arkhangelsk2021 Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, CHEqTRO said: Nah, the intention of taking quickly Kyiv is to have some pro russian politician sign a capitulation agreement and have some legitimacy. It seems that Western Ukraine its going to be left "independent" (That would depend of how the push on Kyiv goes of course). If anything it shows a bit of deseperation. There is no indication that the Ukranian army will stop fighting in case of the fall of its capital. The Ukranian high command will keep operating from Lviv. On the contrary, taking the eastern parts of their country in a quick manner would have mean the encirclement and anhilation of Ukranian forces there, plus a big loss to the economy potential of Ukraine, even if Kyiv holds, probably forcing the Ukranian goverment to accept peace. Right now the attack on Kharkiv is as relevant strategically to the russians as the attack towards Kyiv ... Also, about the celebration of downed airplanes, its important to remember that Russia has not the economy to replenish quickly modern equipment. Any losses they suffer to their arsenal are important in the long term. Also, it shows that both the Ukranian air force and its air defenses are still operative, which a lot of people thought, me included, that they were going to be destroyed on the first day of the offensive, but there they are. Also russian casualties are definitively higher than 500 ( counting KIA, WIA and MIA) Well, I'm not going to say that there aren't arguments for alternative concepts of operation, just that the current flow of events is best explained by the Russians having a "Decapitation by Going to the Capital" strategy. As for whether it's the best call ... well, there's a lot of argumentation that the Germans should have made a concentrated lunge on Moscow rather than diverting towards Ukraine. As for Russian casualties, they are substantial and it's harder to replace equipment than even back in the Cold War, but so far I've heard of nothing that justifies the cheering. Russia never had the benefit of a war that was as cheap (in friendly lives) as Gulf War I. On the other hand, it also means it has no expectations of a cheap war - if Russia decides on war, it means its senior leadership is prepared to take some losses (whether they are easy to replace or not), especially since Ukraine isn't Iraq or even Georgia - by Russian standards they are reasonably trained and equipped, and there can be no delusions the Russians will just steamroller them. And they are losing a plane here or there, a platoon or company gets ambushed ... I'm seeing nothing that is likely to cause their senior leadership to go "Eek! We are being WIPED. We didn't plan to take nearly that many losses." At most this is their Worst case, or even their Middle case projection. So I just don't see them stopping their operation for this kind of casualty rate. ==== Finally, a bit of un-necessary cruelty: Edited February 25, 2022 by arkhangelsk2021 Because this has to be preserved. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aragorn2002 Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 (edited) 8 minutes ago, arkhangelsk2021 said: Well, I'm not going to say that there aren't arguments for alternative concepts of operation, just that the current flow of events is best explained by the Russians having a "Decapitation by Going to the Capital" strategy. As for whether it's the best call ... well, there's a lot of argumentation that the Germans should have made a concentrated lunge on Moscow rather than diverting towards Ukraine. As for Russian casualties, they are substantial and it's harder to replace equipment than even back in the Cold War, but so far I've heard of nothing that justifies the cheering. Russia never had the benefit of a war that was as cheap (in friendly lives) as Gulf War I. On the other hand, it also means it has no expectations of a cheap war - if Russia decides on war, it means its senior leadership is prepared to take some losses (whether they are easy to replace or not), especially since Ukraine isn't Iraq or even Georgia - by Russian standards they are reasonably trained and equipped, and there can be no delusions the Russians will just steamroller them. And they are losing a plane here or there, a platoon or company gets ambushed ... I'm seeing nothing that is likely to cause their senior leadership to go "Eek! We are being WIPED. We didn't plan to take nearly that many losses." At most this is their Worst case, or even their Middle case projection. So I just don't see them stopping their operation for this kind of casualty rate. It's all wishful thinking. The Russians have plenty of reserves. They prepared this for years. Same goes for their present operations. Perhaps a setback here and there, but they are completly in control and haven't thrown their full weight in yet. Perhaps they try to give us false hope, so we will be moderate in our sanctions, and think there's something to negotiate with. Typical Russian chessplay. And losses are something to consider, even for Putin. So he's taking his time. It's not like there's any REAL help underway from abroad, is there? Edited February 25, 2022 by Aragorn2002 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Kettler Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 It must be particularly galling to be fighting a war and have your air base hit by missiles manufactured in your own country! Millerovo is the home of 2 x Su-35/FLANKER F multirole fighter squadrons. In a satellite pic I saw (date unknown), the planes were all neatly lined up close to one another on the ramp, not in revetments or HASs (Hardened Aircraft Shelters), making them juicy targets had this been the situation when one or more Tochka-U SSMs dropped in with 450 kg warhead as the gift. https://kbm.ru/en/production/otrk/351.html Tochka-U has a submunition warhead capability, too. During the Cold War, I saw a satellite pic showing the Russians out there on the range frantically trying to fill up the telltale holes the submunitions (think Grad type warhead per) left in the ground. This represents an enormous hazard to exposed aircraft, ordnance, POL vehicles, and personnel when 50 submunitions of that size come hurtling down and detonate.https://nationalinterest.org/blog/ss-21-scarab-russias-forgotten-deadly-ballistic-missile-17679 Regards, John Kettler 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Kettler Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 (edited) Seizing vehicles and using them in an attempted coup de main is a classic SO move, especially with the prize being nothing less than capturing the hostile government's seat of power, military HQs, broadcast means, power stations, transport centers, etc. , thus avoiding the otherwise certain devastation and mass casualties (military and civilian) of the MOUT meat grinder and. the stupendous resulting humanitarian disaster AFTER the city was taken. That there was a truck column fully loaded and ready to go right in behind them tells me this was a planned op, not a hasty expedient assault. Regards, John Kettler Edited February 25, 2022 by John Kettler 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMS Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 38 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said: He is awfully quiet. But not out of shame, I'm sure. Why should he be ashamed, because he was mistaken about government plans? You assume that he knew about attack, but intentionally denied it? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMS Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 (edited) 46 minutes ago, arkhangelsk2021 said: Finally, a bit of un-necessary cruelty: This is Strela-10 in Kiev. Ukrainian government sources claim that Russian saboteurs are dressed in VSU uniform and crashed into this car. Edited February 25, 2022 by DMS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arkhangelsk2021 Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 (edited) A Russian SAM has advanced as far as a residential district in Kiev: Obolon as a map: https://www.google.com/maps/place/Obolon,+Kyiv,+Ukraine,+02000/@50.4113225,30.3980939,10z/data=!4m5!3m4!1s0x40d4d2146b576c33:0xf10debc0e65558a5!8m2!3d50.5122535!4d30.4939596 1 minute ago, DMS said: This is Strela-10 in Kiev. Ukrainian government sources claim that Russian saboteurs are dressed in VSU uniform and crashed into this car. Now that you say it, I can make out what might be missile tubes. Is it the same one as in the tweet above? Edited February 25, 2022 by arkhangelsk2021 Reply to DMS 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aragorn2002 Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 (edited) 36 minutes ago, DMS said: Why should he be ashamed, because he was mistaken about government plans? You assume that he knew about attack, but intentionally denied it? Yes, he should be ashamed, as hard to imagine that might be for you. In your profile you don't state that you're still living in the Soviet Union for nothing. It's that kind of thinking that brought Putin to his actions. Edited February 25, 2022 by Aragorn2002 Calming down/not wasting more breath on them 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andy_101 Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 @Haiduk Not heard from you for a few hours on this thread. Are you safe? Are you okay? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_MonkeyKing Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Seems we will be seeing urban battles in Kiev today.It looks to me very suicidal for the Russian to drive in to a major metropolitan area with determined enemy resistant with isolated company+ forces.Compare this to what US has had to do in major Iraq urban operations and still had trouble. Are they hoping to replicate the US "Thunder run"? I think they will get their teeth kicked in that case. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarendJanNL Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 3 hours ago, arkhangelsk2021 said: The Russian offensive doesn't seem to be going too poorly. The Western prong is about halfway towards Kiev, and the Ukrainians are blowing bridges. What site are you using to track the conflict? Map seems like a good overview 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMS Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 12 minutes ago, arkhangelsk2021 said: Now that you say it, I can make out what might be missile tubes. Is it the same one as in the tweet above? Yes, it happened in Obolon. So no Russian SAM in Kiev. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_MonkeyKing Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 1 minute ago, BarendJanNL said: What site are you using to track the conflict? Map seems like a good overview https://liveuamap.com/ (often down atm)https://www.scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The-War-in-Ukraine/091194 (finnish map) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarendJanNL Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Thanks mate! Highly value this thread, thanks everyone for all the news and insights 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holien Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 58 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said: Yes, he should be ashamed, as hard to imagine that might be for you. In your profile you don't state that you're still living in the Soviet Union for nothing. It's that kind of thinking that brought Putin to his actions. Can you two take this outside of the thread? Please.... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_MonkeyKing Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 lets not get this thread locked. So don't even try to get the last words in or the moral high ground. Zero posts responding to anybody about anything other than events. Take that to PMs 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holien Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 51 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said: Seems we will be seeing urban battles in Kiev today.It looks to me very suicidal for the Russian to drive in to a major metropolitan area with determined enemy resistant with isolated company+ forces.Compare this to what US has had to do in major Iraq urban operations and still had trouble. Are they hoping to replicate the US "Thunder run"? I think they will get their teeth kicked in that case. I saw reports yesterday that they were arming civilians with AK's I am not sure if that will do more harm than good if true. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_MonkeyKing Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Just now, Holien said: I saw reports yesterday that they were arming civilians with AK's I am not sure if that will do more harm than good if true. In terms of causing trouble for the Russian sure it is a gain. So win for the UKR total war effort. In other terms these urban fights can easily develop to something like Aleppo or Grozny. So lose for humanity at least in the sort term. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holien Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 1 hour ago, Andy_101 said: @Haiduk Not heard from you for a few hours on this thread. Are you safe? Are you okay? Reports about last night show people taking shelter in the underground, I am guessing that we might not hear from him if he is taking shelter or taken up the offer of a free AK47. I hope he is safe and keeping his head down. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holien Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Quote There are also videos appearing to show fighting between civilians and people in military uniform BBC reports https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60517447 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulletpoint Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 I'm doubting that even urban combat will turn into a meat grinder for Russia. While Ukraine now tries to arm the general population and encourages them to attack Russian tanks with molotov cocktails, I'm not sure we can compare Ukrainian civilians with the fanatical and literally suicidal jihadist resistance in the Middle East. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zveroboy1 Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Jesus. I never imagined they would be actually going for Kyiv. This is really bad. All this affair and the military exercises and force buildup at first sounded like some sort of negotiation attempt where you create a problem yourself then offer to fix it in exchange for something. Or some plain bullying and intimidating. When it began I thought they would try to perhaps cripple the Ukrainian military, maybe create a land bridge to Crimea, even just score a minor tactical victory for domestic purposes in order for Putin to claim he didn't back down and stood up to the west. But this is scary. You don't send VDV forces to take an airport if you don't intend to later relieve them with ground forces and the thrusts around the capital shown on these graphics speak for themselves. Was this all planned from the start or did Putin consider backing down would make him appear weak? As much as it is tempting to think of Putin as a madman, this sounds more like some cold and cynical calculated risk. What's worrying is that can Putin even stop now? If the whole thing ended now, then it sounds likely that strategically it would just make NATO's resolve stronger and Ukraine more likely to join than before which sounds precisely what Moscow wants to avoid. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_MonkeyKing Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said: I'm doubting that even urban combat will turn into a meat grinder for Russia. While Ukraine now tries to arm the general population and encourages them to attack Russian tanks with molotov cocktails, I'm not sure we can compare Ukrainian civilians with the fanatical and literally suicidal jihadist resistance in the Middle East. I think the main thread is still the UKR military, but the civilians will help. Operation in an urban environment where you can get shot from 360 degrees at anytime is significant hinderance to any force. Dislodging a near-peer opponent from huge urban areas is something entirely different. I don't think the current Russian forces are not capable of doing. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
borg Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Will we see guerrilla type of hits now that RUS entered urban areas. ? snipers ? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_MonkeyKing Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Just now, borg said: Will we see guerrilla type of hits now that RUS entered urban areas. ? snipers ? I am certain. I would also expect Russian supply lines starting to get hit soon. They have cover a lots of ground fast with relatively little forces. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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