How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

OK Combat Mission players!  Show of hands... how many of you think it's a good idea to drive a couple of tanks around deep into enemy territory without any supporting infantry?  (looks around)  Nobody, right?  And yet...

Steve

"Well, my commander told me that Nazis had taken over the government and our fraternal brothers in the Russkiy Mir will greet us with flowers and..." 

<BOOM>

 

[panzermartin]

17 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I am not too worried about Turkey or Greece trying to do something stupid.  They just saw what happened to Russia's economy.  I don't think the world is in the mood for someone trying to pull a mini-Putin during this crisis.

Steve

Yes it's true. And If this war ends as a russian meltdown, Erdogan would probably become wiser and less rogue on his actions. 

[billbindc]

Been following the OSINT account that only counts verified Russian losses. Those look to be about 100 vehicles a day with about 40% being tanks/afv/ifv. My question: how long would you expect the Russian military to be able to sustain those losses and still operate (in)effectively?

[BeondTheGrave]

12 minutes ago, billbindc said:

This seems quite compelling to me: https://samf.substack.com/p/space-and-time?s=w&utm_medium=email

Great article, good summary of where things stand. Lawrence Freedman is certainly one of the greatest strategic historians out there right now, IMO. 

[Haiduk]

National anthem in damaged military unit

 

[Probus]

19 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

And more on the tires:

Even more... this was sent by a friend of mine who refurbishes BW trucks for export:

Are the Ukrainians spiking the tires?

[DesertFox]

18 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Been following the OSINT account that only counts verified Russian losses. Those look to be about 100 vehicles a day with about 40% being tanks/afv/ifv. My question: how long would you expect the Russian military to be able to sustain those losses and still operate (in)effectively?

Good question. Based on all those abandoned and destroyed vehicles/IVFs/tanks etc. and lack of territorial gains in the last 3 days, I´d say if they don´t manage to sent in a second wave by next week, they will be bled dry by the end of the week.

Edited March 6, 2022 by DesertFox

[Vacillator]

7 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

National anthem in damaged military unit

 

Very moving, love it (except for the circumstances and surrounding damage).

[Commanderski]

34 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Let´s hope it is genuine:

 

That Lt. Colonel was right when asked if he thinks they could go home again under the current regime when he said "I doubt it".  Putin would have all 3 of the shot or at the very least spend the rest of their lives in a Siberian gulag.

[Battlefront.com]

20 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Been following the OSINT account that only counts verified Russian losses. Those look to be about 100 vehicles a day with about 40% being tanks/afv/ifv. My question: how long would you expect the Russian military to be able to sustain those losses and still operate (in)effectively?

Not too long, that's for sure.

One of the bigger sub-questions from this is when the Russian VDV mech units will be combat ineffective.  The amount of VDV hardware that's been shown destroyed is staggering.  These are Russia's best forces and they use specialized vehicles that can't be grabbed from general reserves or other units.  Assuming that the soldiers themselves survive (and for sure they've suffered huge loses there) they will have to revert to light infantry or learn how to operate different vehicles (which is problematic).

What I'm getting to here is that the mechanized elements of the VDV might already have lost their operational capabilities.  We don't know the extent the broader plan relied on having those capabilities, but today I saw some evidence that they do.  A company sized VDV unit was eliminated near Mykolayiv today or yesterday.  It has the tactical markings normally seen on forces fighting in the Donbas up through north of Kiev, not the markings of forces based out of Crimea.  To me this indicates the highly mobile unit was shifted to help with the stalled out offensive towards Odessa.  If Russia loses the VDV mech units then it suffers a blow to its ability to shift combat power around based on need.

Steve

[MikeyD]

We may be approaching the bizarre prospect of a non-mechanized war in Ukraine, where the 'boots on the ground' are just that, boots on the ground advancing WWII style via miles long marches, hardly a motor vehicle in sight.

[danfrodo]

adding on to earlier posts:  There's lots of talk about other actors seeing Ukraine war and thinking they should make a move.  That's why it's so important to make sure everyone knows that actions like this will bring huge costs for their rather questionable gains, if any.  Already, even if the Russians finally take Kyiv & some territory, anyone w eyeballs will see it is a $100 spent for the purpose of gaining a penny.

So I am w Steve et al on this.  Ukraine war makes other actors much less likely to misbehave.  They are watching how desperate Putin is right now and that's w one of the most secure dictatorships on earth.  China is not launching amphibious attack on taiwan -- why would they, when they can just pound Taipei w cruise missiles until Taiwan makes concessions.  And Erdogan is not nearly as secure as Putin, especially give that elements of his military tried to overthrow him rather recently.

 

[womble]

1 minute ago, MikeyD said:

We may be approaching the bizarre prospect of a non-mechanized war in Ukraine, where the 'boots on the ground' are just that, boots on the ground advancing WWII style via miles long marches, hardly a motor vehicle in sight.

Like the Falklands! But a heck of a lot closer and more globally sensitive. And with a much larger civilian population to consider.

[Sequoia]

1 hour ago, BeondTheGrave said:

I see this carrier play as a warning to the Russians more than any other. In an afternoon the CV could shut down the straights if Russian warships decided to violate international law and run through them. 

Turkey doesn't need assistance to keep Russia from forcing the straits.

[Cobetco]

running the straits sounds like a good way to lose ships. so that would check out with Russia's current decisions.

[Battlefront.com]

21 minutes ago, Cobetco said:

running the straits sounds like an excellent and efficient way to lose ships. so that would check out with Russia's current decisions.

There, I fixed your post for you.  You're welcome

Steve

[Kraft]

16 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Been following the OSINT account that only counts verified Russian losses. Those look to be about 100 vehicles a day with about 40% being tanks/afv/ifv. My question: how long would you expect the Russian military to be able to sustain those losses and still operate (in)effectively?

Lets compare them very roughly with Germany. (source)

 Ger pre-Invasion budget 55bn USD < 62bn USD for Russia.

Out of 263 Ger tanks 43.7% or 115 are operational.

Out of 343 IFVs ~30% or 102 are operational.

Out of 220 APCs 60% or 132 are operational.

With slightly +12.7% more budget russia apparently has a fleet of 1200 (+456%) tanks operationable?

While also spending a lot more on Naval, a lot more on Airpower (~4000 vs 465 ger planes), and keeping ten thousands ot APCs / trucks up and running? I dont think so.

Even if we are generous and say Russia can maintain 4 times as many tanks (+ all their naval, air force,..) on slightly bigger budget that leaves them with 450ish, of which atleast 120 are already destroyed  

So give it another 4 weeks; 2 if they decide to drive them into Kyiv ?

 

Caveats: I assume the higher wages, pensions, healthcare and bureaucracy in Germany far outweight the cost to what is lost to corruption in Russia, so more money in russia goes directly to vehicles. Russian tanks are probably cheaper in maintenance and there are more spare parts available. On the other side, Germany lacks body armor, helmets, ammunition, and winter clothing, so it definitely wasnt just the vehicles getting starved for cash.

[akd]

Said to be aftermath of UKR ambush on Rus/LPR armor:

 

[MikeyD]

The middle of last week (this being Sunday) a posted quote from some expert was claiming the Russians had enough provisions in-theater to only last until... Sunday. Napoleon said an army marches on its belly. I wonder if we're going to start seeing the effects of privation on the battlefield. 

[dan/california]

The Russians are certainly excellent and efficient at trashing their own tanks and AFVs.

[Haiduk]

9 minutes ago, akd said:

Said to be aftermath of UKR ambush on Rus/LPR armor:

 

Some more photos from other location in Luhansk oblast, near Siverodonetsk - result of other ambush on LNR convoy.

One more photo contains shot out civil car with Z marking, but it also contains bodies of LNR fighters, so I will not post it. 

Edited March 6, 2022 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

The middle of last week (this being Sunday) a posted quote from some expert was claiming the Russians had enough provisions in-theater to only last until... Sunday. Napoleon said an army marches on its belly. I wonder if we're going to start seeing the effects of privation on the battlefield. 

I think we have been seeing it for days. The ABANDONED equipment everywhere being exhibit A. The number of really expensive aniti-aircraft systems alone is indicative of an army in total breakdown. It is one thing to get a one, or a platoon of those things stuck, and then have a company of infantry defend it to the death against a huge assault by Ukrainian partisans. It is quite another for a peasant to be able to walk up and set it on fire with a can of gas and his bleeping cigarette, Or tow it away as a trophy unopposed.

[The_Capt]

21 minutes ago, Kraft said:

Lets compare them very roughly with Germany. (source)

 Ger pre-Invasion budget 55bn USD < 62bn USD for Russia.

Out of 263 Ger tanks 43.7% or 115 are operational.

Out of 343 IFVs ~30% or 102 are operational.

Out of 220 APCs 60% or 132 are operational.

With slightly +12.7% more budget russia apparently has a fleet of 1200 (+456%) tanks operationable?

While also spending a lot more on Naval, a lot more on Airpower (~4000 vs 465 ger planes), and keeping ten thousands ot APCs / trucks up and running? I dont think so.

Even if we are generous and say Russia can maintain 4 times as many tanks (+ all their naval, air force,..) on slightly bigger budget that leaves them with 450ish, of which atleast 120 are already destroyed  

So give it another 4 weeks; 2 if they decide to drive them into Kyiv ?

 

Caveats: I assume the higher wages, pensions, healthcare and bureaucracy in Germany far outweight the cost to what is lost to corruption in Russia, so more money in russia goes directly to vehicles. Russian tanks are probably cheaper in maintenance and there are more spare parts available. On the other side, Germany lacks body armor, helmets, ammunition, and winter clothing, so it definitely wasnt just the vehicles getting starved for cash.

Careful with what "operational" means, it could simply mean "ready" in some sort of managed readiness system that most western countries use.  This does not mean the tanks "not operational" are sitting on the shop floor in pieces, it means the crews are in some stage of training.

Of course a 120 tanks lost, isn't that like 10 BTGs worth?

[dan/california]

And for the record Ukrainian peasants are the coolest people on earth..

 

[akd]

There are no “peasants” in Ukraine.