How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, gnarly said:

No idea of the robustness/valiidity of this source, but it popped up in my feed:

 

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/rusi-defence-systems/russian-air-force-actually-incapable-complex-air-operations

 

 

Yup, read that one and a similar one from a different (known) think tank.  Same overall conclusions... the Russians have not invested in the sorts of equipment, personnel, training, and practice for running a large scale air campaign.  Add this to not thinking they needed one because the Ukrainians would fold up on Day 1 and it's pretty easy to see why Russia's performance in the air has been extremely sub par.  And it seems to be getting worse now that Ukraine's getting the hang of shooting down aircraft.  Depending on source, Russia lost 2-6 fixed wing aircraft yesterday and 5-8 helicopters.  Those sorts of losses are not sustainable.

Steve

[kraze]

4 hours ago, Zveroboy1 said:

Video compression glitch more like; the same thing that people used to claim Hillary Clinton was a lizard.

 

Considering that putin forces his most trusted men to sit 20m away in his bunker for months now - and here he sits among nobodies like it's nothing - I doubt it's just a compression artifact.

[chuckdyke]

He gets beaten by General Covidnov. 

[Zveroboy1]

12 minutes ago, kraze said:

Considering that putin forces his most trusted men to sit 20m away in his bunker for months now - and here he sits among nobodies like it's nothing - I doubt it's just a compression artifact.

There are different camera angles in the footage I provided and all. This would be way too much work to edit. And there is another video of the same meeting and exact same moment with a higher resolution where it looks perfectly normal. This is most definitely video compression artefacts. And why would you not simply green screen him with the microphone already present on the footage before editing it? Makes zero sense sorry.

Also have you ever considered the fact that the super long table he used during the talks with Macron could have been some sort of psychological trick? It is a common trick to destabilize your interlocutor. Having him sit on a slightly smaller chair etc. He did just that with Merkel who is known to dislike dogs by having one in order to make her uncomfortable.

[Vergeltungswaffe]

2 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

I know emotions are high and people are venting, but I'd really rather stick to the military situation here.

+1

[Yskonyn]

Who are those airline people anyway? Some look like stewardesses. If so I have a hard time believing Putin would have a banquet for airline crew and discuss the things he supposedly says in the undertitle.

I’ve never had a meeting with our PM briefing us on security issues ever and I don’t see it happening in wartime either.

Anyway, this is assuming these people are airline crew, which obviously I don’t know.
Does anyone know who these people are?

@Zveroboy1 makes a good point to boot, though.

Edited March 6, 2022 by Yskonyn

[cyrano01]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yup, read that one and a similar one from a different (known) think tank.  Same overall conclusions... the Russians have not invested in the sorts of equipment, personnel, training, and practice for running a large scale air campaign.  Add this to not thinking they needed one because the Ukrainians would fold up on Day 1 and it's pretty easy to see why Russia's performance in the air has been extremely sub par.  And it seems to be getting worse now that Ukraine's getting the hang of shooting down aircraft.  Depending on source, Russia lost 2-6 fixed wing aircraft yesterday and 5-8 helicopters.  Those sorts of losses are not sustainable.

Steve

When I read the two RUSI reports and saw the spike in a/c losses in the last 24-48 hours I wondered if  Putin and the top brass were starting to push the VVS into stepping up their intensity and forcing them out of their comfort/competence zone.

[LongLeftFlank]

3 hours ago, Zveroboy1 said:

I don't think Putin is ready to quit just yet personally. The land bridge to Donbas could be a way to save face and cut his losses but Mariupol is bound to fall sooner or later and then that would probably free up a lot of troops and the Russians could resume their advance towards the north....

There is one thing that makes a bit cautious though and that's why I try to remain measured : this war is covered in such a way that it is akin to a boxing match where you only get to see one half of the ring and one single boxer. You see one boxer taking a lot of punches but even though he is clearly fumbling a lot you are not really seeing how many of his own punches are landing.

Yup. However, while the Russians are (trying to) make a big deal of UA 'Azov nazis' pocketed in Mariupol (how many?), the fiercest fighting seems to be in the towns north, between there and Donetsk, involving separatist militias ("Sparta" battalion), plus Chechen units fighting on both sides (clan feuds). And of course those Azov Nazi guys.

So I have no idea whether this grab bag of Russian forces will be up for 'thrusting' northward toward Zaporozhe and Dnepro once they've taken Mariupol and the Azov sea coast, as seems likely to occur.

The second photo seems to show the sea at the top, so presumably Mariupol?

Note: ZOKA is a Serb beating drums for the Russians, so season to taste. The next clip is a little odd though; while Ukis are capturing or burning whole RA columns 30 vehicles at a time, here you see Russians triumphantly despoiling, umm, about 5 rounds of 9mm, Azov nazi gym equipment and some 1995 field manuals?  Well, urrah pobeda, dudes.  Not exactly the destruction of Army Group Center going on here.

 

 

[Strykr45]

If you study war, you know it is all about deception.

Appear weak when you are strong......

and strong when you are weak.

The last thing I would believe is the media/twitter/fakebook etc. (propaganda)

That 40 mile/kilometer convoy didn't just run out of gas.

It also indicates Air Supremacy.

 

Edited March 6, 2022 by Strykr45

[kraze]

2 hours ago, Zveroboy1 said:

There are different camera angles in the footage I provided and all. This would be way too much work to edit. And there is another video of the same meeting and exact same moment with a higher resolution where it looks perfectly normal. This is most definitely video compression artefacts. And why would you not simply green screen him with the microphone already present on the footage before editing it? Makes zero sense sorry.

Also have you ever considered the fact that the super long table he used during the talks with Macron could have been some sort of psychological trick? It is a common trick to destabilize your interlocutor. Having him sit on a slightly smaller chair etc. He did just that with Merkel who is known to dislike dogs by having one in order to make her uncomfortable.

Are you telling me he used the same trick on his minister of "defense" and a head of intelligence - and also on the whole security council, consisting of dozens of people, which was forced to sit about 30 m away from him, almost outside of the room?

So not even his closest, most loyal men aren't allowed anywhere near him, but a bunch of random chicks would?

Also there's no such thing as "too much work" for russian fake makers. They are doing it for 100 years now, since the first mass media appeared in russia.

[kraze]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Yup. However, while the Russians are (trying to) make a big deal of UA 'Azov nazis' pocketed in Mariupol (how many?), the fiercest fighting seems to be in the towns north, between there and Donetsk, involving separatist militias ("Sparta" battalion), plus Chechen units fighting on both sides (clan feuds). And of course those Azov Nazi guys.

So I have no idea whether this grab bag of Russian forces will be up for 'thrusting' northward toward Zaporozhe and Dnepro once they've taken Mariupol and the Azov sea coast, as seems likely to occur.

The second photo seems to show the sea at the top, so presumably Mariupol?

Note: ZOKA is a Serb beating drums for the Russians, so season to taste. The next clip is a little odd though; while Ukis are capturing or burning whole RA columns 30 vehicles at a time, here you see Russians triumphantly despoiling, umm, about 5 rounds of 9mm, Azov nazi gym equipment and some 1995 field manuals?  Well, urrah pobeda, dudes.  Not exactly the destruction of Army Group Center going on here.

 

 

Can you actually elaborate what exactly makes Azov - "nazi"?

[Geoff-Ludumpress]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

between there and Donetsk, involving separatist militias ("Sparta" battalion), plus Chechen units fighting on both sides (clan feuds). And of course those Azov Nazi guys.

Here's a Sparta  video from several days ago 'Sparta entered Volnovakha'. I note how the drone is used to increase the situational awareness.  

 

[Sarjen]

I can't recall if this was already posted. There is a leaked report from  a former FSB employee but confirmed by Bellingcat et al. . Interesting TL;DR : We were not told that an invasion was going to happen, we did our analyses for the scenario that a meteor would fall on Russia. We did not calculate the sanctions of the west. We don't have anything left to occupy Ukraine after we win the war. Syria forces will be abandoned bc they don't get resupply enough.

And the translation to english:

 

Edited March 6, 2022 by Sarjen

[Zveroboy1]

31 minutes ago, kraze said:

So not even his closest, most loyal men aren't allowed anywhere near him, but a bunch of random chicks would?

Believe it is a green screen if you want. You sound hell bent on it anyway so no amount of debunking is going to convince you.

[c3k]

12 minutes ago, Zveroboy1 said:

Believe it is a green screen if you want. You sound hell bent on it anyway so no amount of debunking is going to convince you.

Putin, in my opinion, is acting like any long-term dictator would when seeing that his country is faltering under his leadership.

1. Every member of the ruling class, down to about 3 levels (or more?) beneath him, is a potential threat or rival.

2. Foreign leaders and delegates are also enemies and need to be put at a psychological disadvantage.

For those two reasons, Putin likes the "strong man" image and uses distance to reinforce his superiority over both groups. As well, distance makes it much harder to kill him.

3. Flight attendants can sit at normal distances.

They are not a threat. In fact, he's trying to show "Papa Putin" image to them and the rest of the nation.

That, to me, explains why he chooses the various seat placements.

[Commanderski]

[melm]

2 hours ago, Sarjen said:

I can't recall if this was already posted. There is a leaked report from  a former FSB employee but confirmed by Bellingcat et al. . Interesting TL;DR : We were not told that an invasion was going to happen, we did our analyses for the scenario that a meteor would fall on Russia. We did not calculate the sanctions of the west. We don't have anything left to occupy Ukraine after we win the war. Syria forces will be abandoned bc they don't get resupply enough.

And the translation to english:

 

Perhaps it's written by 'former' FSB employee. But it contains no other information besides the public. The rest is just some deduction.

[BeondTheGrave]

2 hours ago, Zveroboy1 said:

Believe it is a green screen if you want. You sound hell bent on it anyway so no amount of debunking is going to convince you.

Is this a deepfake? Lmao

[Haiduk]

Looks like yesrterday Russians threw into the battle some reserves on NW Kyiv direction. Old Russian T-72B tanks were spotted in action. There was sporadic clashes around the towns, but reportedly UKR forces withdrew, because there are many civilians left in these towns and its can be completely ruined during intensive actions. So, Bucha and Hostomel, which were contested area now in enemy's hands. Reportedly Russian murdered several civilians and shot out three civil volunteers, which supply the town with a food. 

Also enemy forces present on Irpin' outskirts, but this town because of demolished bridges not of their interest, so UKR forces are trying to evacuate civilians through Irpin'. Part of citizens were evacuated in previous two days.

Yesterdays photo, civilians hide under the demolished bridge in Irpin' untill enemy fire stop.

Enemy periodically shell the streets of Irpin' and already four civilans were killed. Here the video of hit on Irpin' street, looks like the guy from territorial defense got wounded and civilian hit further on the street  

Irpin' evacuation

Today's morning was heard intensive artillery exchanes far away N and NW of Kyiv. 

Reportedly two missiles were shot down over the city

On eastern direction - our troops hit TOR M1 near Brovary, Kyiv oblast

 

 

Edited March 6, 2022 by Haiduk

[BeondTheGrave]

5 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Reportedly two missiles were shot down over the city

 

 

[Haiduk]

Russians today aslo hit Starokostiantyniv (Khmelnytskyi oblast) and Havryshivka airfields (near Vinnytsia). Over the first airfield all missiles except one were intercepted, three of airfield personnel ere wounded. Looks lie in Havrishivka on the photo at least two from three hit the target. Reportedly missiles came from Transnistria side.

This night Russian aviatin also hevy bombed residentail aras of Korosten' and Ovruch towns in Zhytomyr oblast. Dozens of homesteads destroyed. At least one killed and abouit dozen wounded.

On the photo the Ovruch after the strike

Edited March 6, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Russian D-30 battery, destroyed near Mykolaiv

This city is defending very tough - young city mayor and on wartime the chief of city military administratin Yury Kim (he has Korean origins) can effectively prepare the city to defense in short time, he properly organized territorial defense units. All this wasn't made by Kherson city and oblast administration, which actually shirked this works, which led to quick loss of Kherson oblast.

Yesterday they repelled big offensive and captured many enemy vehcies.

Just now Mykolaiv repelled another attack, supported with tanks and UKR forces captured next Tigr armored car. Yury Kim on the video is joiking now he has personal Tigr

This is second Su-30SM, shot down yesterday. It fell near Chapaivka village 33 km north from Ochakiv naval base, Mykolaiv oblast. Pilots captured.

 

Reportedly, Russians now trying to turn NW from Mykolaiv and to advance toward Voznesensk airfield and Pivdennoukraisk, where nuclear plant is situated.

Edited March 6, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Kharkiv is suffering from continuos bombings. Reportedly about 4-5 Russian jets circling over the city and periodically drop own deadly cargo

This is last strike consequences

MANPAD-hunter on the street of Kharkiv. Reportedly Russian jet was shot down a hour ago over the city, maybe later it will be confirmed. Also one Russian jet was shot down in Odesa oblast, also w/o confirmation for now

 

 

[BornGinger]

Did I understand this correctly? Are these soldiers belorussian citizens fighting for Ukraine and against Russia, Chechen orcs and possibly the Belorussian Army if it already has crossed the ukrainian border?

 

Edited March 6, 2022 by BornGinger

[Suchy]

@UrodzonyGinger

Yes!