How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[akd]

Article says France sent 6 Caesars, and modified them in less than a month to integrate with Ukrainian C3:

http://www.opex360.com/2022/05/28/le-delegue-general-pour-larmement-donne-des-precisions-sur-les-caesar-cedes-a-lukraine/

[dan/california]

14 minutes ago, akd said:

Article says France sent 6 Caesars, and modified them in less than a month to integrate with Ukrainian C3:

http://www.opex360.com/2022/05/28/le-delegue-general-pour-larmement-donne-des-precisions-sur-les-caesar-cedes-a-lukraine/

That is fantastic, now send SIXTY more!

Push around Kherson looks to be real. Trying to stop this is almost certainly how that Su-35 got lost a day or three ago.

[Kinophile]

https://www.mil.gov.ua/en/news/2022/05/28/three-types-of-155-mm-artillery-are-already-working-successfully-on-the-front-lines-m777-fh70-howitzers-and-caesar-sphs-–-oleksii-reznikov/

Quote

the same time, we must understand: in the last month and a half, for instance, we have received more NATO-standard artillery shells than there are Soviet shells available!

A Good metric to hit.

[Kinophile]

2 minutes ago, dan/california said:

That is fantastic, now send SIXTY more!

Push around Kherson looks to be real. Trying to stop this is almost certainly how that Su-35 got lost a day or three ago.

Could be More of a localized offensive specific to opposing forces, ie UKR. Identifies a weak point, pushes enough to tactically improve that part of the line.

Also, IIRC that section is well beyond the Russian Kherson defenses proper.

[Taranis]

40 minutes ago, akd said:

Article says France sent 6 Caesars, and modified them in less than a month to integrate with Ukrainian C3:

http://www.opex360.com/2022/05/28/le-delegue-general-pour-larmement-donne-des-precisions-sur-les-caesar-cedes-a-lukraine/

Yes, the communication and information sharing is made by the PR4G (crypted radio). That was what I was refering on a previous post when I noticed that there was modification with the radio. There is multiple radios on the vehicle and the one in charge of the information sharing is in the cabin while and in connection with the one in the rear (but this last one is only for communication, also why I said it was not necessary). It seems totally coherent to me to have changed the radio system because the PR4G must be very different from the Ukrainian system (perhaps there is also a notion of security in order to prevent them from falling into the hands of the Russians)

[SeinfeldRules]

6 minutes ago, Taranis said:

Yes, the communication and information sharing is made by the PR4G (crypted radio). That was what I was refering on a previous post when I noticed that there was modification with the radio. There is multiple radios on the vehicle and the one in charge of the information sharing is in the cabin while and in connection with the one in the rear (but this last one is only for communication, also why I said it was not necessary). It seems totally coherent to me to have changed the radio system because the PR4G must be very different from the Ukrainian system (perhaps there is also a notion of security in order to prevent them from falling into the hands of the Russians)

Professional curiosity here, does the howitzer calculate its own firing data? Or does an FDC have to provide data and the crew punches it in to the howitzer. Or can it receive the data over a digital connection and lay automatically. I’m assuming it’s self laying and all the crew does is load and fire. 

[akd]

Translated report by TDF Col. on misuse of TDF units:

https://radiolemberg.com/ua-articles/ua-allarticles/ukraine-s-territorial-defense-forces-at-war-lessons-learned

 

Situation of L/DPR mobilized reserve units on the frontline:

 

[dan/california]

 

 

Allow me to state again for the record that "Combat Mission,  Battery Commander" is a game I would pre order instantly.

Edited May 28, 2022 by dan/california
spelling

[dan/california]

This was supposed to be in the post above....

[Machor]

20 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

I've just returned from Budapest and I can assure you most Hungarians hate Putin and the Russians. Most fear the economical consequences for their country. In the West we don't always realize how much countries like Hungary suffered under the Soviet yoke and how much poverty there still is in their country.

 

18 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Agreed, but let's not forget Hungary has only been in contact with democracy since a couple of decades. They are bound to make mistakes. Same for the other so-called Visegrad countries. That's one important reason why Eastern Europe musn't be allowed to become dominant in the EU.

Thank you for the insight. Since you were in Budapest, I suspect the attitudes toward Orbán and the war in Ukraine may vary along the Metropolitan / Provincial divide, replacing the Urban / Rural divide in classical Sociology. Without taking the thread further OT, I think of the Metropolitan / Provincial divide as a conflict between those who have to gain by integration into the 'world-system' - and thus oppose authoritarian isolation - and those who oppose integration as it peripheralizes them, and thus benefit from authoritarian isolation; the Metropolitan / Provincial divide accounts for Erdoğan's power base like Cinderella's shoe, and seems to be a good fit for the major political divisions in the US and Canada as well.

@LongLeftFlank

[Machor]

9 hours ago, dan/california said:

It made more sense before Javelins, I am seeing a severe morale problem when the base's T-62 mascot enters the Ukrainian turret toss olympic qualifier.

The starting point for this was whether it was better to field a 2nd/3rd rate MBT in lieu of an IFV, so the ATGM threat doesn't leave the IFV looking better. Taken more broadly - beyond the Javelin - though, there is a point to be made about ATGM proliferation, and I thought Steve CMBS foresaw this problem and therefore predicted the adoption of APS. I am puzzled by why the APS predictions for 2017 are still not a reality in 2022.

[dan/california]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-28

The short version-The Russians are overpaying for Severodonetsk, by a lot. 

[Vet 0369]

On 5/26/2022 at 2:06 PM, Huba said:

Seriously though, the totted number sounds completely unrealistic, it has to be some ploy by US and Poland to get the weapons to Ukraine, I don't see any other explanation.

Standard negotiating tactic. I used to do it even when I was in the USMC and I was ordering supplies. If you need 200 units of supplies, request 400 and settle for 300.

[dan/california]

 

[danfrodo]

18 minutes ago, dan/california said:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-28

The short version-The Russians are overpaying for Severodonetsk, by a lot. 

And can extrapolate that overpayment by this whole insane war for Russia.  The only person who gains anything is Putin by getting enough victory to survive, literally.  The other 140M russians are all losing more every day.

[dan/california]

This is better news. 

[dan/california]

 

[Battlefront.com]

Another example of Russia refusing to learn from its past mistakes:

 

[dan/california]

 

[dan/california]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Another example of Russia refusing to learn from its past mistakes:

 

Also a case study in why they need HIMARS. Two trucks worth of guided rockets and most of that base is scrap metal. I do give them points for shooting at the fuel trucks first.

[Taranis]

10 hours ago, SeinfeldRules said:

Professional curiosity here, does the howitzer calculate its own firing data? Or does an FDC have to provide data and the crew punches it in to the howitzer. Or can it receive the data over a digital connection and lay automatically. I’m assuming it’s self laying and all the crew does is load and fire. 

You're right. All the data is automatically transmitted to the gun and it is also able to calculate its firing elements itself. Each gun knows its exact position (few meters precision of course, like any GPS etc) and the orientation of its gun in real time thanks to the inertial navigation system (SIGMA-30N). These elements are available to the platoon/battery command by teletransmission (PR4G). Conversely, the command sends the fire elements directly to the vehicle via teletransmission. The crew then only has to press a button for the gun to aim on its own, all that remains is to load the gun.

In normal mode, the firing elements are calculated by the CS = Commandement Section = Platoon Command (a french platoon = between 2 and 4 guns) and teletransmits them to each gun. However, the CAESAR benefits from a CALP (CALculateur de Pièce = Gun calculator) which allows an isolated crew to calculate the firing elements themselves. I trained on it but never had to use it in live fire. It is therefore an interesting but unusual possibility, requiring a good knowledge of the vehicle and the principles of artillery but which remains quite easily feasible (especially for a platoon or battery commander ).

Note concerning the position of the gun, a synchronization of the inertial navigation was quite often carried out on geographical points with clearly known GPS positions. We then placed the vehicle marker on the point and then synchronized. This is not really necessary because the SIGMA30N is very reliable but it brings more reliability and confidence for the precision.

[Taranis]

2 hours ago, dan/california said:

 

"At Pivdenny Buh direction Russian army attempting to repel Ukrainian offensive near Kostromka, reinforcing positions, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report"
https://t.me/lumsrc/1603

[LongLeftFlank]

7 hours ago, dan/california said:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-28

The short version-The Russians are overpaying for Severodonetsk, by a lot. 

1.  DefMon drills nicely into this very topic in this thread...

....

Nice forensics here.

2. The ginger gnome there is Russian video tweeter WarGonzo

As noted by others, the Russians seem to have committed nearly all their elite units into this bridgehead, a la Wacht am Rein 1944.

Edited May 29, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Huba]

Time to combat-prove some of our gear:

Edited May 29, 2022 by Huba

[Bulletpoint]

14 hours ago, akd said:

Translated report by TDF Col. on misuse of TDF units:

https://radiolemberg.com/ua-articles/ua-allarticles/ukraine-s-territorial-defense-forces-at-war-lessons-learned

 

Situation of L/DPR mobilized reserve units on the frontline:

 

Kind of interesting that it's basically the story of the brave outgunned Ukrainians, but flipped around so instead it's the brave, outgunned Russians..