How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[chuckdyke]

It is easier to push start a car pushing downhill. Useful for their trucks. In combat it is easier to lob a hand grenade down a hill than up a hill. Cons if the barrel of your firearm is worn out a bullet may slide down the barrel. I don't know any more tongue in the cheek comments. 

[SteelRain]

Delivery of the first 15 Gepards including 59000 rounds could start in July said german MoD Christine Lambrecht. The crews will be trained by the industry  with help of former Gepard crew members.

The Czech Republic will get 14 older Leopard 2, 1 Leopard 2 based ARV and a 30 day supply of 120mm rounds as compensation for 20 T72 that will be sent to Ukraine. The Bundeswehr will train the Czech crews.

source :
https://augengeradeaus.net/2022/05/lambrecht-avisiert-der-ukraine-gepard-lieferung-ab-juli/

Edited May 21, 2022 by SteelRain

[kraze]

8 hours ago, dan/california said:

I think the "just win the bleeping war faction" in the Whitehouse has won, if this is true.

Sadly that's not the wording. They write "if US would ever wish to provide himars and patriot - they now can". Not that they will

[Fernando]

Having the height advantage is ALWAYS good. All People with height advantage can observe any attacking enemy better, attacking uphill is  tiring for the infantry, a defended counterslope can be murderous for the attacker etc.  Saying height advantage is not important reminds me of Aesop's fable "The Fox and the Grapes".

(and, last but not least, don't forget it allows to cut to pieces any Sith attacking you)

Edited May 21, 2022 by Fernando

[ASL Veteran]

41 minutes ago, Fernando said:

Having the height advantage is ALWAYS good. All People with height advantage can observe any attacking enemy better, attacking uphill is  tiring for the infantry, a defended counterslope can be murderous for the attacker etc.  Saying height advantage is not important reminds me of Aesop's fable "The Fox and the Grapes".

(and, last but not least, don't forget it allows to cut to pieces any Sith attacking you)

 

[Huba]

The speed with which tactical attack drones are progressing is mind boggling. Could mayve be compared to aircraft at the start of WW1. This badboy could probably drop a 50kg barrel bomb as well, seems like a logical next step. Or be equipped with DPICM dispenser. 

 

[Huba]

I really wonder who is going to attack whom in Moldova/ Transnistria:

Also, nother Stugna-P attaxk, this time against MT-LB with infantry riding on top:

 

Edited May 21, 2022 by Huba

[Hapless]

Attack drones are nice and all, but how much are drones going to change forward logistics?

If we're looking at a very wide, porous battle zone populated by ATGM, MANPAD, drone enabled recce-arty complex wielding low signature light infantry, is it going to be easier to resupply them with drone deliveries of ammo cans, missiles, rations and jerry cans of fuel and water than it is to push vehicles in there?

[rocketman]

Re Russia scraping the bottom of the barrel; the 40 year old cap on contract soldiers has been removed and even more units are pulled from Syria. Last leg?

[c3k]

Popasna and high ground

 

Popasna

The Russian victory at Popasna potentially unhinges Ukraine defenses east of that point. It is a serious incursion and needs to be countered. Attacking the shoulders of the penetration is the tried and true solution, but involves having more forces and capability than the Ukraine can field in that area at this time. Short of cutting off the penetration, resistance to the forward elements needs to coalesce such that it is either deflected or stopped.

The larger danger is that this penetration, aside from endangering Ukraine forces to the east (either by pocketing them or just choking off supplies), it gets past the field fortifications and defenses built up since 2014.

In short, it sets the stage for a left hook, getting behind the Ukrainian defenses to the southwest of Popasna.

That's the danger.

Ukraine can definitely stabilize the area...by pushing in (reliable) troops and more support.

 

And that brings us to high ground.

This conflict in the Luhansk/Donetsk area seems to be WWI-esque with less troop density. There are trenchlines, artillery support, raids, observation flights, and movement measured in much smaller distances than in conflicts after that period.

All the ravines that cut through the area (drainage basins) definitely cause a funneling effect. Look at how the German offense (Kursk) developed in this area at the tactical level: each village is important because they are on the high ground and on roads. The road network and the terrain are such that these pieces of high ground are worth defending.

That brings us back around to the trenches and observation. Sure, drones are available, but a trench in a low ground is just a pre-dug grave. (See German defense lines in WWI vs. what the British did.) If you're going to get pummeled by directed artillery, high ground or low ground is about the same...but if the enemy is going to use infantry to pry you out...high ground wins.

 

Finally, that brings up the "burn rate". The big pushes are what are getting attention, but what is the daily level of attrition in the "quiet" sectors? How many artillery shells are being used per day and to what effect? What about raids, recce, etc? Ukraine may have mobilized more and sooner, but we don't know how many are dying across the front.

This is what may have led to that Territorial Defense unit collapsing. Just the daily grind, followed up by a determined enemy advance.

Yes, Russia has lost more, and in a more spectacular manner, but what is going on in the rest of the engagement zone? 

[akd]

Final (4th) part of Russian volunteer Victor Shayga’s account of fighting in the Izium area:

https://justpaste.it/2ix7w

[Harmon Rabb]

2 hours ago, kraze said:

Sadly that's not the wording. They write "if US would ever wish to provide himars and patriot - they now can". Not that they will

On February 24th I doubt most people thought we would ever see M777's in action in Ukraine. Here's hoping in the near future we will see some videos of M142's in action in Ukraine.

In the mean time here is another video of the M777.

 

Edited May 21, 2022 by Harmon Rabb

[Kinophile]

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/05/great-translation-movement-china-censorship-firewall/629914/

 

Interesting angle on the range of Chinese attitudes.

 

[Harmon Rabb]

After watching this video I'm convinced we are all wrong. As soon as Putin decides to REALLY declare war on Ukraine it will be over in hours... No seconds.

[Huba]

10 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

After watching this video I'm convinced we are all wrong. As soon as Putin decides to REALLY declare war on Ukraine it will be over in hours... No seconds.

Leaving aside the absurdity of this differentiation, this is how "stab in the back" myths are being born. After defeat in Ukraine, Russia will be fueled by revanchist ideas for a long time (till next war?). What Russians could really use is total defeat followed by occupation and regime change - impossible of course, but it seems that anything less can't introduce the systematic changes that they really badly need.

In the meantime, we can expect another arms package declaration on Monday, as second Ramstein meeting will take place. Zelensky openly states that he expects MLRS deliveries to be decided:

https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/volodimir-zelenskij-ochikuye-pozitivnih-rishen-vid-drugoyi-z-75241

[sburke]

Milley tells West Point cadets technology will transform war (msn.com)

[sburke]

oops.

just another little mishap

Fire Erupts at Russia Aviation Institute Near Moscow as Ukraine War Rages (msn.com)

 

[BornGinger]

18 hours ago, sburke said:

Russia deploys 'Terminator' tank support vehicles into Ukraine (msn.com)

I can hear the slight rustling in the brush as a Ukrainian tractor hunts its prey.

One of the tractors already in hiding. Now the long wait begins for that Terminator to get close enough for the taking.

Edited May 21, 2022 by BornGinger

[Boche]

1 hour ago, Harmon Rabb said:

After watching this video I'm convinced we are all wrong. As soon as Putin decides to REALLY declare war on Ukraine it will be over in hours... No seconds.

"This is not how a war is waged"

Well, she is right about something...lol

[Ts4EVER]

7 minutes ago, Boche said:

"This is not how a war is waged"

Well, she is right about something...lol

 

[akd]

Yesterday:

Today:

 

[danfrodo]

Markos at DailyKos echoing Steve, yet again.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/5/20/2099283/-Ukraine-Update-Seriously-stop-panicking-about-Popasna

LIBERAL SITE, ENTER AT YOUR OWN PERIL.  But he's an artillery veteran who's had excellent coverage of the war.  Today he makes case that even losing the severodonestsk salient is not a big deal.

I see the local map and get kinda uncomfortable, then look at a wider map and realize just how small that area is. 

[Battlefront.com]

For sure having the high ground is a good thing and desirable objective.  Combat is generally more difficult going uphill than down.  No doubts about that here or pretty much anywhere.  However, my commentary was specific to the terrain analysis Tweet about the importance of traditional advantages of high ground for observation.  This is where I think things become trickier.

The terrain around me is similar to what is around Popasna, though vastly more forested.  In my part of the world holding the high ground offers, at best, soda straw views of very select portions of the surrounding area.  For example, there's a road that crests a large hill and you can clearly see the surrounding slopes and even some terrain features 50 miles away.  Nice view, but you can't see the large town that's only 2 miles away because of terrain undulations and tree cover.  Not only that, but the defender can view onto the other side of the hill to check out what's there while the attacker is limited to only what its position can view through direct LOS.

If this were WW1 or WW2 that height + map + skilled observer would certainly have an advantage over someone defending the town.  Now?  Meh... I'd put my money on the defender + drone in the town vs. the attacker with height + map + skilled observer.  A drone will learn vastly more than the observer on the hill. 

The difference between my area and Popasna is tree cover.  It's pretty clear that much of the terrain surrounding Popasna is fields.  This is a distinct advantage for the force on the high ground it the positions are static.  But mobile warfare?  I'm not so sure.  As the old saying goes... LOS works both ways.  If the attacker needs to move over a hill and down into the valley then it is just as likely that the defender will see the attack coming as than the attacker sees the defender.  Especially because the force in motion is easier to spot.

I think drones, at the very least, counteract one of the longest held advantages of holding high ground -> observational superiority.  The other advantages and disadvantages likely remain.

Steve

[Huba]

10 minutes ago, Ts4EVER said:

 

Russians are advancing with a pace of asthmatic ant with very heavy shopping(quoting from memory). Cheers for the reference!

[akd]

Says it is older footage of DNR mortar strikes on a Ukrainian tank on the outskirts of Mariupol, but actually looks like a very close range fight between two groups: