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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


Probus

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No any landings in Odesa and Mariupol. This is fake. 

Series of the strikes on military infrastructure even in western Ukraine. 

Russian troops seized border towns Milove and Horodyshche in Luhansk oblast. 

Reportedly 5 Russians jets and one helicopter shot down on Donbas, but no confirmation yet

Edited by Haiduk
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But Russia's defence ministry is quoted by Russia's Interfax news agency as saying that the "Ukrainian armed forces' air defence has been suppressed".

The ministry adds that "Ukrainian border forces put up no resistance to Russian units".

(BBC)

I assume that since this message comes from Russia, we can take it to mean that Ukrainian air force and border units are in fact putting up heavy resistance.

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Russian helicopters attacked border guard unit in Skadovsk, Kherson oblast, 3KIA. Border guards engaged Russians near Kopani and Ivanovo (or Ivanivka?) villages. Somebody wrote this is near the isthmus, somebody - this between Kherson and Mykolaiv. Maybe helicopter landing.

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25 minutes ago, Andy_101 said:

Hi Haiduk,

Where are you getting all this information?  

Our around-military twitters and official General Staff info. There are many fakes now

Ozerne airfield near Zhytomyr wiped out, 2KIA, 1 jet destroyed, but most of Air Forces planes were took-оff before attack and still safe

 

Edited by Haiduk
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3 minutes ago, STAGEMAN said:

soo ww3?

Doubtful.  Depends on whether military action remains within Ukraine borders?  I think that action from NATO / US against targets outside of Ukraine would almost certainly escalade into something much hotter.  My feeling is that this will be a protracted war confined within the borders of Ukraine, with Ukraine allies offering technical & practical support.  Very interested to hear the views from the many intelligent folk on these forum. 

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5 minutes ago, Andy_101 said:

Doubtful.  Depends on whether military action remains within Ukraine borders?  I think that action from NATO / US against targets outside of Ukraine would almost certainly escalade into something much hotter.  My feeling is that this will be a protracted war confined within the borders of Ukraine, with Ukraine allies offering technical & practical support.  Very interested to hear the views from the many intelligent folk on these forum. 

In my opinion it will depend of how hard is the russian economy and army hit by this invasion. If the russian high command assumes that the economical situation has deteriorated beyond sustainability, and they expect even further deterioration, they might decide to strike into Poland before the hardships of the economy start to materialize and before the conventional balance of forces in Europe changes in favor of NATO with the pass of time and attrittion takes its toll.

Also, I think that there is a possibility that we are going to see movement from NATO states, either acting by themselves (looking at you Hungary) or conjuntly, to secure Carpatho-Ukraine, East Galicia and Moldava/Izmail/Bukovina, which could result into confrontation with Russian forces.

We will see. Even with this, I think is still to early, and its more likely that the war remains localized that it evolves into a huge european confrontation. But the possibility is there, and the longer the conflict last, the bigger the possibilities.

 

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18 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

In my opinion it will depend of how hard is the russian economy and army hit by this invasion. If the russian high command assumes that the economical situation has deteriorated beyond sustainability, and they expect even further deterioration, they might decide to strike into Poland before the hardships of the economy start to materialize and before the conventional balance of forces in Europe changes in favor of NATO with the pass of time and attrittion takes its toll.

Also, I think that there is a possibility that we are going to see movement from NATO states, either acting by themselves (looking at you Hungary) or conjuntly, to secure Carpatho-Ukraine, East Galicia and Moldava/Izmail/Bukovina, which could result into confrontation with Russian forces.

We will see. Even with this, I think is still to early, and its more likely that the war remains localized that it evolves into a huge european confrontation. But the possibility is there, and the longer the conflict last, the bigger the possibilities.

 

 

I guess it depends on how NATO reacts, right?  NATO striking militarily against Putin would give him an excuse to continue pushing forward (as you say possibly into other countries like Poland, which is terrifying). I'm guessing that NATO & US are hoping Putin will burn himself out before things can reach a point of no return?

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50 minutes ago, Andy_101 said:

 

I guess it depends on how NATO reacts, right?  NATO striking militarily against Putin would give him an excuse to continue pushing forward (as you say possibly into other countries like Poland, which is terrifying). I'm guessing that NATO & US are hoping Putin will burn himself out before things can reach a point of no return?

Russia couldn't win a ground war against NATO, and NATO will not attack Russian forces directly.

I'm guessing Putin hopes for a fast war, with the end goal of regime change in Ukraine, installing a puppet government and then withdrawing.

Also I'm guessing the big question for NATO is whether to try turning this into a proxy war or simply concede that Ukraine is now "lost".

Edited by Bulletpoint
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35 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Russia couldn't win a ground war against NATO, and NATO will not attack Russian forces directly. I'm guessing Putin's end goal is regime change in Ukraine, installing a puppet government in the good old Soviet style.

Depends. If the attacks happens in the coming days the russians would have near absolute strategic surprise. The Polish Army is still unmobilized and dispersed across Poland. The only NATO unit near is the 82 US Airborne. Meanwhile the russians have mobilized a big chunk of its armed forces into Belarus. If the russians think that they can knock off Poland quickly before NATO reinforces it, they might go ahead. (Important to highlight that, it doesnt matter if in reality knocking off Poland so quickly would be impossible, what matters is if the Russian High command think it is, or not, or they are to desperate to care)

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1 minute ago, CHEqTRO said:

Depends. If the attacks happens in the coming days the russians would have near absolute strategic surprise. The Polish Army is still unmobilized and dispersed across Poland. The only NATO unit near is the 82 US Airborne. Meanwhile the russians have mobilized a big chunk of its armed forces into Belarus. If the russians think that they can knock off Poland quickly before NATO reinforces it, they might go ahead. (Important to highlight that, it doesnt matter if in reality knocking off Poland so quickly would be impossible, what matters is if the Russian High command think it is, or not, or they are to desperate to care)

It would also be an enormous escalation. NATO is built on the principle that an attack against one member is an attack on the whole alliance. Currently, Ukraine still a local conflict.

Also, I don't think Russia has mobilised enough troops to do such a thing. At least not from what I've read.

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