How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Huba]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Noted

Steve

Oh hell, let's play. I don't think it will fall apart at all, perhaps with exception of Chechnya. But I believe Putin will be dead by the end of 2023, one way on another.

Edit: to clarify, I'm sure it will fall into internal turmoil, next year at the latest, but no separate permanent entities will emerge out of it, it will reunify back into one state.

Edited September 14, 2022 by Huba

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Cederic said:

War. Ouch.

 

Yesh.  I even feel sorry for the guy, despite being a cog in a genocidal war machine.

Steve

[dan/california]

36 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

I'm sure you were only referring to Russian domestic opinion, but I want to note, nothing in Prigozhin's speech gives any indication to the creation of a modern, professional military needed to compete with Ukraine. Nothing about shooting deserters implies a ability to allow lower-command officers to operate on the frontlines with flexibility, nothing about this indicates a willingness for Russian soldiers to feel confident in their hierarchy. 

I think a important part of morale in the war against Ukraine, is the ability for relying on your command, your society to support you, nothing about this implies any willingness for the creation or reformation of the Russian military into a force that can compete with a Ukrainian military that understands their society is behind them, their command is behind them, that their comrades will be alongside them. 

Nothing in that speech will keep the Wagner units from breaking in a rout, nothing in that speech will let the units alongside and in front of the Wagner units remain confident in advancing, retreating, nada. Nothing about this speech will let other factions and units in the war in Ukraine give up their fiefdoms and power structures for a greater cause. 

It is important to recognize even in the time of the Soviet Union, that it was not just fear that drove the fight against the Axis, for example, Stalin and co conducted rapprochement with the church, Order 227 during WWII, was never fully implemented and dropped after the realization that it was not helping.

Prigozhhin will do nothing to fix the problems in the Russian military. 

 

 

This is a play to make himself  CZAR, period. It will end with a crown, or a sixth floor window. 

For the record I think Russian forces in Ukraine collapse by Thanksgiving, and the Putin falls by Christmas. Most of the Russian far east simply stops returning Moscow's calls by February. Advice worth what you paid for it...

[danfrodo]

2 minutes ago, dan/california said:

This is a play to make himself  CZAR, period. It will end with a crown, or a sixth floor window. 

For the record I think Russian forces in Ukraine collapse by Thanksgiving, and the Putin falls by Christmas. Most of the Russian far east simply stops returning Moscow's calls by February. Advice worth what you paid for it...

I would like to second the above prediction.

[Vanir Ausf B]

 

[Battlefront.com]

25 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Strictly speaking Wagnerite's approach will not make RU army as capable as western counterparts but it will undoubtedly make it better. Though I suspect the core issue though is Prigozhin desire to control Armed Forces.

What I see is a problem with scaling up.  I doubt very much that Prigozhin can take what works for Wagner and have the whole Russian Army reformed to do the same.  He'd have to have full authority to blow it up and start over again.  Right now, that authority rests with Zelensky

This is one of the things I've talked about with USMC guys.  They know that one of the things that makes them special is that they aren't burdened with all the heavy lifting the other branches (including the rest of the Navy) has to deal with.  In fact, this is one of the rationales for getting rid of their tanks.

A Marines friend once said to me something like if you want something moved you call the Air Force or the Navy.  If you want to invade a large country, call the Army.  If you want something broken into little pieces, call the Marines

Steve

[sburke]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

A Marines friend once said to me something like if you want something moved you call the Air Force or the Navy.  If you want to invade a large country, call the Army.  If you want something broken into little pieces, call the Marines

Steve

Pentagon to weed out extremists by banning Marine Corps (duffelblog.com)

[Centurian52]

On 9/13/2022 at 3:52 AM, Bulletpoint said:

Obsessed with good reason, I'd say. Western support is the biggest reason why Ukraine is winning.

Western support is a big reason why Ukraine is winning. But the biggest reason is probably Russian incompetence coupled with good Ukrainian strategic and operational decisions. The absence of western support likely would have resulting in Ukrainian defeat by now, but all the western support in the world wouldn't have helped if the Ukrainians didn't use it effectively.

edit: A phrase I'm becoming increasingly fond of is "necessary but not sufficient". Western weapons were likely necessary but not sufficient for Ukrainian victory. Russian incompetence was likely necessary but not sufficient for Ukrainian victory. And Ukrainian competence was likely necessary but not sufficient for Ukrainian victory. All three of those conditions together were likely required for victory. An absence of any one of those likely would have resulted in defeat.

Edited September 14, 2022 by Centurian52

[FancyCat]

Some interviews with soldiers, civilians, both Russians and those who fled from Ukraine in Belgorod. 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-russian-border-city-pro-kremlin-ukrainians-soldiers-regroup-after-retreat-from-ukraine-11663187679

 

[akd]

Looks like continuation of previously seen (from a different viewpoint) combat at pit mine in Bakmuts’ke (48.67652° N, 38.10503° E):

 

[The_Capt]

44 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Oh, I do NOT agree with that at all.  And yes I'm going to quibble about this because by this guy's definition, Germany's forces in June of 1944 withdrew to Poland, Hungary, and Romania.  Anybody think that sounds correct?

In rough terms an enemy leaves the battle because it withdraws, is routed, or collapsed. 

A withdrawal is the best as it implies an orderly movement away from the enemy.  You do not leave massive quantities of mobile assets behind.

The difference between a route and a collapse is more subtle, in my view, though they both amount to a disorderly retreat.  I think of routing as the main force is defeated and the rest is obligated to move without proper planning or perhaps even orders.  But the forces haven't disintegrated, though they likely leave behind a lot of stuff.  Collapse, on the other hand, is more akin to "every man for himself" sort of panicked withdrawal.  This is the type of action that leaves stuff behind on a massive scale.

Another way to think of it is with a withdrawal you should be able to stop, turn around, and offer meaningful resistance.  Routed units might take some hand holding and rebuilding, but they can fight again rather soon wit.  Collapse?  They are sitting in civilian cars at the border trying to go home.

Steve

It is even more inaccurate.  A withdrawal is an operation in itself.  It comes with a lot of sub-plans like deception and passage of lines.  Further is is characterized by ceding control of terrain at the time and place of your choosing.  It has things like covering forces, feints and even tactical offensives.  Then there is the whole joint force angle, so air cover plan - the RUAF should have surged to cover the “withdrawal”.  

The end of Gallipoli was a withdrawal - this was more akin to the French and British in 1940, an operational collapse.  No screens or covering forces and enough hardware left behind to equip another army.  Even Dunkirk had an outer perimeter and some air cover - Kharkiv did not even have that.  

So, no, “in strict military terms” this was not a withdrawal, it was at best a retreat; however, the loss of equipment and POWs suggest it was a rout. 

[sburke]

probably total BS or just a flat tire but daily mail reporting a possible hit on Putin.  Would really have blown Steve's demise of Russia pool.  

 

Putin’s limousine is ‘hit by loud bang’ in possible ‘attack’, Daily Mail reports | protothemanews.com

[Huba]

 

[kevinkin]

All is well and normal in Russia. Putin brushes of assassination attempt while conducting succession planning. What a multi-tasker he is. Daily mail headline from the post above.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11212515/Putins-limousine-hit-loud-bang-possible-attack.html

[Battlefront.com]

24 minutes ago, sburke said:

probably total BS or just a flat tire but daily mail reporting a possible hit on Putin.  Would really have blown Steve's demise of Russia pool.  

Still waiting for some more confirmation on what happened, but either way the pool is about the disintegration of Russia as we know it.  Taking out Putin doesn't guarantee anybody is going to win the bet

Steve

[acrashb]

23 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

RU Nat is a catchall for Russian who wake up, go about their business, and return to bed with nationalism foremost in their thoughts. 

Steve, thanks.  That was both comprehensive and colourful.

So when Grigb says "RU Nat forces around Lyman" I'll take that to mean elements of the RA that have volunteered, rather than been drafted, and are aligned with the RU Nat commentators we've been hearing from.  One assumes the elements can cluster by asking for transfers to parts of the RA aligned with their views.
 

Strikes me as an internal fifth column, and the most likely contender for post-Putin leadership.  Because they appear to be more organized than the opposition, and that is how you win.  See any number of states in turmoil - or see Lenin.

And on the Russia surviving pool:

As defined by Russia still having an ISO-3166 country code, I'm in the Russia will still be around in ten years camp.  I think it will be greatly diminished, a rump state; the CSTO will be gone or exist only on paper; current restive regions with physical distance from Moscow (leading to command and control issues - shipping and supporting troops to quell disturbances or goods and services to placate a populace and their power brokers becomes expense across distance) will be gone and China encroaching on the areas with ethnic Chinese (Han?) majorities.  I don't think it will devolve into warlord regions, there appear to be power structures in waiting to prevent that.

If you disagree and I'm wrong, look me up in ten years and I'll buy you a beer  or sumfink.

[MSBoxer]

14 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Taking out Putin doesn't guarantee anybody is going to win the bet

Steve

Dammit!  Now I need to make a call and tell Sergei to cancel the "reservation".  Probably no chance I can get a refund!  Thanks for nothing!

Edited September 14, 2022 by MSBoxer

[Elmar Bijlsma]

58 minutes ago, akd said:

Looks like continuation of previously seen (from a different viewpoint) combat at pit mine in Bakmuts’ke (48.67652° N, 38.10503° E):

 

I recall that clip. Sure looks the same.

 

In other news, Zelensky was lightly injured a little while ago. Russian assassins? Artillery strike near Izium? No, road accident. Now we await the Russians giving the other driver a medal. Or claiming credit.

 

 

Edited September 14, 2022 by Elmar Bijlsma
The "this post was edited" is racist towards sloppy typers.

[dan/california]

9 minutes ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

I recall that clip. sure looks the same.

 

In other news, Zelensky was lightly injured a little while ago. Russian assassins? Artillery strike near Izium? No, road accident. Now we await the Russians giving the other driver a medal. Or claiming credit.

I would hate to be the other driver, if there was one. Going from bleep you have had a fender bender, to oh my there are 7 automatic weapons and a grenade launcher pointed at you would not be fun.

Edited September 14, 2022 by dan/california

[chuckdyke]

He needs new gloves. Or made suitable for his social or trigger-finger.

Edited September 14, 2022 by chuckdyke

[Huba]

Follow up to yesterday's calls for talks with Ukraine at Solovyov's. Turns out this line of thinking is not acceptable and has to be condemned:

 

[sburke]

Kremlin is Protecting Putin By Admitting Russia's Defeats in Ukraine: ISW (msn.com)

 

Quote

"The Kremlin's acknowledgment of the defeat is part of an effort to mitigate and deflect criticism for such a devastating failure away from Russian President Vladimir Putin and onto the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and the uniformed military command," the ISW wrote.

 

[FancyCat]

The Inspector-General of the Bundeswehr, or the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff equivalent. 

 

 

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

The Inspector-General of the Bundeswehr, or the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff equivalent. 

 

 

Putin clearly got a wholesale deal when he bought the entire German officer Corps. 

[chuckdyke]

6 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Putin clearly got a wholesale deal when he bought the entire German officer Corps. 

MMmm I can read German and this is what he said. : At best, he sees “counterattacks that can be used to win back locations or individual sections of the front, but not to push back Russia on a broad front”. Even the approaching winter will “not reduce the suffering – on the contrary”. The Ukrainian army acts "wisely, rarely offers a broadside and conducts operations confidently and very flexibly".

Er sehe allenfalls „Gegenstöße, mit denen man Orte oder einzelne Frontabschnitte zurückgewinnen, aber nicht Russland auf breiter Front zurückdrängen kann“. Auch der herannahende Winter werde „das Leid nicht mindern – im Gegenteil“. Die ukrainische Armee agiere zwar „klug, bietet selten eine Breitseite und führt souverän und sehr beweglich die Operationen“.

 

 

Edited September 15, 2022 by chuckdyke