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LongLeftFlank last won the day on February 27 2023
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LongLeftFlank reacted to a post in a topic: How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
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https://nationalsecuritynews.com/2024/03/exclusive-satellite-images-reveal-the-expansion-of-russian-war-cemeteries-following-huge-troops-losses-in-ukraine/ Especially VDV division home cities.
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Duuude, this is the LongLeftFlank© gambit I've preached before here; others have too. As our @The_Capt hath taught us, this is the very thing that the AFU has been doing brilliantly since 23 Feb: set the RU up in no-win situations and then force them to ride the hell ride anyway. Planting bushels of landmines and lobbing in giant bombs won't help Ivan out of this one. There's just too much squishy ground to cover. Their only possible counter is to feed in equally tough swamp rat infantry, but even after 2 years my read is even VDV just don't have the C4ISR to match the Ukes. Kinburn spit. ...All that said, those Ukrainian forces are going to suffer heavy losses, make no mistake.
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Augh! I love you man, but for the sake of YHVH, don't go there, or at least not on here!!!!
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1. There are migrants in desperate parts of the world who would man the modern equivalent of Birkenau crematoria blocks if they could wire home 700usd per month. 2. That said, they can't wire home that monthly pay if they are missing arms, legs or their heads; or if it's simply getting stolen. And word will get around, fast. 3. My personal KPI for Russia running out of mercenary cred, FWIW, is Norks. The Kim dynasty has sent thousands of young men to awful jobs in inclement parts of USSR/Russia (logging camps, mines) to earn money for the glorious Juche state ever since the Gulag tailed off. Their opinion in the matter is not requested. I suspect there are already some DPKA military specialists working to support the RUAF. When tiny corpses of (underfed) Korean kids start showing up in the storm units, we'll know other options for mercs are running down for Putin Inc.
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Thanks for this, and as of 2022 I might have agreed with most of this. But consider the following: 1. The Krynki bridgehead remains after 4+ months, in spite of nonstop attacks by Russian heavy forces + VDV. And that's a zone the Russians can actually supply via a major highway. It's hell for the Uke marines who are there, indeed, but they and their support forces are also giving better than they get, by plastering the RU attacks and LOCs. 2. The further you get down the delta (past the Kherson bridge), the harder it is for the Ivans to deploy and sustain heavy forces -- AFVs, shells, in that boggy, poorly roaded area. I'd actually argue that their logistical challenge out there is WORSE than the Ukrainian one. At a bare minimum, this zone is flypaper to chew up their best remaining troops (VDV/Spetsnaz) as sustaining mech is going to be a nightmare. Pure Sun Tzu. 3. On the other hand, there's plenty of space in those bayou lands for savvy crack troops to spread out and minimise the damage from glide bombs. Drone airlift/medevac and drone ships can keep Ranger battalions supplied indefinitely; heavy forces, no, but they're not useful here. The Cossacks invented these tactics hundreds of years ago. 4. The RU aircraft and helos are going to need to make attack runs from the southeast, given that the Western Black Sea is quickly becoming a Ukrainian lake.... 5. In spite of being marshlands, Kinburn spit east to Oleshky sands is probably the most essential strategic territory for Ukraine to recover, as the Russians can be expected to build another Sebastopol there in a cease fire situation so as to menace the entire Kherson-Mykolaiv-Odesa portion of Ukraine. I'd actually argue that this is a must have! Look forward to your reply, as none of the above is going to be easy....
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This may have been posted before but a thread search didn't find it. Important points here though by Watling. https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russian-military-objectives-and-capacity-ukraine-through-2024 The Russian military began 2023 with a highly disorganised force in Ukraine comprising approximately 360,000 troops.... By the beginning of 2024, the Russian Operational Group of Forces in the occupied territories comprised 470,000 troops.... Russian forces have reverted above battalion level to the traditional Soviet order of battle of regiments, divisions and combined arms armies, but have been significantly altered below the level of the regiment. Battalions are organised as line and storm battalions, and tend to operate in company groups which fight in small, dispersed detachments [due to a] shortage of trained officers able to coordinate larger formations, with a significant proportion of Russian junior officers currently being promoted from the ranks.... Units can generally be rotated out of the line once they have taken up to 30% casualties – the point at which they are judged to be ineffective – and are then regenerated.... In this way, the Russians are maintaining a consistent pressure on a number of points.... If Ukraine's partners continue to provide sufficient ammunition and training support to the AFU to enable the blunting of Russian attacks in 2024, then Russia is unlikely to achieve significant gains in 2025.
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Ha ha, no. They might possibly be, if China wasn't sitting on the Spratlys.
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https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/022224-feature-russia-defiant-two-years-into-war-reshaping-global-energy Nice infographic, for those interested: Interesting that in spite of its stated intent to remain neutral in the conflict (partly in gratitude to Russia for its past support), energy-hungry Vietnam is not a significant importer of Russian oil.
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https://www.scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The-War-in-Ukraine/091194 Some very approximate frontages, based on the current situation: Kharkiv-Belgorod frontier (E-W, disregard frontier north to Sumy): 230km Oskil-Zherebets rivers (N-S Kupiansk-Kreminna): 180km Sieversk salient: 70km Bakhmut-Avdiivka: 90km Avdiivka-Vuhledar: 50km Zaporizhzhne front (Vuhledar-Dnpr E-W): 180km Dnpr-Kherson river (E-W, less Kinburn spit): 300km Total active front: c.1100km
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Yeah, I was enjoying a beautiful clear night last summer on the Mediterranean coast of Spain, only to see a line of 5 satellites ascending, all in perfect line.
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Thanks as always for the digest and the threadreader link, for those of us who don't X. ...The Threadreader ads are just nuts though, supermarket tabloid 'Elvis alien clone' stuff. Or maybe that's just my part of the world.
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I agree. There's zero likelihood that NATO splashed an AWACS in Russian airspace, cuz WW3. You and I are much of the same mind, it seems as I composed this before I read your post.... The Russians don't necessarily *know* that their manifest destiny and grand strategy is built on a tissue of lies and self-delusion. 1. The Russians (and their overseas amen corner) have always preached that all the major Western weapons systems in AFU use (Patriot, HIMARS, etc.) are crewed by NATO mercenaries and technicians. 2. Same 'reasoning' at root: hohol pig farmers and Eurof**gy cosmopolitans can't possibly be cleverer or tougher than Great Russians. Like most bullies, whose behaviour is rooted in a need to prove their superiority (to suppress insecure feelings that they actually aren't), they deeply need to believe that. 3. By corollary, they also 'know' that once T shuts off the tap and recalls the mercs, 'so-called Ukraine' will collapse like a rotten log, the NATO-backed civil war will end and restore the Greater Russian Union State from Zhitomir to the Dnistr, with only Polish- and Hungarian-controlled rump provinces remaining as a buffer. ...So in short, all the US wingnut mouthing is putting the 'comfort' in 'aid and comfort to the enemy'.
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Thanks for the clarification, but you might consider thumbing down the ad hominem attacks a bit.
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@Grigb is one of the best contributors to this thread. Just sayin'. **** VERIFICATION REQUEST. Is it true Russia only has one more A50 AWACS? Or is this yet another Sushko disinfo special?