How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Harmon Rabb]

I have a sudden craving for chips after seeing this photo.

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, Harmon Rabb said:

I have a sudden craving for chips after seeing this photo.

I could not be more in favor of just shipping the Ukrainians every GMLRS rocket and launcher in Europe. But since people are not doing that fast enough how hard would it be to design/adapt some sort semi smart fuse to the rockets they are launching? a CEP of 200 to a CEP of twenty is a big deal. Of course they may be running out of these, and then we are back to ship them ALL the GMLRS.

[The_MonkeyKing]

15 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Probably survivability of T 62 doesn't really make a world of difference to more modern tanks like T 72, when faced against javelins and modern AT weapons. Those can kill everything. So why not field an older tank for secondary support. It's better than a BMP in terms of protection and has a big gun. They only seem focused to gather as many gun barrels as possible to saturate infantry positions.

It's questionable at least though in what condition these tanks are. It will be bizarre to see them on the front line again. 

Well, I must add, T72 is a wide term. There are variants that are close enough to equal western kit. Like T-72B3 Obr. 2016. Or the top of the line Polish prototype modernization kits for the PT-91. 

Fortunately most of that kit is now gone.

The winner now between Russian T-62 and T-72 now depends on the upgrade package and maintenance level. I am sure there are situations T-62>T-72 but still T-72B3 Obr. 2016 >>infinite>> T-62anyvariant

[Harmon Rabb]

Reportedly another Ka-52 was shot down by a MANPAD.

Couldn't see what type of helicopter it was in the video because of distance and video quality.

Edited May 27, 2022 by Harmon Rabb

[sross112]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

1. another view on T62. I actually just like the Operation CTRL-Z meme... 

 

2. Bunching up kills, part 2! (in this case, nearly....)

 

I'd just like to say thank you to Long Left Flank for sifting through a lot of different sites and feeds and bringing good stuff to this conversation every day. Your time and effort is very much appreciated sir, please keep up the contributions!!

[sross112]

53 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I could not be more in favor of just shipping the Ukrainians every GMLRS rocket and launcher in Europe. But since people are not doing that fast enough how hard would it be to design/adapt some sort semi smart fuse to the rockets they are launching? a CEP of 200 to a CEP of twenty is a big deal. Of course they may be running out of these, and then we are back to ship them ALL the GMLRS.

In line with your thoughts, how about facilitating or actually producing munitions for existing systems like Vilkha:

Vilkha M MLRS design and features

Vilkha M system is based on the Soviet-era BM-30 Smerch heavy MLRS. Each system is manned by a crew of four and is capable of firing missiles in single or salvo modes.

 

The launch mass of each 300mm Vilkha missile is 800kg. The MLRS is capable of destroying the enemy targets located at a distance of 130km.

The system can fire 12 missiles in 45 seconds and engage the targets with a circular error probability (CEP) of less than 30m.

Ukraine apparently developed this improved version for the Smerch a couple years ago and it is produced by the company Luch in Ukraine. How possible is it to produce these in other countries and ship them in or give them everything they need to increase production/mass produce these themselves?

Probably a stupid question but I was wondering about is re-barreling existing platforms. Artillery barrels wear out (I think way earlier in the thread one of our learned artillerists advised about 1750 rounds per barrel) and the facilities and technicians have to be in place to change out barrels as part of maintenance. How difficult or would it be impossible to switch the UA existing SP arty from 152 to 155 as they wear out barrels? 

[SeinfeldRules]

I mean the T-62 was considered terrible when they were expected to fight large scale, high tempo tank battles against NATO forces. In Ukraine, I don’t think any tank out there could be considered survivable against modern ATGMs and we aren’t exactly seeing tank on tank gunfights. If you’re going to throw a tank into an village to support infantry, it might as well be something you can afford to lose. The Stuart light tank wasn’t exactly survivable compared to even a Sherman but they still had their place. Something like an IFV would be preferred but if you’ve got a ton of T-62s you might as well use (lose) them. 

Edited May 27, 2022 by SeinfeldRules

[The_Capt]

14 hours ago, fireship4 said:

This was a few pages ago but I think you mean 'taking the piss':

To my intended subject, for a change of pace, a funny video has emerged from Ukraine via OSINTTechnical.  How many times can a hat be blown off one man's head by outgoing artillery... let's watch shall we?

https://nitter.net/Osinttechnical/status/1529952654570422273#m

 

Ah I see the confusion.  I was employing the Canadian version of the term which is different from the somewhat male genitalia obsession of the UK/England/British culture [aside: how many names does one little wart of an island need as it tries to desperately hold onto its former tattered glory?]

It all goes back to a Governor Generals dinner in fall of 1878.  The GG at the time, appointed by Queen Victoria, was one Frederick Hamilton-Temple-Blackwood (seriously, I am not making it up: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frederick_Hamilton-Temple-Blackwood,_1st_Marquess_of_Dufferin_and_Ava).  Our first Prime Minister, Sir John A MacDonald, was a bit of a rogue and not a fan of the continued British oversight of a now independent nation.  A the dinner both men stepped outside for cigars and brandy:

"Lovely evening isn't Mr Prime Minister, I have always loved your Ottawa in the fall."

"Ay, Your Governorship the pretty colors of the trees reflect our burning desire to have greater independence from England and chart our own destiny."

*Cough*  "I am sorry, I don't understand...or perhaps I misheard?"

"Nah, I was only taking a piss Mr GG, the Canadian sense of humor and all..."

"Oh, I think you mean you were "taking the piss", you see it is a term that has to with a full bladder and the male phallus.  You see..."

"No sir, I mean taking a piss...on your shoes!!  AHAHHAHAHA!"

"Oh dear."

And the particularly Canadian idiom stuck to this day...

Edited May 27, 2022 by The_Capt

[Rokossovski]

On 5/25/2022 at 11:36 AM, danfrodo said:

ah, was a Spanish Instalaza that did it.

Caught the BMP by surprise.

No one expects the Spanish Instalaza.

[Vacillator]

33 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

one little wart of an island

How dare you sir?  Or are you also 'taking the piss'?  Which is not the same as 'taking a piss'.

Sidenote 1: it's nice that we can piss on this forum without big brother's censorship.

Sidenote 2: It's not matter of multiple names - we are the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.  England is but a part.

Edited May 27, 2022 by Vacillator

[fireship4]

25 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

the Canadian version of the term

You learn something new every day.  Two things today in fact, the second being that Sir MacDonald was no poet: 'The pretty colors of the trees reflect our burning desire...', Sheesh.

As to your earlier imputation - if you have visited our grey land, you will understand why we went abroad.  And if during your stay you heard a lot of words referring to genetalia then I would suggest it was more down to your presence than any obsession of ours.

[The_Capt]

11 minutes ago, fireship4 said:

You learn something new every day.  Two things today in fact, the second being that Sir MacDonald was no poet: 'The pretty colors of the trees reflect our burning desire...', Sheesh.

As to your earlier imputation - if you have visited our grey land, you will understand why we went abroad.  And if during your stay you heard a lot of words referring to genetalia then I would suggest it was more down to your presence than any obsession of ours.

Well I can forgive your ignorance then as you clearly have never been to our great nation in the Fall months...its on our flag.  As to Sir John, well he was born a Scot, so that one is on your Emerald Isle.

As to the obsession with "junk" well I can only go with what I have been exposed to:

Add to this hanging with a bunch of British Army goons in a pub and you can see how I might have a somewhat skewed view of what I am sure are your fine cultural perspectives on male reproductive organs.

Edited May 27, 2022 by The_Capt

[Haiduk]

Russian TG channel FighterBomber initially rejected any jet losses today and wrote "all Su-35 at home", but a hour later has written about "fu...g bad day" and some vessel was lost. Other source wrote as if the two-seater jet made sharp maneuver on extreme low altitude, launched flares and hit the ground. Nobody have seen any launches at it. Troopers of Russian 56th air-assault regiment could take the body of one pilot, where the body of second - unknown.

From our sources, Russian jet was shot down near Stepne village, Kherson oblast - this in 26 km SE from Davydiv Brid, where according to rumors our troops crossed Inhulets river and could advance toward Beryslav town. I have read the twitter of Kherson citizen, which wrote he called to own familiars from theese places, but they can't say anything about this breakthrough, but he wrote maybe really Russian aviation stopped our advance, but where now our troops - still near Davydiv Brod or retreated on western bank, he doesn't know. 

Other news:

- locals from Kherson reported about powerful detonartion in Chornobaivka area and work of Russian AD. Some sources claimed two ammunition storages were hit

- Tochka-U missile hit town administration building in Svatove town, Luhansk oblast, occupied in first days of war. Somebody writes this was Ukrainain missile, somebody this was Russian provocation, so still unclear. 

 

[Haiduk]

ATVs for Stugna-P crews of 93rd mech.brigade

According to TO&E battery of Stugna-P is a part of brigade's AT-battalion. Transport for Stugna-P by pre-war tables was either a truck or MTLB, or armored pick-up Novator. Before a war 93rd brigade was a single in Ground Forces, who use ATVs for theese purposes (also theese vehicles has AT-unit of 1st operative brigade of National Guard). The experience of war showed ATVs or civil pick-ups are best for AT-crews mobility

Geon Strike 1000 ATV with mounted Stugna-P launcher and Argo 8x8 amphibious ATV of 93rd tank hunters.

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

2. Bunching up kills, part 2! (in this case, nearly....)

 

I'm trying to figure out why a overtly pro-Russian would post this video.  Typical drone footage jump cut from a different angle and zoom/height means we have no way of knowing if the target is still even in the general area.  Second, whatever munition was used it didn't hit the house.  Even if the whole Ukrainan platoon was in the house they might have only slightly injured one or two from flying glass.  Given the opportunity for mass casualties, that's not a good consolation prize.

Steve

[sburke]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Well I can forgive your ignorance then as you clearly have never been to our great nation in the Fall months...its on our flag.  As to Sir John, well he was born a Scot, so that one is on your Emerald Isle.

As to the obsession with "junk" well I can only go with what I have been exposed to:

Add to this hanging with a bunch of British Army goons in a pub and you can see how I might have a somewhat skewed view of what I am sure are your fine cultural perspectives on male reproductive organs.

1.  The Emerald Isle is Ireland.

2.  The Scots would likely be a bit unamused at being lumped in with Brits.  United Kingdom.. maybe okay but not Brits.

3. Monty python is always welcome

4. Was this intended? "As to the obsession with "junk" well I can only go with what I have been exposed to" as I am sure exposing oneself violates forum policy.

[Vacillator]

I fear we have moved away from topic in recent posts (mine included). Oh well...

[Battlefront.com]

Well, at least the Ukrainians know it's not just them.  Russian soldiers will steal from anybody, including themselves.  This Russian officer is sending an Orlan-10 home:

 

[sburke]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Well, at least the Ukrainians know it's not just them.  Russian soldiers will steal from anybody, including themselves.  This Russian officer is sending an Orlan-10 home:

 

keep up steve, that was 3 pages ago. (though we didn't have the pic then)

[Battlefront.com]

Longer video of the Foreign Legion strike on the BTR.  Looks like it got hit a second time before getting off into the woods and suffering some sort of explosion.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/uytr4k/the_btr_hit_by_the_foreign_legion_with_anti_tank/

 

[Bulletpoint]

My contact in Moscow told me that this joke has been doing the rounds:

 

We are at war with NATO.

Oh, how is the war going?

So far, we lost 10,000 soldiers, 1000 tanks, and 100 planes.

How much did NATO lose?

They haven't arrived yet.

 

Edited May 27, 2022 by Bulletpoint

[Machor]

6 hours ago, panzermartin said:

why not field an older tank for secondary support. It's better than a BMP in terms of protection and has a big gun.

In the 2000s, I served in a foot company that had been assigned a single M48A2, complete with the original 90mm gun. The base we were defending had been overrun by the PKK in the 80s, when it was held by only a platoon, and the entire platoon beheaded, so me and many other conscripts were full of fear when we arrived there. When I started pulling guard duty along the base perimeter, I realized the M48 was the cornerstone of our defense: It was in an elevated overwatch position with an LOF over most of the base perimeter and beyond RPG range. It was great to have the 'Cadillac', as the M48 was affectionately called, covering our back.

Conceivably, the M48 could have been swapped for an AIFV, and I assume the AIFV's 25mm autocannon is deadlier for AP work than the 90mm, but I cannot imagine the AIFV acting as the same kind of morale booster. For the conscripts - excepting smart alecks like me - the M48 was a 'tank'; they didn't quite understand what the AIFV was, but they knew it wasn't a 'tank'. 'We have a tank' went a long way for morale. [That should be a W40K rule.] Therefore, fielding the T-62 with conscript formations, as Haiduk wrote, makes perfect sense.

 

[Machor]

WaPo interview with Ukrainian TD commanders who abandoned their posts in Toshkivka in Donbas:

"Ukrainian volunteer fighters in the east feel abandoned"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/05/26/ukraine-frontline-russia-military-severodonetsk/

"Stuck in their trenches, the Ukrainian volunteers lived off a potato per day as Russian forces pounded them with artillery and Grad rockets on a key eastern front line. Outnumbered, untrained and clutching only light weapons, the men prayed for the barrage to end — and for their own tanks to stop targeting the Russians.

“They [Russians] already know where we are, and when the Ukrainian tank shoots from our side it gives away our position,” said Serhi Lapko, their company commander, recalling the recent battle. “And they start firing back with everything — Grads, mortars.

“And you just pray to survive.”"

"after three months of war, this company of 120 men is down to 54 because of deaths, injuries and desertions."

"“When we were coming here, we were told that we were going to be in the third line on defense,” Lapko said. “Instead, we came to the zero line, the front line. We didn’t know where we were going.”"

"It’s a miracle the Russians haven’t pushed through their defensive line in Toshkivka, Khrus said as Lapko nodded. Besides their rifles and hand grenades, the only weapons they were given were a handful of rocket-propelled grenades to counter the well-equipped Russian forces. And no one showed Lapko’s men how to use the RPGs.

“We had no proper training,” Lapko said.

“It’s around four RPGs for 15 men,” Khrus said, shaking his head."

"The war has taken a heavy toll on his company — as well as on other Ukrainian forces in the area. Two of his men were killed, among 20 fatalities in the battalion as a whole, and “many are wounded and in recovery now,” he said.

Then there are those who are traumatized and have not returned.

“Many got shell shock. I don’t know how to count them,” Lapko said.

The casualties here are largely kept secret to protect morale among troops and the general public.

“On Ukrainian TV we see that there are no losses,” Lapko said. “There’s no truth.”

Most deaths, he added, were because injured soldiers were not evacuated quickly enough, often waiting as long as 12 hours for transport to a military hospital in Lysychansk, 15 miles away. Sometimes, the men have to carry an injured soldier on a stretcher as far as two miles on foot to find a vehicle, Lapko said. Two vehicles assigned to his company never arrived, he said, and are being used instead by people at military headquarters."

Edited May 28, 2022 by Machor
Made title bold.

[Machor]

Vehicles post:

BTR-D "Valkyrie' with shark-mouth - goes on 1/35 bucket list:

Another one for the 1/35 bucket list - BMP-T with shark logo [centre]:

Ukrainian technical:

Ukrainian Humvees:

 

[Machor]

Events post:

Russian forces are learning - dropping hand grenades from commercial drones like the Ukrainians:

Russian flag raised in Melitopol and Berdyansk:

The wreck of the An-225 Mriya is towed away:

Azov fighter misses rendezvous with Death: