How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

I suppose it's nearly dawn in Ukraine.  I am guessing overnight Putin was threatening his generals w death if they don't take these cities ASAP.  Probably an ugly day.  Hopefully Haiduk is safe and getting some sleep. 

Kyiv still has supply lines open.  Will that be next move for Putin? -- closing the ring?  If he could do that, wouldn't he have already done that?  Or maybe the new forces are going to try? 

Not sure about Kharkiv. 

And have any of the new weapons arrived, I wonder?  It's a long one day drive from Poland (in peacetime), then distribution centers, then deliver to front lines or place in depots.  Unfortunately I have never hit anything in CMSF2 w a panzerfaust but that was always at a couple hundred meters or more.  In urban areas I bet it's a beast.

[danfrodo]

Weather goes above freezing each day in both Kyiv & Kharkiv.  Hopefully muddy as hell.

[Vet 0369]

46 minutes ago, arkhangelsk2021 said:

Oh, so you are not going to deal with the part about how Ukraine jabbed Russia? The theft of gas alone ... in an older era would probably suffice as a casus belli.

While we talking about that "stolen part", I might point out that's actually another tort on the part of Ukraine. Remember the Minsk accords, which of course Ukraine has not implemented and of course again the West condoned the behavior? Don't tell me how "unfair" it was to Ukraine ... the truth is that countries (in fact all legal entities) sign agreements to greater or lesser degrees of duress all the time, and they are still expected to execute them. If Ukraine actually gets a break for those duress causes in the Vienna Convention of Treaties, it would be the first time this was actually allowed in practice.

Let's not go the China route of "I can declare a treaty 'unfair' and thus it does not apply to me" stuff.

Wow, so Germany believed it faced a national security crisis, and thus it invaded Belgium, and you can accept that with relative ease, but when Russia believes it faces a national security crisis, you don't give it any weight? Russophobic. 

Let me zip it up by saying that's why I don't exactly lose my morality shirt over Russia v Ukraine. Ukraine has committed a number of acts that in an earlier age would have sufficed as casus belli. Since World War II, international law decided to formalize an immunity for nations against armed attack and I agree, Russia violated that. But it's not the same feeling as a truly blameless guy being kicked.

You seem to have forgotten the fact that Russi, with the USA, signed a treaty, or an agreement (I forget which, that if Ukraine gave up it’s nukes, Russia and the USA would respect it’s territorial integrity. Russia violated that in 2014 by supporting the separatists. 
 

Next treaty/agreement violation please.

[John Kettler]

Have posted this threads link to Twitter and explained why people need to be here reading it and watching the videos. The purpose of this video, posted largely for new arrivals to this thread, is to expose Russia's Big Lie about how it's fighting the current war, with the claim being it's using high-precision discriminate weapons. Here's the reality of what's being done, what most of the firepower really looks like.
 

 Regards,

John Kettler

[BeondTheGrave]

A detailed thread about yesterday's operational developments. 

An odd factor of this war, as I understand it the sun is now (~10:30 EST) rising over Ukraine. The war fighting is about to kick off again. But western media is still writing reports on yesterdays action. Information in the above thread is probably already outdated.

Another thought, land combat seems to most (but not completely) stop every night. The side which gets flooded with NVGs first seems like theyd have a decisive advantage. The US had plenty to ship to Afghanistan over the years, wonder if they could do the same to Ukraine. Could you imagine if the NLAW teams had NV capability? 

[danfrodo]

interesting pointsBeonTheGrave.  I suppose it's telling that russians don't seem to have the gear and or training for night fighting.  Without that they'd just get ambushed easier -- so hopefully they will try that.  Though in the cities the lights are still on, so would seem they could push into urban areas at night. 

[BeondTheGrave]

Quote

Virginia Senator Tim Kaine, on MSNBC: Starting to see indications of Russian troops refusing to go over the border into Ukraine.

Lets see if I can find a video. Edit: seems like everyone clipped every part of the interview except the interesting one. Is Kaine still on Armed Services? Anyway from the tenor of the conversation take this with a big grain of salt. When it comes to mutinies I'll believe it when I see it on video. He did compare Putin to Milosevic though, bold rhetoric. 

Also Reddit reports:

Quote

Moscow Exchange website currently down

https://www.moex.com/

 

Edited February 28, 2022 by BeondTheGrave

[BletchleyGeek]

As some seem to so curious about how things look from the RUS side of the fence... here's some footage filmed on the Donetsk front, yesterday, by a Catalan TV crew. It looks like the relevant Russian authorities are very carefully vetting who gets where to see what

https://www.ccma.cat/tv3/alacarta/telenoticies/combats-ferotges-ciutat-per-ciutat-al-donbass-nexpliquem-un-des-de-dins/video/6146265/

Contrast the highly curated experience of these journalists with the approach from the information strategy of the UKR side, where we're pretty much left to drink from the firehose. Al-Jazeera has some pieces in similar style.

The video is in Catalan, obviously, here are the main takeaways:

- Russian ministry of propaganda leads journalists in a convoy to a zone they have recently "liberated".

- They are taken to the site where an UKR truck was hit, with two UKR KIAs. Note that it is likely those persons have been there lying for some time.

- Then they visit a village, and interview a family hiding in their basement. They didn't have the means to leave their house as most of their neighbours and have spent 3 days hunkering down. Note that there's no men of arms bearing age in sight, only women and children.

- As the journos prepare to come back, a mortar barrage pins down everyone. On the way back, the Catalan journos give a lift to some officials of the fresh new Russian republics whose land rover got hit by the mortar barrage and destroyed.

How informative is all that about how well or badly is this war of aggression going? What it confirms to me is that UKR has very little chance to hold out in the East, they know it, and they are doing a fighting withdrawal, taking casualties and trading space for time. Besides the families of the servicemen killed on both sides, the ones who suffer are the people who gets caught in the middle. Any peace that comes out of this will probably mean significant changes in the borders of Ukraine. Is that victory? Probably whatever means conserving independence is.

The best source of information on UKR losses is... Wikipedia. UKR look serious given the more limited size of their force. The statistical outlier is that the ratio of prisoners to KIA/WIA reported sound to me like someone is counting every dead and wounded as a POW.

Some of the takes on the conflict, and how UKR "provoked" Russia by "stealing" gas, just check out the comprehensive article on Wikipedia (we'll see there's been some disputes about gas since the breaking apart of the Soviet Union) 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia–Ukraine_gas_dispute

and the bits of the most recent dispute

 

Quote

 

June 2014 gas supplies to Ukraine cut off[edit]

In an attempt at energy independence, Naftogaz signed a pipeline access deal with Slovakia's Eustream on 28 April 2014. Eustream and its Ukrainian counterpart Ukrtransgaz, owned by Naftogaz, agreed to allow Ukraine to use a never used (but aging, at 20 years old) pipeline on Slovakia's eastern border with Uzhhorod in western Ukraine. The deal would provide Ukraine with 3 billion cubic meters of natural gas beginning in autumn of 2014 with the aim of increasing that amount to 10 billion cubic meters in 2015.^[146]

On 1 April 2014 Gazprom cancelled Ukraine's natural gas discount as agreed in the 17 December 2013 Ukrainian–Russian action plan because its debt to the company had risen to $1.7 billion since 2013.^[148][149] Later that month the price "automatically" jumped to $485 per 1,000 cubic meters because the Russian government annulled an export-duty exemption for Gazprom in place since the 2010 Kharkiv Pact (this agreement was denounced by Russia on 31 March 2014^[150]).^[151][152] On 16 June 2014 Gazprom stated that Ukraine's debt to the company was $4.5 billion.^[151] On 30 May 2014 Ukraine paid $786 million to Gazprom.^[153]

After intermediary (that had started in May 2014^[151]) trilateral talks between EU Energy Commissioner Günther Oettinger, Ukraine and Russia failed on 15 June 2014 the latter halted (after a deadline of 10 a.m. Moscow time passed without it receiving payment^[151]) its natural gas supplies to Ukraine the next day.^[148] Unilaterally Gazprom decided that Ukraine had to pay upfront for its natural gas.^[154] The company assured that its supplies to other European countries would continue.^[154] Ukraine vowed to "provide reliable supply of gas to consumers in Ukraine and we will provide reliable transit to the European Union”.^[151] At the time about 15 percent of European Union's demand depended on Russian natural gas piped through Ukraine.^[151]

After trilateral months of talks between the European Union, Ukraine and Russia a deal was reached on 30 October 2014 in which Ukraine agreed to pay (in advance) $378 per 1,000 cubic metres to the end of 2014, and $365 in the first quarter (ending on 31 March) of 2015.^[155] Of its debts to Gazprom Ukraine agreed to pay of $1.45bn immediately, and $1.65bn by the end of 2014.^[155] It was agreed that the European Union will be acting as guarantor for Ukraine's gas purchases from Russia and would help to meet outstanding debts (using funds from existing accords with the European Union and IMF).^[155] The total package was worth $4.6bn.^[155] According to European Union officials the deal secured that there would be no natural gas supply disruptions in other European countries.^[155]

November 2015 gas supplies stop[edit]

On 25 November 2015 Gazprom halted its exports of Russian natural gas to Ukraine.^[156] According to the Ukrainian government they had stopped buying from Gazprom because Ukraine could buy natural gas cheaper from other suppliers.^[156] According to Gazprom it had halted deliveries because Ukraine had not paid them for the next delivery.^[156] Since then, Ukraine has been able to fulfil its gas supply needs solely from European Union states. In 2018 the Arbitration Institute of the Stockholm Chamber of Commerce ordered that Ukraine's Naftogaz should import 5 billion cubic meters of gas annually from Russia, as required under its 2009 contract with Russia's Gazprom.^[157] However, take-or-pay claims by Gazprom for 2009–2014 untaken gas volumes were rejected. On 28 February 2018, the Arbitration Institute of the Stockholm Chamber of Commerce ordered that Gazprom pay Naftogaz for failing to ship certain amounts of gas through Ukraine gas transmission system. The net result of all claims was that Gazprom was ordered to pay Naftogaz $2.56 bln.^[158] Gazprom disputed this award and fought it off in several European courts where Naftogaz was trying to enforce the award. In the end, a settlement of principle was reached in Berlin on 20 December 2019^[159] as part of wider trilateral talks between Gazprom, Ukraine and the European Commission on Russian gas transit through Ukraine.

 

So much for "stealing" sh*t, to be honest. 

 

 

[BeondTheGrave]

2 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

interesting pointsBeonTheGrave.  I suppose it's telling that russians don't seem to have the gear and or training for night fighting.  Without that they'd just get ambushed easier -- so hopefully they will try that.  Though in the cities the lights are still on, so would seem they could push into urban areas at night. 

It seems to be the case that outside of artillery exchanges the night battles have largely been relegated to Kyiv and the other cities.

[danfrodo]

yeah, that sounds too good to be true, so it'd be nice to somehow verify this.  But I guess if I were in a mutiny I might not video it.  Unlike certain folks I've seen, maybe these soliders wouldn't commit treason and then paste it all over facebook.

[db_zero]

18 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

yeah, that sounds too good to be true, so it'd be nice to somehow verify this.  But I guess if I were in a mutiny I might not video it.  Unlike certain folks I've seen, maybe these soliders wouldn't commit treason and then paste it all over facebook.

Back in the day I would agree with this, but these days people, especially the younger generation post stuff on social media that in the past would be unthinkable.

The internet and social media is an intelligence goldmine. Back in the day millions/billions was spend gathering HUMINT.

Today you just scan the internet and social media.

Edited February 28, 2022 by db_zero

[BeondTheGrave]

The graph speaks for itself

But can I just point out, 69.4% annualized inflation. 

[Zveroboy1]

58 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

New Wikimedia map just dropped. 

I am a bit reluctant to post this because really this is mostly idle amateur conjecture but while everybody seems to be focused on the capital and Kharkiv there are some interesting developments elsewhere. The wiki map while probably only a rough approximation at best looks a lot more realistic than the pro Russian maps that are circulating.

At first sight no major changes if you compare it to yesterday's situation. However a closer look could indicate that the Russians might achieve something in the south east along the coast of the sea of Azov, if they took or isolated Berdyansk as I have seen reported because it is only 60 kms or so from Mariupol and they might have already reached the south side of the Dnieper opposite Nikopol. It is all unconfirmed now however. But together with the Tokmak spearhead it would secure the northern flank of the push along the coast to some extent. I think this is a lot more likely to be the goal rather than a full encirclement of the the Ukrainian Donbas grouping. But the Ukrainian army is probably heavily dug in around Mariupol so it could be a tough nut to crack.

What's maybe strange is how the Donetsk and Luhansk separatists don't seem to participate much. Maybe they do but aren't achieving anything besides tying down Ukrainian forces?

And in the north east sector Russians are maybe making some significant progress too. It doesn't sound too far fetched that the two thrusts on each side of Kronotop might eventually link up with the new prong driving from the north toward Kyiv on the east side of the Dnieper.

But I don't see how Russians could take Kyiv and Kharkiv without some heavy shelling, something it appears they have been reluctant to do so far, in built up areas at least? Most likely because photos of building rubble wouldn't match too well with the narrative of a limited operation they have been spinning at home for internal Russian audience. Simply bypassing Kharkiv would make sense really.

[danfrodo]

6 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

The graph speaks for itself

But can I just point out, 69.4% annualized inflation. 

I don't know art, but I know what I like.  It's really important that these f-ing monsters, wherever they may be, are shown clearly that the cost is much higher than anything they hoped to gain.

[danfrodo]

thanks for that Zveroboy. ( I'm out of likes for today)

ELVIS:  I think we might need an increase in our likes allowance?

[Begemot]

Quote

You seem to have forgotten the fact that Russi, with the USA, signed a treaty, or an agreement (I forget which, that if Ukraine gave up it’s nukes, Russia and the USA would respect it’s territorial integrity. Russia violated that in 2014 by supporting the separatists. 

Said Vet 0369 above.

Vet you seem to have forgotten that the US and its European allies helped overthrow the democratically elected government of Ukraine in 2014. Remember Nuland's phone call, picking the soon to be installed new government of Ukraine? How is this supporting the integrity of Ukraine? It isn't, of course. The US breached this agreement, not Russia.

This war did not start this week. It has been ongoing since 2014. Just ask the people of Donbass what it's like to live under indiscriminate artillery bombardments for eight years. Any sympathy for these people?

[BeondTheGrave]

2 minutes ago, Zveroboy1 said:

I am a bit reluctant to post this because really this is mostly idle amateur conjecture but while everybody seems to be focused on the capital and Kharkiv there are some interesting developments elsewhere. The wiki map while probably only a rough approximation at best looks a lot more realistic than the pro Russian maps that are circulating.

At first sight no major changes if you compare it to yesterday's situation. However a closer look could indicate that the Russians might achieve something in the south east along the coast of the sea of Azov, if they took or isolated Berdyansk as I have seen reported because it is only 60 kms or so from Mariupol and they might have already reached the south side of the Dnieper opposite Nikopol. It is all unconfirmed now however. But together with the Tokmak spearhead it would secure the northern flank of the push along the coast to some extent. I think this is a lot more likely to be the goal rather than a full encirclement of the the Ukrainian Donbas grouping. But the Ukrainian army is probably heavily dug in around Mariupol so it could be a tough nut to crack.

What's maybe strange is how the Donetsk and Luhansk separatists don't seem to participate much. Maybe they do but aren't achieving anything besides tying down Ukrainian forces?

And in the north east sector Russians are maybe making some significant progress too. It doesn't sound too far fetched that the two thrusts on each side of Kronotop might eventually link up with the new prong driving from the north toward Kyiv on the east side of the Dnieper.

But I don't see how Russians could take Kyiv and Kharkiv without some heavy shelling, something it appears they have been reluctant to do so far, in built up areas at least? Most likely because photos of building rubble wouldn't match too well with the narrative of a limited operation they have been spinning at home for internal Russian audience. Simply bypassing Kharkiv would make sense really.

No I think your observations are fair. This is one of the worse days for the Ukrainians. Several Russian spear heads are in danger of linking up and consolidating their gains. A landing in Odessa also brings the war to western Ukraine, which has mostly been untrammeled. It suggests that the Russians are (slowly) learning their lessons and moving more slowly but more surely. 

That being said, I think much of the gains and the threatened regions may look worse than they actually are. I dont think, for example, that losing the north eastern border would really change the operational picture. If those roads had been valuable to Russia they would have been taken day one. AFAIK no major cities exist there. And as long as Ukrainian troops arn't pocketed I dont think the risk is very high. More threatening is the advanced on Mariupol. That city will be of considerable prestige value, and will certainly factor into negotiations regardless of which side controls it. Moreover if a southern linkup is achieved, the southern arm of the offensive is reduced from three operational directions (and again the mind boggles at the decision making process there) to two, with the Odessa axis being the most important.  But well see. Cities seem to be hard for Russia so its not going to be an easy fight. 

[BletchleyGeek]

8 minutes ago, Zveroboy1 said:

What's maybe strange is how the Donetsk and Luhansk separatists don't seem to participate much. Maybe they do but aren't achieving anything besides tying down Ukrainian forces?

The UKR Army had some serious fortifications there, but they were eventually forced out of them. Looks like a (for now) fighting withdrawal. The breakthrough towards Zhaporozhiy, Melitopol, along the Azov sea with the consequence of the likely encirclement of Mariupol will probably accelerate events there.

[dan/california]

14 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

thanks for that Zveroboy. ( I'm out of likes for today)

ELVIS:  I think we might need an increase in our likes allowance?

Yes, a lot. Just a wee bit busier than usual around abouts.

 

[Vet 0369]

7 minutes ago, Begemot said:

Said Vet 0369 above.

Vet you seem to have forgotten that the US and its European allies helped overthrow the democratically elected government of Ukraine in 2014. Remember Nuland's phone call, picking the soon to be installed new government of Ukraine? How is this supporting the integrity of Ukraine? It isn't, of course. The US breached this agreement, not Russia.

This war did not start this week. It has been ongoing since 2014. Just ask the people of Donbass what it's like to live under indiscriminate artillery bombardments for eight years. Any sympathy for these people?

If you’ve going to make accusations, please post proof that European and USA tormented and provided material support to the protesters to cause a change of leadership in Ukraine. Hey, maybe those Americans and Europeans were “on vacation.” It appears that would be OK, right?

[db_zero]

21 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

No I think your observations are fair. This is one of the worse days for the Ukrainians. Several Russian spear heads are in danger of linking up and consolidating their gains. A landing in Odessa also brings the war to western Ukraine, which has mostly been untrammeled. It suggests that the Russians are (slowly) learning their lessons and moving more slowly but more surely. 

That being said, I think much of the gains and the threatened regions may look worse than they actually are. I dont think, for example, that losing the north eastern border would really change the operational picture. If those roads had been valuable to Russia they would have been taken day one. AFAIK no major cities exist there. And as long as Ukrainian troops arn't pocketed I dont think the risk is very high. More threatening is the advanced on Mariupol. That city will be of considerable prestige value, and will certainly factor into negotiations regardless of which side controls it. Moreover if a southern linkup is achieved, the southern arm of the offensive is reduced from three operational directions (and again the mind boggles at the decision making process there) to two, with the Odessa axis being the most important.  But well see. Cities seem to be hard for Russia so its not going to be an easy fight. 

Looks like its a race between the Russians who are learning their lessons and Ukranians fighting for their homeland and waiting to receive more anti-tank and anti-aircraft systems from the West.

The Russians could learn from their lessons and be a more efficient fighting force, but if the Ukranians are in possession of the hundreds of stingers, Javelins, Panzerfausts, NLAWS, helmets, body armor and tactical radios being sent from the West then the Russian spearheads as well as the soft logistical tail that supports it will be extremely vulnerable.

IMO-the Russian wad is already shot.

Edited February 28, 2022 by db_zero

[akd]

1 hour ago, Begemot said:

Said Vet 0369 above.

Vet you seem to have forgotten that the US and its European allies helped overthrow the democratically elected government of Ukraine in 2014. Remember Nuland's phone call, picking the soon to be installed new government of Ukraine? How is this supporting the integrity of Ukraine? It isn't, of course. The US breached this agreement, not Russia.

This war did not start this week. It has been ongoing since 2014. Just ask the people of Donbass what it's like to live under indiscriminate artillery bombardments for eight years. Any sympathy for these people?

There were people on both sides of that line in Donbas getting hit with artillery. They don’t all long for the the lordship of Czar Putin. In fact now, most probably don’t.
 

Russia started a war in Ukraine, decided unilaterally to escalate, and now both countries are reaping the whirlwind.

Edited February 28, 2022 by akd

[BeondTheGrave]

6 minutes ago, db_zero said:

The Russians could learn from their lessons and be a more efficient fighting force, but if the Ukranians are in possession of the hundreds of stingers, Javelins, Panzerfausts, NLAWS, helmets, body armor and tactical radios being sent from the West then the Russian spearheads as well as the soft logistical tail that supports it will be extremely vulnerable.

IMO-the Russian wad is already shot.

Agreed. In isolation Russia would have the stronger position. But with western resupply who can say? It changes the game. I think its even bigger than a few missiles and body armor though. I mean if Poland is willing to revive the Ukrainian Air Force, what's the limit? Will some Bradleys fall off a truck next? It seems to me that the only limits are the west's ability to deliver systems and Ukraine's ability to get trained crews behind new toys. 

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, GAZ NZ said:

I watched a Ukraine soldier or civilian. ( unclear who) kill an unarmed Russian soldier lying behind a truck

I found it quite disturbing as the unarmed Russian had been on the back of the truck he jumped off under fire cowering by the truck as the Ukrainian advance shooting at him from the side

Was filmed from a building above looking down

Very clear

Ah, I think I know the one you mean.  Very well documented.  However, you seem to not understand that Geneva Convention does not cover people who engage in armed activities without using a uniform or, as was the case here, wearing the uniform of the opposing armed forces.  Yup, that Russian you saw get shot was wearing a Ukrainian uniform and driving a stolen Ukrainian vehicle.  The Strela that was following behind was Russian then ran over a civilian car while retreating (nearly killing the old man in it).

War is Hell and if you put on the uniform of the other side in an attempt to circumvent the rules of war, I have no sympathy at all for what happens.

4 hours ago, GAZ NZ said:

Another video  a car passes by a Russian convoy destroyed 

Bodies clothes are clean except shot to each head lined up. 2 Bodies behind each vehicle 

There were other vehicles with bodies around vehicles in distance 

Had to pause video to see 

Not convincing at all.   Your initial post made it seem you saw something conclusive, like some of the videos I watched at the time of Russia's first invasion of Ukraine.  Instead, your first citation is out of context and your second one has you playing a forensic expert from afar while looking at one very small slice of information taken on a cellphone.

What you apparently don't understand is that sometimes death is messy, sometimes it is quite neat.  I know of a guy in my town that was hit by a piece of metal probably no bigger than 3mm or so in size.  Went right through him and didn't even know it.  He told people he felt tired and went for a lie down.  He died and there was almost no blood outside, all inside.

You have absolutely no idea what you're looking at, so please don't claim that you do.

Steve

[db_zero]

2 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

Agreed. In isolation Russia would have the stronger position. But with western resupply who can say? It changes the game. I think its even bigger than a few missiles and body armor though. I mean if Poland is willing to revive the Ukrainian Air Force, what's the limit? Will some Bradleys fall off a truck next? It seems to me that the only limits are the west's ability to deliver systems and Ukraine's ability to get trained crews behind new toys. 

If the US and its allies couldn't subdue Iraq with nearly 300,000 troops which arguably were better trained, equipped and more efficient than the 190,000 Russian troops which have performed poorly to date in Ukraine which is roughly the size and more populated that Iraq, then I see little if no way the Russian can pull the rabbit out of the hat.

and the Ukranians will be in possession of vast amounts of far more sophisticated man portable anti-air and anti-take assets which tilts the favor even more in the Ukranians favor.

It may come down to the sanity of Putin and how desperate and far he is willing to go...