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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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9 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Hmm, yes. Never understood why Hong Kong was 'given back'.

Because (aside from the legal fiction of the 99 year lease and its expiration, or the morality of claiming to own a small bit of China a few thousand miles away) the UK understood they had no hope of holding on to it if China decided to retakes it by force. So a negotiated handover kept the peace and saved diplomatic face. 

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Just now, TheVulture said:

Because (aside from the legal fiction of the 99 year lease and its expiration, or the morality of claiming to own a small bit of China a few thousand miles away) the UK understood they had no hope of holding on to it if China decided to retakes it by force. So a negotiated handover kept the peace and saved diplomatic face. 

Now I understand.

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1 hour ago, CHEqTRO said:

Yeah, he seems that since the start of COVID is extremely paranoid of getting close to people. That surely is not helping  its mental health, thats for sure.

It's fascinating to see how afraid everone is, during meetings and discussions with Putin. Even his chief of the security service. Fear easily changes into hate, so there's also hope on that front.

Edited by Aragorn2002
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2 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

Ukrainians have shown themselves to be very brave, but by arming civilians, Ukraine has also blurred the distinction between combatants and non-combatants, and I fear this will lead to really bad things down the road.

 

The only way this isn't REALLY bad down the road is if the Russians quit and go home. The Ukrainians are fighting as hard as anyone ever has, near as makes no matter. The Russians are starting to use MLRS systems against populated areas, next they will start in with one of their fuel-air atrocities. Before this is over Ukrainian teenage girls are going to be blowing themselves up at Russian checkpoints to take a few Russians to hell with them, unless the Russians GO HOME. Bleeping Bleep people this is an awful mess to make over one old guys delayed midlife crisis. It is a god awful tragedy for 99.999% of Russians, too. Real value of Every asset in Russia is off by 80% this morning, By Friday it might be 95%. FOR WHAT?

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Russian spokesperson delivering rambling address where he flat out denies Russia is bombarding civilian areas.. apparently he didn't check his Twitter so he must have missed the many videos of rocket launcher attacks on apartment buildings, shopping malls, etc.

Edited by Bulletpoint
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2 hours ago, Pelican Pal said:

Zelensky's statement over prisoners doesn't look great. But I'd venture that the Ukrainian manpower position doesn't look great either especially if the fighting continues for days longer. The front is quite long and it is looking like Belarusian troops are being mobilized.

I've tentatively suspected that the arming of all and sundry in the cities was partially a ploy to keep mobile combat forces active outside the cities. To hold Kharkiv, for example, the Ukrainians must hold a 350 kilometer line of supply back to the Dnepr. Releasing prisoners into service would act in a similar way by allowing troops capable of mobile combat to not be bothered with holding relatively static positions.

Being very charitable jails will be filled with people who are either petty criminals or who have made one time mistakes. While they may be unpleasant in civil society that doesn't make them bad soldiers in a pinch especially when you consider that most of these people will have presumably served their conscription term.

And it isn't just the people in the jails, it is the people to run the jails, the military to defend the jails if they are in inconvenient places. This won't be the last very hard, but very necessary decision Zelensky has to make.

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1 hour ago, Aragorn2002 said:

I think for the West, especially Europe this is a decisive moment. If we back up now, we're lost. And betray all our ideals, where many people died and suffered for. As I said before, we have to DO something. So yes, a corridor, a NOFLY-zone and no fear for nuclear threats. The future and freedom of Europe and the rest of the free world is at stake.

“Though much is taken, much abides; and though We are not now that strength which in old days Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are; One equal temper of heroic hearts, Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.”

Alfred Lord Tennyson

 

I would argue for taking a stand before Kyiv is the next Warsaw Ghetto, instead of after. Because we are going to have to take a stand.

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13 minutes ago, Erwin said:

This this WSJ map is accurate, Russia has its "land bridge" to Crimea.  Could be this is their "win" and all else is distraction(?)

 

OG-GE768_614eef_700PX_20220228094134.jpg

Areas penetrated by Russian ground troops (as of Sunday)

 

 

 

Definitely not THE win, but could be A win. Kyiv has IMO always been an important goal, as the leaded triumphal declaration suggests the political outcome was supposed to be to turn Ukraine into another Belarus. Probably the Russians will be very difficult to remove from this land bridge now that they have it, unless of course Putin agrees to cut the DR/LR loose. 

Regarding peace:

 

I have seen some people poo-pooing this proposal on twitter, and if accurate the rhetoric is extreme. But if we just sanitize the demands a bit, its an interesting proposal. No mention of DR/LR, just recognition of Crimea. Implication being that Putin is ready to throw them to the wolves? Demilitarization and Denazification are inflammatory rhetoric, but what they exactly mean could be pretty squishy. Putin could just as easily declare Ukraine denazified as he declared it was the fourth reich. And demilitarization could me a lot of things. Complete demilitarization? Elimination of long range missile systems or air power? Removal of western arms? And neutrality may well come to stand in for 'no NATO.' 

That is to say, I think that you can read into these talking points whatever you want to hear. Either Putin is stalling for time and is sabotaging negotiations but adhering to unrealistic rhetoric, or hes opening up a path out of the conflict in a way that saves some face by demanding recognition of said unrealistic rhetoric. Almost certainly all parties at the diplomatic table will assume the rhetoric is just that and move forward, and well see in a couple days whether Putin was serious or stalling. 

Also re: neutrality. If they dont call it the Abe Lincoln brigade I'll be disappointed. Konrad Adenauer brigade maybe? Well workshop a name. 

 

Edited by BeondTheGrave
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6 hours ago, Falaise said:

I would like to congratulate everyone for the quality of the information and the analyzes carried out on this thread. I have been devouring it for several days now even if it develops faster than I have time to watch it

m5j2.png

Z tout seul: forces provenant de russie
Z dans carré: forces de crimée
O forces venant de Biélorussie
V infanterie de marine
X tchétchènes
A forces spéciales

Kadyrovs Chechen fighters are not infanterie de marine? In the second Video, you clearly see the V on the doors of the aromured cars. And the severly devasted VDV unit showed earlier, with lots of destroyed BMD 2, and BTR-D´s also had V markings.

Edit: Found the VDV video with V markings

 

 

 

Edited by Armorgunner
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37 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The only way this isn't REALLY bad down the road is if the Russians quit and go home. The Ukrainians are fighting as hard as anyone ever has, near as makes no matter. The Russians are starting to use MLRS systems against populated areas, next they will start in with one of their fuel-air atrocities. Before this is over Ukrainian teenage girls are going to be blowing themselves up at Russian checkpoints to take a few Russians to hell with them, unless the Russians GO HOME. Bleeping Bleep people this is an awful mess to make over one old guys delayed midlife crisis. It is a god awful tragedy for 99.999% of Russians, too. Real value of Every asset in Russia is off by 80% this morning, By Friday it might be 95%. FOR WHAT?

Some of them are already doing that by themselves...:

 

45 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

It's fascinating to see how afraid everone is, during meetings and discussions with Putin. Even his chief of the security service. Fear easily changes into hate, so there's also hope on that front.

The face of Shoigu yesterday said it all, really.

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