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womble

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womble last won the day on June 18 2021

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About womble

  • Birthday 01/06/1967

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  1. Hey Womble, just checking in to see if you are still around these forums 🙂

  2. As an adjacent point to this, ricochets are dangerous to everyone, not just "those other guys". Generally, you don't need to worry about sub-50cal rounds causing friendly fire, but as soon as they bounce off something, they forget who fired 'em.
  3. Or maybe you're doing it right! I don't know what circumstances will trigger a given combination of soft and hard factors in a team to persuade them that leaning out to fight is a Good Idea, but I'd suspect that it's not a first-choice activity. Perhaps you're just keeping your pTruppen in comfortable situations where they don't feel that plinking away with their small arms is a particularly useful contribution.
  4. Maybe actually read and understand the article and find the difference between what it said, which is probably based on truth and what you said which is arrant nonsense. Hint: "The Internet" is not, by and large, dependent on satellites. Neither are cell phones. See those masts everywhere? They're not satellites, and they're not linked by satellites. May be true, but it is irrelevant to most day-to-day usage of the Internet, at the individual, corporate and governmental levels.
  5. Rubbish. International banking comms isn't reliant on satellites. They'd have to start snipping oceanic cables as well, and that would, I believe, go hard for Russia, and they know it. As, indeed, would taking out communications satellites, but probably to a lesser degree.
  6. I will not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little death that brings total obliteration. And so on.
  7. Way to miss The Captain's point. You seem to have ignored the last part of his sentence A recurring tenet of The_Capt's treatises is that "War is negotiation". He's no bleeding-heart liberal who thinks this can be "talked out" round a table at this time. The whizz-bangs are doing the talking right now.
  8. It depends entirely on what they're used to (try and) hit. Same as any other weapon. If the target's in civilian areas (but still legit in and of itself), then the CEP of the strike system orter be smaller than the target. I'm guessing the S-200 isn't incredibly precise, so you probably shouldn't lob 'em at small targets with potential collateral damage right nearby.
  9. I think the point is that the prospect of surrounding doesn't have to be quite as clearly visible to the Russians as it might need to be for other forces before "Run Away!" becomes the order of the day. Whether that's because of their lack of confidence in being relieved before being overrun or lack of confidence in being able to withdraw in an organised manner under any greater levels of pressure, or their lack of confidence in their flanks actually holding, is arguable. I don't think we can argue that it's "cowardice", just a greater level of "operational prudence". Which makes me think that Bakhmut might currently be an exception to the general Russian rule. We've seen reports that the place is now surrounded (at least by fires) by UKR, and still the holding RUS haven't been withdrawn.
  10. They really don't like being surrounded, do they?
  11. And the frequency of bogs... outside the urban areas, that is.
  12. I suspect they weren't taken to the Falklands at least partly because of the appreciation that the PBI was going to have to walk "a fair distance" over "unhelpful" terrain in them, and at that point, they'd just become litter in a Falklands bog... NI operations didn't involve 30 mile a day yomps very often, AIUI.
  13. Most of the rest of what you say is at least adjacent to, if not the absolute Truth*, which is better than a lot of commentators. I disagree with the quoted bit, though. The "threat"** was the excuse for some plain, old-fashioned Imperialism. Russia already has borders with NATO members. Who that excuse was aimed at is debatable, but it feeds into the whole "external enemy" narrative the Kremlin has always used to unify their people behind their Kleptocracy. It panders to the prejudices of the polities that feel ill-treated by the First World, and gives the Arch Cynics of China and India "plausible deniability" for their disinterest. The accession of Finland to NATO hasn't triggered Armageddon, which is suggestive that "Moar NATO" wasn't the problem. The problem with brinksmanship is that it's difficult to be sure where the brink actually is. Assertions that one thing or another is definitely the thing that will bring about the Apocalypse are largely pointless, which is why the gradualist approach is the only way to escalate. The gradual approach also has the advantage that it can often have the effect of moving the opposition's "red lines" over time. Putin's Russia did that a lot before March '22, to great effect. * as I see it, at least ** which hasn't been real since at least 1950
  14. Or just get Lloyds to stop insuring those bottoms, so no organised port will let them dock, and they won't be allowed through Suez/Panama.
  15. Apart from the dubious premise that "tiny city states" will be the outcome, are Russia's nukes actually that dispersed? I doubt that too. The security implications of "penny packet"ing them out are... significant. But beyond the matter of guarantees, what else can such a microstate do with 'em? They could sell 'em to Iran, but that way they don't get guarantees either, and "The West" can pay more than Iran or other "bad actors" who don't already have serviceable nukes. I don't think the concept makes the danger of proliferation much worse. For "proper countries" which secede from the Russian Union, guarantees would have to be on the table, along with many other incentives (green ones).
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