FancyCat

Something else to note, all accounts by foreigners serving or served in Ukraine, describe a conflict and warzone of unparalleled difficulty and scale outmatching certainly any conflicts the West has engaged in recently, with equality of arms being the most equal since Vietnam? Or more likely Korea? The experience in Ukraine has been attested to as very much different than the superiority enjoyed in the GWoT. Ukrainians are on the back foot, and I certainly can’t begrudge any person staring at the months long drought of U.S support with anything but dread at joining the defense. Which is why I’ve mentioned that political considerations are essential to success in the war, sure, Ukraine has littered Southeast Ukraine with the wrecks of Russian equipment but the overwhelming narrative favors Russia still, evidently the wrecks of Russian equipment aren’t defeating the headlines of “Russian advances” and while long term this may spell the defeat of Russia, the evident goal of Russia is to persuade the West to cut off aid in the short term, and for Ukraine to surrender, demoralized by lack of aid and enemy advances. This is why Ukraine needs wins now. And considerations of the now, of the near term are important for Ukraine to make it long term.

Let’s not overstate the foreign numbers, while certainly there are foreigners serving in the Ukrainian military, the vast majority of personnel are Ukrainian. Quick google search brought up 20k foreigners, with 200k total on the low side of personnel on the frontlines, that’s still just 10 percent of the soldiers defending Ukraine are foreigners. No need to be hyperbolic, end of the day it is Ukrainian blood spilled to defend Ukraine.

And yet the narrative in Russia and the West is that Russia is advancing, a slow grind, but one that one could argue will result in breakthrough and collapse of the Ukrainian army. Certainly reviewing Russian news, where they were touting the hold up of aid to Ukraine via the U.S until just now, is part of the narrative that it is signalling to its domestic and international audience that dividends will occur with this costly advance, that the West and Ukraine is close to giving up. It is essential that Ukraine and the West defeats this narrative, both to ensure that Western audiences and elites are not convinced of the futility of further aid, and to spur further cracks in Russia. Continued, loud, assertive Western support to Ukraine is essential, the kind vocalized by Macron recently. But just to emphasize, I'm not saying focus on the bridge solely, but it takes time for a Russian operational collapse, and we don't exactly know what Ukraine has in terms of ability to immediately make that happen. But a bridge that symbolizes Putin's regime and Russia's connection to Crimea is a good way of telling the Russian civilian the war is not going well. And certainly one that won't potentially backfire on Ukraine and the West like targeting economic targets like oil and gas before the American election. (I believe analysis is finding that targets are being struck that focus on domestic consumption and not exports that might more severely drive up prices) and certainly not of the civilian harming, war crime potential. (In fact the first bridge attack probably acts like a way of defusing potential war crime objections in that Ukraine has been able to explain itself and gained western acceptance via normalization) Again I'm not saying focus on the bridge. I'm just saying that I'm not going to be surprised if Ukraine sends a ATACMS against it.

Being one of those who has warned of long term conflict not being instantly favorable to Ukraine and the West, it's always important to remind myself that Russian perspective is focused on portraying futility in opposing Russia, aimed at western audiences and Ukraine itself. (At least that's what I think) Actions like these piecemeal attacks, mounting losses, a focus on offensive vs defensive, but in a way that is wasteful and at opposition to the conception of modern warfare, signals to me that Russia is hoping on diluting Ukrainian and Western will, trading its personnel and equipment on the hope that either Ukraine breaks or the West breaks. Is Russia that changed from 40 years ago in the Soviet-Afghan War that it can continue to blink with no emotion at its losses in Ukraine? Certainly it is entirely in Russian advantage that Russia is mindlessly sending its forces to death, that it's supply is endless, and its will concrete. But is it true? In my opinion, Ukraine needs to focus on stabilizing it's front, and conduct signalling to both the Russian public, and internationally, that Russian advances have halted and will not occur, and will be a high tally for every attempt. Currently, despite these high losses Russia has convinced its public, and onlookers that advancing will be worth it. Ukraine must shatter that image, same as it shattered the images of Russia pre-invasion.

As shown in the sinking? of the Sergei Kotov, which was guarding the straits and bridge, threatening Kerch brings out Russian forces to defend it. Not that I’m saying focus on the bridge is essential , but I won’t be surprised if the bridge is the site of further attacks.

So ATACAMS first target was the S-400 complex in Crimea. Guess that answers whether it can intercept it.

Hit and its been repaired, im assuming the scenario we are operating on is a hit to the bridge that renders it unrepairable. Drones hitting Moscow has increased internal dissent tho, including hitting gas and oil complexes. I think if we regard the current state of war support for Russia, it is quite high right now. Besides, Russian messaging focusing on preventing German supply of missiles does indicate worry about the loss of the bridge. It is a legitimating factor over Crimea and Ukraine.

Would disagree on the bridge as not a war winner, its a highly symbolic target, its destruction would seriously harm the image of the Russian state both domestically and internationally, proponents of Russia needing internal dissent to help conclude the war, the bridge's loss is essential for that internal dissent to increase, irregardless of whatever supply/military value.

Huh. props to Biden and co. on the secret. Let's get those Tartus moving now Scholz. https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/24/us-long-range-missiles-ukraine-00154110

Not sure if posted yet, but this Twitter thread by @RALee85 has tons of videos showing Russian aircraft flying without fear of Patriots or mid-range AA systems. We need more short and mid-range AA systems to Ukraine, goddamn it this is insane, minimal numbers of anything isn't enough, Russia is literally horde walking, slow horde walking but walking neithertheless over Ukraine, if we cannot adopt the needed mindsets to enable long term defense, how is anybody supposed to trust us against China or Russia? Arsenal of democracy? bull****.

Formed from volunteer units of the armed wing of the Right Sector, the 67th Mech. is being divided up. From one of the articles linked: Imo, if true, that the unit could not integrate and was doing such Russian Frontline mobik tactics, then absolutely replacing with Syrskyi was the right move. https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/04/14/7451183/ https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/04/16/7451501/ https://t.co/SGm9I4j1l0

This reactive policy to Ukraine by the West is actually past time to end. Pledges of munitions and equipment must no longer be reactive, like closing the barn door after it burned down. No more dallying on vehicles. Bradleys, M113s, M1s, strip everything possible from NATO, and send it to Ukraine. How can we expect the Ukrainian soldier to fight and win when we can’t even be bothered to send some more m113s? past time to equip it with long range missiles. The question we have now, should not be, “what does Ukraine need the most?” It should be, what can Ukraine use now and in the future, and start making it now and shipping it now. at this point, it’s clear Russia does not have will to negotiate, therefore, the prior reactive aid to Ukraine is now a failure, and only signaling to Russia that it can outlast the West.