How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[OldSarge]

49 minutes ago, Cobetco said:

running the straits sounds like a good way to lose ships. so that would check out with Russia's current decisions.

One area of concern is that the Russians have brought two of their three Slava cruiser SAGs from their northern and Pacific fleets into the eastern Mediterranean. The third Slava group is in the Black sea. These ships have significant anit-ship and anti-air capabilities.

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/02/unusual-russian-navy-concentration-seen-in-eastern-mediterranean/

[The_Capt]

I think he meant to say "farm folk".

Edit: [damn got dislocated and forgot to quote - meant for two posts back]

Edited March 6, 2022 by The_Capt

[Battlefront.com]

OK, the end of the week has arrived and Putin is still in power.  So much for a quick coup.  Having said that, there are plenty of indications that Putin is paranoid that one is going to happen.  Not a lot so far, but we're not likely to see many.

Putting that aside, my prediction was based on the estimate that the Russian offensive would stall out towards the end of the week and not show much signs that it can recover.  That, in fact, happened.  The frontline has largely been unchanged for the last three days.  Most of the activity has been destroying civilian infrastructure and the people who live in it.

Ukraine continues to score major cumulative successes on the battlefield, destroying loads of equipment and causing lots of casualties.  There's been a couple of local counter attacks in the past couple of days, including one near Kharkiv that took three BTGs out of the fight.  True to predictions, the big scary column above Kiev is still not moving and is unlikely to for many days.  Attempts to push out from Kherson have made no progress and yet suffered significant losses.  Russia continues to pound Mariupol, but so far attempts to get into the city have not succeeded and have resulted in significant tactical losses.  Yet more aircraft were downed today.

For sure Russia is trying to salvage something out of this fiasco by maneuvering forces around to push into Kiev from the west and they seem to be having some success regaining some lost ground northeast of the city.  They are also likely going to try again to push out from Kherson towards Odessa and expand the Donbas front westward.

The question we should be asking, as are many experts right now, is if Russia has enough strength left to accomplish significant gains in the coming week or if it is offensively spent already.  I think it's a combination of both in that Russia still has the capability to expand their territorial gains a bit more, but that those gains won't amount to much.

And with that... some predictions.  I think for the next few days we'll see some fierce ground assaults by Russian forces, with a few localized gains.  There will also be a stepped up campaign of terror against civilians.  But by mid week even those efforts will run out of steam and then... well, that's a big question.

I don't think Russia has the resources to maintain fighting capacity in Ukraine for much longer.  Certainly I've seen nothing to indicate that Russia has the ability to suddenly reverse the situation.  The one thing they have shown great skill in is making the same mistakes over and over again while apparently expecting to see a different result.

Steve

 

[dan/california]

Its an expressio... I will start using farmer.

4 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Careful with what "operational" means, it could simply mean "ready" in some sort of managed readiness system that most western countries use.  This does not mean the tanks "not operational" are sitting on the shop floor in pieces, it means the crews are in some stage of training.

Of course a 120 tanks lost, isn't that like 10 BTGs worth?

Non the less the state of the Bundeswher is so bad that they should be paying everyone fighting in Ukraine the same wages, and combat pay, as a German soldier, in cash, for the next year. Least they can do to get stand by and watch as the Ukrainians break Putin's teeth, and Russia's military reputation.

[dan/california]

After a hundred and something episodes of Mike Duncan's history of the Russian Revolution the word peasant is burned into my brain.

 

[sburke]

23 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

The middle of last week (this being Sunday) a posted quote from some expert was claiming the Russians had enough provisions in-theater to only last until... Sunday. Napoleon said an army marches on its belly. I wonder if we're going to start seeing the effects of privation on the battlefield. 

yeah I think that was the bellingcat post.  I woke up this morning hoping like hell to see some mass surrenders happening.  yeah way too optimistic, but I still wanted it to be true.

[The_Capt]

13 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The question we should be asking, as are many experts right now, is if Russia has enough strength left to accomplish significant gains in the coming week or if it is offensively spent already.  I think it's a combination of both in that Russia still has the capability to expand their territorial gains a bit more, but that those gains won't amount to much.

Not sure what is going to happen but here are some things we should keep an eye out for:

- Partisan actions and open protests in Kherson.  How secure is one of the few cities Russia claims to control?

- Mass movements of Russian troops North from Kyiv, on foot.  If that convoy has run out of gas, it is a matter of time until the food and water runs out and then troops will vote with their feet.

- More broadly Russian's moving to consolidate or move to the defensive. This would include digging in and trying to hold onto ground they have in order to shape the negotiation table.  This may include moving to the defensive along some axis in order to double down on offense in others.

- Logistics.  Russian logistics have been a gawd awful mess so far, there will be signs if that shifts.  Either ammo will run out and we will see more crumbing in the Russian rear ech, or they will somehow get a grip on it and their tempo will pick up.  Based on the losses we have seen, they are running out of trucks so civilian patterns or other weird logistical method are something to watch out for.

- ISR and comms, frequency of UKR reports on open source start to drop off.  This would be a sign that the Russians finally got around to what they should have done on day 1 - gain information superiority.

-  Some sort of indications that Russia has managed to get its air force in the game beyond dropping bomb on civilians and getting shot out of the sky.

- at the strategic level, movement at the negotiation table and/or indications Putin is on the way out.  Cracks in the power holders or any strange signals in the political space.

I am sure there are more but based on what we have seen so far, these are on my list.

Edited March 6, 2022 by The_Capt

[dan/california]

Exhibit 97 of an army just melting away.

[dan/california]

I wonder if the Ukrainians are deep enough into Russian Radio systems to misdirect Russian artillery onto there own troops?

[MikeyD]

Given present circumstances, I don't know when you'll be able to see this in-game, but...

 

[dan/california]

Not desperate at all...

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

Given present circumstances, I don't know when you'll be able to see this in-game, but...

 

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but given the untimely death of Russia's military reputation you are going to have to start over. Either with the Chinese, or some version of Starship Troopers. 

[dan/california]

Outstanding model though!

[MikeyD]

The plan all along was to brutalize the urban population no matter how the war went. The Russians had collected a veritable rogue's gallery of 'hard boys' to insert into the cities, from Chechen gangs to mobsters to Russian riot police. I get the impression if they could contract with ISIS (who were largely Russian, BTW) to cause havoc they would.

[Fenris]

What's with many of the RU AFVs appearing to have the really narrow tracks?  Considering where they're from I would have thought wider tracks would be standard....?

[BornGinger]

3 hours ago, dan/california said:

Russian infantry just doesn't do their jobs.

During the Soviet Union, and a bit after that union had dispersed, employees often seemed to not care about doing a job that really had to be done because it was the duty of someone else. So the driver of a lorry for example maybe didn't help with the loading of the lorry or with emptying it because his duty was to drive the lorry and nothing else.

If this Soviet mentality still is in use among some people in the Russian Army it's possible that one or two officers were thinking "Those tanks would really need some infantry support. But as no one has told me to bother about protecting our tanks they'll just have to manage without that protection".

[sburke]

51 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I wonder if the Ukrainians are deep enough into Russian Radio systems to misdirect Russian artillery onto there own troops?

From what I have read the Russians are pretty much f'd on comms so I don't think it would take a whole lot.  Didn't somebody post something a while back on a UKR guy crashing in on Russian comms and getting into an insult match?

[sburke]

57 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

- Logistics.  Russian logistics have been a gawd awful mess so far, there will be signs if that shifts.  Either ammo will run out and we will see more crumbing in the Russian rear ech, or they will somehow get a grip on it and their tempo will pick up.  Based on the losses we have seen, they are running out of trucks so civilian patterns or other weird logistical method are something to watch out for.

lately I have been having visions of the French miracle in WW1 with the taxis.  Vastly over rated for the Battle of the Marne but still useful and a great memory for France.  Somehow I think the Russian version is gonna fall far short.

[dan/california]

44 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

The plan all along was to brutalize the urban population no matter how the war went. The Russians had collected a veritable rogue's gallery of 'hard boys' to insert into the cities, from Chechen gangs to mobsters to Russian riot police. I get the impression if they could contract with ISIS (who were largely Russian, BTW) to cause havoc they would.

And the Ukrainians knew this, and have fought like they knew it.

[akd]

When a tractor just won’t cut it:

 

Edited March 7, 2022 by akd

[dan/california]

https://www.greatpower.us/p/there-is-no-way-back-part-1?s=r

[sburke]

12 minutes ago, akd said:

When a tractor just won’t cut it:

 

This comment "At this point I would be expecting the Ukrainians to use a captured BREM-1 to tow this newly captured T-90" was gold.

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Not sure what is going to happen but here are some things we should keep an eye out for:

- Partisan actions and open protests in Kherson.  How secure is one of the few cities Russia claims to control?

- Mass movements of Russian troops North from Kyiv, on foot.  If that convoy has run out of gas, it is a matter of time until the food and water runs out and then troops will vote with their feet.

- More broadly Russian's moving to consolidate or move to the defensive. This would include digging in and trying to hold onto ground they have in order to shape the negotiation table.  This may include moving to the defensive along some axis in order to double down on offense in others.

- Logistics.  Russian logistics have been a gawd awful mess so far, there will be signs if that shifts.  Either ammo will run out and we will see more crumbing in the Russian rear ech, or they will somehow get a grip on it and their tempo will pick up.  Based on the losses we have seen, they are running out of trucks so civilian patterns or other weird logistical method are something to watch out for.

- ISR and comms, frequency of UKR reports on open source start to drop off.  This would be a sign that the Russians finally got around to what they should have done on day 1 - gain information superiority.

-  Some sort of indications that Russia has managed to get its air force in the game beyond dropping bomb on civilians and getting shot out of the sky.

- at the strategic level, movement at the negotiation table and/or indications Putin is on the way out.  Cracks in the power holders or any strange signals in the political space.

I am sure there are more but based on what we have seen so far, these are on my list.

Starting to see train flatbeds full of a random mix of civilian vehicles with “V” daubed on them heading West in Russia. Also, Israel clearly acting as some sort of go between.

[BeondTheGrave]

1 hour ago, akd said:

When a tractor just won’t cut it:

 

Wonder how much the US is going to pay for that bad boy.

"Hey remember all those fighters we are giving you?"

[danfrodo]

38 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Starting to see train flatbeds full of a random mix of civilian vehicles with “V” daubed on them heading West in Russia. Also, Israel clearly acting as some sort of go between.

definitely a lot of signs of desperation on russian side.  Civilian trucks being hauled in, maybe just grabbed from their russian owners by military?  that should anger the populace. 

Russian still has huge numbers it can bring in, but if they are truck-jacking their own people that's an  interesting sign.