Bulletpoint Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 6 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said: I think the main thread is still the UKR military, but the civilians will help. Operation in an urban environment where you can get shot from 360 degrees at anytime is significant hinderance to any force. True, but I think this is mostly because we are seeing this from a western perspective, where we value soldiers' lives highly and often refrain from hitting back if (peaceful) civilians could be hurt. The Russian army does not play by the same rules. Germany didn't have much luck holding back the Soviets by arming civilians at the end of WW2. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_MonkeyKing Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said: True, but I think this is mostly because we are seeing this from a western perspective, where we value soldiers' lives highly and often refrain from hitting back if (peaceful) civilians could be hurt. The Russian army does not play by the same rules. Germany didn't have much luck holding back the Soviets by arming civilians at the end of WW2. Yes, Russian can turn Ukrainian towns to Grozny and Aleppo. This is going to be slow, expensive in men, ammo, home opinion and world opinion. The clock is ticking against the Russians. If they lose the operative momentum it is going to be hard to regain it on a operational and strategic level. Edited February 25, 2022 by The_MonkeyKing 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulletpoint Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 What do you think would happen if the Russians lose this war? Would the backlash against Putin be strong enough to oust him? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
borg Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 1 minute ago, The_MonkeyKing said: Yes, Russian can turn Russian towns to Grozny and Aleppo. This is going to be slow, expensive in men, ammo, home opinion and word opinion. The clock is ticking against the Russians. If they lose the operative momentum it is going to be hard to regain it on a operational and strategic level. To me, the fact that UKR managed to hold OFF 'alone' without direct help from west on how many? 3 or 4 fronts against RUS, is ALREADY ALOT. God help the people of good will and intentions. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
melm Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 (edited) Without proper organzation, lone wolf attack will just be sporadical. My two cents. I won't think highly of Ukranians' patriotism, then get disappointed by the result. People need to be properly trained and fed to fight against invasion. Edited February 25, 2022 by melm 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_MonkeyKing Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said: What do you think would happen if the Russians lose this war? Would the backlash against Putin be strong enough to oust him? I don't think Kremlin is willing to lose this war. It is all in now. If they fail it is the end of this regime. We will see UKR cities erased from existence, chemical weapons... before any "surrender" from the Kremlin and to add we have seen how Russian fight wars even during Putin. Just look at Chechen war and Syria. Edited February 25, 2022 by The_MonkeyKing 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panzermartin Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 From what I have seen, I dont sense a great desire or mobilisation to resist the russian invasion. The minister encouraged poor civilians to use Aks and molotov cocktails, this is absurd and will waste lives. I saw videos of people sheltering in the underground and they were mostly young men in miltary age scrolling their smartphones. I guess they all had the hope NATO will assist but Zelensky talked with all 27, and all seem scared to intervene. Those that are still asking NATO to intervene are also out of their minds if they think anyone sane will risk WW3 over Ukraine. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Kettler Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 (edited) Ref the Strela-10 ramming the Ukrainian car, per the comments to the tweet, the driver, a senior, survived. On a separate note, Euromaidan Press @EuromaidanPress has provided the information on blown bridge and the hero who died doing it. "To stop the advance of the tank column, the decision was to blow up the Henichesk bridge. The engineer Skakun Vitaliy volunteered to perform this task. He mined the brdige but couldn't leave and blew it up together with himself." The unit successfully redeployed - Land Forces Regards, John Kettler Edited February 25, 2022 by John Kettler 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zveroboy1 Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said: What do you think would happen if the Russians lose this war? Would the backlash against Putin be strong enough to oust him? Win or lose, they are likely to be treated as a pariah state by the international community for the next twenty years. And what's disturbing is that they probably took this into account and still went for it in the end. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_MonkeyKing Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 (edited) 7 minutes ago, panzermartin said: From what I have seen, I dont sense a great desire or mobilisation to resist the russian invasion. The minister encouraged poor civilians to use Aks and molotov cocktails, this is absurd and will waste lives. I saw videos of people sheltering in the underground and they were mostly young men in miltary age scrolling their smartphones. I guess they all had the hope NATO will assist but Zelensky talked with all 27, and all seem scared to intervene. Those that are still asking NATO to intervene are also out of their minds if they think anyone sane will risk WW3 over Ukraine. overflowing recruitment offices no Ukraine formations surrendering or abandoning positions (we have seen this from Russians) many cases Ukrainians fighting to a last man or sacrificing their lives for the cause Ukraine cities and people are remaining stoic. (no panic, no looting) Government and officials showing no sing of wavering civilians indeed taking to arms I think we are looking at the "worst case scenario" for the Russians in terms of Ukrainian will to fight. Edited February 25, 2022 by The_MonkeyKing 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
melm Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Zveroboy1 said: Win or lose, they are likely to be treated as a pariah state by the international community for the next twenty years. And what's disturbing is that they probably took this into account and still went for it in the end. Russia is already a pariah state, isn't it? She has nothing to lose. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
borg Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Just now, The_MonkeyKing said: overflowing recruitment offices no Ukraine formations surrendering or abandoning positions (we have seen this from Russians) Ukraine cities and people are remaining stoic. (no panic, no looting) Government and officials showing no sing of wavering I think we are looking at the "worst case scenario" for the Russians in terms of Ukrainian will to fight. **** yeah ! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panzermartin Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said: overflowing recruitment offices no Ukraine formations surrendering or abandoning positions (we have seen this from Russians) Ukraine cities and people are remaining stoic. (no panic, no looting) Government and officials showing no sing of wavering I think we are looking at the "worst case scenario" for the Russians in terms of Ukrainian will to fight. Offcial US intelligence says Kiev is about to fall in 48 hours, do you have more reliable sources? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lethaface Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 1 minute ago, panzermartin said: Offcial US intelligence says Kiev is about to fall in 48 hours, do you have more reliable sources? They are afraid Kiev could fall in 48 hours. Nobody knows for certain. Anyway there is pessimists and optimists. So far Ukraine has shown the will to fight and has shown it is able to cause casualties. Regarding civilians fighting, I don't think the idea is that a few civilian with AK and molotov are expected to fight in position against formation. But if truck is moving through street it can be shot with rifle, or lone AFV is moving / parked somewhere that is vulnerable to molotov. Such strikes are mostly important against morale. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulletpoint Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 12 minutes ago, Zveroboy1 said: Win or lose, they are likely to be treated as a pariah state by the international community for the next twenty years. And what's disturbing is that they probably took this into account and still went for it in the end. They might be counting on a short war and then return to a sort of diplomatic normalcy soon, just like there were not that many consequences from seizing Crimea, murdering people with poision, propping up the Assad regime, etc. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lethaface Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said: They might be counting on a short war and then return to a sort of diplomatic normalcy soon, just like there were not that many consequences from seizing Crimea, murdering people with poision, propping up the Assad regime, etc. Might be indeed, although I think that they made a wrong calculation. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_MonkeyKing Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, panzermartin said: Official US intelligence says Kiev is about to fall in 48 hours, do you have more reliable sources? I think that US intel is that is the best intel we can get. I hope Kiev doesn't fall. I hope Ukrainians can hold on. "worst case scenario for the Russians in terms of Ukrainian will to fight." I stand by what I said here. This doesn't mean it is going to turn the tide of the war. Russian might very well have such a strong position that no matter the will of the Ukraine people they are doomed either way. This is the analyst consensus, campaign taking days or weeks to finish. When bullets start flying things get extremely hard to predict. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holien Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 35 minutes ago, melm said: Russia is already a pariah state, isn't it? She has nothing to lose. Nope it was a state to be viewed with caution... Embassys will be closed and movement restricted Govts will not be able Not to React as the public will force them. The Lord Haw Haws will be exposed for the Russian stooges they are... That has all changed and there will be less Russians on holiday in Turkey this year, the rouble has tanked and the Russian economy will suffer, there is no way back for the cabal that run Russia. The cabal might survive for years but this is a Sadam Hussien moment when he decided to invade Kuwait it will end badly but how and when who knows... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulletpoint Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 54 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said: The clock is ticking against the Russians. If they lose the operative momentum it is going to be hard to regain it on a operational and strategic level. I don't think the Ukrainians can regain the initiative. For the simple reason that the Russians have nearly complete air superiority. UKR forces cannot really maneuver, And if they are reduced to simply holding on, they will get isolated in pockets and the Russian firepower advantage will crush them, even if it takes a bit more time. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andy_101 Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 1 hour ago, Holien said: Reports about last night show people taking shelter in the underground, I am guessing that we might not hear from him if he is taking shelter or taken up the offer of a free AK47. I hope he is safe and keeping his head down. Christ, I hope he's okay. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_MonkeyKing Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Bulletpoint said: I don't think the Ukrainians can regain the initiative. For the simple reason that the Russians have nearly complete air superiority. UKR forces cannot really maneuver, And if they are reduced to simply holding on, they will get isolated in pockets and the Russian firepower advantage will crush them, even if it takes a bit more time. I agree. Ukraine will not gain the initiative but Russians can lose theirs and in the future only able to gain it back locally. This will slow things down. Russia is on the clock and bodycount matters. To clarify I do think the future looks very grim for Ukraine. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andy_101 Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 I just heard (unconfirmed) that Ukraine has asked Russia for a ceasefire? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulletpoint Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 1 minute ago, The_MonkeyKing said: Russia is on the clock and bodycount matters. I'm not disagreeing with you, but how many casualties do you think it would take to realistically make body count matter to Putin or his supporters? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulletpoint Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Just now, Andy_101 said: I just heard (unconfirmed) that Ukraine has asked Russia for a ceasefire? I saw this reported on BBC... I assume it was mostly for show, to be able to say that he tried. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panzermartin Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 15 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said: I think that US intel is that is the best intel we can get. I hope Kiev doesn't fall. I hope Ukrainians can hold on. "worst case scenario for the Russians in terms of Ukrainian will to fight." I stand by what I said here. This doesn't mean it is going to turn the tide of the war. Russian might very well have such a strong position that no matter the will of the Ukraine people they are doomed either way. This is the analyst consensus, campaign taking days or weeks to finish. When bullets start flying things get extremely hard to predict. Yes I understand. But given this in papers (numbers, equipmet, high tech russian and western made hardware) etc is the less asymmetrical conflict I have witnessed in a very long time, I expected the russians will have much bigger trouble. UKR are no 3rd world army like Iraq was. If this is about to change after the initial shock time will tell. But if Kiev capitulates as expected I dont see how this will go on. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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