How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Huba]

36 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

I called this many moons ago. Cut the bridge when counter attacking into Kherson (not viable now) or south from Zaporoizhizha. Bombard any bridging attempts but leave one up. Isolate the garrison, with a narrow golden bridge.

The danger there is of a humanitarian disaster as the RUS forces will turn on the locals even more, human shield them and also will starve them. The locals a hostage in waiting, so Khersons population needs to be exfiltrated before any real move.

It would be really interesting to see how RUS will do in defence against a determined opponent. I also agree that Kherson sounds like the place to do it. Kherson bridges are really located out of town, especially the railroad one - leave that one intact, so once pressed Russians will have to decide - defend the city and become cut off, or retreat across the river.

Also, the Russian positions in Kherson rest on the Ingulec river on most of it's length - to attack there, Ukrainians will have to force a crossing and it's going to be quite interesting. The river is quite small though, in some places probably could be crossed with help of an AVLB.

Edit: and literaly 15 minutes after I mentioned it here:

 

Edited May 27, 2022 by Huba

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

 

 

There was information in our twitters 5 days ago, but without name of the place. Since no any other information - neither OSINT, nor RUMINT, nor official. The screen is from Russian LostArmor - they claim UKR BTG breakthrough in Davydiv Brod 

Edited May 27, 2022 by Haiduk

[Kinophile]

I disagree re attacking Kherson. Its got a central fall back axis, towards the river, and the RUS are working on a 3rd defense line. Even ****ty defenses take time and blood - and can easily bleed an attacker dry.

Ukraine can do better than throw its infantry on the waiting blades of long prepared (not Hasty) defenses. Thats Russia's specialty and they're welcome to it. I for one have no desire to see videos of Russian defenders heroically breaking yet another UKR attack on their bunkers. 

However UKR cracks the Kherson nut, I doubt itll be where and how Russia wants them to do it or is prepared for them to do it.

UKR operational theory has seemed to have a strong thread of indirect approaches and pre-shaping operations; they can attempt these because of their forces motivation, training and mindset, as well as their gear (light inf w/ nlaws and stugnas are a great flank protection force). 

Threatening Crimea, after dropping the Kherson bridge and making Sebastopol harbor unusable, suggests that Kherson forces would be drawn down to defend elsewhere. Drastically reducing that Kherson garrison is possibly the primary requirement for any UKR assault.

Edited May 27, 2022 by Kinophile

[Huba]

Just now, Haiduk said:

There was information in our twitters 5 days ago, but without name of the place. Since no any other information - neither OSINT, nor RUMINT, nor official. The screen is from Russian LostArmor - they claimed UKR BTG breakthrough in Davydiv Brod 

Thanks, it started circulating in my info-bubble an hour or so ago. It would be strange, it seems a bit early for operations like this to commence, unless there was some unique opportunity to seize. There is another info from the region about MiG-29 shooting down Su-35 a moment ago, coming from UA AF. No pictures yet, but quite a feat if true.

[Haiduk]

6 minutes ago, Huba said:

Thanks, it started circulating in my info-bubble an hour or so ago. It would be strange, it seems a bit early for operations like this to commence, unless there was some unique opportunity to seize. There is another info from the region about MiG-29 shooting down Su-35 a moment ago, coming from UA AF. No pictures yet, but quite a feat if true.

Russian TG Kherson.ru writes Russian aviation stopped breakthrough and destroyed all BTG, on LosArmor writes "looks like despite losses they captured the crossing and could hold positions", some our twitters are now writing there is nothing happened. All unclear

Edited May 27, 2022 by Haiduk

[LongLeftFlank]

8 hours ago, sburke said:

maybe a small part of the reason Russian use of drones doesn't appear as effective....

Russian Soldiers Looting in Ukraine May Also Be Stealing From Putin: Report (msn.com)

 

Russian soldiers have been looting not only Ukrainians but reportedly even their own army in at least one instance, according to an investigation by independent Russian media outlet Mediazona.

A report on the outlet's probe cited a specific case, on April 29, in which a suspected Russian officer was seen in recorded footage bringing a box containing what appeared to be an Orlan drone to a shipping checkpoint in the Russian town of Valuyki, a few miles from the Russia-Ukraine border. Russia has been using Orlan-10 drones in its war in Ukraine, Mediazona reported, indicating that the officer may have stolen the device from his own army.

Major Minderbinderski.....

 

[Hapless]

Another picture of the BMPTs (hopefully Reddit can manage just a picture):

Do we think that's a tactical clump or a photoshoot clump?

[Harmon Rabb]

New video of Ukrainian SU-25's in the air in eastern Ukraine.

[dan/california]

It concerns me that the Russian casualty numbers seem to have gone down even as they are trying very hard to advance in the salient. It implies they really have improved at something. The other possibility is that because the are advancing coherently the UKR just doesn't get as good a picture of there losses.

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Several days ago in Kyiv were burials of recon from 93rd brigade, he was in tank-hunter team, armed with Javelin, but Russian tank could spot it first... Javelin is good stuff, but it requires enough many time to lock on target, theese seconds can cost a life.. 

The Javelin really needs a remote tripod. If they have to get fancy, a walking remote tripod that could go the ten feet by itself.

[sburke]

Russian Official Demands Putin End War, Gets Escorted Out of Meeting (msn.com)

[sburke]

Man Russia really does suck at this sort of stuff.

Putin Accused of Staging Meetings With Public As People Reappear in Photos (msn.com)

[riptides]

13 minutes ago, sburke said:

Man Russia really does suck at this sort of stuff.

Putin Accused of Staging Meetings With Public As People Reappear in Photos (msn.com)

No they don't suck. They just cannot react very fast. If they have time and clear, concise information to work with, they are a lot better at producing material.

 

[sburke]

7 minutes ago, riptides said:

No they don't suck. They just cannot react very fast. If they have time and clear, concise information to work with, they are a lot better at producing material.

 

these were all planned events.  They aren't 'reacting".  Putin's entourage apparently doesn't get social media or they just don't care.

[LongLeftFlank]

Good thread here on 'why' the T62....

 

[Malaspina]

7 hours ago, Canada Guy said:

1 - I am shocked that Italy has done so little compared to its GDP. If they have supplied items, it has either been very little or completely off the radar. There can't be that many pro-Putinites or I will have to scratch it off my bucket list

 

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Italy has had one of the worst Putin problems with its political leadership of probably any nation in Europe.  Italy's far right and far left parties hold enormous power in Italian politics and both are are in Putin's pocket.  If you have the stomach for it, you can read this article:

https://www.politico.eu/article/italy-russia-love-affair-no-end/

Steve

That's a pretty good all-round summary.

I.e. there's definitely a pretty varied group of pro-Putinites among the political elites in Italy, who are are posing as pacifists for their electorate but are probably secretly pro-Russia as they fear financial support (always denied) would probably suffer (or their personal interests) if they opposed the war actively.

But I don't think there are many among the population at large supporting the Russian invasion in this country on moral grounds. Maybe there's a small cluster on the far left who are nostalgic of a strong (Communist) Russia. Don't forget that the Italian Communist party had 40% of the votes in this country in the '70s. Maybe 2% now.

Russofiles, yes. Maybe a few on cultural grounds and a lot more due to economic / business ties. The tourist industry is perhaps the 3rd or 4th largest in Italy. There are many restaurants / hotels / supply chain operators that are crying out loud for the government to do something because they will have to cancel orders for large amounts of champagne this year. I've seen Russian-speaking customers regularly pay €2000 in cash for a meal. They were good business for many a sad restaurateur...

 

 

 

[Cederic]

1 hour ago, Hapless said:

Another picture of the BMPTs (hopefully Reddit can manage just a picture):

Do we think that's a tactical clump or a photoshoot clump?

I would call that a target.

[LongLeftFlank]

Good map of the action around Bakhmut. Quality mapmakers are starting to take more care with their Big Red Arrows of Doom.

 

Edited May 27, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Holien]

The fruit of war in Ukraine 

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-deadly-fruit-shells-rockets/31871324.html

https://gdb.rferl.org/0a630000-0aff-0242-abe3-08da3fc2ea44_w866_r0_s_d2.jpeg

Edited May 27, 2022 by Holien

[LongLeftFlank]

Yup, that's a CM tree all right....

And yeah, Newsweak again, but, interesting info....

https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-russias-air-war-ukraine-total-failure-new-data-show-1709388

Of the 20,000 or so sorties that the Russian air force has flown so far in the Ukraine war, fewer than 3,000 have entered Ukrainian airspace, almost all of them over the battlefield.  Russia flew fewer and fewer bombing aircraft beyond its own army's front lines, just over 10 percent of the total number of sorties flown, according to U.S. intelligence numbers.

Long-range strikes on so-called "strategic targets" continued, but they were undertaken by a combination of air, sea, and ground-launched missiles. 

Over 32 years, some 2,300 Tomahawks have been used in combat... in 85 days of strikes 2,275 missiles have been successfully launched [by Russia].... Iskander missiles (630 of them) have been launched from the ground in Belarus and Russia.... A dozen Kinzhal hypersonic aero-ballistic missiles have been fired.

"Right now, we're holding Russian missile success at just below 40 percent," the DIA official says....  two to three out of every ten missiles fired fail to launch or fizzle during its flight. Two more have technical problems such as not fusing properly even if they fly to their intended range. Two to three more miss their aim-points even when they reach their intended target.

Ukraine says that it has shot down 110 Russian cruise missiles, almost 10 percent of those that make it into Ukrainian airspace.

"And then there's the question of what they [the Russians] are hitting, and what their intentions are even when they do succeed," the DIA official adds. "For a couple of days it's airfields and air defenses. Then the emphasis shifts to ammunition depots, then oil, then factories, then the transportation grid. In each case, we are not seeing effective attacks and we are seeing little if any follow-on strikes." 

****

Hey, while I'm citing Newsweak, let's go all Popular Mechanix too!

 

 

Edited May 27, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[fireship4]

Good overview of Russia's war goals by John Ridge via Trent Telenko:

https://nitter.net/John_A_Ridge/status/1529262545521020928#m

EDIT: Also, a nice thread on MLRS by ThinkDefence, also via Mr. Telenko:

https://nitter.net/thinkdefence/status/1374770387632988162#m

Edited May 27, 2022 by fireship4

[Combatintman]

On 5/25/2022 at 1:50 PM, Taranis said:

Yes, Operation Greif.

I take this opportunity to remind those who do not know that it is possible to create this in the CM editor. Just indicate blue vs blue, buy the disguised troops then put back blue vs red. This allows to have Germans accompanied by soldiers in US uniforms, jeeps, halftracks etc. This is valid for Final Blitzkrieg but also on Black Sea (for future scenarios )

 

On 5/25/2022 at 2:01 PM, Ts4EVER said:

There is a scenario already that does it.

Yep - one of mine, Probing Around Poteau (or something like that).

[panzermartin]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Good thread here on 'why' the T62....

 

Probably survivability of T 62 doesn't really make a world of difference to more modern tanks like T 72, when faced against javelins and modern AT weapons. Those can kill everything. So why not field an older tank for secondary support. It's better than a BMP in terms of protection and has a big gun. They only seem focused to gather as many gun barrels as possible to saturate infantry positions.

It's questionable at least though in what condition these tanks are. It will be bizarre to see them on the front line again. 

 

 

[LongLeftFlank]

1. another view on T62. I actually just like the Operation CTRL-Z meme... 

 

2. Bunching up kills, part 2! (in this case, nearly....)

 

Edited May 27, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[FancyCat]

 

 

[danfrodo]

8 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

 

Would the Kyiv offensive occur before or after they conquer Finland and Poland?  Seems only slightly less insane than the other offensives the kremlin has been threatening.