How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, c3k said:

On the one hand, he repudiates EVERYTHING he's ever been told by his government or their propaganda organs. And then, he discusses his hatred of Ukraine because of what he's been told.

Yeah, that struck me many times while reading his account.  Total disconnect.  It is, unfortunately, a very common Human cognitive reasoning problem.  For example, think of all the conspiracy "tin foil hat" types out there...

"Everything you know about the shape of the Earth is a lie!  It is flat, not round.  Anybody that tells you otherwise has an agenda and they are brainwashing you.  How do I know this?  Because some guys on the Internet exposed the whole conspiracy!  Don't believe anything else, because all those things are biased and part of the great conspiracy.  The truth tellers out there can be trusted because they aren't in it for the money.  Although they do ask for money to help spread the truth, so I sent them $100 without any way of verifying how it is used.  Nothing fishy about that at all!"

The other common way this is expressed is in politics.  "All politicians lie!  You can't trust them.  Not a single one of them!  What about the person running for office that I've been following around like a love sick teenager?  Why don't I think he/she lies?  Well, that's simple... because that person isn't a politician!  He/she's a real person of the people, not a corrupt politician!  Now pardon me while I get out my checkbook and send a bunch of my money to a political fund that has fine print that says they can spend the money on anything they want to, even personal expenses.  It's my duty to send money to someone directly into their pocket so they can get rid of corruption and restore integrity to our political system!"

This stuff has been going on since our species was still hunter gatherers.  Unfortunately, it seems the brain defects that allow this sort of stuff to happen are really slow to evolve to something better.

Steve

[akd]

Said to be the work of 79th Air-Assault Brigade artillery. If so, very lucky hit on a retreating tank:

 

[chrisl]

9 minutes ago, akd said:

Said to be the work of 79th Air-Assault Brigade artillery. If so, very lucky hit on a retreating tank:

 

Did all three crew actually make it out alive?  It looks like the commander was upright and half out, watching the road, when they got hit and was the first one out, maybe knocked onto the deck with the hit and then off.  It rolled backwards with flames coming out his hatch, then after it stopped, the gunner got out and shortly after we see both hatches open with flames.  Then at 0:52 in the second video we see three guys running down the road - so maybe the driver made it, too?  Later we see 4 guys standing up, and what looks like a 5th on the ground, so it's possible that #3 earlier was from a different vehicle.  

[Battlefront.com]

That crew member (Commander?) was obviously quite lucky!

Overall the artillery didn't seem all that accurate.  Though big kudos to Ukraine for once again showing how responsive its artillery is.  Those two Tigrs and the T-72 couldn't have been there for very long before they were engaged.

I think the tank was hit by an AT weapon of some sort.  When the tank got out into the road it fired at something as well as putting out smoke.  I don't think it would do that if artillery was the only threat.

Interesting to see a couple of wrecks from some earlier attempt to move around in the area.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, chrisl said:

Did all three crew actually make it out alive?  It looks like the commander was upright and half out, watching the road, when they got hit and was the first one out, maybe knocked onto the deck with the hit and then off.  It rolled backwards with flames coming out his hatch, then after it stopped, the gunner got out and shortly after we see both hatches open with flames.  Then at 0:52 in the second video we see three guys running down the road - so maybe the driver made it, too?  Later we see 4 guys standing up, and what looks like a 5th on the ground, so it's possible that #3 earlier was from a different vehicle.  

The gunner got blown out of the turret (I forgot that the turret is orientated backwards!), the driver hopped out just before it hit the telephone pole.  You can see him exiting on the left side.  The hit seems to have been at the right front of the turret, which because it was backwards meant the commander's position was hit.

The rest of the guys that we see later on appear to be in black tank crew coveralls, though really hard to tell.  No indication where they might have come from.

And can I just say, again, how crazy it is to still see incidents of single vehicles driving around in an obvious frontline situation?  Nuts.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Taranis said:

Stupid hint for the site UAWarData, it's possible by keeping right-click on the mouse to move the view from upside to 45°
https://uawardata.com/
I hadn't noticed it before. It might be useless for you but who knows.

 

Ooo!  I did not notice that!  It not only rotates but tilts!  Very useful indeed.  Thanks.

Steve

[Vanir Ausf B]

 

[chrisl]

26 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The gunner got blown out of the turret (I forgot that the turret is orientated backwards!), the driver hopped out just before it hit the telephone pole.  You can see him exiting on the left side.  The hit seems to have been at the right front of the turret, which because it was backwards meant the commander's position was hit.

The rest of the guys that we see later on appear to be in black tank crew coveralls, though really hard to tell.  No indication where they might have come from.

And can I just say, again, how crazy it is to still see incidents of single vehicles driving around in an obvious frontline situation?  Nuts.

Steve

It didn't start out as a single vehicle...

Near the start of the first video there are a couple of light trucks (TIGRs or LMVs?) and two guys are messing around on the hood of one and then go patrolling down the road, (probably looking for the AT team that is going to get the tank later...).  But stlll, not a lot of guys on the ground to protect the tank in a low visibility, short range ambush environment.

[Battlefront.com]

Looking at the Popasna breakthrough...

Russia's main objective is to cut T13-02, which they seem to be attempting to do by driving northwestward from Popasna towards a section of road between Yakolivka and Bilohorivka.  The road infrastructure isn't very good for this drive, however it is the most direct path and avoids having to fight in the built up areas of Bakhmut and Berkhivka.  Since cutting the road anywhere along that stretch is good enough, their plan makes sense.

Now to do math...

To get to the road and have about as much width as they have now, Russia will have to man about 40km of frontage between Popasna and T13-02.

Looking at Schlottman's unit identifications in the Popasna area, he has them down for about 4x BTG equivalents doing the fighting now with the 150th MRD having another 3 in reserve.  Assuming these are decently staffed, that's about 2000 breaking through with 1500 in reserve.

Assuming that all 3500 a) exist, b) are committed to exploitation, and c) nothing is held as a mobile reserve, that means about 87 men per KM of frontage.  That's not a lot, especially since a decent chunk of the 3500 are logistics, HQ, and other non-combat forces.  This means there could be little more than a platoon securing each KM of frontage.  Anybody here think that's enough to defend against a Ukrainian counter attack?

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

15 minutes ago, chrisl said:

It didn't start out as a single vehicle...

Near the start of the first video there are a couple of light trucks (TIGRs or LMVs?) and two guys are messing around on the hood of one and then go patrolling down the road, (probably looking for the AT team that is going to get the tank later...).  But stlll, not a lot of guys on the ground to protect the tank in a low visibility, short range ambush environment.

Yes, but those Tigrs aren't relevant.  One went in the opposite direction than the tank, the other appears to have been abandoned.  Obviously we don't know the timeframe (lots of jump cuts), but it's clear that the tank is a significant distance from where it started in the initial video.

Steve

[sross112]

20 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Looking at Schlottman's unit identifications in the Popasna area, he has them down for about 4x BTG equivalents doing the fighting now with the 150th MRD having another 3 in reserve.  Assuming these are decently staffed, that's about 2000 breaking through with 1500 in reserve.

I believe the 150th MRD was the main force attacking Mariupol from the east. They were able to push up to but not into the Azovstal complex. I guess it is possible that they had a couple weeks out of the line and absorbed some reinforcements but I doubt their frontline units are in very good shape. Good chance that the supporting units are still somewhat intact and can bring a lot of influence into that area though. 

[dan/california]

22 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yes, but those Tigrs aren't relevant.  One went in the opposite direction than the tank, the other appears to have been abandoned.  Obviously we don't know the timeframe (lots of jump cuts), but it's clear that the tank is a significant distance from where it started in the initial video.

Steve

The artillery did its job. The Russian attempt to do something coherent was completely disrupted, and the tank proceed to blunder into an ATGM team. This is excellent combined arms work. I wonder how badly hurt the tankers get on average when they are riding three quarters out of the hatches like that and the tank brews up? They are also vastly more vulnerable to shell fragments and bullets that way of course.

[dan/california]

The Russians seem to have lost their usual battlegroup per day.

[Kinophile]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/05/22/russia-ukraine-war-news-live-updates/#link-ZKACMPAJY5HQDAIRBHCLAZG3TA

100 UKR KIA/day. Consistent with previous numbers and overall trend.

Consider that RUS is losing at least 200/day and the two forces are supposedly at parity in numbers (although not evenly squared off across the front).

Also consider that by the end of June UKR will definitively outnumber Russia's in-theater forces in biped count, possibly equal MBTs and approaching better comparison/superiority in fires quality (but not quantity equivalence) in Artillery. Air will be a question but I believe the more modern manpads etc are starting to creating tactical bubbles for UKR offensives to operate within.

Lots of CAD$10 words there, just found my daughter's thesaurus >:) 

 

Edited May 22, 2022 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

Also, ref getting foreign flagged ships into Odessa for grain exports.

Russia hasn't declared actual war, so any boarding of  foreign ships could conceivably be declared "piracy". 

Seriously...

And sinkings/attacks could be maritime terrorism...

But the question is who is going to send their ships into that zone, without insurance and heavy NATO/Turkish naval protection. But hey, nothing's impossible...

Edited May 22, 2022 by Kinophile

[Battlefront.com]

15 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Also, ref getting foreign flagged ships into Odessa for grain exports.

Russia hasn't declared actual war, so any boarding of  foreign ships could conceivably be declared "piracy". 

Seriously...

And sinkings/attacks could be maritime terrorism...

But the question is who is going to send their ships into that zone, without insurance and heavy NATO/Turkish naval protection. But hey, nothing's impossible...

This is all true and I wish the UN would make some sort of definitive statement about this, but man-oh-man has the UN been AWOL on this war.  I doubt Russia would attack a non-belligerent ship flying under a UN flag on a grain run to Odessa.  I even doubt they'd attack an Egyptian, Indian, or Pakistani flagged ship doing the same.

Steve

[Raptor341]

23 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Also, ref getting foreign flagged ships into Odessa for grain exports.

Russia hasn't declared actual war, so any boarding of  foreign ships could conceivably be declared "piracy". 

Seriously...

And sinkings/attacks could be maritime terrorism...

But the question is who is going to send their ships into that zone, without insurance and heavy NATO/Turkish naval protection. But hey, nothing's impossible...

Indeed - nothing is impossible, just needs a plan and willpower. Going to have to do something to open up the seaway. Destroying the BSF would be a good place to start (opinion), but regardless, an international mission will likely be required to ensure the safety of any maritime traffic in the western Black Sea. 
 

From a naval perspective, retaking Crimea or nullifying it is key for long term Ukrainian sea LOC control. 

Edited May 22, 2022 by Raptor341

[Raptor341]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is all true and I wish the UN would make some sort of definitive statement about this, but man-oh-man has the UN been AWOL on this war.  I doubt Russia would attack a non-belligerent ship flying under a UN flag on a grain run to Odessa.  I even doubt they'd attack an Egyptian, Indian, or Pakistani flagged ship doing the same.

Steve

Beat me to the punch Steve - hadn’t considered Indian and other third party navies but that could be a good option. And yes, the UN was been surprisingly AWOL throughout this. In this case, UN flagged vessels might be an excellent idea, even if they require escort by NATO vessels under UN flag. I doubt Russia would challenge that

[akd]

Quote

As they approached a village, a man with a whip jumped out and started whipping the convoy and screaming: “You all are f**ked!” the officer recalled.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/22/europe/ukraine-russian-officer-resigns/index.html

Article is mostly an interview with one “refusenik” junior officer from an unknown SMD unit, but also includes this unverified claim about the 150th MRD:

Quote

The Ukrainian Intelligence Directorate reported that in several Russian units, specifically the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Army of the Southern Military District, as many as 60% to 70% of soldiers were refusing to serve.

 

[sross112]

10 minutes ago, Raptor341 said:

Indeed - nothing is impossible, just needs a plan and willpower. Going to have to do something to open up the seaway. Destroying the BSF would be a good place to start (opinion), but regardless, an international mission will likely be required to ensure the safety of any maritime traffic in the western Black Sea. 
 

From a naval perspective, retaking Crimea or nullifying it is key for long term Ukrainian sea LOC control. 

Hypothetical question:

The straits are closed by Turkey to all warships. So if Ukraine took the Crimea what would happen to the Black Sea Fleet? Would it be interned for the duration of the Special Military Operation in Turkey?

[Huba]

Just now, sross112 said:

Hypothetical question:

The straits are closed by Turkey to all warships. So if Ukraine took the Crimea what would happen to the Black Sea Fleet? Would it be interned for the duration of the Special Military Operation in Turkey?

Assuming more or less whole Crimea is taken, the only other Russian base is Novorosyisk, which would be well in range of any anti-ship missiles Ukraine would field. I think they would retreat to Rostov on Don, or even higher up the Don river if Rostov wasn't safe enough.

[Raptor341]

Likely they would move to other Russian ports along the Black Sea - now that the Slava class CG is gone their remaining vessels are under 500 feet long, but I am not an expert on the other ports in the area, likely Novorosyisk

Edited May 22, 2022 by Raptor341

[Battlefront.com]

Longer video of one posted a couple of pages back.  Two T-72s trying to hide in a residential area somewhere outside of Kharkiv (says "Zirkuni" but I think that is a neighborhood name, not a town name):

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/uvaor9/zirkuni_kharkiv_region_russians_try_to_hide_in/

 

[fireship4]

3 hours ago, chrisl said:

None of the images are displaying for me - I tried two different browsers.

Thanks for letting me know - my attempt at using links to dropbox image previews seems to have only shown up for me (a security feature I guess), direct links having unsuccessful.  I have uploaded them elsewhere and beg your collective indulgence (you'll bloody like it and say so) as I repost both parts below.  Mods feel free to delete my previous two posts (when has that ever happened).

 

"Looks like (before the thread hurtles past it) we are touching upon a fundamental of warfare: hills!  How should they be considered in modern war?  An amateur's thoughts:

• They are hard to get up.
• You can see the surrounding land.
• You can be seen from the surrounding land.

That's it.  That's all I can think of.  These broadly mean:

• Being hard to get up makes them harder to take with infantry and vehicles, and easier to defend.  They are harder to supply and harder to place heavy weapons upon.
• Once under your control, you can use them (as in the past) to control the surrounding area, through spotting and direct fire.
• Every bastard in the area around you can see the hill.  And since the hill is always smaller than it's surroundings, all other things being equal, this means more people will be able to see and hit the hill than are able to see and hit from it.

So we have some nuance.  You can say a drone with FLIR negates the benefits of a hill, but how many pairs of eyes are on the hill and how many are staring at the monitor?  Who or what are you going to put on the hill?  Who or what is in the surrounding area?  Anyway, having my mind on the subject led me to starting up Google Earth.  It's amazing what we can do at home with modern tools:"

Quote

Topographical map from John Helin's Twitter thread as an overlay in Google Earth.  [Edit: May not show up if you use experimental atmospheric settings or do not have atmosphere enabled].

 

The 'Ukraine Control Map' and'Russio-Ukranian War' maps on Google MyMaps are easily downloaded as .kml files.

 

The view of 'Hill 311' (marked with a yellow pin) looking NW from the N edge of Popasna.  [Edit: Image date was the closest I could get to the right time of year while considering other factors].

 

The same view with a topographical map found via the online-available: 'map-overlays-for-google-earth-combined.kml'.

 

"More Google Earth extravagance further to my previous post:"

Quote

Soviet military 1:100,000 maps 'M-37-125' and 'M-37-113' overlaid on the area.

 

Cropped sections of a Soviet military 1:50,000 map overlaid on the area.

 

'Base Maps of Ukraine - Elevation' overlaid on the area.

 

Looking from the north edge of Popasna facing 'Hill 311' (marked approximately with a yellow pin).

 

From above.

 

A larger overlay.

"Alas the flight ends there.  I had in fact imported the whole BMU-E into Google Earth, about 180 images, and was positioning for a shot when the whole thing crashed, losing almost all the work I had done over the previous hours.  Bastard. 

I will do it again if I feel it serves enough purpose (I did wonder if it was worth it as I realised how long it was taking), and can perhaps provide for requests should the posts not prove instructional, time allowing."

Edited May 22, 2022 by fireship4

[Battlefront.com]

28 minutes ago, akd said:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/22/europe/ukraine-russian-officer-resigns/index.html

This fits a pattern of things we've heard so far.  Unit goes into Ukraine, gets the snot beaten out of it, gets withdrawn, soldiers refuse to return to combat.  It seems there is a mix of reasons, but they all boil down to a lack of confidence in their mission generally (purpose, leadership, care for wounded, etc.).

28 minutes ago, akd said:

Article is mostly an interview with one “refusenik” junior officer from an unknown SMD unit, but also includes this unverified claim about the 150th MRD:

We know the 150th was one of the primary units fighting in Mariupol.  They suffered large losses there and haven't had much time to recover since being withdraw a few weeks ago.  The 3x BTGs that Schlottman attributes to the 150th are probably some of the "exists only on paper" type of BTG we've heard more about recently.

Steve