How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Baneman]

49 minutes ago, arkhangelsk2021 said:

Look at how easily a Russian's rights get sidelined. Sigh.

.....

Do you note a change in the tenor of the answers? Yes, it's slow. It's subtle, but it is happening - the status of Russians in Ukraine is progressively being reduced. One step at a time, and this is reflected in both the official law and testimonies.

You'll notice that the bulk of your quotes about Russian "oppression" are dated post-2014.

Do you really think that after Crimea and everything that went down in the Donbas in 2014-5, Russians would be popular ?

[Mft004]

3 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

The irony is that you are making a large issue about someone who might lose his job because he doesn't speak out about the war (and it's not that he is dirt poor and needs those couple of EUR to feed his children). 

But on the other side of the coin are heavy Smerch MLRS cluster munitions targeting densely populated civilian area's, which you don't seem to have an issue with.

I think what we're seeing in Europe is that all those who were looking at both sides of the coin, have now seen that one side favors aggressive war under false pretenses with megalomaniac claims about 'one people, one empire' while the other is defending their country against the aggression.

 Ukraine is a country with a lot of corruption among other issues, but that doesn't make them deserving of being invaded and occupied; they haven't invaded any parts of Russia so the talk about self defense / security is just simply BS.

Your moral compass seems to have been lost long ago. If you feel for the orchestra director, send him some money. Ours will go to the Ukrainians defending their country against his dictator friend.

Only a small number of observers have tried to see both sides of the coin so far. Most of the comments in the social sphere are a play on hype for one side or the other. A clear head is a rarity - albeit only at this moment. Give it just a little more time and that will change.

[arkhangelsk2021]

1 minute ago, Baneman said:

You'll notice that the bulk of your quotes about Russian "oppression" are dated post-2014.

Do you really think that after Crimea and everything that went down in the Donbas in 2014-5, Russians would be popular ?

Did you miss the part that even before 2014, people were already objecting to the law, even though objectively it said nothing objectionable?

And again, those little People's Republics are only so little ethnic Russians, not just Ukrainians, decided to place their bet on Ukraine. Whether you think of this as a rights issue or simply the pre-natural rights thought of rewarding the loyal, do you not see a problem with stripping them of rights they were already given?

[Baneman]

7 minutes ago, arkhangelsk2021 said:

...you can only fire for cause. Refusing to do express a stance in a subject clearly not work-related does not cut it.

And if that is the case, he can take his employer to court and win - because, that's how normally rights are protected.
And, being the west, he's not even likely to fall out of a window for doing so.

[Aragorn2002]

23 minutes ago, Mft004 said:

Glad to hear it; if more people do the comparison, we'll get somewhere.

Yeah, but not where you seem to have crashed.

[BeondTheGrave]

My morning twitter roundup:

Chief of Staff might be out. Some speculated on this last night, here might be confirmation. 

 

Updated loss estimate. Biased obviously, but it was shocking that the TASS report the other day seemed very much in line with Ukraine's. 

Seems like the Russian southern pincer is, in microcosm, experiencing German 'moscow' syndrome. Do we want to push for the center? Make the land bridge on the coast? What about those marines in Odessa? It seems like mostly the operational direction is consolidating around the Mariupol area, but IMO as long as the direction tries to do everything at once, it will be weak. 

 

@Battlefront.com I believe this was the cluster munition you were looking for? Think this might be from the same grad attack others posted upthread. Some people (myself included) think it was a cluster munitions attack. 

Another attack in Kharkov, looks different from the other ones. Maybe conventional HE rockets? But looks to me like theyre targeting civilian complexes directly. I mean obviously the US can't complain too much about destroying another countries hearth and home, something something strategic boming, but is this really what the Russians want to spend their ammo on? And to be honest if those are legendary 'Commie blocks' I doubt a Grad rocket would even have much effect. Those things were built to last (sometimes) lots of concrete and rebar, each one is basically a bunker. 

 

and on the economic front:

 

Like I proposed upthread. In the short term the the CB's measures will probably prevent total collapse, but the numbers hide the rot. And of course a 20% interest rate will bleed money over time. The US bond rate is like ~7%? (Really its more complicated, varies by duration.) BUT the killer is inflation. If you think inflation will be a killer then you might prefer to invest in something more durable, whose value will track better. Like gold, oil (which is like gold, but black), or other must have commodities. 

[Doc844]

So this thread has been really good for following the WAR in Ukraine and seeing peoples views on tactics and operational options etc.  However I would say that last couple of pages have turned into theological semantic back and forth bulls**t.  He stole my toy first back in 19th century whatever.  These arguments have a time and place but for me not on this thread.  You want to discuss conspiracy theories, who has the moral high ground etc, then open your own thread and have at it, cause if you dont I can see this interesting thread with its wealth of information getting shutdown.  Plus I cant be bothered wading through all that drivel.

 

Thanks in advance.

[arkhangelsk2021]

7 minutes ago, Baneman said:

And if that is the case, he can take his employer to court and win - because, that's how normally rights are protected.
And, being the west, he's not even likely to fall out of a window for doing so.

Normally, rights are protected by people achieving self-restraint. If rights are protected in court, by this analogy Ukraine should go to court and get a ruling saying that the Russians' actions are illegal.

Don't be stupid. The primary line of defense for rights is always the front line - from individual to individual, bosses to subordinates, or one step removed the local official versus the private citizen. Courts are only a better than nothing remedy.

And sorry @Doc844 , got a bit carried away answering points there. Returning to the main topic:

The good news for the Ukrainians is that they stopped the Russians, but it seems the Russians have managed to make progress again.

Edited February 28, 2022 by arkhangelsk2021

[Mft004]

Just now, Aragorn2002 said:

Yeah, but not where you seem to have crashed.

Forgive me Aragorn. I'm in Northwest UK; only invisible strategic assets in my backwater region of the country so the risk of invasion, or in the worst-case scenario suffering from nuclear fallout, is minimal compared to say - a historical conquest highway like Holland. I'd forgotten that fear may be compelling some of you to get defensive. It's easy for me to sit here, watching over all of you, head in hands, tear in corner of eye, as blood is shed on both sides and countries nearby tremble. Perhaps if I was closer to the action, I might not be able to see things as clearly either.

[Lethaface]

9 minutes ago, Mft004 said:

Only a small number of observers have tried to see both sides of the coin so far. Most of the comments in the social sphere are a play on hype for one side or the other. A clear head is a rarity - albeit only at this moment. Give it just a little more time and that will change.

Yours is obviously not clear. And indeed there was some time needed, but now everyone in Europe and beyond is seeing it clearly and acting on it. 

 

5 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Yeah, but not where you seem to have crashed.

There's plenty of times we have disagreed ;-), but in this case 100% agreed.

[The_MonkeyKing]

16 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

The_MonkeyKing,

More niceness:

 

Edited February 28, 2022 by The_MonkeyKing

[Baneman]

4 minutes ago, arkhangelsk2021 said:

... do you not see a problem with stripping them of rights they were already given?

Lots of governments give minorities a hard time.

Even in my case, I ( and many others ) here in Scotland feel that the UK government is stripping us of rights.
We tried a legal referendum about independence and may try another soon.

We didn't try armed insurrection or invite someone to invade the UK over it.
I could also leave and move to a country where I agreed more with the government's policies.

It's the turning to violence and killing people that tends to lose you any support.

[Aragorn2002]

1 minute ago, Lethaface said:

Yours is obviously not clear. And indeed there was some time needed, but now everyone in Europe and beyond is seeing it clearly and acting on it. 

 

There's plenty of times we have disagreed ;-), but in this case 100% agreed.

Close the ranks!

[Mft004]

1 minute ago, Lethaface said:

Yours is obviously not clear. And indeed there was some time needed, but now everyone in Europe and beyond is seeing it clearly and acting on it. 

 

There's plenty of times we have disagreed ;-), but in this case 100% agreed.

Nope not enough time yet sir. Not enough time : )

[arkhangelsk2021]

Looks like the Belarussians are going to try another tack in using the airborne forces - elite light infantry rather than units of operational significance.

[BeondTheGrave]

 

Can one of you uniform snipers figure out where that video was taken? Looks like Russia? If true, thats one of most active protests I've seen there in a while. Things are getting out of hand....

A look at a home made defense position. We saw some of those hedgehog tank traps welded together in clips yesterday and before. Havn't seen the caltrops before but I wonder how effective theyll be. Better than nothing for sure.

Theyll be joining US volunteers as well. 

 

That shopping center, it was coming right for me!

Weve done it. Weve won the NFT ape's support. Russia now has no chance. 

Edited February 28, 2022 by BeondTheGrave

[Lethaface]

5 minutes ago, Mft004 said:

Nope not enough time yet sir. Not enough time : )

May you one day see the light, anyway have a good one enjoying your blissful ignorance

[CHEqTRO]

19 minutes ago, arkhangelsk2021 said:

Search for the below text in the article:

And don't give me free-to-fire logic. "At-will" employment is American that doesn't have play in Europe. In Europe, for better or worse, workers have rights, and you can only fire for cause. Refusing to do express a stance in a subject clearly not work-related does not cut it.

Okey, this is getting ridiculous so I am going to answer to this and then stop cluttering this what once was a thread about the course of the war and its strategic implications instead of the stupid dumpsterfire that it is now:

If he gets fired, then, as any other person, he will get his due compensation. As any other european fired form his job ever. Or dou you think that every time one european gets fired from his job we call the human rights tribunal at Geneva? There is nothing stopping anyone from firing other person, the problem is that then said person gets a compensation. That is of course if the guy had a contract, if not, there is no obligation to do so.

So yeah, I repeat myself now again, what exact right is being infringed here, and how, that you have been dodging this question because you know that what you wrote was stupid demagogy, dont think that we didnt notice, all of this equate to westerners denying their rights to Russians as a whole?

[Mft004]

Just now, Lethaface said:

May you one day see the light, anyway have a good one enjoying your blissful ignorance

Right back at you : ) But don't forget we're technically NATO buddies; one day a politician might conscript the three of us into a trench outside Berlin. We can play poker, debate Homer and dwell on happier times.

[Lethaface]

Just now, Mft004 said:

Right back at you : ) But don't forget we're technically NATO buddies; one day a politician might conscript the three of us into a trench outside Berlin. We can play poker, debate Homer and dwell on happier times.

If that would happen I'd persuade you in no time, in case that's still necessary by then. For now let's leave it and focus on the proceedings in Ukraine.

[Aragorn2002]

6 hours ago, arkhangelsk2021 said:

In fact, right now, I happen to live in a country that the United States happen to be very "philic" with. That country has gotten away with launching a full blown surprise attack with multiple armies on American troops executing a UN mandate and suffered no more than some sanctions, breaking the precedent that a surprise attack on American forces is awarded with nukes. That country has attacked four countries yet has received surprisingly little condemnation globally. That country was even accused of genocide (by Western authorities) ... yet overall surprisingly little happened to it.

In my jurisdiction, I have seen the penalties for a peaceful gathering increase to over nine months, even a year, when a few years back it would have been community service. We are now under risk for saying the "wrong things", so I hope you can forgive me for not answering Aragorn's question re Taiwan. Don't worry too much about Ukraine, though, the country's position is sufficiently ambivalent that both sides are safe. In comparison, Russia is almost starting to look decent in human rights. 15 days administrative offense is not a lot compared to 10 years criminal sentence.

Except this analogy does not represent it. Suppose we had a bad marriage so after some time, I agree we can divorce. I even send you some aid beyond whatever is legally mandated and give you some business as a forwarder (which is an indirect way of giving you even more aid). You react by being as unfriendly to me as possible and even embezzling the stuff I've entrusted you to forward, causing me to lose reputation with my customers. Do you think the judge might at least be inclined to consider the circumstances if one day I lost my temper and hit you?

  

It's a memorandum. it's not legally binding, and if anything, the Americans were the one that put a hole in it first by making a distinction between "government" and "people" and justifying it in terms of "human rights". Like a war, sanctions might be targeted at the government, but it's the people that suffer.

But let's discuss the essence of the situation. Suppose I make the promise not to hit you. Normally, you'd expect that promise to hold. How much should you expect that promise to be impenetrable if you stole my stuff or you start breaking laws yourself?

So where do you live? Just curious. China?

[Mft004]

Just now, Lethaface said:

If that would happen I'd persuade you in no time, in case that's still necessary by then. For now let's leave it and focus on the proceedings in Ukraine.

Yes a good plan.

[arkhangelsk2021]

4 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

So yeah, I repeat myself now again, what exact right is being infringed here, 

Oh how about the rights to conscience and the rights to freedom of expression. If you can't even choose not to speak up, you have neither. And anyone that thinks measly compensation can really do more than take the worst bite off a firing is just kidding himself. But let's try it this way, how OK would you be if an American company ordered one of its employees to denounce the Iraq War, or else. That would at the very least be very controversial.

1 minute ago, Aragorn2002 said:

So where do you live? Just curious. China?

Hong Kong, to be exact, but yes, China. "One-China" and all that, after all (unless, of course, it's to complain about the US failing to recognize HK as a separate customs zone to the WTO )

Edited February 28, 2022 by arkhangelsk2021

[Battlefront.com]

14 minutes ago, Baneman said:

Lots of governments give minorities a hard time.

Even in my case, I ( and many others ) here in Scotland feel that the UK government is stripping us of rights.
We tried a legal referendum about independence and may try another soon.

We didn't try armed insurrection or invite someone to invade the UK over it.
I could also leave and move to a country where I agreed more with the government's policies.

And to keep that going, you didn't one day wake up and find that Russia had invaded Scotland, claimed to be Scottish but were Russian special services (GRU/FSB), paid your criminal gangs to take up arms supplied by Russia, welcomed mercenaries from Russia (some neo-Nazis, BTW), then when the UK forces pushed back, welcomed Russian Army forces in to bloody them, and for the next 8 years supported shelling UK held territory and then complained when they shelled yours.

This is the point that keeps getting skipped over by the Putin apologists.  What has been going on for the last 8 years in the Donbas had NOTHING TO DO WITH THE LOCAL POPULATION in any meaningful way.  This was all done by Russia for Russian interests.  The locals in the Donbas that were genuinely pro Russia was just a little icing on the cake.,

Steve

[CHEqTRO]

6 minutes ago, arkhangelsk2021 said:

Oh about the rights to conscience, the rights to freedom of expression. If you can't even choose not to speak up, you have neither. And anyone that thinks measly compensation can really do more than take the worst bite off a firing is just kidding himself. But let's try it this way, how OK would you be if an American company ordered one of its employees to denounce the Iraq War, or else. That would at the very least be very controversial.