kinophile

@DMS Poke and poke, troll for reaction... Same crap, different thread. I like the new stuff but it's always fun to hear the classics @Haiduk you reviewed previously my question re amphibious attack into Meritpol. I'm curious - you didn't fully dismiss it (naturally, anything is possible in war) and noted it would probably take the form of infiltration /raids level. But this ignores airborne options... If a full contact war has blown up along the Donbass line, I'm curious could UKR actually resist a determined sea & air assault along that coast? Even the act of shifting units

@Haiduk how sensible/feasible is a RUS amphibious attack towards Melitopol, and then seperately into Kherson? I don't know the terrain, UKR force dispositions or geographical obstacles, but it would look like a good move - use combat on the Donbas frontline to suck in UKR units, then strike behind at Melitopol. Then strike into Kherson; isolate and bombard all units between Melitopol and Kherson. No need to unite Donbass and this new bite,but use the two zones to force a retreat of UKR line to the Dniper. Ahhh, fantasy pipe dreams....

Referring doc https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2563.html

RAND report, various scenarios for Russian Ground Forces. Part of a series examine RGF as a discrete whole. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2563z1.html

Those nighttime shots are great. But I've always found the CMBS tank/afv flashes to be a few frames too long. I investigated shortening them, by taking the pngs and literally replacing some frames at the end with empty files, but didn't work. Should be the correct approach, though...

This would make a superb mission pack. New and Unique situation (for now...give it 5 years and this type of strategic concern will be way more prevalent...). That's interesting, how infrastructure improvement could be a harbinger of an attack. Although, as you note, it would make sense (given Russia's somewhat limited resources in the area?) to hold off construction or attack until absolutely necessary. Conditions driving that threshold could be increasing civilian unrest in Crimea due to water issues, although realistically the Govt will only truly care when the military starts to g

I'd be game to attempt that. I've some good friends who speak Ukrainian, here in Toronto. Do you have a list of those articles you consider good sources/coverage?

Thanks @Haiduk This is one of the more "accurate" (?) or at least more detailed, Western accounts that I've seen publicly, but as you note there are discrepancies in timeline and particular events. Do you have a link to that official UKR account?

"Violent clashes between Ukrainian and Russian tanks occurred, with Ukrainian reconnaissance units even managing to penetrate into the center of the town.[56] Although ultimately the attack failed in recapturing the village, the rapid Ukrainian counterattacks, in close cooperation with artillery, did enable them to block any further separatist advance in the direction of Debaltseve. "

"Nine kilometers north of Debaltseve, near the village of Sanzharivka, height 307.5 likewise played a crucial role in covering the M3 approach, this time from the north. Manning strong point “Valera” on top of the hill, was a platoon belonging to 15th battalion of the 128th brigade. Equipped with just two BMP-2s, a few heavy machine guns and several types of grenade launchers, they were reinforced with a single T-64 tank, belonging to the 17th brigade. Its ammunition seized from a separatists T-64 that was taken out in front of the position the day before.[46] On January 25, the first in a ser

https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/battle-debaltseve-hybrid-army-classic-battle-encirclement Interesting read.

Ive never bought that OH GOD ITS GONNA BE SO UNIQUELY HARD FOR PROFESSIONAL ARMIES vibe. From a non-military POV, Professionals can make any situation work. It's the political tripwires that screw up the success of operations.

https://tnsr.org/2019/10/the-city-is-neutral-on-urban-warfare-in-the-21st-century/ Interesting look that varies from the trope of "western armies will find future urban warfare extra hard". Been gone for ages, quick dip back into the pool

So Russian targeting/guidance generally works by directing the ATGM itself, during flight, in a given direction? US targeting generally works by designating the end-point for the ATGM, with the expectation that it will self-adjust to match? Russian is more "hands-on" (for want of a better phrase) all the way to impact, where as US is more hands-off once desired impact indicated (which can change mid-flight). Am I fumbling my comprehension?

Oh they'll hop out when the AFV syops from hostile Fire? Ie if it is disabled? It its AI pauses to return fire?