How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, womble said:

I also remember when "motorised" meant trucks, not APCs...  But I guess if you've over half a century of hand-me-downs from the units that got actually modernised, you can replace your trucks with APCs to move your gropos around, and keep the trucks for the log train.

"Motorized" is not enough correct translation. Russians name own units like in Soviet times - "motor-rifle" 

[Harmon Rabb]

I was looking forward to seeing some footage of DANA in action.

[akd]

Hmm...deaths of sailors from the BSF's medium reconnaissance ship Ekvator:

 

[Haiduk]

So, some updates, based on analysys of Konstantin Mashovets, our military expert of "Information resistance" group. I would recommend it, but he writes in Russian in ironical and mockery way, so his texts will be too hard to understand for western reader. But his thoughts much deeper, than texts of Cooper and even ISW. 

So, Russians 2-3 days ago launched decisive phase of "plan F" (?) - encircling of UKR troops in agglomeration Rubizhne-Siverodonetsk-Lysychansk. Now their main efforts shifted again. But anout this later.

After Bilohorivka disaster, Russian troops took a pause on this direction, but tried to attack to Siveriodonetsk from NE and SE. In previous days UKR forces withdrew from southern part of Rubizhne and after about two days resistsnce in Voyavodivka - the village between Rubizne and Siverodonetsk, left and this village too, crossed the Borova river. Yoy could see the video of bridges demolish - this is that. Russians attack on the city were repelled by our artillery, so one day after their attack there was relatively quiet. Despite our troops left Voyevodivka, Russians to this time don't control it, because the village under fire control of UKR artillery. Now Russians shelled Siverodonetsk with artilelry and thinking about crossing the Borova river in the city vicinity.  

Most bad situation around Popasna. Initially Russian forces attacked north on Komyshuvakha, aiming on Vrubivka - Mylokaivka with coming to Bakhmut-Lysychansk road, but UKR forces repelled their atatcks so severly, that Russian coomand was forced to mix VDV troops, which suffered losses with PMC fighters and shift own efforts again. Russians and LPR still atatck in Komyshuvakha area, but main strike VDV+PMC+LPR forces conducted on Popasna - Soledar axis and, alas, their advance was successfull. This is not confirmed officially, but from reports of locals, enemy captured Novozvanivka, Pylypchate, Druzhba, Trypillia and even partially entered to Volodymyrivka village in 6-7 km from Soledar. Developing this sucess, Russian command threw in the battle here reserves - 3 new BTGs, at least two of them Russian VDV. Other analyst claims Russian already have on this direction 18 BTG - involved units of 5th CAA, Naval Infantry, VDV, PMC, LPR regulars/conscripts. Commander of "Popasna KampfGrupp" - lt.general Adveev, deputy of Southern military district comamnder.  Today, likely after new reserves arriving, Russians opened third axis of own attack from Popasna - SW. Reportedly they siezed Troitske (only one report, so RUMINT level) - large village, and the gate to Svitlodarsk bulge, which all this time was relatively calm place.  

Simultainously LPR forces, advancing from Novotoshkivske, seized Orikhove and Toshkivka villages and counduct fighting in Zolote and Hirs'ke areas, threating to come on southern outskirts of Lystchansk.

Obviously in interests of Popasna group, Russians changed own actions around Avdiivka. They rejected from senseless direct assaults from Yasynuvata to "promka", which cost huge number of DPR troops and shifted own efforts north along H-20 road toward Kostiantynivka town in 20 km SW form Bakhmut, which lays on the road Dnipro - Pavlohrad - Pokrovske - Bakhmut.

Thus, Russians now shifted own main actions on southern part of own encirclement. But on other axis they continue to atatck or regroup forces. Their "Izium group" now trying to advanse on direction Dovhen'ke - Krasnopillia and Dovhen'ke - Bohorodychne, assisting the "Lyman group" in own mission to cut UKR defense on several parts and to throw them to the river, maintaining wide accsess to Siverskyi Donets - reportedly they already gathered about 40 PMP pontoons sections to repeat crossing (part of this dtuff appointed for Borova crossing). Bakhmut now under MLRS and artillery fire. Russian aviation almost with unimpunity strike from the sky. Our soldiers say it's very hard to hit with MANPAD fast maneuvering target , flying on extreme low altitude. Also features of terrain not always allow to detect their attacks in time. 

But on other hand UKR troops are doing somethig near Izium - today appaerad a video with captured soldiers of 15th GMR of 2nd GMD from this area, so Russians moved some troops from Barvinkove- Sloviansk direction somewhere to Izium and even to Shevchenkove area, where Ukrainain troops are conducting probes in Kupiansk direction.

 

 

Edited May 19, 2022 by Haiduk

[Chibot Mk IX]

4 hours ago, Hapless said:

So... lots of BMP-1s? I can kinda get seeing a few MTLBs because they're semi-ubiquitous utility vehicles, but not so many BMP-1s.

I mean, could be DPR/LPR vehicles, but committing the second-rate cannon fodder to an important operation is probably a sign of something worse.

Also: there's a chunk of BMP stuck in a tree!

No surprise, it could be one of the Russian BTG participated the battle around Chernihiv area who suffered relatively light causality (based on RA standard) but lost most of the heavy equipment during the retreat. So they probably took the equipment from a central Asia military base, refit and resupply for two weeks then be sent to the meat grinder again. 

 

[sburke]

brilliant!

Their app initiates calls to two Russian parties and conferences them together while they try and figure who called who.

Listen to hackers brilliantly wasting Russian officials' time with phone prank (msn.com)

[Haiduk]

58 minutes ago, akd said:

Hmm...deaths of sailors from the BSF's medium reconnaissance ship Ekvator:

 

I think, they maintained some SIGINT equipment on Zmiinyi island. 

[Kinophile]

Thank you @Haiduk

It sounds like Russia is still very much in the fight and will try another crossing.

if this 2nd attempts goes badly again, then

- RUS forces wont have learned from Bilhorivka

- The Donets will become the literal high water mark of the Donbass offensive.

- Steve will lose his mind

If they succeed, though, it sounds like a very dangerous moment for UKR forces on the further eastern edges of the Ukrainian"bulge".

Hopefully the UKR pressure above Izyum will begin to have more effects, although it's gone a bit quiet.

 

Edited May 19, 2022 by Kinophile

[Haiduk]

@sburke @Kinophile

Mayor Anatoliy Miagkov, last meantion of his service - 12th separate special force detachment "Ural" of Rosgvardia, Ural district of Rosgvardia. But due to his age he could be a fighter of Russian volunteer/PMC unit or some regular DPR unit 

 

Edited May 19, 2022 by Haiduk

[Suleyman]

1 minute ago, Kinophile said:

Thank you @Haiduk

It sounds like Russia is still very much in the fight and will try another crossing.

if this 2nd attempts goes badly again, then

- RUS forces wont have learned from Bilhorivka

- The Donets will become the literal high water mark of the Donbass offensive.

- Steve will lose his mind

If they succeed, though, it sounds like a very dangerous moment for UKR forces on the further eastern edges of the Ukrainian"bulge".

Hopefully the UKR pressure above Izyum will begin to have more effects, although it's gone a bit quiet.

 

lol!!!! at Steve losing his mind. If they even lose 1 more vehicle like that he just might.

[MSBoxer]

3 hours ago, womble said:

I don't suppose there are any 56-year old examples actually still fighting

I'm 56 and have trouble firing let alone fighting at times as well

 

Edited May 19, 2022 by MSBoxer

[Haiduk]

And welcome again.... Russian Orlan-10 was jammed today over Hostomel

[Kinophile]

Are UKR able to repurpose Orlans for themselves?

[akd]

39 minutes ago, Chibot Mk IX said:

No surprise, it could be one of the Russian BTG participated the battle around Chernihiv area who suffered relatively light causality (based on RA standard) but lost most of the heavy equipment during the retreat. So they probably took the equipment from a central Asia military base, refit and resupply for two weeks then be sent to the meat grinder again. 

 

No, this is the unit in question's standard equipment, not replacements.

[SeinfeldRules]

3 hours ago, akd said:

Second part of this important account from a Russian soldier is up:

 

Thank you for posting this. It paints a very dire picture for the force level of Russian infantry in Ukraine. It reads like some of the German WW2 memoirs where the situation was desperate and unit sizes were in name only. I also think it’s raises the question of how desperate manning levels must be on the Ukrainian side of things as well, at least in this part of the front. Surely they have a good picture of Russian force levels by now, that they would be able to launch successful attacks of their own (on this part of the front, I know there are local counterattacks elsewhere). The battles described seem to be small groups of units punching at each other in the dark over villages, hoping to achieve local success, rather then any set piece operation. 

Edited May 19, 2022 by SeinfeldRules

[Artkin]

The Orshanets series of maps from CMRT work really well in CMBS if you want to blow some crossing btgs up

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, SeinfeldRules said:

Thank you for posting this. It paints a very dire picture for the force level of Russian infantry in Ukraine. It reads like some of the German WW2 memoirs where the situation was desperate and unit sizes were in name only. I also think it’s raises the question of how desperate manning levels must be on the Ukrainian side of things as well, at least in this part of the front. Surely they have a good picture of Russian force levels by now, that they would be able to launch successful attacks of their own (on this part of the front, I know there are local counterattacks elsewhere). The battles described seem to be small groups of units punching at each other in the dark over villages, hoping to achieve local success, rather then any set piece operation. 

Unless I really read something wrong this guy's story pretty much happened around Kyiv, and the Russians did get booted out there.

[SeinfeldRules]

5 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Unless I really read something wrong this guy's story pretty much happened around Kyiv, and the Russians did get booted out there.

All the city names he mentioned seemed to be south of Izyum. 

[Hapless]

Another CM relevant one:

About halfway through, the tanks start to experience familiar pathfinding issues.

Also, someone has dumped a lot of artillery on that area and- took me a minute staring at the pixels- at least one of the tanks starts off with tank riders aboard.

Edited May 19, 2022 by Hapless
Found a better link

[Artkin]

5 minutes ago, Hapless said:

Another CM relevant one:

Did that guy get ran over at 1:10?

[dan/california]

10 minutes ago, SeinfeldRules said:

All the city names he mentioned seemed to be south of Izyum. 

Izyum, and Irpin are just locked together in my mind as one word....sorry about that

[Boche]

5 hours ago, Hapless said:

So... lots of BMP-1s? I can kinda get seeing a few MTLBs because they're semi-ubiquitous utility vehicles, but not so many BMP-1s.

I mean, could be DPR/LPR vehicles, but committing the second-rate cannon fodder to an important operation is probably a sign of something worse.

Also: there's a chunk of BMP stuck in a tree!

Not just the fact that they are BMP1s, but also they seem to be very old versions of them. Isnt that structure ontop of the cannon the launch system for AT-3s? Arent those like Cold War era variants? Is that a fair observation to make or is that detail insignificant?

[Cederic]

40 minutes ago, Artkin said:

Did that guy get ran over at 1:10?

Looked like he just dodged in time.. ..for the artillery to get him instead.

[Vacillator]

56 minutes ago, Hapless said:

the tanks start to experience familiar pathfinding issues

I really did LOL.  As for the video, a definite WTF moment...

[Artkin]

40 minutes ago, Cederic said:

Looked like he just dodged in time.. ..for the artillery to get him instead.

that tree trunk appears to be moving on the right at like 1:13 before getting run over