How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[DesertFox]

1 minute ago, CHEqTRO said:

 I repeat myself now again, what exact right is being infringed here

No rights are infringed at all. The article is a pure strawman. Marcus Felsner is managing the performances of the conductor over europe. So the contractual relationship between the two usually is on private law and revenue share basis per lifeperformance.

[chuckdyke]

If you use you too in your argument you are admitting already, you're wrong.

[BeondTheGrave]

4 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

To be honest I feel this way about most of the posts in here since last night. Lots of arguing, little new info or new analysis. 

edit: dont waste your reactions on me, Haiduk will be back soon. 

Edited February 28, 2022 by BeondTheGrave

[John Kettler]

24 minutes ago, arkhangelsk2021 said:

Normally, rights are protected by people achieving self-restraint. If rights are protected in court, by this analogy Ukraine should go to court and get a ruling saying that the Russians' actions are illegal.

Don't be stupid. The primary line of defense for rights is always the front line - from individual to individual, bosses to subordinates, or one step removed the local official versus the private citizen. Courts are only a better than nothing remedy.

And sorry @Doc844 , got a bit carried away answering points there. Returning to the main topic:

The good news for the Ukrainians is that they stopped the Russians, but it seems the Russians have managed to make progress again.

archangelsk2021,

Am confused! How can the UA have stopped the Russians, yet they are still making progress? Did the UA stop the Russians, hold for a time, then lose some ground? If not, what happened?

Regards,

John Kettler

[borg]

Guys - sorry if I sound like a duck head…

 

but FFS, RUS (or Putin ) have increased another level for nuclear war.  https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-russia-war-latest-news-putin-nuclear-deterrent-invasion-belarus-live-updates-12541713?postid=3442129#liveblog-body

Why all these threats - to the WORLD ?

Edited February 28, 2022 by borg

[Bulletpoint]

Ukrainians have shown themselves to be very brave, but by arming civilians, Ukraine has also blurred the distinction between combatants and non-combatants, and I fear this will lead to really bad things down the road.

 

[Lethaface]

Back to the war, I'd guess that only shooting up Kharkiv and Kiev won't do much alone to degrade Ukraines defenses or it's resolve to resist. 

Russia would need to also send much more reserves to go with them and do the close in fighting while protecting their supply lines (this time).

Another axis opened up by Belarus might be more threatening, if Ukraine can't muster a solid defense on that axis.

Also the south looks dangerous. 

[chuckdyke]

1 minute ago, Bulletpoint said:

but by arming civilians, Ukraine has also blurred the distinction between combatants and non-combatants

You must be joking it is the duty of every civilian to protect his country and his dwelling.

 

[Cpl Steiner]

Quite a few Media reports talk about the Ukrainians repulsing Russian attacks on Kyiv and Kharkiv but I find them a bit disingenuous as the Russian forces repulsed appear to be just small reconnaissance units. I don't think the Russians have even started the main assault on these cities yet. A 12 km long convey of armour heading towards Kyiv has been spotted by satellite and this would appear to be the main assault force.

[Cpl Steiner]

5 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Ukrainians have shown themselves to be very brave, but by arming civilians, Ukraine has also blurred the distinction between combatants and non-combatants, and I fear this will lead to really bad things down the road.

 

I saw a US Media reporter say that two journalists were killed when armed civilians shot up their car believing them to be saboteurs - so, yes. [Edit] Not probably the "bad things" you had in mind but untrained civilians with AKs and fear of spies and saboteurs in their midst is a bad combination.

Edited February 28, 2022 by Cpl Steiner

[arkhangelsk2021]

9 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

archangelsk2021,

Am confused! How can the UA have stopped the Russians, yet they are still making progress? Did the UA stop the Russians, hold for a time, then lose some ground? If not, what happened?

Regards,
John Kettler

You can go to the map and check that dot. Generally, I give weight to the geographical positions of the dots. Note how far that dot is from the estimated controlled area of the Russians. So the Ukrainians eventually stopped some Russian column, at least for now, but not before they managed to make significant headway.

But you can certainly share with us your interpretation of that dot.

[BeondTheGrave]

Just now, Lethaface said:

Another axis opened up by Belarus might be more threatening, if Ukraine can't muster a solid defense on that axis.

If I understand the geography right, Belarus has access to the western border of Ukraine. Maybe the real move here isn't to slam them in to Kyiv like people are thinking, but to become a 'border guard' choking off resupply from the west. I genuinely wonder if NATO is going to send in a 'peace keeping' force to western Ukraine to hold open the door. At this point I genuinely believe everything is on the table. Weve left the rule book, there are no rules. No precedents. No norms. 

[BeondTheGrave]

Another T-80 destroyed. Suspected to be from 4th TD

 

[Snols]

I'm afraid that Russian forces have drawn conclusions from last few days and changing tactics. Unfortunately, this implies a lot of damage to civilians

Meanwhile, this make my morning coffe almost land on my laptop screen. 

 

[CHEqTRO]

Unexpectedly, the peace agreements have as of now failed.

Either, like I said yesterday, they are going to double down until Ukraine capitulates, or they are going to see if they can achieve success in Mariupol, and take it before the peace talks, so they can push for taking control of the Full Donbass in the peace agreements. They could also be waiting to see what cames about the push from Brest to Western Ukraine. A cut-off from Poland would put Ukraine in a dangerous position.

[Lethaface]

3 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

If I understand the geography right, Belarus has access to the western border of Ukraine. Maybe the real move here isn't to slam them in to Kyiv like people are thinking, but to become a 'border guard' choking off resupply from the west. I genuinely wonder if NATO is going to send in a 'peace keeping' force to western Ukraine to hold open the door. At this point I genuinely believe everything is on the table. Weve left the rule book, there are no rules. No precedents. No norms. 

 

In order to cut off the main roads to Ukraine from Poland they'd need to make >300km progress, leaving open roads from Romania, Hungary and Slovakia to the south/southwest.

[Cpl Steiner]

I suspect all that will happen in the peace talks is that Russia will demand that Ukraine capitulates to save the lives that will soon be lost when the main Russian assaults on Kyiv and Kharkiv commence. It will be just a way of offloading responsibility for catastrophic destruction and loss of life onto the Ukrainian leadership.

[Cpl Steiner]

4 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

 

In order to cut off the main roads to Ukraine from Poland they'd need to make >300km progress, leaving open roads from Romania, Hungary and Slovakia to the south/southwest.

You could well be right there. Interdiction of all the truck loads of anti-tank weapons soon to be arriving on the border.

[BeondTheGrave]

2 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

 

In order to cut off the main roads to Ukraine from Poland they'd need to make >300km progress, leaving open roads from Romania, Hungary and Slovakia to the south/southwest.

Thanks for the follow up. Should have just looked it up myself lol. Seems like Lviv and Zhytomyr are the keys to keeping Kyiv supplied, but ultimately Russia has to push through the Ukrainian Carpathians as well. 

[Lethaface]

3 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

Thanks for the follow up. Should have just looked it up myself lol. Seems like Lviv and Zhytomyr are the keys to keeping Kyiv supplied, but ultimately Russia has to push through the Ukrainian Carpathians as well. 

Looking at the map I'd say unless there are virtually no UKR forces in the west, I don't think cutting of the West in a couple of days is something doable for Belarus / Rus forces from Belarus, if at all.

Edited February 28, 2022 by Lethaface

[Sarjen]

So the consensus here is that Putin will up the weight and contribute the next 1/4 of his forces to get Kyiv and Charkiw. He will start to attack the cities with artilley and cruise missiles while sending the army of Belarus to the west of Ukraine to cut them from supplies of the west.

What do you think will the West do, once the civilian casualties of the population become intolerable? Do you think NATO, EU or independent nations that border to Ukraine will act to hold a relief corridor open? Or declare the western half of Ukraine as a NOFLY-zone to protect the evacuees? Or do you think they will do nothing in fear of nuclear retaliation?

[Pelican Pal]

Zelensky's statement over prisoners doesn't look great. But I'd venture that the Ukrainian manpower position doesn't look great either especially if the fighting continues for days longer. The front is quite long and it is looking like Belarusian troops are being mobilized.

I've tentatively suspected that the arming of all and sundry in the cities was partially a ploy to keep mobile combat forces active outside the cities. To hold Kharkiv, for example, the Ukrainians must hold a 350 kilometer line of supply back to the Dnepr. Releasing prisoners into service would act in a similar way by allowing troops capable of mobile combat to not be bothered with holding relatively static positions.

Being very charitable jails will be filled with people who are either petty criminals or who have made one time mistakes. While they may be unpleasant in civil society that doesn't make them bad soldiers in a pinch especially when you consider that most of these people will have presumably served their conscription term.

[CHEqTRO]

8 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

Looking at the map I'd say unless there are virtually no UKR forces in the west, I don't think cutting of the West in a couple of days is something doable for Belarus / Rus forces from Belarus, if at all.

Maybe the intention is not so much to cut-off Poland form Ukraine (Althought they surely would like that), but to put pressure in Lviv. As the thing stands right now, if Kyiv falls, there is a big chance the Ukranian goverment will relocate to Lviv and keep on fighting. Maybe they think that if they start getting close to the Lviv, enough to put pressure on it, not even really take it or surround it, the Ukranian government would decide that going into the city is to risky and they either get out of the country, establishing a government in exile and thus losing legitimacy, or maybe even accept defeat.

It will tie forces in western ukraine that could be being used on the east or Kiev nonetheless, so that might be the reason, and not so much the territory itself

Edited February 28, 2022 by CHEqTRO

[DesertFox]

2 minutes ago, Sarjen said:

 Do you think NATO, EU or independent nations that border to Ukraine will act to hold a relief corridor open? 

Yes, I think exactly that will happen.

[Lethaface]

4 minutes ago, Sarjen said:

So the consensus here is that Putin will up the weight and contribute the next 1/4 of his forces to get Kyiv and Charkiw. He will start to attack the cities with artilley and cruise missiles while sending the army of Belarus to the west of Ukraine to cut them from supplies of the west.

What do you think will the West do, once the civilian casualties of the population become intolerable? Do you think NATO, EU or independent nations that border to Ukraine will act to hold a relief corridor open? Or declare the western half of Ukraine as a NOFLY-zone to protect the evacuees? Or do you think they will do nothing in fear of nuclear retaliation?

Not sure, I'd guess at some point (of indiscriminately targeting civilians) some countries might feel like stepping up. But not to start a nuclear conflict.