How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Huba]

Rybar writes that RU was forced out of Studenok and Sosnove, and that UA has built multiple crossings through Oskil. Sounds like very good news. IMO if UA decided to push east, Lyman itself could easily be bypassed and surrounded, they drive from Oskil town to Zarichne. 

[The_MonkeyKing]

New APC type emerging in Ukraine. Patria Pasi XA series.

A good pick. Lots of them made and becoming available now that they are starting to be replaced. 

[akd]

5 hours ago, Taranis said:

"A resident of the city of Izium walks past a decommissioned and abandoned Russian tank, September 14, 2022. LEO CORREA / AP"
*T-72 (obr89?)

Probably T-72B obr. 1990g. Note the addition of the meteo sensor mast.

Edited September 15, 2022 by akd

[fireship4]

A link to the video of Prigozhin speaking to inmates that @FancyCat posted yesterday, with subtitles, via @wartranslated:

https://nitter.net/wartranslated/status/1570123353331011586#m

A relevant scene from Shtrafbat (autotranslate is all that's available):

Quote

 

EDIT: What Girkin thinks about it: https://nitter.net/wartranslated/status/1570374548914053121#m

Edited September 15, 2022 by fireship4

[benpark]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

Lyman itself could easily be bypassed and surrounded

Lyman does appear to be far less useful from a defensive standpoint going west to east. The Ukrainians used it as a force-limiting funnel (along with the forests) between the Oskil and the waterways near Terny to the east during the battles there a month ago.

There's no direct road route into the town of Lyman between those features, so it would be tough to supply for an extended defense. Given the state of Russian engineering, even worse.

I'm not sure what the Russians have jumbled up in that area as of the last few days, but it seems like yet another bad place to be with those Ukrainian crossing arrows moving across the river.

[riptides]

1 hour ago, womble said:

PMCs are basically mercenaries. Most mercenaries have a price. In treasure. The West is better placed to outbid Putin than vice-versa. Devolving the defense of the Realm onto the shoulders of Condottieri wasn't a sustainable approach for the Italian city states at the beginning othe Renaissance; it doesn't seem likely to be any more effective in the  C21st.

Seems like their definition of treasure was washing machines and toilets.

That tells the world something if only some bright individuals could take advantage of that.

 

Edited September 15, 2022 by riptides

[Huba]

1 minute ago, benpark said:

Lyman does appear to be far less useful from a defensive standpoint going west to east. The Ukrainians used it as a force-limiting funnel (along with the forests) between the Oskil and the waterways near Terny to the east during the battles there a month ago.

There's no direct road route into the town of Lyman between those features, so it would be tough to supply for an extended defense. Given the state of Russian engineering, even worse.

I'm not sure what the Russians have jumbled up in that area as of the last few days, but it seems like yet another bad place to be with those Ukrainian crossing arrows moving across the river.

If they left it a few days ago, UA would have open a direct road from Slavyansk north, and could then drive to Oskil bypassing all the forests. IMO LPR holding to Lyman was a saving grace for them. But as you say, now it's value seem to be much lower. If UA pushes from vicinity of Oskil no the north of Lyman, they will have to vacate it or be surrounded.

In other news:

 

[sburke]

The Russians Spent Months Forming A New Army Corps. It Lasted Days in Ukraine. (msn.com)

[DesertFox]

That´s some really low pass flying...

 

 

[Huba]

Elsewhere I also read about 200 GMLRS to go with the package. Very well!

 

[Der Zeitgeist]

11 minutes ago, Huba said:

Elsewhere I also read about 200 GMLRS to go with the package. Very well!

 

It's like I said several times already. Germany is scared of "Alleingänge". If you want weapons from them, increase the pressure until not delivering stuff becomes the "Alleingang".

[Artkin]

2 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

New APC type emerging in Ukraine. Patria Pasi XA series.

A good pick. Lots of them made and becoming available now that they are starting to be replaced. 

Love the warriors on twitter.

"OMG OPSEC! They can geolocate everything! Why did you post pictures of these vehicles underneath this instantly geolocatable barn underside roof!"

Blah blah blah twitter is a cesspool. 

 

I wonder how much lighter the 6x6 has to stay in order to be in service with the Finns. Surely it must have great offroad performance but is probably on the lighter side of things considering the terrain it was designed to operate in.

Edited September 15, 2022 by Artkin

[Bulletpoint]

"The founder of Russia's shadowy Wagner mercenary group has appeared in leaked footage attempting to recruit prisoners to fight in Ukraine.

He also informed prisoners of Wagner's rules banning alcohol, drugs and "sexual contacts with local women, flora, fauna, men - anything".

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62911618

 

[Huba]

1 minute ago, Bulletpoint said:

He also informed prisoners of Wagner's rules banning alcohol, drugs and "sexual contacts with local women, flora, fauna, men - anything".

Killing is the only allowed kind of fun I guess...

[womble]

1 hour ago, riptides said:

Seems like their definition of treasure was washing machines and toilets.

 

Those were mostly stolen by standard RUAF dogfaces (short and/or coerced contract "regulars"). Wagner contractors get paid regularly and highly enough to not need such mundane loot from the conflict zone (which is the point the putative arch-Nat is making about how PMCs can be more efficient than State troops).

ISTR that mercenary organisations are actually illegal under Russian law. Wagner is literally allowed to break the law, and granted impunity because Putin says so. Same will presumably apply to any PMCs raised under the auspices of other RUS institutions. Convenient for those in power to be able to simply (assuming they have the throw weight) act upon the law in the case of any PMC that does anything at all that they do not like.

[billbindc]

 

I  must confess to not knowing a thing about who @gummibear737 is but whoever they are, this is about as clear eyed a thread as it gets on how ruthlessly the US is going to benefit from the war in Ukraine. 

[Bulletpoint]

6 minutes ago, Huba said:

Killing is the only allowed kind of fun I guess...

Not sure why people keep saying the Russians are the bad guys in this war.

They are not even allowed to rape any part of the ecosystem

[The_MonkeyKing]

14 minutes ago, Artkin said:

Love the warriors on twitter.

"OMG OPSEC! They can geolocate everything! Why did you post pictures of these vehicles underneath this instantly geolocatable barn underside roof!"

Blah blah blah twitter is a cesspool. 

 

I wonder how much lighter the 6x6 has to stay in order to be in service with the Finns. Surely it must have great offroad performance but is probably on the lighter side of things considering the terrain it was designed to operate in.

Tactically it is not meant for any significant off-roading in Finland(only for bad roads). Battle taxi

[Huba]

2 minutes ago, billbindc said:

 

I  must confess to not knowing a thing about who @gummibear737 is but whoever they are, this is about as clear eyed a thread as it gets on how ruthlessly the US is going to benefit from the war in Ukraine. 

He got a bit carried away in few points:

- US sends a lot of cutting edge stuff too ( GMLRS, Javelins, M777)

- all that went in up to this point was donated. Lend lease deal should only be finalized that month (and hopefully will allow UA to get the good stuff like AFVs, F16 and ATACMS)

[BletchleyGeek]

3 hours ago, paxromana said:

You know the recently released 4th Edition of Twilight 2000 (Free League) had to assume that 1989 collapse of USSR never happened to make for a 'believable' AD 2000 war (assuming you understand that believable in this context means downright bat**** crazy!)?

Didn't check it out... yet! I heard there was a new edition on KS.

Of all the possible futures, why don't we get the one with flying cars, fusion power and warp drives? C'mon...

[Anxel Torrente]

30 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

... attempting to recruit prisoners to fight in Ukraine.

That is of course a very good way of making more room for new prisoners.

Quote

...the prisoners had stormed the Ukrainian trenches and attacked Kyiv's troops with knives. Three of the men - including a 52-year-old who spent more than 30 years in detention - were killed, Mr Prigozhin said.

Attacking trenches with knives sounds like a good way of showing ones loyalty to mother Russia. Reminds me of how it possibly was for the Soviet peasants which were forced to fight during WW2.

I wonder how many of those that will try to surrender to the Ukrainians as soon as possible so they turn out to be free from both the prison and the fighting after which they can remain in Ukraine as a free man if allowed to stay by the Ukrainians.

Edited September 15, 2022 by Anxel Torrente

[Grigb]

Old soviet officer and RU Nat Alksnis explains why RU Air Force did not stop UKR during the offensive. [adjusted for readability]

Quote

One of my schoolmates, despite his age, still has a direct relationship to aviation.

According to him, during a week of fighting in the Kharkiv direction, our aviation suffered serious losses in planes and helicopters. All of them were shot down by MANPADs of American and English production. The losses of assault aircraft and combat helicopters can be explained, since they are forced to work at low altitudes in the area affected by MANPADs. But after all, front-line Su-24M bombers and Su-34 fighter-bombers work at low altitudes.

You may ask, why don't they work from heights of more than five thousand meters, as in Syria, to which MANPADs do not reach? The fact is despite the victorious statements in the early days of SMO of our General Staff about the complete suppression of the air defense of Ukraine and the dominance of our aviation, in fact, the air defense was not suppressed and still acts quite effectively.

The Ukrainian S-300 and Buk complexes continue to control the airspace of Ukraine and that is why our front-line bomber aircraft cannot operate in the operational depth of the enemy's defense at a distance of 150-600 km from the front line. And long-range aircraft are used only for launching missiles from the waters of the Caspian and Black Seas. The situation will worsen when Western medium- and long-range anti-aircraft missile systems arrive in Ukraine, if they have not already arrived.

In our country, due to the lack of high-precision aviation weapons of destruction such as gliding bombs, our front-line aviation is forced to work in the enemy air defense zone of destruction. Unlike, for example, the Israeli Air Force, which effectively hit ground targets in Syria with gliding aerial bombs from a range of 100 km and do not incur losses. And the main question is - why hasn't Ukraine's air defense been suppressed yet? Don't We have anti-radar missiles? Why do only a few Ukrainian Mig-29 aircraft with American AGM-88 HARM anti-radar missiles create serious problems for our air defense, and dozens of our aircraft with our anti-radar missiles, for example X-31P, do not create similar problems for Ukraine's air defense?

Strange war, strange...

 

[billbindc]

19 minutes ago, Huba said:

He got a bit carried away in few points:

- US sends a lot of cutting edge stuff too ( GMLRS, Javelins, M777)

- all that went in up to this point was donated. Lend lease deal should only be finalized that month (and hopefully will allow UA to get the good stuff like AFVs, F16 and ATACMS)

I agree he goes a bit overboard at times but even the weapons that are given to Ukraine are typically later in their life cycle systems that were due to be replaced anyway. In other words, they were billions already spent that will now not cost anything to store, destroy, refurb. The bigger point is that even if you tone him down some, the benefits to the US strategic position are enormous relative to the costs.

[kraze]

40 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

He also informed prisoners of Wagner's rules banning alcohol, drugs and "sexual contacts with local women, flora, fauna, men - anything".

See? He is already trying to reform russian army

[The_Capt]

2 minutes ago, billbindc said:

 

I  must confess to not knowing a thing about who @gummibear737 is but whoever they are, this is about as clear eyed a thread as it gets on how ruthlessly the US is going to benefit from the war in Ukraine. 

Well it is optimistic assessment, we can say that.  Kinda sounds like a sales pitch to be honest.  When I hear "cost neutral" or "someone else will pay" I start looking for the magic beans.  There are some significant downsides to this whole thing and some serious risks - a fully fractured Russia is one that has been discussed here a lot.  

None of what is listed here is guaranteed:

- The EU may look to the US to foot a significant portion of the reconstruction bill.  Plus the US is going to want a piece of that anyway - infrastructure equals influence.

- LNG/Energy.  Ok, Europe could also accelerate away from LNG to either renewables or coal, likely both.  Weaning them off cheap Russian LNG does not automatically equate to "buying American" with its shipping cost overhead etc.

- NATO - definitely going to get some momentum, but that is likely going to be a drain as demand goes up and every nation tries to do it as cheaply as possible, leaving hidden expansion costs to, yep the US as usual.

- China.  Don't get me started.  They have been sitting back and reaping intel rewards and LLs this whole war, plus they are likely to get access to the all that Russian cheap LNG, from a strong negotiation position. As we polarize up, the vacuum created by the collapse of the Russian Arms industry is more likely to get picked up by China.

Seriously, does anyone in that club look like they are going to cozy up to US arms imports?  India is the swing state; however, this war has rattled them energy wise as well.  I am not sure where Indian-Western relationships are going to go after this war.  This has been a major disruption.

 https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/24/business/russia-oil-china-india-ukraine-war.html

https://www.fpri.org/article/2022/04/indian-foreign-policy-and-the-russian-ukrainian-war/

We can probably count on India continuing to backstop Russia as a minimum, they will just get everything cheaper from here on out.

I mean I get the thrust here - it is pushback against the political narrative of "Ukraine is costing too much and it is X's fault, etc etc".   Ukraine is going to cost everyone in the west, most definitely but that is not the issue.  The issue is that the cost of "not doing" was much higher than the "cost of doing" in this case.  The cost of not doing were a complete destabilization of the western rules based international order, which underpin a significant amount of US global power base.  In short the whole damn scheme falls apart if a revisionist power can employ conventional warfare to re-draw the map in freaking Europe.  That is way to complicated and nuanced for the average voter - in any country - so we have to go with these sorts of polarized assessments, I get that.  However, I am also very nervous around over-subscribing to narratives that do not account for the downsides and risk.