How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[DesertFox]

Traktors are busy in Ukraine...

 

 

[Bulletpoint]

BBC:

"The Ukrainian leader also said authorities would release convicts with combat experience so that they could help defend the country.

"We have taken a decision which is not easy from the moral point of view, but which is useful from the point of view of our defences," he said."

 

My thoughts: This sounds like a bad idea, and it sounds pretty desperate. Will a couple of hundred (?) criminals really make a difference in a war where tens of thousands of civilians are already mobilised?

If the war is going well for Ukraine, why would they take such a step?

 

Edited February 28, 2022 by Bulletpoint

[Mft004]

11 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

What you call '2-sided coin' and 'open mindedness', I call dangerous and downright stupid, Mark. Personally I would ban all posters who dare to talk about 'balance' and 'Russin rights', now a whole people is suffering under under terror attacks and it's cities are shot to rubble by a rogue state. But tolerant as the West is, we also allow people like you to post their rubbish. And no, it ain't 'most of us', but just a handful of dubious characters with even more dubious motives. Like yourself actually.

Yeah, hard to find the other side of the coin in that, isn't it?

I will always find the other side of the coin. The question is, will you? Time will tell.

[CHEqTRO]

32 minutes ago, arkhangelsk2021 said:

As all too often, Westerners don't believe in Russians having rights:

https://www.theguardian.com/music/2022/feb/28/denounce-putin-or-lose-your-job-russian-conductor-valery-gergiev-given-public-ultimatum

 

The Russian state has declared open war against the west. What did you and the rest of russians expected? A note of concern with some vodzka? I do not think that common Russians in the west should be harassed in any way of form, but Putin cronies? They can go **** themselves.

Also, you are equating that some italians booed a Putin friend as that we westerners think that Russians dont deserve rights. Thats some mental gymnastics right there

Edited February 28, 2022 by CHEqTRO

[Molnár Norbert]

24 perccel ezelőtt CHEqTRO azt mondta:

 

 

Edited February 28, 2022 by Molnár Norbert

[CHEqTRO]

Seems like the Belorussian army is preparing to join the invasion. Due to its position near Brest, its likely they will try to cut off the Polish-Ukranian border, now that European lend-lease has turn into a reality. Lets see how the Belarussians perform. They have had more time to prepare their logistics than the initial Russian offensive, so I guess they will perform better? Also, as the tweet says, note the red square. We have a new symbol in our hands.

[arkhangelsk2021]

16 minutes ago, borg said:

Rights or no rights….

Look at how easily a Russian's rights get sidelined. Sigh.

Just FTR, I know that people are trying to paint up the Ukrainians as angels and the Russians would have been just fine under the Ukrainians. Well, there's something to be said about all this:

Quote

A 2012 law, called the law "On the principles of the State language policy" gave the status of regional language to Russian and other minority languages. It allowed the use of minority languages in courts, schools and other government institutions in areas of Ukraine where the national minorities exceed 10% of the population.

So, in the Yakunovich era, something like this was passed. It seems pretty reasonable, doesn't it? Where there are a significant minority, their language gets to be used as well as Ukrainian. Ukrainians are so accepting of diversity... oh wait.

Quote

According to its opponents, the law undermined and supplanted the role of the Ukrainian language, and violated Article 10 of the Ukrainian Constitution.

Really? Let's look at Article 10:

 

Quote

 

Article 10[edit]

The state language of Ukraine is the Ukrainian language.

The State ensures the comprehensive development and functioning of the Ukrainian language in all spheres of social life throughout the entire territory of Ukraine.

In Ukraine, the free development, use and protection of Russian, and other languages of national minorities of Ukraine, is guaranteed.

The State promotes the learning of languages of international communication.

The use of languages in Ukraine is guaranteed by the Constitution of Ukraine and is determined by law.

 

 

Do you see any obvious conflicts? They didn't do anything while Yakie was seated, but as soon as he left...

Quote

Immediately after the 2014 Ukrainian revolution, on 23 February 2014, the Ukrainian Parliament voted to repeal the law. This decision was vetoed by the acting President Oleksandr Turchynov, who instead ordered drafting of a new law to "accommodate the interests of both eastern and western Ukraine and of all ethnic groups and minorities."

well ... at least the new President is a mature person, but

Quote

 

However, in October 2014 the Constitutional Court of Ukraine started reviewing the constitutionality of the law,^[14] and on 28 February 2018 it ruled the law unconstitutional.

 

Really? By the way, these are the same people that legalized Yakie's ouster despite it objectively not meeting the criteria of Article 111:

Quote

The decision on the removal of the President of Ukraine from office by the procedure of impeachment is adopted by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine by no less than three-quarters of its constitutional composition, after the review of the case by the Constitutional Court of Ukraine and the receipt of its opinion on the observance of the constitutional procedure of investigation and consideration of the case of impeachment, and the receipt of the opinion of the Supreme Court of Ukraine to the effect that the acts, of which the President of Ukraine is accused, contain elements of state treason or other crime.

The percentage was seventy-three percent. You might rationalize it as quite high, but the line was set high in the first place for a reason. Constitutional Court nevertheless OKed this. Let me have a few questions on their legal qualities.

Anyway, after this, first let us agree that we can at least distinguish between Russians living in Ukraine and Russian attackers or even ethnic Russian separatists in Ukraine. These Russians sided with Ukraine. If they did not side with Ukraine, DPR and LPR would be much bigger. Watch how they were rewarded:

In June 2019, the law ""On provision of the functioning of the Ukrainian language as the State language" Though its provisions were softened versus an even harsher early version, even Ukrainian sources were unable to resist but comment as follows:

Quote

This Law does not apply to the sphere of private communication and performance of religious rites (Article 2, Part 2). However, the concept of "private communication" is very vague and the law does not specify the scope of this term. For example, if people communicate in another language in a coffee shop, at a wedding or on the street, it is possible to interpret both private and public communication,

So how does this work out in practice. Consider the testimony answering this Quora question:

https://www.quora.com/In-Western-Ukraine-and-Kiev-is-it-now-taboo-to-speak-Russian-in-public

Compare the answers before 2019 and those in 2020.

Quote

Answered Jun 19, 2018
Well, i live in western part that considered “nationalistic” and “hating Russians”. IF you travel to Lviv you will meet a lot of Russian speaking tourists from Baltic or other ex-soviet countries. Can you visually distinguish a Russian speaking Estonian from Russian? No.

I consider myself as one who speaks Russian even better then some native speakers. There are several districts in my own city where relatives of ex-soviet military lives and they mostly speak Russian.

So, no Russian isn’t forbidden,tabooed, restricted, limited or persecuted for. Most kids while growing learn both and the more languages you know the more times you are human being.

Quote

Answered Jun 26, 2017
To my knowledge, no. My father is Ukrainian national and ethnic Russian, he of course understands Ukrainian, but does not speak it. He have had no problem whatsoever speaking Russian even the the westernmost parts of Ukraine (aroung Lvyv and further). He is very proud of it.

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Updated Jul 2, 2017 · Upvoted by Ira Serge, lives in Kyiv (2003-present)
I can assure you - it’s not!
I don’t know the source of this stereotype, but it is even fun to read about that.
[...]
But I guess you always have a chance to meet some bigots of Ukrainian nationalism and have some problems. The worst they can do - to say you something like “speak Ukrainian! it’s our language! Russian is the language of an occupant” but it’s a rarity and none of my friends have faced it.

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Answered Jun 28, 2017
As far as I know (from people who visited Western Ukraine recently), speaking Russian there is not a problem [...]

Quote

Answered Jun 28, 2017 · Upvoted by Roman Podolyan, Born and grew up in Kiev, still living in Kiev
While in Kiev last week, I see more people speaking Russian than Ukrainian.

not bad. Right? Now let's look at the answers from 2020:

 

Quote

Updated Aug 8, 2020

In general, it is OK, while sometimes locals can beat you. In video few tourists from Belarus, speaking Russian language, were beaten by local Ukrainian patriots becaue they mistaken them with Russians. Later patriots were detained by police, but later freed except one of them, accoding to news. Fortunately, such incidents are quite rare.

 

 

Quote

 

Answered Dec 14, 2020

In Kyiv (Ukrainian city, not Russian Kiev) a lot of people speak Russian language. Less, but still without any problem, people speak Russian language in any Ukraininian region in public. But official language is Ukraininan - all government documentation in Ukraininan.

 

 

Quote

 

Updated Dec 25, 2020

Not at all, choose the language you want, but….

In Western Ukraine you cant consider that everyone understands Russian. Why they should? Its a foreign language for them. They will try to understand you and even seek support from friends or persons around. It is not a taboo at all.

 

 

Quote

 

Answered Oct 10, 2020 · Upvoted by 

Oleksandr Ivanov

, lives in Kyiv (1971-present)

 

Everyone in the show’s translation spoke Ukrainian, the Dog was speaking Ukrainian too. But the Cat was speaking Russian! This was before the law was passed requiring everything to be dubbed in Ukrainian (currently even the Russian has to be translated to Ukrainian on TV or cinema), so they decided to make this clever detail. Everyone understood it quite naturally as a metaphor of Russian-Ukrainian relationship, where both Russian-speaking Cat and Ukrainian-speaking Dog are so different and so sick and tired of each other, but bound together and don’t really have a choice but to be together. Just as it is in real life with both countries.

...

There are some Ukrainian-speaking people that would argue you shouldn’t speak Russian as it is unpatriotic. ...

 

 

Quote

 

Answered Nov 7, 2020

Of course not. Do you have an overdose of Russian TV or something?

 

 

Do you note a change in the tenor of the answers? Yes, it's slow. It's subtle, but it is happening - the status of Russians in Ukraine is progressively being reduced. One step at a time, and this is reflected in both the official law and testimonies.

[CHEqTRO]

12 minutes ago, Molnár Norbert said:

Yet I knew Westerners were tolerant. I don't think it bothered when the Ukrainians terrorized the minorities !? 

XDDD What terrorized minorities? Where are all the oppressed Ukranians going to receive with flowers the Russian liberators? Have you seen what has been the reaction of the Russian speaking populace till now, even in regions like Mariupol, Odessa and Kharkiv? They do not seem too happy with their liberation. I am sure that there are people in the citie of Donestk and Luhansk with valid grievances towards Kyiv, but that you tell me that Ukraine its terrorizing its population? XDDDDDD

12 minutes ago, Molnár Norbert said:

 You're more likely to learn Arabic .... dude

XDDDDDDDDDD

One more for Bingo

One thing that surprised me about the invasion, is that, in contrary to what I expected, there was not a huge push for the control of the narrative from the Pro-russian part. As like they were shocked and thrown of guard by the invasion. I was expecting a huge influx of bots, and recently made accounts to came with the old slogans and the old-ass propaganda that we were accostumed. Yet, there was nothing.

Unfortunetly, it seems the army of the recently made accounts has finally made its appearence, as I started seeing it active both in Twitter, Reddit, and other forums, were they had remained somewhat silent till now. It seems thay have decided to make their appearence in this humble forums as well  

Edited February 28, 2022 by CHEqTRO

[The_MonkeyKing]

Civilian targets being hit more and more:
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2022/02/27/ukraine-conflict-tracking-use-of-cluster-munitions-in-civilian-areas/

this is heading towards Grozny and Aleppo

[arkhangelsk2021]

34 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

The Russian state has declared open war against the west.

No they didn't. They declared war against Ukraine. The West chose to interpret it as an "open war" against them. They can say it defies everything the West believes in, but even if that's so, that's still a choice of the West.

Quote

Also, you are equating that some italians booed a Putin friend as that we westerners think that Russians dont deserve rights. Thats some mental gymnastics right there

It's not the part where they booed. Perhaps you felt it not cost-effective to read the entire (short) passage, but most people at least read the headlines.

[DesertFox]

 

 

[John Kettler]

2 hours ago, Falaise said:

I would like to congratulate everyone for the quality of the information and the analyzes carried out on this thread. I have been devouring it for several days now even if it develops faster than I have time to watch it

Z tout seul: forces provenant de russie

Z dans carré: forces de crimée

O forces venant de Biélorussie

V infanterie de marine

X tchétchènes

A forces spéciales

Falaise,

Don't know where this originated, but it sure is helpful. In English it loosely reads

Z alone, forces from Russia            
Z with square, forces from Crimea
O forces from Belarus
V marine infantry
X Chechens
A special forces

Got Z right, Z with square partially right (was Russian) and partially wrong (Crimea fail), O right (conclusion by entry point and historical Soviet ID markings for operational strategic offensives); but had no idea and offered no opinions on V, X, and A. 

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited February 28, 2022 by John Kettler

[CHEqTRO]

10 minutes ago, arkhangelsk2021 said:

No they didn't. They declared war against Ukraine. The West chose to interpret it as an "open war" against them. They can say it defies everything the West believes in, but even if that's so, that's still a choice of the West.

Sigh. Ukraine its a country wich has made its intention to join both the EU and NATO clear, and this desire has been generally aknowledged by the west.

A direct invasion against a sovereign country form another which has decided that it doenst deserve such sovereignity, is a threat to the mantainment of international law which mantains the current western dominated world order. All previous war till now could have been sold as civil wars for the most part, and the actual state agains state wars were extremily rare and outside of Europe.

Ukraine economy its entwined with the economies of Germany and Poland, and hence the EU. Its lost to a power, who has for the last 15 years tried to destroy the EU from inside, has comitted political murder on our soil, and blackmails us with gas would be a security threat to those countries.

The security situation of Rumania, Poland and the Baltic states deteriorates drastically if Ukraine falls, all of them EU countries and as such, the EU and NATO in general.

This is just to sum up, so yeah, first of all, Ukraine IS part of the west. Second of all, Putin had already declared war to our countries a long time ago. The difference is that European politicians can no longer hide from that fact. Hence the change in police from Germany and France

Also, yeah, I do not know if you have read my post as well, but I will repeat myself, I do not see why Putin cronies, who have sustented in Power, and have indirectly or directly allowed this war to happen, should have any sympaty, really; and I do not see how that is thinking that russians deserve no rights

Edited February 28, 2022 by CHEqTRO

[John Kettler]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

Traktors are busy in Ukraine...

 

 

DesertFox,

SA-8/B(or+)/GECKO 9K33/OSA TELAR. Has to be at least a SA-8/B, because B was the first version with launch canisters for the missiles. Before that they were on launch rails. Whose TELAR was/is this one? Don't see any ID markings, and the TELAR looks intact and in road march configuration, lacking only the special canvas cover.

On the humorous side, I simply must post this!
 

Regards,

John Kettler

 

Edited February 28, 2022 by John Kettler

[Aragorn2002]

1 hour ago, Mft004 said:

I will always find the other side of the coin. The question is, will you? Time will tell.

I've looked at both sides and I think my side is a lot prettier and cleaner.

[DesertFox]

3 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

O forces from Belarus

Yep that one is confirmed I think. Look at the pictures from Senkovka (Belorus border)

 

 

[Mft004]

2 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

I've looked at both sides and I think my side is a lot prettier and cleaner.

Glad to hear it; if more people do the comparison, we'll get somewhere.

[Molnár Norbert]

19 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

Sóhaj. Ukrajna olyan ország, amely világossá tette az EU-hoz és a NATO-hoz való csatlakozási szándékát, és ezt a vágyat a nyugat általában is elismerte.

Egy olyan szuverén ország elleni közvetlen invázió, amely úgy döntött, hogy nem érdemli meg ezt a szuverenitást, veszélyt jelent a nemzetközi jog fenntartására nézve, amely fenntartja a jelenlegi nyugati uralta világrendet. Az összes eddigi háborút nagyrészt polgárháborúként lehetett volna eladni, az államháborúk elleni tényleges állapot pedig rendkívül ritka és Európán kívüli volt.

Ukrajna gazdasága összefonódik Németország és Lengyelország gazdaságával, és így az EU-val. Elveszítette egy olyan hatalom, amely az elmúlt 15 évben belülről próbálta tönkretenni az EU-t, politikai gyilkosságot követett el a földünkön, és a gázzal való zsarolás biztonsági fenyegetést jelentene ezen országok számára.

Románia, Lengyelország és a balti államok biztonsági helyzete drasztikusan romlik Ukrajna bukásával, ezek mindegyike EU-tag, és mint ilyen, az EU és általában a NATO.

Ez csak összefoglalva, tehát igen, először is Ukrajna a nyugat része. Másodszor, Putyin már régen hadat üzent országainknak. A különbség az, hogy az európai politikusok már nem bújhatnak el e tény elől. Ezért változott a rendőrség Németországból és Franciaországból

És igen, nem tudom, hogy olvastad-e a bejegyzésemet, de ismétlem magam, nem értem, miért kellett volna Putyin cimboráinak, akik fenntartották a hatalmat, és közvetve vagy közvetlenül hagyták, hogy ez a háború megtörténjen. tényleg bármilyen együttérzés; és nem értem, hogy ez hogyan gondolja azt, hogy az oroszok nem érdemelnek jogokat

And when Ukraine introduced the language law? And the atrocities valued the Hungarians! So where were you, where was the eu? Ukraine also threatens to reach Budapest within two hours. Corrupt gang, mafia sitting in their parliament. Fascist gang.

Edited February 28, 2022 by Molnár Norbert

[arkhangelsk2021]

13 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

Also, yeah, I do not know if you have read my post as well, but I will repeat myself, I do not see why Putin cronies, who have sustented in Power, and have indirectly or directly allowed this war to happen, should have any sympaty, really; and I do not see how that is thinking that russians deserve no rights

I don't expect you to drip in sympathy. I expect you, as a Westerner purporting to uphold rights, to uphold this guy's right to at least choose silence as his response. The article does not say he's singing the praises of Putin or anything of that sort. It's when we have to defend the rights of those we might not like very much, to resist the urge to punch those we don't like, or maybe even suffer a real penalty from upholding them, that we demonstrate our commitment to rights.

In this instance, the Russians have certainly displayed the limitations of their ability to respect Ukraine's sovereignty. However, as I point out, their ability to respect Ukraine's sovereignty in the face of adversity is not zero either. It's just not as high as you like, and perhaps not as high as objectively should be.

And if you can't even defend the right of this guy just for inconveniencing the West to the extent that they can't use his testimony as a propaganda, how can you reasonably and fairly expect anyone else to value the rights of other entities, when your own ability to do so is so near zero?

[John Kettler]

1 hour ago, CHEqTRO said:

Seems like the Belorussian army is preparing to join the invasion. Due to its position near Brest, its likely they will try to cut off the Polish-Ukranian border, now that European lend-lease has turn into a reality. Lets see how the Belarussians perform. They have had more time to prepare their logistics than the initial Russian offensive, so I guess they will perform better? Also, as the tweet says, note the red square. We have a new symbol in our hands.

CHEqTRO,

Since this marking, based on what I can see, at least, isn't on the door or the side of any of these vehicles, I believe this is a way to instantly identify a member of the march column, so that the entire serial arrives intact, rather than potentially have part of the column unwittingly wind up in a different one by simply following any truck ahead, if other trucks not part of the serial wind up in the column but later veer off, potentially screwing up the entire plan in the process. Shall be most interested to see whether or not there's also a solid red square on the truck's front. It's also possible that positioning of that square may be significant, too, such as defining a particular route to be taken by, say, a particular part of the column.

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited February 28, 2022 by John Kettler

[CHEqTRO]

7 minutes ago, arkhangelsk2021 said:

I don't expect you to drip in sympathy. I expect you, as a Westerner purporting to uphold rights, to uphold this guy's right to at least choose silence as his response. The article does not say he's singing the praises of Putin or anything of that sort. It's when we have to defend the rights of those we might not like very much, to resist the urge to punch those we don't like, or maybe even suffer a real penalty from upholding them, that we demonstrate our commitment to rights.

In this instance, the Russians have certainly displayed the limitations of their ability to respect Ukraine's sovereignty. However, as I point out, their ability to respect Ukraine's sovereignty in the face of adversity is not zero either. It's just not as high as you like, and perhaps not as high as objectively should be.

And if you can't even defend the right of this guy just for inconveniencing the West to the extent that they can't use his testimony as a propaganda, how can you reasonably and fairly expect anyone else to value the rights of other entities, when your own ability to do so is so near zero?

But what infringed rights are you talking about? They are asking for him to not play in an orchestra, not his ****ing head XDD

And still, how would this equate to the westerners not respecting the rights of Russians as a whole?

Edited February 28, 2022 by CHEqTRO

[Geoff-Ludumpress]

Seeing as we are discussing what the Russian strategy may be I thought some people may find this talk useful. PS: Starts at the 2.00>

 

[arkhangelsk2021]

2 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

But what infringed rights are you talking about? They are asking for him to not play in an orchestra, not his ****ing head XDD

Search for the below text in the article:

Quote

 

If Gergiev does not comply, Reiter said he would be fired as chief conductor of the Munich Philharmonic.

 

And don't give me free-to-fire logic. "At-will" employment is American that doesn't have play in Europe. In Europe, for better or worse, workers have rights, and you can only fire for cause. Refusing to do express a stance in a subject clearly not work-related does not cut it.

[Lethaface]

1 minute ago, arkhangelsk2021 said:

I don't expect you to drip in sympathy. I expect you, as a Westerner purporting to uphold rights, to uphold this guy's right to at least choose silence as his response. The article does not say he's singing the praises of Putin or anything of that sort. It's when we have to defend the rights of those we might not like very much, to resist the urge to punch those we don't like, or maybe even suffer a real penalty from upholding them, that we demonstrate our commitment to rights.

In this instance, the Russians have certainly displayed the limitations of their ability to respect Ukraine's sovereignty. However, as I point out, their ability to respect Ukraine's sovereignty in the face of adversity is not zero either. It's just not as high as you like, and perhaps not as high as objectively should be.

And if you can't even defend the right of this guy just for inconveniencing the West to the extent that they can't use his testimony as a propaganda, how can you reasonably and fairly expect anyone else to value the rights of other entities, when your own ability to do so is so near zero?

The irony is that you are making a large issue about someone who might lose his job because he doesn't speak out about the war (and it's not that he is dirt poor and needs those couple of EUR to feed his children). 

But on the other side of the coin are heavy Smerch MLRS cluster munitions targeting densely populated civilian area's, which you don't seem to have an issue with.

I think what we're seeing in Europe is that all those who were looking at both sides of the coin, have now seen that one side favors aggressive war under false pretenses with megalomaniac claims about 'one people, one empire' while the other is defending their country against the aggression.

 Ukraine is a country with a lot of corruption among other issues, but that doesn't make them deserving of being invaded and occupied; they haven't invaded any parts of Russia so the talk about self defense / security is just simply BS.

Your moral compass seems to have been lost long ago. If you feel for the orchestra director, send him some money. Ours will go to the Ukrainians defending their country against his dictator friend.

[John Kettler]

41 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Civilian targets being hit more and more:
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2022/02/27/ukraine-conflict-tracking-use-of-cluster-munitions-in-civilian-areas/

this is heading towards Grozny and Aleppo

The_MonkeyKing,

Shelling the Equator looks more to me like submunitions detonating than it does artillery fire, though the issue may simply be that much of the detonation is blocked by the building heights, making the explosions look smaller. The blanketing of explosions fairly screams submunitions.

On a lighter note, there are plenty of people who hate shopping malls, but isn't this a bit extreme?!

Regards,

John Kettler