How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Cederic]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Army Recognition.com just took a credibility hit in my eyes.  Putting out a statement like that with only a hardcore, agenda driven, political extremist website as a source?

You mean the provision of Marder artillery tanks isn't true? :(

(I foolishly read the referenced website)

[SteelRain]

6 hours ago, Kinophile said:

No youre correct, but the numbers are different (14 Leo 1s to replace 20 T72s) and no Marders.

Im curious at the specificity of the amounts.

The Czech Republic will get 14 Leo 2's and one Leo2 ARV + 30 Day wartime ammo supply.  I haven't read anything about Marder IFV's nor Leo 1's for a while.

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Old video from the first couple of days of the war.  This of LPR forces crossing the Siverskyi Donets somewhere.  Look at this mess!!  Imagine that at any minute Ukraine could have attacked and what that would have meant.  Oh wait, I think we already know what that would look like

 

If the buildup for the attempted bridging was similar, one has to wonder why the casualties weren't higher. 

Time to send some C17's packed with old DPICM to Ukraine. So far we haven't seen this kind of munition in action, but with such a tight spacing between the vehicles, DPICM isn't really necessary I guess.

Edited May 22, 2022 by SteelRain

[poesel]

8 hours ago, Kinophile said:

https://www.armyrecognition.com/defense_news_may_2022_global_security_army_industry/rheinmetall_from_germany_prepares_the_supply_to_ukraine_of_88_leopard_1a5_tanks_and_100_marder_ifvs.html

The original source is a super leftist website even by German standards. The purpose of this article is to show that Scholz is a war-monger because he is sending this huge amount of weapons to Ukraine. Go figure.

The article also only states that Rheinmetall is preparing(!) the tanks for delivery. That actually might be true. I would do it in Rheinmetalls place. Just to be able to say that they could deliver tomorrow if someone gave it the go. I doubt they will get a better price for these things in the future.

Btw what made me chuckle is that they correctly translated 'Gepard' into 'Cheetah' but obviously missed the point.

[fireship4]

More Google Earth extravagance further to my previous post:

Quote

 

Soviet military 1:100,000 maps 'M-37-125' and 'M-37-113' overlaid on the area.

Crops from a Soviet military 1:50,000 map overlaid on the area.

'Base Maps of Ukraine - Elevation' overlaid on the area.

Looking from the north edge of Popasna facing 'Hill 311' (marked approximately with a yellow pin).

From above.

A larger overlay.

 

Alas the flight ends there.  I had in fact imported the whole BMU-E into Google Earth, about 180 images, and was positioning for a shot when the whole thing crashed, losing almost all the work I had done over the previous hours.  Bastard. 

I will do it again if I feel it serves enough purpose (I did wonder if it was worth it as I realised how long it was taking), and can perhaps provide for requests should the posts not prove instructional, time allowing.

Edited May 22, 2022 by fireship4

[akd]

Never gets old:

 

[Harmon Rabb]

The President of Poland visited the Ukrainian parliament in person.

Relations between Poland and Ukraine seem better than ever.

Edited May 22, 2022 by Harmon Rabb

[akd]

Oh wait, Viktor Shayga was not done with his thoughts on fighting in Ukraine:

https://justpaste.it/8lecl

[LongLeftFlank]

23 hours ago, akd said:

Final (4th) part of Russian volunteer Victor Shayga’s account of fighting in the Izium area:

https://justpaste.it/2ix7w

Many thanks, this series is very important reading.

This guy is a relative rarity; an educated Russian who volunteered for the colours. But I'm not sure whether this is his samizdat. or just another flavour of Strelkov.

Our division's zampolit once spoke to us after we refused to go into assaults.... He was confident we all came to fight in Ukraine for money, and that if any of us was making more than 120,000 rubles a month in Russia, then we wouldn't come here. What can be said about this?

But of course, the 'Banderites' are evil....

They also said that they saw how once our guys got captured and were walked across a field by the banderites. Ours decided to strike all of them with ATGMs - both ours and Ukrainians, just so ours wouldn't get captured and tortured. In my opinion that was the right thing to do, it's better to die instantly like that than be tortured for days in the hands of these inhumans. 

*****

'Happy men don't volunteer.'

 

Most of them were in their first good pair of boots. When the boots wore out, they'd be ready to listen.

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Many thanks, this series is very important reading.

This guy is a relative rarity; an educated Russian who volunteered for the colours. But I'm not sure whether this is his samizdat. or just another flavour of Strelkov.

Our division's zampolit once spoke to us after we refused to go into assaults.... He was confident we all came to fight in Ukraine for money, and that if any of us was making more than 120,000 rubles a month in Russia, then we wouldn't come here. What can be said about this?

But of course, the 'Banderites' are evil....

They also said that they saw how once our guys got captured and were walked across a field by the banderites. Ours decided to strike all of them with ATGMs - both ours and Ukrainians, just so ours wouldn't get captured and tortured. In my opinion that was the right thing to do, it's better to die instantly like that than be tortured for days in the hands of these inhumans. 

*****

'Happy men don't volunteer.'

 

Most of them were in their first good pair of boots. When the boots wore out, they'd be ready to listen.

Yah I was struck by the illogical logic - Russian artillery shelled what it thought was enemy infantry, but he couldn't accept the idea that it was crappy friendly fire and rationalised it as a "mercy killing" by Russian command ( the same command he excoriates for incompetence snd blind cruelty).

Initially his stuff reads pretty intelligent and "normal", but this Ivan has fully and cognizantly accepted the untermenschen trope, the Ukrainians are are not a real people theme, etc. Hes just another Strelkov.

...Which is not a good thing, because has has been noted, the LAST people UKR want in charge of Russia or the (Not-but-Is-A) War Effort at any level are intelligent, nationalistic fascists like Ghirkin and this guy. Kill off enough incompetent,corrupt stooges and eventually someone like this horrible person will step into an important role and start doing some real commanding and motivating...

 

Edited May 22, 2022 by Kinophile

[Chibot Mk IX]

a criticism on how TDF Bn was incorrectly managed and used, guess this is related to the battle around Popasna   

 

UKRAINE'S TERRITORIAL DEFENSE FORCES AT WAR: LESSONS LEARNED

 

[Huba]

17 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

From where I sit, the only way Ukraine is going to get over the Dnepr in the Kherson area is after they have fully cleared the west bank AND compelled the Russians to pull back from the eastern bank.  I do not think it is feasible for Ukraine to do an opposed crossing for anything more than light infantry raids.

I still think the best plan is to clear out all Russian forces on the western bank including Kherson, if possible.  The primary goal being to free up forces that are currently needed for containment duties.  The Russians are far away from logistics hubs so they won't likely do well if Ukraine starts pushing hard.  I'd start with clearing out and isolating Kherson in order to obligate the Russians north of there to retreat or, ideally, get pinched off.

With the west bank secure, forces could be relocated over the Dnepr at Zaporizhzhia.  Drive south towards Melitopol while also clearing out the eastern bank of the Dnepr.  Try and advance down to Crimea and obligate Russia pulling out of Kherson if it hasn't already.  Blockade Crimea call it a success.

The purpose of this offensive is not to pocket and destroy Russian forces, though it could happen in a few places.  The purpose isn't even to cut off the supply lines out of Crimea as they aren't of much use to anybody other than the forces to be dislodged.  Instead, the primary purpose is to take back a large swath of land, killing a lot of Russians in the process, and then winding up with a shorter and more geographically flexible frontline.

Steve

We all find the southern axis the most probable for Ukrainian counteroffensive I think, and so do the analysts that dare to speak about the subject. In the scenario you outlined I would disagree with the "blockade the Crimea" part. If Ukraine is able to pull off the offensive that liberates whole Kherson, IMO it is Crimea that should be next. From all the occupied territories, this is the one that when liberated, changes the whole strategic picture, giving almost complete dominance of the Black Sea and lifts the sea blockade (arguably, Russia still could fly aircraft from the Caucasus region, it would be desperate though). Moving frontline in Donbas some kilometers in one or other direction makes no strategic difference in comparison. The food crisis stemming from UA naval blockade is really becoming a hot topic recently, and narrative is already being built that UA can lift the blockade militarily, assuming it has the proper equipment, i.e. anti-ship missiles and MLRS (including ATACMS). 

Assuming there's political will to do so, how difficult would it be to move into Crimea? It seems to me that the only real problem is forcing the way through Perekop Isthmus - apart from that, the whole pennisula is really isolated with whole logistics based on a single bridge and few ports.

[LongLeftFlank]

I was expecting Michael Palin to cycle by or something

Edited May 22, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[LongLeftFlank]

38 minutes ago, Huba said:

We all find the southern axis the most probable for Ukrainian counteroffensive I think, and so do the analysts that dare to speak about the subject. In the scenario you outlined I would disagree with the "blockade the Crimea" part. If Ukraine is able to pull off the offensive that liberates whole Kherson, IMO it is Crimea that should be next. From all the occupied territories, this is the one that when liberated, changes the whole strategic picture, giving almost complete dominance of the Black Sea and lifts the sea blockade (arguably, Russia still could fly aircraft from the Caucasus region, it would be desperate though). Moving frontline in Donbas some kilometers in one or other direction makes no strategic difference in comparison. The food crisis stemming from UA naval blockade is really becoming a hot topic recently, and narrative is already being built that UA can lift the blockade militarily, assuming it has the proper equipment, i.e. anti-ship missiles and MLRS (including ATACMS). 

Assuming there's political will to do so, how difficult would it be to move into Crimea? It seems to me that the only real problem is forcing the way through Perekop Isthmus - apart from that, the whole pennisula is really isolated with whole logistics based on a single bridge and few ports.

 

 

See, part of the beauty here is that it doesn't actually *have* to attack, or even roll in the full unit. Just let the troops get a whiff of grapeshot while the Russians run themselves ragged (yet more) trying to counter the threat, at the expense of other fronts. Interior line asymetry, like a force of nature. 

Pure Sun Tzu....

Edited May 22, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[c3k]

2 hours ago, akd said:

Never gets old:

 

Gotta admire the skill! I mean, correcting for windage for a long drop is pretty hard, and they were spot on. Twice. Whereas I've never dropped anti-armor munitions from a drone, I have spit off the top of some pretty tall buildings. It never lands where you think it would...

 

[Huba]

11 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

 

See, part of the beauty here is that it doesn't actually *have* to attack, or even roll in the full unit. Just let the troops get a whiff of grapeshot while the Russians run themselves ragged (yet more) trying to counter the threat, at the expense of other fronts.

Pure Sun Tzu....

Well, assuming UA wants to control the territory, it would have to move there at some point. Of course preferably when all the Russians died in unnecessary attacks

 

4 minutes ago, c3k said:

Gotta admire the skill! I mean, correcting for windage for a long drop is pretty hard, and they were spot on. Twice. Whereas I've never dropped anti-armor munitions from a drone, I have spit off the top of some pretty tall buildings. It never lands where you think it would...

 

Probably with at little training you could adjust very easily - the wind speed and direction data should be available from the drone itself,  you could even produce a correction table for a given type of bomb.

Edited May 22, 2022 by Huba

[c3k]

2 hours ago, akd said:

Oh wait, Viktor Shayga was not done with his thoughts on fighting in Ukraine:

https://justpaste.it/8lecl

On the one hand, he repudiates EVERYTHING he's ever been told by his government or their propaganda organs. And then, he discusses his hatred of Ukraine because of what he's been told.

The morale issues his unit had (has?) are, hopefully, symptomatic of the entire Russian army. And based on their performance, it's not far off...

[c3k]

1 hour ago, Chibot Mk IX said:

a criticism on how TDF Bn was incorrectly managed and used, guess this is related to the battle around Popasna   

 

UKRAINE'S TERRITORIAL DEFENSE FORCES AT WAR: LESSONS LEARNED

 

That's...a sobering read.  Beyond the clinical terms used, I can only imagine how badly those people in that TDF unit suffered. Time to toss that Brigade Commander out and reassign him into a position more in line with his abilities, like chief minefield finder.

[cesmonkey]

14 minutes ago, c3k said:

That's...a sobering read.  Beyond the clinical terms used, I can only imagine how badly those people in that TDF unit suffered. Time to toss that Brigade Commander out and reassign him into a position more in line with his abilities, like chief minefield finder.

So what do you do when your defensive lines are nearing the breaking point and all that you have available to fill the holes are territorial defense units?  Retreat to a more defensible line that your existing units can defend?  What if that more defensible line is a long way away?

I don't have answers for this. Just questions.

[danfrodo]

Anyone ever watch Denys Davydov for UKR war info?  Nice 'big picture' view of the war plus what's up locally, ~daily content.  He's a Ukrainian commercial airline pilot.  He just today posted a longer review on where the war has been, where it is, and where it's going.  He's calm, balanced, and seems to know his stuff. 

A couple days ago he mentioned big UKR offensive(s) would come sometime mid-June to early July.  Which made me realize I keep looking for some big event, day after day, that probably isn't coming.  UKR is building a proper war machine with the incoming weapons and new troops.  Contrast this to RU that is desperately hurling every warm body and 30+ yr old BMP it can find at the front lines.

https://www.youtube.com/c/RoadHomeMotorcycleVlogs

 

[danfrodo]

and on other thoughts, I am confused as to why UKR would even consider crossing the Dneiper?  Going via Melitopol axis would be a fight, but there's no giant river to cross and LOC over one or two easily interdicted bridges.

[Taranis]

Stupid hint for the site UAWarData, it's possible by keeping right-click on the mouse to move the view from upside to 45°
https://uawardata.com/
I hadn't noticed it before. It might be useless for you but who knows.

[kraze]

2 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Yah I was struck by the illogical logic - Russian artillery shelled what it thought was enemy infantry, but he couldn't accept the idea that it was crappy friendly fire and rationalised it as a "mercy killing" by Russian command ( the same command he excoriates for incompetence snd blind cruelty).

Initially his stuff reads pretty intelligent and "normal", but this Ivan has fully and cognizantly accepted the untermenschen trope, the Ukrainians are are not a real people theme, etc. Hes just another Strelkov.

...Which is not a good thing, because has has been noted, the LAST people UKR want in charge of Russia or the (Not-but-Is-A) War Effort at any level are intelligent, nationalistic fascists like Ghirkin and this guy. Kill off enough incompetent,corrupt stooges and eventually someone like this horrible person will step into an important role and start doing some real commanding and motivating...

 

Eh I don't think a smart guy would change anything for the "better" for Russia. At the end of a day your typical russian invader is still an uneducated nazi, who believes he's exceptional and can't be touched by untermenschen and cares only about looting toilets and maybe some rape and torture on the side.

Russia has always been extremely corrupt and anti-humane, russian soldiers were always barbaric. Their history is non-stop genocides and concentration camps. Their military successes were because only half a century ago wars were won by the numbers.

Apparently things have changed a lot when technology and education among officers started to matter. So the only way for russians to be effective is by being run by educated people. But educated people cannot exist in authoritarian states that celebrate genocides and warcrimes and make warcriminals state heroes. Educated people get killed in those long before they mature enough. So some Girkin, himself very uneducated and having the same imperialist-communist mess in his head, running the show won't change the rest of the officers and soldiers.

And if Russia is to become educated and start celebrating intelligence... it will cease existing, because other enslaved peoples will start asking questions like it was in late 80s.

Edited May 22, 2022 by kraze

[chrisl]

5 hours ago, fireship4 said:

More Google Earth extravagance further to my previous post:

Alas the flight ends there.  I had in fact imported the whole BMU-E into Google Earth, about 180 images, and was positioning for a shot when the whole thing crashed, losing almost all the work I had done over the previous hours.  Bastard. 

I will do it again if I feel it serves enough purpose (I did wonder if it was worth it as I realised how long it was taking), and can perhaps provide for requests should the posts not prove instructional, time allowing.

None of the images are displaying for me - I tried two different browsers.

[The_MonkeyKing]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

 

 

See, part of the beauty here is that it doesn't actually *have* to attack, or even roll in the full unit. Just let the troops get a whiff of grapeshot while the Russians run themselves ragged (yet more) trying to counter the threat, at the expense of other fronts. Interior line asymetry, like a force of nature. 

Pure Sun Tzu....

If truly the main APC equipment is YPR-765 Dutch gave a lot more of them than expected. At least a hundred or so

[Kinophile]

22 minutes ago, kraze said:

At the end of a day your typical russian invader is still an uneducated nazi, 

Sure, average Ivans - but this guy isnt some dumb nightclub thug. He's got a brain, and is perfectly capable of analysis, assessing and judging a situation and/or system. What he doesn't have is the moral capacity to question his own upbring, social views or the values of his society/government writ large. That's the combo that's dangerous - a functional, analytical mind with an impenetrable nationalistic and bigoted filter.

And I highly doubt he's the only one. It just that the system, for now and very luckily for Ukraine, destroys and regresses people like him from higher positions. But no political system is truely static and lasts for ever, especially under the strains of a failing war. Something will change, inevitably.

I'm not saying these amoral toilet-humpers  can win the war for Russia but they could make it a lot, lot worse and even stalemate it, if the "right" people are in the right positions. They could motivate their forces in a way that the current crop of mafia-sucking, money-grubbing "officer" corps cannot.

22 minutes ago, kraze said:

But educated people cannot exist in authoritarian states that celebrate genocides and warcrimes and make warcriminals state heroes. Educated people get killed in those long before they mature enough. So some Girkin, himself very uneducated and having the same imperialist-communist mess in his head, running the show won't change the rest of the officers and soldiers.

I think you're equating educated with moralistic, which doesn't match reality or even history. A LOT of Republican voters in the US, Brexit voters in the UK (and anti-divorce/abortion/gay rights in Ireland) had college level education, even PhDs - yet they all instinctively reject logical arguments and blatant reality in favour of narratives that mesh with their personal emotional priorities. At the extreme end, lots of SS were highly educated and utterly, totally  amoral. Plenty of Japanese Officers had university degrees and were completely barbaric in their treatment of non-Japanese.  

Typically we'd hope education equals a developed moral center but its really just a deeper knowledge library from which one can pick and choose what we want to keep. Morals cannot be locked in through just education; they're absorbed from society as whole, from parents, media messaging, etc. Once we pass a certain age the principals are embedded in us.

Edited May 22, 2022 by Kinophile