How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[db_zero]

I just watched a video about locals in Belarusia about their impressions of Russian troops recently on exercises there on the SE border.

”They drink a lot and sell a lot of their diesel fuel”.

nuf said.

[keas66]

13 minutes ago, GAZ NZ said:

I watched a Ukraine soldier or civilian. ( unclear who) kill an unarmed Russian soldier lying behind a truck

I found it quite disturbing as the unarmed Russian had been on the back of the truck he jumped off under fire cowering by the truck as the Ukrainian advance shooting at him from the side

Was filmed from a building above looking down

Very clear

I'm not trawling through the footage to find it, finding the # it was under but I've seen it was very clearly 2 days sgo

Another video  a car passes by a Russian convoy destroyed 

Bodies clothes are clean except shot to each head lined up. 2 Bodies behind each vehicle 

There were other vehicles with bodies around vehicles in distance 

Had to pause video to see 

It happens in war but its unfortunately all over social media 

Ive seen too much nasty stuff on there so just listening to reports and staying off all that 

I am unclear what the purpose of your post is ? Are you trying somehow to suggest that The Ukrainians are  carrying out  war crimes ? To what end ? To justify actions by the Russians ?

[DesertFox]

1 minute ago, akd said:

 and sharing it if you are not 100% certain of its provenance and veracity is adjacent to encouraging war crimes as it is how violence escalation cycles start.

What do you need? An official letter of prosecution by the prosecuting attorney?

Anyways, everbody can make up his/her mind. Sources are already plenty.

[BornGinger]

1 hour ago, akd said:

Russia is restoring its unity - the tragedy of 1991, this terrible catastrophe in our history, its unnatural dislocation, has been overcome. Yes, at a great cost, yes, through the tragic events of a virtual civil war... but there will be no more Ukraine as anti-Russia. Russia is restoring its historical fullness, gathering the Russian world, the Russian people together - in its entirety of Great Russians, Belarusians and Little Russians.

So what Putin in his statement is talking about as the reason for this conflict is a fantasy to restore the "Belorussian-Russian-Ukrainian-Slavic" people's unity as one nation and one people and restore the core of the Russian people into one large Great Russia.

This could be compared to what Hitler and the German government of the '30s wanted to do and actually did when they annexed parts of Czechoslovakia, Sudetenland, and made Austria the south-eastern part of the German Reich.

The difference is that many Germans and German speaking people in those areas actually wanted to be a part of Germany.

What I understand from what I have read about the conflict in Ukraine, many Russians living in Ukraine don't want to belong to Russia but want Ukraine to be an independent state and Ukrainians definitelly want to be independent from Russia.

Some Russians in Ukraine want to belong to Russia or be an independent small state of Russians in the south-east corner of Ukraine (like a mini ukraine to Ukraine - based on that the name Ukraine comes from the word "krai" which in Russian means "corner"). But that is of course not reason enough to copy what Germany did in the '30s and try to force the rest of the country to become a part of a Great Russia.

I wonder how many people that were used to write that statement in an attempt to have the Russian citisens "ok" this conflict.

[GAZ NZ]

So with negative economic political military impact on russia what is there to gain? 

I don't see anything 

There are no positive outcomes I can see 

Putins now talking nuclear and with everything going downhill fast It's a concern he might use this as an option 

Turkey is going to close off the Mediterranean passages 

And it could cause whatever truce on idlib to fail in Syria 

More escalations and a Nato country is involved With Turkey supporting those rebels

[db_zero]

16 minutes ago, keas66 said:

 

Edited February 28, 2022 by db_zero

[arkhangelsk2021]

10 minutes ago, db_zero said:

I just watched a video about locals in Belarusia about their impressions of Russian troops recently on exercises there on the SE border.

”They drink a lot and sell a lot of their diesel fuel”.

nuf said.

Heard that before, and I think that is the number 1 source of problems. As a Russian logistics officer, my reaction to what is happening would be YOU CAN'T BE OUT OF FUEL YET.

[John Kettler]

8 hours ago, DesertFox said:

There is no better target than a retreating enemy.

DesertFox and Haiduk,

Indeed. And with a firing range of 37.5 kms with standard projectiles and 55 kms with RAP (per Wiki), given typical convoy speeds and intervehicular separation in artillery- and airstrike-scared road march, even absent breakdowns, other UKR force attacks on the column, those Pions should be blazing away for quite some time to come, bringing the pain only a 203 can! Do the UA Pions have anything other than HE, such as FASCAM? Imagine the havoc those would cause when dropped right into the march serials. Speaking of Pions, do the Czechs (?) still have any, and if so, did they send any rounds for them in that ammo train?

Regards,

John Kettler

[akd]

6 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

What do you need? An official letter of prosecution by the prosecuting attorney?

It should actually be handled by professionals, not spread across social media with hard conclusions attached because it is what you want to believe even though you have no ability to verify.

[Vet 0369]

2 hours ago, Probus said:

Don’t ammo dumps go up looking like a fireworks stand? A lot of explosions after the first explosion  

It all depends on the munitions in the dump. Contrary to popular belief, even cartridges don’t usually fly off when they ignite.

[DesertFox]

Just now, akd said:

It should actually be handled by professionals, not spread across social media with hard conclusions attached because it is what you want to believe even though you have no ability to verify.

As I said, it is out there for everyone to see. I however will not post that stuff here anymore, to respect the sensitivity of the topic. 

[ASL Veteran]

33 minutes ago, GAZ NZ said:

I watched a Ukraine soldier or civilian. ( unclear who) kill an unarmed Russian soldier lying behind a truck

I found it quite disturbing as the unarmed Russian had been on the back of the truck he jumped off under fire cowering by the truck as the Ukrainian advance shooting at him from the side

Was filmed from a building above looking down

Very clear

 

I have seen the video that you are referencing.  It was posted in this thread, but this thread is moving so fast that it's hard to keep up.  The Russian soldier jumped out of the truck after the truck stopped and appeared to be wounded.  He still had his weapon with him (his assault rifle was clearly laying across his chest), and he was shot and killed while lying on his back as in 'taking cover'.  No doubt the driver and anyone riding shotgun were killed through the windshield.  He was not killed execution style as you seem to believe (for some reason) unless you think any soldier that is killed during wartime is a war crime.  He was shot and killed while taking cover behind the truck.  Afterwards someone walked towards where he was after the firing died down, but I don't recall anyone shooting him again at close range.  He was clearly already dead by the time any other individual entered the video.  They simply inspected the truck for loot - at least that's what I saw.

Edited February 28, 2022 by ASL Veteran

[GAZ NZ]

 

7 minutes ago, keas66 said:

I am unclear what the purpose of your post is ? Are you trying somehow to suggest that The Ukrainians are  carrying out  war crimes ? To what end ? To justify actions by the Russians ?

I'm just saying what I saw 

Maybe that guy killed a civilian for no reason so someone shot him 

Don't know 

I'm just saying I saw it and twitter doesn't care

The driver of the vehicle crushing the car was he pissed on vodka. See to many of his mates killed? 

So he ran over someone losing it

All I'm saying is there's some crazy stuff going on and social media content seems to have no limits at the moment 

 

[BeondTheGrave]

Quote

AP:

Since Thursday, Russians have been flocking to banks and ATMs to withdraw cash, creating long lines and reporting on social media about ATM machines running out of bills.

According to Russia’s Central Bank, on Thursday alone Russians withdrew 111 billion rubles (about $1.3 billion) in cash.

Edited February 28, 2022 by BeondTheGrave

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, ASL Veteran said:

I have seen the video that you are referencing.  It was posted in this thread, but this thread is moving so fast that it's hard to keep up.  The Russian soldier jumped out of the truck after the truck stopped and appeared to be wounded.  He still had his weapon with him (his assault rifle was clearly laying across his chest), and he was shot and killed while lying on his back as in 'taking cover'.  No doubt the driver and anyone riding shotgun were killed through the windshield.  He was not killed execution style as you seem to believe (for some reason) unless you think any soldier that is killed during wartime is a war crime.  He was shot and killed while taking cover behind the truck.  Afterwards someone walked towards where he was after the firing died down, but I don't recall anyone shooting him again at close range.  He was clearly already dead by the time any other individual entered the video.  They simply inspected the truck for loot - at least that's what I saw.

Not everyone manages a perfectly timed surrender, even if they wanted to. Maybe the Russians should go home. Go home SOON.

[GAZ NZ]

4 minutes ago, ASL Veteran said:

I have seen the video that you are referencing.  It was posted in this thread, but this thread is moving so fast that it's hard to keep up.  The Russian soldier jumped out of the truck after the truck stopped and appeared to be wounded.  He still had his weapon with him (his assault rifle was clearly laying across his chest), and he was shot and killed while lying on his back as in 'taking cover'.  No doubt the driver and anyone riding shotgun were killed through the windshield.  He was not killed execution style as you seem to believe (for some reason) unless you think any soldier that is killed during wartime is a war crime.  He was shot and killed while taking cover behind the truck.  Afterwards someone walked towards where he was after the firing died down, but I don't recall anyone shooting him again at close range.  He was clearly already dead by the time any other individual entered the video.  They simply inspected the truck for loot - at least that's what I saw.

I never saw a weapon on him or that he did anything aggressive but if you saw that okay 

The Ukrainian walked around the truck the Russian was clearly unable to fight  no surrender just bam

He stood there looked at the guy for 5 seconds then shot 

I was expecting him to be taken as a prisoner

[akd]

31 minutes ago, GAZ NZ said:

I never saw a weapon on him or that he did anything aggressive but if you saw that okay 

The Ukrainian walked around the truck the Russian was clearly unable to fight  no surrender just bam

He stood there looked at the guy for 5 seconds then shot 

I was expecting him to be taken as a prisoner

That’s reading a lot into a situation that you were not present at and definitely haven’t talked to directly anyone who was.  Maybe lay off the social media confirmation bias firestorms.  There is a war on.

Edited February 28, 2022 by akd

[panzermartin]

We have seen the estimates for Russian losses, but I have seen none of UKR side. I was watching CNN and I think an Ukrainian official denied to reveal details but when the journalist insisted he said they were "enormous". Because of the massive firepower and kalibr missiles he stated. Probably he was reffering mostly to static installations, bases, airports etc I guess. But I wonder if they are still armored formations of Ukrainian army fighting, or is it mostly asymmetrical, small units, with artillery support and UAVs. Those are the only things I see on videos. 

[DesertFox]

22 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

DesertFox and Haiduk,

Indeed. And with a firing range of 37.5 kms with standard projectiles and 55 kms with RAP (per Wiki), given typical convoy speeds and intervehicular separation in artillery- and airstrike-scared road march, even absent breakdowns, other UKR force attacks on the column, those Pions should be blazing away for quite some time to come, bringing the pain only a 203 can! Do the UA Pions have anything other than HE, such as FASCAM? Imagine the havoc those would cause when dropped right into the march serials. Speaking of Pions, do the Czechs (?) still have any, and if so, did they send any rounds for them in that ammo train?

Regards,

John Kettler

I would go for TB2 UCAVs. Those already did a fine job for the ukrainians on russian convoys.

[BornGinger]

1 hour ago, Bulletpoint said:

A country that has so much pride about its WW2 achievements.. and with several recent modern wars and conflicts behind it... surely any Russian military leader must have studied history and tactics.

It's correct that the Soviet-Russian soldiers managed to reach Berlin and other parts of Germany. But I watched a documentary about the war in which Soviet veterans, now old geezers, talked about how they despised the Soviet-Russian generals (and Soviet-Ukrainian generals too) for how they used the common soldier as their chess pieces so they could send a successful report to the Stavka.

In the Chechnya war in the '90s the Russian generals used the same tactics when they tried to storm Groznyi, the capital of Chechnya, with the result of many dead and wounded Russian soldiers. If I remember correctly they assaulted Groznyi twice or three times with great losses.

I don't know much about the Soviet tactics in the Afghan war, but it was probably the same kind of assaults used in that war. When I lived in Estonia in the late '90s early 21 century I talked to some veterans from that war and they were almost always talking badly about their officers.

So, yes, they got results but I don't think they have a good reason to be really proud about the tactics used.

So it doesn't surprise me if they use the same Soviet-type tactics today.

[Vet 0369]

2 hours ago, womble said:

Nope, they don't. You're right. That's because, from a NATO point of view, it's paranoid fantasy.

As far as NATO is concerned, it's a defensive alliance. It was set up to defend against an apparently belligerent Communist state (run by a paranoid psycho). Now that the USSR is gone, and its successor state, Russia isn't espousing a form of government which has at the base of its ideology, the downfall of Western Capitalism, there's even less  chance that NATO would feel that offensive action into Russia was necessary.

But some of the other USSR successor states saw Russia's imperialist "reconquest" agendas and felt they needed the protection of the NATO umbrella, so they joined up with their newly-accessible trading partners in the mutual defense pact. And it looks like they may well have been wise to do so, since they've been spared Ukraine's fate.

NATO is only an existential threat to Russia if Russia seeks to overturn the international order and attack NATO members.

But someone in Russia is feeding the beast that thinks everyone else is out to bring the Russian people and nation down. Driving the irrational fear that NATO has even the vaguest desire to get rid of Russia just because it's Russia. When the USSR disbanded, the West was happy for Russians (and other nationalities previously ruled by the Politburo) because it was the Soviet Union that was the enemy of both the West, and its own people, and now they were free.

Can you explain why "Russia" thinks NATO is an existential threat? I can grok why Putin and his nasty little cabal might, since they have all manner of unsavoury (to the international community) ambitions. But beyond "Being taken in by Putin's paranoia", I honestly don't understand why Russia in general would feel they have anything to fear from NATO.

Russia, as a state since it’s inception 1,000 years ago or more has always been xenophobic (fear of outsiders)because of all the invasions it’s suffered from outsiders, right up to the the joint British/Us invasion at Arckangel in 1919, and of course Operation Barbarossa.Tzar Peter the Great  was the first Russian monarch to literally drag the nobles, kicking and screaming, into the 18th century. The xenophobia has existed in Russia for so long, I’m actually starting to think it’s become part of the Russian collective DNA.

[Commanderski]

That video of the tank driving over the car is only one view. There was another angle of the same incident and it was on the same street as the above mentioned truck incident. 

That truck was ambushed and that tank also came under fire and swerved into the car. It was more than likely unintentional.  Both videos were also reviewed and commented on several hundred posts ago.

[Vic4]

11 hours ago, womble said:

Though maybe this whole Ukraine adventure is just a massive gambit to tell the rest of the world "I don't bluff", preparatory to making bigger demands backed up by megaton-range warheads. That'd be scary.

Exactly this... What is the response of NATO et al to nuclear ultimatums?

Edited February 28, 2022 by Vic4

[GAZ NZ]

With 16 ships now cut off in the Mediterranean I'm curious there response to Turkey 

 

From the guardian UK 

Turkey’s foreign ministry has signalled that it intends to block Russian warships from passing through the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits that lead to the Black Sea, a shift in Turkey’s formerly neutral position where officials underlined alliances with both Russia and Ukraine.

“We came to the conclusion that the situation in Ukraine has turned into a war,” said Turkish foreign minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu. “We will apply the Montreux provisions transparently.”

Turkey controls both straits under the Montreux convention, granting it the power to block the passage of Russian and Ukrainian warships, providing they are not returning to their permanent bases in the Black Sea.

The convention means the straits can be blocked if a conflict meets the definition of a war.

The blocking will likely affect a number of Russian vessels currently in the Mediterranean Sea, including submarines and frigates, some of which belong to Black Sea fleets. A block means that Russian warships will not be able to transit the straits to either provide reinforcements to existing forces or to leave and return in order to assist forces in their invasion of Ukraine.

Turkish maritime analyst Yörük Isik pointed to satellite imagery showing at least 16 vessels in the Mediterranean. “What we see are 16 ships, some of them are Black Sea fleet ships. They might have some additional assets including replenishment tankers or small patrol crafts near Tartus but these are the most meaningful assets,” he said.

Çavuşoğlu’s remarks about the closure of the straits also signalled a shift in Turkish policy that until now has carefully tried to balance its Nato commitments and alliance with Ukraine in tandem with its energy and security dependency on Russia.

Turkey’s position has shifted rapidly over the weekend, including remarks earlier today from president Erdogan’s chief advisor Ibrahim Kalin, who said “we will continue our efforts to help the people of Ukraine and end bloodshed in this unjust and unlawful war.” Until now, Turkish officials had chosen their words carefully, primarily using terms such as “military operation.”

Turkey’s move to close the straits is a signal that its current foreign policy is prioritising Europe and its Nato commitments over its long-term ties to Russia.

“Turkey has a dependency on Russia, not only on energy like some European countries, but also their security situation. There must be fears within the authority that Russia could green-light an attack by the [Syrian] regime on Idlib,” said Sinan Ülgen, of the Turkish thinktank the Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies. He was referring to the province in northern Syria controlled by opposition forces including jihadists, with a Turkish presence to deter Russian and Syrian attacks.

Edited February 28, 2022 by GAZ NZ

[panzermartin]

I agree about the xenophobic part. Russia has suffered far more from the West than vice versa. But we fail to grasp that because we are too used in living in a Anglo-Saxon universe. I mean last time, it was almost yesterday, when they lost 27 million people to the Nazis and had their country in ruins. Part of the reason they attempted this shocking invasion, was plain fear.