How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[womble]

How practical is it likely to be for the UA to take some of the abandoned RUS rolling stock into service against its former owners? Do we think that the early focus of bombardment on bases and logistics assets will have made such efforts impossible given the pressure the UA has to be under right now?

[Holien]

Just now, akd said:

Would be interesting to know if there is a rural vs. urban bias amongst contract personnel in the army.

The interview was in a rural village wooden buildings straight out of WW2 titles I am surprised they didn't have a minder stop the report.

[The_Capt]

9 minutes ago, womble said:

How practical is it likely to be for the UA to take some of the abandoned RUS rolling stock into service against its former owners? Do we think that the early focus of bombardment on bases and logistics assets will have made such efforts impossible given the pressure the UA has to be under right now?

In the short term, pretty practical if you can get trained crews onto them (even hastily trained).  Long term harder as UA probably does not have spare parts or even ammo for some equipment.  But the information-win of a video of a captured piece of Russian hardware hitting Russian forces is pure gold. 

That "early bombardment" is another odd thing about this one because it was so short.  If you recall '91 and '03 and even EOF, we spent weeks pounding from the air in order to achieve full air supremacy and attrit key targets both strategic and operational.  Russian look like they spent about 6 hours last Thurs on the job and went "meh, good enough".  That is why internet, electricity and UA air assets are still in the game as far as I can tell. 

Edited February 28, 2022 by The_Capt

[Sgt Joch]

EU candidate status is just the first part. Turkey received candidate status in 1999...

Steve alluded to it, but a lot of work needs to be done. Ukraine's businesses generally cannot compete against EU businesses and the level of government corruption is still too high by EU standard to name just 2 problems. Despite having 8 years of pro-western govts, these problems have only been partially addressed. In its current state, full EU membership would mean a lot of UKR companies would go bankrupt and the EU having to pour Billions of Euros in to prop up the economy and Govt.

If Ukraine puts in the effort, you might see full membership in 5-10 years.

[womble]

4 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

n the short term, pretty practical if you can get trained crews onto them (even hastily trained).  Long term harder as UA probably does not have spare parts or even ammo for some equipment.  But the information-win of a video of a captured piece of Russian hardware hitting Russian forces is pure gold. 

I, without any actual experience of the matter, would think that there would be a fair degree of commonality between the equipment of the two sides, even identical equipment being used in some cases. But aye, they're going to struggle with the "best" (not for export) stuff, at least.

7 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

That "early bombardment" is another odd thing about this one because it was so short.  If you recall '91 and '03 and even EOF, we spent weeks pounding from the air in order to achieve full air supremacy and attrit key targets both strategic and operational.  Russian look like they spent about 6 hours last Thurs on the job and went "meh, good enough".  That is why internet, electricity and UA air assets are still in the game as far as I can tell. 

It's been suggested that the first-phase goals of the Russian attack were meant to be achieved with minimal damage to civilian infrastructure (hence internet and other basic utilities not being flatlined). And the minimalist (and potentially fatally incomplete) approach to suppression of AD and air force seems to me to be a good indicator that the Russians were

1. planning to be very swift about bringing the matter to a conclusion and/or
2. somewhat optimistic in their estimation of their effectiveness/Ukrainian resilience.

[DesertFox]

7 minutes ago, Sgt Joch said:

EU candidate status is just the first part. Turkey received candidate status in 1999...

Steve alluded to it, but a lot of work needs to be done. Ukraine's businesses generally cannot compete against EU businesses and the level of government corruption is still too high by EU standard to name just 2 problems. Despite having 8 years of pro-western govts, these problems have only been partially addressed. In its current state, full EU membership would mean a lot of UKR companies would go bankrupt and the EU having to pour Billions of Euros in to prop up the economy and Govt.

If Ukraine puts in the effort, you might see full membership in 5-10 years.

As I said. It is the political signal to grant them official applicant status which will be speedy. Full membership is, as you and Steve rightly said, another beast.

[Aragorn2002]

24 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

To be honest the Ukrainian government has almost certainly been ravaged. Akin to allied governments during WWII. If corruption is the focus, now (or post war) is the best time to change paths. I can see a lot of logic in starting fresh, as it were. 

This could be the rebirth for Europe too. Putin has united Europe more than ever and I think this could be the energy injection both EU and NATO needed. Hell, today practically all political parties in the Netherlands approved more sanctions, arms deliveries for Ukraine and an increase of the defence budget. Apart from some cheap right wing traitors, who are probably on the paylist of Moscow.

No easy times ahead, that's clear to anyone, but definitely something to fight and work for.

Edited February 28, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Baneman]

Then again, the EU might just decide to "fix the problems later" and fast track them in.
( in any event, the Russian goal of having Ukraine focused Eastwards in the Russian "orbit" rather than the EU's has spectacularly backfired )

We're well through the looking-glass now, anything's possible that was unthinkable a week ago.

[CHEqTRO]

More TB2 strikes have been released. One interesting one is the last clip were a fuel train is blowed up. The Ukranians sure are not going to make the supply situation any easier:

 

[akd]

As loudspeakers broadcast: “"Citizens, stay calm, everything is under control", a BMP-2 in occupied Bucha gets wolverined:

 

Edited February 28, 2022 by akd

[Armorgunner]

https://espreso.tv/do-1400-bulo-znishcheno-ponad-200-odinits-tekhniki-okupantiv-na-napryamkakh-trasi-irpin-zhitomir-arestovich

 

Is that true? @Haiduk 200 destroyed vehicles? @Battlefront.com

 

"At 14:00 more than 200 units of equipment were destroyed by the occupiers on the road Irpin-Zhytomyr, - Arestovich"

"Adviser to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Oleksiy Arestovych said that more than 200 units of enemy equipment were destroyed this morning on the Irpin-Zhytomyr highway
He wrote on his Facebook about the loss of the enemy on the route between Kyiv and Zhytomyr.

"My God, you would know how we sweep them in the morning near Kyiv. According to confirmed estimates, by 2 pm more than 200 units of various vehicles on the Irpin-Zhytomyr highway were destroyed and damaged," Arestovich said."

Edited February 28, 2022 by Armorgunner

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, akd said:

Would be interesting to know if there is a rural vs. urban bias amongst contract personnel in the army.

Yes.  Pretty much everywhere the rural population is decidedly more supportive of authoritarian leadership than urban areas.  Based on polling it is absolutely and definitively true in Russia.  So if the small villages start turning on Putin, he'll have no base of support amongst the people.  Further, they will either support or at least not interfere with a change in political power in Moscow.

Dusting off some memories of various studies, the rural areas of Russia have this odd disconnect where they focus their ire on political corruption and economic difficulties on their Oblast leaders.  Putin, on the other hand, keeps getting a free pass.  "I love Putin, but my governor is a corrupt pig" sort of thing.  And for whatever reason, they don't make the connection that that corrupt pig was personally appointed by Putin instead of sorta elections (this change happened in 2013).  So if they are unhappy with their governor, they should be unhappy with Putin and yet were not.

Steve

[DesertFox]

hmmm

 

 

[Sgt Joch]

2 minutes ago, Baneman said:

Then again, the EU might just decide to "fix the problems later" and fast track them in.

They could...but 6-12 months down the road the EU would have a major financial sinkhole which could be 3x to 5x worse than Greece ever was...

 

[Commanderski]

6 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

This could be the rebirth for Europe too. Putin has united Europe more than ever and I think this could be the energy injection both EU and NATO needed.

 I think you're right. Late last year and earlier this year it looked like it was about to break apart.

[DesertFox]

Just now, Sgt Joch said:

They could...but 6-12 months down the road the EU would have a major financial sinkhole which could be 3x to 5x worse than Greece ever was...

 

That´s not relevant for them. Whatever it takes...

[danfrodo]

5 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

More TB2 strikes have been released. One interesting one is the last clip were a fuel train is blowed up. The Ukranians sure are not going to make the supply situation any easier:

 

I wonder how much these logistical attacks, both from air & ground are helping?  We see anecdotal evidence, like above, and I hope it's helping to slow Russians down and hurt morale (like running low on food).  RUssian plan was clearly to bypass a lot of areas and so hopefully getting attacks on convoys that would require lots of those BMPs to play guard duty along increasingly lengthened lines.

[sburke]

36 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yup.  That is the primary reason.  The anti-corruption element is a big sticking point.  However, it's been unclear that Ukraine was ready to suffer the wrath of Russia by joining.  So maybe some of the lack of Ukraine's progress has been due to not really taking the option seriously.  Now?  Mr. Putin has made up their minds for them.  I predict that when this war is over that Ukraine will redouble its efforts to qualify for full EU membership.  Still going to be a tough one for them.

Steve

One other fallout of this is and the heightened patriotism/unity of the Ukrainians and the leverage that gives Zelensky is to potentially sort that out.  It now becomes a national security concern to fix that and the national will may have changed the equation.  One can hope.

Edited February 28, 2022 by sburke

[BeondTheGrave]

 

Bad Bad economic news. I think were reaching 'scram the reactor' stage on the meltdown. 7.0% inflation. Not good, not terrible. Wait 70%? ****. 

12 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

This could be the rebirth for Europe too. Putin has united Europe more than ever and I think this could be the energy injection both EU and NATO needed.

To be honest it could be a 1949 moment. It could also be a 1989 moment, depending on how things break. I think a lot of Europe's modern diplomatic issues were laid in the heady and exultant days at the end of the Cold War when the west decided that it had won the 'end of history' to steal a phrase. 

 

24 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

That "early bombardment" is another odd thing about this one because it was so short.  If you recall '91 and '03 and even EOF, we spent weeks pounding from the air in order to achieve full air supremacy and attrit key targets both strategic and operational.  Russian look like they spent about 6 hours last Thurs on the job and went "meh, good enough".  That is why internet, electricity and UA air assets are still in the game as far as I can tell. 

To be honest I think this is so important. They clearly wanted victory on the cheap, and deluded themselves into thinking that Ukraine would collapse when the tanks rolled in. I've read that Russia lacks PGMs, but then I see a million different cruise missiles hitting targets across Ukraine. I dont want to be a keyboard Patton (I'm going to do it anyway) but it makes no sense to me to hold back limited stocks of PGMs for the campaign when they're most needed at the outset to paralyze c3i, AD, and other single point targets. If you have a choice, I'd rather fight the first air battle like its 1991 and the rest like its 1971 then vice versa, because the modern precision style of warfare is so dependent on crippling targeted infrastructure. 

And to me the idea that its about saving infrastructure is short sighted (on the Russian part). Just rebuild it! If you blow the top off the power grid, sure it'll suck to have to pay to restore it, but thats kinda what you bargained for. 

I just genuinely dont understand whats going on. The more I apply rationality to the system the more irrational it appears. I mean its dangerous always to portray your enemy has constantly irrational or illogical, it breeds complacency and bakes in misunderstanding. Russians are just like us, Putin thinks rationally like everyone else. Hes just a man. But sometimes the things I see make that hard to believe. 

Edited February 28, 2022 by BeondTheGrave

[danfrodo]

3 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

hmmm

 

 

Insane courage!

[Aragorn2002]

6 minutes ago, Baneman said:

Then again, the EU might just decide to "fix the problems later" and fast track them in.
( in any event, the Russian goal of having Ukraine focused Eastwards in the Russian "orbit" rather than the EU's has spectacularly backfired )

We're well through the looking-glass now, anything's possible that was unthinkable a week ago.

But let's not forget the war has just begun and the heaviest fighting still lies ahead. We're in a roller coaster and nobody can predict what's going to happen. And the Ukrainians are fighting for their freedom and bleeding while we type on our keyboards and watch television.

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, DesertFox said:

hmmm

 

 

I don't want to critique brave souls like those in the video, but I'd have the thrower in the back seat and hit them coming from the opposite direction.  Less likely to get shot upon departure.

Steve

[danfrodo]

yes, that's the 'insane' part of insane courage.  And lighting a molotov in your car??  Yeah, insane courage.

[CHEqTRO]

7 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I wonder how much these logistical attacks, both from air & ground are helping?  We see anecdotal evidence, like above, and I hope it's helping to slow Russians down and hurt morale (like running low on food).  RUssian plan was clearly to bypass a lot of areas and so hopefully getting attacks on convoys that would require lots of those BMPs to play guard duty along increasingly lengthened lines.

Well, the reports of abandoned tanks, of stranded columns, and of Russians abandoning their vehicles keep on getting more numerous. So the general situation is definitively not great. It seems that the russians themselves botched the logistics of the operation. Still this attacks are definitively not helping.

Also, that the Ukranians are able of using drones to strike deep rear areas, shows that either their air defenses are plain bad, or that their employment is being incompetent (or maybe the TB2/their operators is just that good, who knows)

Edited February 28, 2022 by CHEqTRO

[Bulletpoint]

1 hour ago, keas66 said:

I am becoming  increasingly outraged at what I am seeing  .  Its making my blood boil in fact  . Hard to try and view this naked aggression by Russia with a neutral outlook .

I feel the same. And I know many Russians do, too. At least I have a friend in Moscow who told me so.

Putin seems determined to make every stereotype about Russian aggression and brutality a reality. However, troops on the ground seem to be more humble and even meek when confronted by Ukrainian civilians. Morale must be at an all-time low.