Grigb

Yes and no. If it hits directly yes otherwise no - overal destruction effect from near misses of two let's say 500 kg bombs will be greater than from single 1000 kg bomb.

These photographs could be forgeries; the RU claim that these particular men have already been killed.

Anyway, According to their own experience in Aphanistan, a very large bomb is less effective than multiple smaller ones because the overall destruction area of the big bomb is smaller. Clowns.

The issue is that I see RU Nats are very confused. There isn't any sort of war frenzy per se yet (except from few total madmen like Medvedev).

According to a new rumour, Russia is looking for five guys from Ingushetia (a Russian republic close to Chechnya).

Interesting Quote

According to FSB 40 dead and 100 wounded.

The primary issue now is that, according to rumours, the attackers do not resemble Ukrainians but rather Chechens. Ru Nats are currently confused.

RU Nat says Shpeznaz started clearing operations 30 minutes ago, which is at least an hour late.

Yes. It is either you are ally or not. So, German gov will honor only what it labels defensive. RU Nats shells send dozens of drones to hit Gdansk from Kaliningrad. RU gov declares they have nothing to do with that. German gov declares it will not get involved in any offensive actions and Poland must swallow it. So, for Germany US is not truly ally. Good that we are all on the same page.

It seems you are not. This relies on the US readiness to reveal intelligence sources to NATO heads of states, like Orban. Otherwise, you will have to trust the US claim that it was a RU submarine. Imagine Trump says RU submarine torpedoed out boat, but I will not disclose how I know it. So, the ultimate decision rests with the heads of state. We have Orban, we have Scholtz and possibly few others (Austrian). Can NATO overcome their opinion?

Though Germany position is... well, Germany position, the overall EU situation is not that bad in the long term (it's bad in short term). I'm slowly summarizing RU Opposition economist Milov's recent report on the Russian economy. He stated that he recently visited the European Parliament and spoke to several EU MPs. There are both bad and good news: Bad news - EU is politically bickering around Ukraine assistance, also faster work (for example enforcing sanctions) is not possible due to democratic bureaucracy of EU parliament. And it is unlikely to improve in the short term. Good news - EU core politicians know the seriousness of war and about their bickering and slowness problem. They are committed to resolve it in the long term (long term means around year). He cited an example: he was privately told that the EU needs to recruit 50 professionals to successfully stop Russia from dodging sanctions. However, this requires passing money through EU democratic procedures, which is extremely lengthy owing to the politicking of MPs from various nations. But eventually, the EU will hire them and cut RU off. In a year.

So, if an unknown submarine (from RU) torpedoes US boat in Pacific Ocean will Germany gets involved or (given RU denial and US unwillingness to disclose intelligence sources publicly) just say it was probably China, so not our problem?

An attack on an ally is reason enough to get involved. What you're saying is that the German government values legal justifications over alliances. And it begs the question: what if the German government finds a legal justification not to respect Article 5?

My fault. it is 30+50+10+10. Instead of getting regular sleep, I'm reading and translating at night. So, mistakes happen.

Avdiivka is significantly bigger. And not the whole Avdiivka was bombed. All stories about Krynky is hell is nice to hear until they tell you that there are about 60-100 marines against: Regarding nonstop drone bombing - Magyar: Regarding gliding bombs, yes, recently RU decided that it is safe now to bomb Krynki as usual. Only recently - 10.02.24 Nobody says it is easy there. But when a few dozen defend ruins of village against two brigades that Putin watches...

Abrams got destroyed because UKR committed Abrams at Avdiivka direction to battle in recent days. NASAMS got destroyed as part of the intensification of RU campaign against that illusive Patriot. Caesar looks like Bohdana. Archer is a combination of two videos. First conveniently stops at range when EW usually disables the drone. Second video, well, is not clear. And initially only the first video was published in TG. Looks like somebody realised that it is not convincing enough and decided to "improve" it. They always dedicate significant effort to destroy foreign weapons. RU general admission western weapons superiority is a sure sign they caused RU tremendous pain that cannot be denied.

Yes, it is possible.

There is no political reason in Krynki. There was a huge political reason to defend Avdiivka. RU arty cannot shell it properly because they are afraid of UKR arty. They can't drone it since the majority of the drones sent are destroyed. They can't bomb it properly because VKS fears Patriot (they don't believe in S-200). As a result, they cannot containt it unless they apply consistent pressure to keep UKR on the defensive. As soon as they stop, the same thing (new bridgehead/bulge) will happen a few km closer to Crimea.

Interesting UKR comment under video of Taras Cmut. An unknown commenter claims that UKR drone with 1.5 kg of plastid can take out any current RU dugout in typical Platoon Strongpoint (if it flies inside - they use another drone to blow up door/protective net first). BTW, hiding in dugouts is the main way to survive on frontline right now.

Disagreements are normal. We will eventually get further information to resolve the matter.

No, I could not. It is UKR who is crawling forward there. Not RU. UKR do not charge into the line of fire in Krynki. They mostly do what they do in Avdiivka - defend it. And it is not a bad position to defend.

New UKR tactics

They are not charging forward. They crawl. This is their advance in 4 month and 16 thousand dead. Their wild charge after capturing Avdiivka is 3.5 km. They aren't charging anywhere. They crawl and push. It is not strategically relevant.

Well, if you mean RU, then yes, they come and go. Mostly to hell. The true face of RU war. I will not translate the article (yet), but auto-translation should suffice if you want to learn about the true horrors of the RU situation at Kherson direction.