How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[BeondTheGrave]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/03/06/russia-oil-ban/

"Calls for U.S. to ban Russian oil gain momentum despite inflation concerns" 

I dont want to upset BFC Elvis too much (so behave!) but its very telling to me that the big photo in that WaPo story is a picture of Joe Manchin, senator from a fracking state, call for banning Russian oil imports. 

https://www.speaker.gov/newsroom/3622

The US Speaker of the House is coming out in favor of a US oil ban. Suggests to me that if it came to a vote it would pass. This strikes me as a tad bit symbolic, last I read the US imported less than 10% of its oil supplies from Russia, and that oil was all 'superfluous' in the sense that other production could easily cover the slack. But I wonder what it means for Lukoil's long term position in the market. I also wonder if this is the first step in a western oil embargo, especially in the event things get more ugly in Ukraine. 

Edited March 7, 2022 by BeondTheGrave

[danfrodo]

The russian authorities seem to be leasing buses for the protestors, which maybe tells us something.  I've seen the buses in multiple videos w the courageous and possibly doomed shoved onto them. 

So will Putin kill thousands of his own people?  Send them to gulags?  keep them in prison? -- and where's he gonna get the prison space?  Maybe he'll contract w USA's private prison industry.

[Kinophile]

7 hours ago, dan/california said:

Russian infantry just doesn't do their jobs. And these guys seem very competent.

Except for the part where they returned to the same firing position for shot 2. The fact that they could, and not suffer the consequences speaks volumes for the utter failure of RUS armor/inf coordination and integration.

If I did that in CMBS, pffft, fuggeddaboutit.

[Vet 0369]

7 hours ago, sburke said:

Battlefront needs to allow us more upvotes.  Consider this an upvote.

Unfortunately, I have to say that some one actually reading the text in question surprises me. When I worked for the U.S. Government, I used to write rules and regulations that had to be published in the “Federal Register.” That meant they had to pass constitutional muster, ac conversely, we had to be pretty familiar with the U.S. Constitution. What stuns me is all the people who state, “this, that, and that other thing violates my constitutional rights!” The most surprising were the Politicians, media, and talking heads out of Hollywood. You’d think that before they opened their mouths, they’d actually READ the Constitution, and not just the Preamble. My 73-year old Sister is taking an online class on the Constitution (I guess our arguments regarding certain “rights” as actually being in text in the  Constitution, and some that actually aren’t, actually triggered her to want to understand it, and we both went through school when Civics were part of the curriculum. If you don’t know what Civics Classes were, you are probably younger than 60.

Any how everyone, make sure you’ve actually read the pertinent documents before making comments that can embarrass you.

 

[Vet 0369]

4 hours ago, akd said:

There are no “peasants” in Ukraine.

Let’s get away from the “Middle Ages” terminology. They are rural farmers, crafts people, mechanics, blacksmith, etc. calling ANYONE a peasant, implies lowest social stature, usually without the ability to better themselves, or even leave the land. Let’s can the Stereotypical comments about anyone.

[evilcommie]

3 hours ago, Fenris said:

What's with many of the RU AFVs appearing to have the really narrow tracks?  Considering where they're from I would have thought wider tracks would be standard....?

Design compromises. Many of those narrow tracked AFVs are BMD variants optimised for air mobile operations.  Probably had to fit in a back of an IL-76 and have reasonable internal volume. So make the hull as wide as possible and narrow the tracks.  Also, in order to reduce weight, make the hull out of aluminium. Notice how many burnt out BMD’s literally melted, unlike most BMP’s and BTR’s.  

[cyrano01]

56 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Except for the part where they returned to the same firing position for shot 2. The fact that they could, and not suffer the consequences speaks volumes for the utter failure of RUS armor/inf coordination and integration.

If I did that in CMBS, pffft, fuggeddaboutit.

This; when I saw the RPG gunner heading back to the same spot I was mentally shouting, 'noooo, he will  have rotated his turret, he will see you easily.'  CMBS would appear to be a harder teacher than the  Marshal Rodion Malinovsky Military Armored Forces Academy.

[Offshoot]

Drone footage of combat in Kherson near the Antonov Bridge

 

[Vet 0369]

2 hours ago, BeondTheGrave said:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/03/06/russia-oil-ban/

"Calls for U.S. to ban Russian oil gain momentum despite inflation concerns" 

I dont want to upset BFC Elvis too much (so behave!) but its very telling to me that the big photo in that WaPo story is a picture of Joe Manchin, senator from a fracking state, call for banning Russian oil imports. 

https://www.speaker.gov/newsroom/3622

The US Speaker of the House is coming out in favor of a US oil ban. Suggests to me that if it came to a vote it would pass. This strikes me as a tad bit symbolic, last I read the US imported less than 10% of its oil supplies from Russia, and that oil was all 'superfluous' in the sense that other production could easily cover the slack. But I wonder what it means for Lukoil's long term position in the market. I also wonder if this is the first step in a western oil embargo, especially in the event things get more ugly in Ukraine. 

I call BS on this one. Why would a Russian Woman “plead the fifth?” Does the Russian Constitution have a “fifth” that protects from Self-incrimination?

Maybe she’s trying to say she doesn’t know where she is because she drank a fifth?

[sburke]

3 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

I call BS on this one. Why would a Russian Woman “plead the fifth?” Does the Russian Constitution have a “fifth” that protects from Self-incrimination?

Maybe she’s trying to say she doesn’t know where she is because she drank a fifth?

lol yeah was wondering about that.   Dinner interrupted my plans to check if the 5th means anything at all in Russia.  This was the closest I got.  Plead The 5th Imperial Stout is a Stout - Russian Imperial style beer 

[Offshoot]

9 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

I call BS on this one. Why would a Russian Woman “plead the fifth?” Does the Russian Constitution have a “fifth” that protects from Self-incrimination?

Maybe she’s trying to say she doesn’t know where she is because she drank a fifth?

 

[Vet 0369]

39 minutes ago, evilcommie said:

Design compromises. Many of those narrow tracked AFVs are BMD variants optimised for air mobile operations.  Probably had to fit in a back of an IL-76 and have reasonable internal volume. So make the hull as wide as possible and narrow the tracks.  Also, in order to reduce weight, make the hull out of aluminium. Notice how many burnt out BMD’s literally melted, unlike most BMP’s and BTR’s.  

The U.S. developed an APC for Airborne and AirMobile infantry in the 1960s and 1970s that were made of aluminum to reduce weight. Too bad Russia copied the concept, at least too bad for them.

[Casual_Insanity]

59 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

Drone footage of combat in Kherson near the Antonov Bridge

 

Where are the Michael bay explosions?

 

Edited March 7, 2022 by Casual_Insanity

[sburke]

Anonymous Hackers Reportedly Take Over Multiple Russian TV Channels to Broadcast Messages Opposing Ukrainian Invasion (msn.com)

[dan/california]

https://www.polskieradio.pl/395

Polish news in english, a lot here. 

[LongLeftFlank]

6 hours ago, MikeyD said:

The plan all along was to brutalize the urban population no matter how the war went. The Russians had collected a veritable rogue's gallery of 'hard boys' to insert into the cities, from Chechen gangs to mobsters to Russian riot police. I get the impression if they could contract with ISIS (who were largely Russian, BTW) to cause havoc they would.

Zaleev agrees.  here's the unroll version sans images https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1500495309595725831.html

 

Edited March 7, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[theforger]

8 hours ago, Probus said:

Are the Ukrainians spiking the tires?

Trent is a great source for low level info

 

 

[Cobetco]

So Soviet era bus's are going to be an APC option in the black sea module right?

[Grey_Fox]

5 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Except for the part where they returned to the same firing position for shot 2. The fact that they could, and not suffer the consequences speaks volumes for the utter failure of RUS armor/inf coordination and integration.

If I did that in CMBS, pffft, fuggeddaboutit.

You're assuming there were Russians still in the area.

[kraze]

4 hours ago, cyrano01 said:

This; when I saw the RPG gunner heading back to the same spot I was mentally shouting, 'noooo, he will  have rotated his turret, he will see you easily.'  CMBS would appear to be a harder teacher than the  Marshal Rodion Malinovsky Military Armored Forces Academy.

CMBS is not simulating disorientation from the shock. When something explodes hitting your metal box - even without any penetration - the sound alone inside will be times louder than any flashbang thrown in.

May shock the crew so hard they may not even realize which side they were hit from and they may be too busy just coming back to their senses

Not to mention that if spalling happens (russian/soviet stuff isn't quite good at preventing that to put it lightly) - the tank crew may also be busier bleeding out than looking for an RPG guy. In CMBS they seem to disregard getting wounded - sure they get wounded from spalling but it doesn't seem to affect reaction times.

So CMBS may not entirely be realistic in this regard

Edited March 7, 2022 by kraze

[George MC]

Not sure if this been posted as yet. 

summary and analysis of current situation especially in the south. 

[Bulletpoint]

5 hours ago, Offshoot said:

Drone footage of combat in Kherson near the Antonov Bridge

 

It seems they added some generic war sound clip to this? Seems to be a short looping file.

[Monty's Mighty Moustache]

So the Russians are going to offer a ceasefire so civilians can be evacuated to...Russia? And they will be in control of the corridors? Do they honestly think that anyone outside of Russia believes a word they say?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60635927?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=6225c93fec502b53cd4810ec%26Details of Russia's proposed humanitarian corridors%262022-03-07T09%3A14%3A20.323Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:3d574e8e-24dc-438f-b469-a552c7cb32c1&pinned_post_asset_id=6225c93fec502b53cd4810ec&pinned_post_type=share

Text of the report on BBC News:

Quote

Details of Russia's proposed humanitarian corridors
We reported earlier that some of the new ceasefire corridors announced by Russia lead to Russia or Belarus.

Of the four cities mentioned, only the smaller ones - Mariupol and Sumy - have evacuation routes that lead to other parts of Ukraine.

The full list of routes was published by the Russian news agency Ria, citing a recently established body called the Interdepartmental Coordinating HQ for the Humanitarian Response in Ukraine.

The details are as follows:

Mariupol

Route 1 - Novoazovsk, Taganrog, Rostov-on Don (Russia), then by air, road or rail to a chosen destination or temporary holding place
Route 2 - Portivske, Mangush, Respublika, Rosivka, Bilmak, Polohi, Orekhiv, Zaporizhzhya (Ukraine)

Kharkiv

Nekhoteyevka, Belgorod (Russia) then by air, road or rail

Sumy

Route 1 - Sudzha, Belgorod then by any transport
Route 2 - Sumy, Golubivka, Romny, Lokhvitsya, Lubny, Poltava (Ukraine)

Kyiv

Hostomel, Rakivka, Sosnovka, Ivankiv, Orane, Chernobyl, Gden', Gomel (Belarus), then by air to Russia

The statement adds that Russian military will carry out "uninterrupted objective control of the evacuation, including with the use of drones".

A spokesperson for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has called the proposal "completely immoral", saying Russia was trying to "use people's suffering to create a television picture".

MMM

Edited March 7, 2022 by Monty's Mighty Moustache

[Monty's Mighty Moustache]

Oh and the Red Cross are saying the evacuation route from Mariopol was mined. Is anyone surprised?

 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60635927?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=6225c463980bea49f4b7b73c%26Evacuation route out of Mariupol was mined%2C Red Cross says%262022-03-07T08%3A47%3A05.732Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:db771701-6dc4-4ec6-80c5-bf4be97ab054&pinned_post_asset_id=6225c463980bea49f4b7b73c&pinned_post_type=share

MMM

[DesertFox]

18 minutes ago, Monty's Mighty Moustache said:

Oh and the Red Cross are saying the evacuation route from Mariopol was mined. Is anyone surprised?

Nope, not surprised. My bet is, once the civilians start to move they will be shelled by the russians as in Mariupol and north of Kyiv (Irpil).

 

 

Edited March 7, 2022 by DesertFox