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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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Steve,

Maybe I was brain dead when I read the Oryx blog equipment loss or capture breakdowns in the wee hours yesterday, but am dumbfounded by today's Russian overall  armor loss figures--1000 AFVs in round numbers, of which essentially 200 were tanks and 800 light armor. When was the last time, over such a short period, that in a peer-to-peer fight the attacker lost such astronomic amounts of AFVs? Offhand, I can't come up with one.

Regards,

John Kettler

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14 minutes ago, Andy_101 said:

Very interesting twitter thread here relating to Aleksandra Dugin who has apparently been a big influence on Putin's ideology/philosophy . 

https://twitter.com/TobyVenables/status/1497916322469928960?s=20&t=KzqCcXBuSmZk5cIOLfX35w

Interesting indeed. Especially recommend to the people who still think we're dealing with rational, reasonable people.

Woow:

"It doesn’t end there. Dugin advocates bringing most of Europe into the Russian fold in some manner, including not only obvious candidates such as Ukraine, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, but also Finland, Romania, North Macedonia, Serbia, ‘Serbian Bosnia’ and Greece." 

Edited by Aragorn2002
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28 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

Zveroboy1,

Please go watch the video and then report back.

Yeah I will do no such thing. You got scammed period. And not only that but you willingly paid someone to infect your poor head with this mind rot. And now you're poisoning the collective well by repeating and spreading it.

I know how it must make you feel smart, enlightened and stroke your ego to have the illusion that you "get it" while everybody else is oblivious to the truth. But what's really going on is that you have reached a stage where you have been fed so much lies that you can't tell what's real or not anymore. Congratulation you are a victim of disinformation and you're enabling online snake oil salesmen and grifters. I don't even know why I am replying to you because I have dealt with people like you who have objectively lost it in the past and it is completely pointless. I am guessing most people here either have you on ignore or feel sorry for you and give you a pass but I have no such qualms and you are due for a good reality check because this is both really painful to read and derailing a very interesting thread.

 

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From the images /stories I've seen so far, the Ukrainians like the NLAW. They are doing work. I'm sure the other systems they have are also doing work. God knows how important it was to get those weapons into Ukraine before the invasion and with time to train people in their use.

It looks to me like the terrain and the timetable, the mud etc, is forcing mass movement by road and is perfect for ambushes. 

I know more support from the EU etc is coming. I expect the Russian to be paying more attention to the western borders and major routes into the country in the coming days.

https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1497590205074845698

Edited by Jace11
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32 minutes ago, Jace11 said:

From the images /stories I've seen so far, the Ukrainians like the NLAW. They are doing work. I'm sure the other systems they have are also doing work. God knows how important it was to get those weapons into Ukraine before the invasion and with time to train people in their use.

 

That probably hasn't happen in order not to provoke Putin. He no doubt also would have used that to justify his aggression. Another piece of evidence how careful and correct the West has been. But I agree with you.

 

32 minutes ago, Jace11 said:

I know more support form the EU etc is coming. I expect the Russian to be paying more attention to the western borders and major routes into the country in the coming days.

https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1497590205074845698

I trully think NATO should create a land and air corridor in Western Ukraine, protected  by NATO units, in order to keep the arms deliveries to those brave Ukrainians flowing. For those that would call that an escalation, I can only say that the situation has already been escalated somewhat the moment Putin and his cronies invaded and now that other criminal in Belarus also send his troops to help to destroy the free nation of Ukraine.

 

 

 

Edited by Aragorn2002
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21 minutes ago, Zveroboy1 said:

Yeah I will do no such thing. You got scammed period. And not only that but you willingly paid someone to infect your poor head with this mind rot. And now you're poisoning the collective well by repeating and spreading it.

I know how it must make you feel smart, enlightened and stroke your ego to have the illusion that you "get it" while everybody else is oblivious to the truth. But what's really going on is that you have reached a stage where you have been fed so much lies that you can't tell what's real or not anymore. Congratulation you are a victim of disinformation and you're enabling online snake oil salesmen and grifters. I don't even know why I am replying to you because I have dealt with people like you who have objectively lost it in the past and it is completely pointless. I am guessing most people here either have you on ignore or feel sorry for you and give you a pass but I have no such qualms and you are due for a good reality check because this is both really painful to read and derailing a very interesting thread.

 

Zveroboy1,

IYO. Time will tell, won't it? If I was wrong, I'll admit it, but will you if you were? As for derailing the thread, I've made 107 posts to it and spent cubic hours digging so I could make them. Derailing posts as defined by you? Two. As defined by me? None.

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited by John Kettler
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22 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

Steve,

Maybe I was brain dead when I read the Oryx blog equipment loss or capture breakdowns in the wee hours yesterday, but am dumbfounded by today's Russian overall  armor loss figures--1000 AFVs in round numbers, of which essentially 200 were tanks and 800 light armor. When was the last time, over such a short period, that in a peer-to-peer fight the attacker lost such astronomic amounts of AFVs? Offhand, I can't come up with one.

Regards,

John Kettler

But these are Ukrainian estimates of Russia losses. Even if they are trying to report accurately in public (rather than stretching the truth for propaganda), history shows that they are likely to be over-estimating.

Conversely, it might be easier to be more accurate in the days of smart phones. When you are relying on verbal reports form the soldiers on what they've destroyed, it's easy for several people to claim to have knocked out the same target. If they are taking photos of serial numbers etc. and sending those back in real time, it's possible to be more accurate about tracking what exactly has been knocked out and when there are multiple reports for the same vehicle.

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I would like to congratulate everyone for the quality of the information and the analyzes carried out on this thread. I have been devouring it for several days now even if it develops faster than I have time to watch it

m5j2.png

Z tout seul: forces provenant de russie
Z dans carré: forces de crimée
O forces venant de Biélorussie
V infanterie de marine
X tchétchènes
A forces spéciales
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1 hour ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Interesting indeed. Especially recommend to the people who still think we're dealing with rational, reasonable people.

Woow:

"It doesn’t end there. Dugin advocates bringing most of Europe into the Russian fold in some manner, including not only obvious candidates such as Ukraine, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, but also Finland, Romania, North Macedonia, Serbia, ‘Serbian Bosnia’ and Greece." 

Indeed.  In one of Dugin's books he advocates the "Findlandization" of all of Europe.  One particular point to note is the following:

"The United Kingdom is described as an "extraterritorial floating base of the U.S.", [and] should be cut off from Europe." 

Whatever people's thoughts on Brexit (whether it was influenced by Russia or not), this has played right into the hands of this ideology/doctrine.  

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10 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Yes, all of this to denazify Ukraine...

I see. They've also bombarded a place called Horizont in the past hour... so, they are bombarding this line?

https://www.google.com/maps/dir/49°56′N+36°25′E/Shopping+Mall+Ekvator,+Moskovs'kyi+Ave,+256б,+Kharkiv,+Kharkiv+Oblast,+Ukraine,+61000/@49.9445886,36.3728188,14z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m12!4m11!1m3!2m2!1d36.4166667!2d49.9333333!1m5!1m1!1s0x41270bbf25cb4e4d:0x5038f9e7192e96e2!2m2!1d36.3619766!2d49.9563432!3e0

That they are bombarding this sector also suggests that the Russians "living forces" are not too far behind, close enough they might be inside Kharkiv again.

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2 hours ago, Andy_101 said:

Very interesting twitter thread here relating to Aleksandra Dugin who has apparently been a big influence on Putin's ideology/philosophy . 

https://twitter.com/TobyVenables/status/14979163#22469928960?s=20&t=KzqCcXBuSmZk5cIOLfX35w

Thanks for the link. That is really important to know. Putins ideology is in its core fascism and he is willing to do everyhting to get what Dugin detailed in his book "foundations of geopolitics". Putin is not a rationalist anymore but purely driven by ideology. 

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1 hour ago, Falaise said:

I would like to congratulate everyone for the quality of the information and the analyzes carried out on this thread. I have been devouring it for several days now even if it develops faster than I have time to watch it

m5j2.png

Z tout seul: forces provenant de russie
Z dans carré: forces de crimée
O forces venant de Biélorussie
V infanterie de marine
X tchétchènes
A forces spéciales

Interesting, @Battlefront.com an explanation of the paint symbols.

Edited by Lethaface
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As all too often, Westerners don't believe in Russians having rights:

https://www.theguardian.com/music/2022/feb/28/denounce-putin-or-lose-your-job-russian-conductor-valery-gergiev-given-public-ultimatum

Quote

Denounce Putin or lose your job: Russian conductor Valery Gergiev given public ultimatum

Star conductor and close friend of Putin dropped by his management ahead of deadline to speak out or be fired from Munich Philharmonic

Russia’s star conductor, Valery Gergiev, has been dropped by his management over his close ties to Vladimir Putin as he faces a looming deadline to publicly denounce the Russian president or lose yet another role in his rapidly crumbling career.

The 68-year-old Russian, an old friend and supporter of Putin, has faced increasing pressure to speak out against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine over the last week. He has been removed from performances around the world and faces more professional punishment if he does not condemn Putin’s aggression in the next 24 hours.

 

On Sunday, his manager, Marcus Felsner, announced he would be dropping Gergiev, who he called “the greatest conductor alive and an extraordinary human being with a profound sense of decency”, but who “will not, or cannot, publicly end his long-expressed support for a regime that has come to commit such crimes.”

“In the light of the criminal war waged by the Russian regime against the democratic and independent nation of Ukraine, and against the European open society as a whole, it has become impossible for us, and clearly unwelcome, to defend the interests of Maestro Gergiev,” Felsner said in a statement, calling it “the saddest day of my professional life.”

The move by Gergiev’s management comes just before a Monday deadline imposed by the mayor of Munich, Dieter Reiter, on Gergiev to publicly denounce the invasion. If Gergiev does not comply, Reiter said he would be fired as chief conductor of the Munich Philharmonic.

At a performance of Tchaikovsky’s opera The Queen of Spades in La Scala last Wednesday, Gergiev was “lightly booed”, Italian press reported.

 

 

Edited by arkhangelsk2021
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Rights or no rights….

seeing those HEAVY bombardment done right now , during the TALKS between RUS and UKR, is indeed such a f****d up situation . I now - start to understand more why one side is down right evil, and other side trying to survive and defend.

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6 minutes ago, arkhangelsk2021 said:

As all too often, Westerners don't believe in Russians having rights:

Mr Vladimir Putin is in his rights not hiring me as a figure skater. What is the problem if you don't want to continue somebody's contract? Communism with a lifetime nanny state didn't work.

Edited by chuckdyke
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53 minutes ago, Mft004 said:

Yeh that was an interesting night : ) But common sense pulls through; I think most are using the 2-sided coin now, so we should see some more open-minded posts.

Kind regards,

Mark

What you call '2-sided coin' and 'open mindedness', I call dangerous and downright stupid, Mark. Personally I would ban all posters who dare to talk about 'balance' and 'Russin rights', now a whole people is suffering under under terror attacks and it's cities are shot to rubble by a rogue state. But tolerant as the West is, we also allow people like you to post their rubbish. And no, it ain't 'most of us', but just a handful of dubious characters with even more dubious motives. Like yourself actually.

50 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Yes, all of this to denazify Ukraine...

 

 

Yeah, hard to find the other side of the coin in that, isn't it?

Edited by Aragorn2002
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36 minutes ago, arkhangelsk2021 said:

I see. They've also bombarded a place called Horizont in the past hour... so, they are bombarding this line?

Bit confusing because there appears to be two shopping malls with the same name : Ekvator or «Екватор» 

And They're 8 kilometers away. It seems unlikely they're targeting both.

I think this is the one that was hit :

https://www.google.com/maps/dir/49°56′N+36°25′E/Shopping+Mall+Ekvator,+Moskovs'kyi+Ave,+256б,+Kharkiv,+Kharkiv+Oblast,+Ukraine,+61000/@50.0308349,36.356561,17.11z/data=!4m14!4m13!1m5!1m1!1s0x0:0xa31058afefcc63a9!2m2!1d36.4161197!2d49.9331351!1m5!1m1!1s0x41270bbf25cb4e4d:0x5038f9e7192e96e2!2m2!1d36.3619766!2d49.9563432!3e0

Here is a google earth picture :

AF1QipN9271fHBjDSfbWd0CUTJTnF-KuiXcWzLhY

You can see the mall in the centre with the red billboard and recognise the building from the twitter vid with the small triangular roof which must be a fire station. So they must have hit the vacant lot and garages towards the left side?

Edited by Zveroboy1
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