-1 series thermobaric warhead rocket detonation will be killed outright, and survivors outside of that to a considerable difference wil be in dire shape, with injuries gradually reducing as a function of distance. The TOS-1 series is but one of the realization of the stated Red Army objective of achieving nuclear effects without radiation hazards direct and indirect. Instead of fighting for daya for a single building in Stalingrad, the TOS-1 series can obliterate all resistance within a defined target zone, while leaving a great deal more area around that severely damaged. And beyond that lies the zones of the stunned, eardrums ruptured and maybe concussed. At a tactical level, this is a revolutionary weapon system. A Russian BTG with attahed TOS-1 series support can likely do what a regiment or even a division couldn't do during the GPW when it comes to MOUT. Would further note that Schmel-M has similar capabilities, albeit on a microscopic scale by comparison.

Regards,

John Kettler

 

Edited February 25, 2022 by John Kettler

[danfrodo]

28 minutes ago, db_zero said:

Just saw report Ukrainians have recaptured Kyiv airport.

F- YES!! 

I just heard expert saying that some of this seems rather ill-planned, and believes Putin was figuring he was just gonna be bluffing everyone into doing his bidding.  Then he got caught in his bluff and decided, late, that he was actually going to attack but the detailed plans were somewhat hasty.  Just conjecture but does fit the operation market garden mess at the airport.  Or maybe Putin thought the Ukrainians would all just run away??