How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, Rice said:

It's great that he's enjoying himself in this thread, but it leaves the greater community, that aren't regularly posting here, asking why everything has to be halted.

Er, who said everything is halted?  I know I've never said that.  I'm sure Elvis didn't either.  Nor did any of our testers who are hard at work testing and whatever else it is that they do when they aren't testing.

Just because you see no info on releases doesn't mean we're not working on them.  By that logic CMFI doesn't exist because we never mentioned it until the day it was released.

The only thing that is halted is the CMBS Module.  That's been put aside because there's no point in working on it when we don't have any idea when the timing will be right for release.

Steve

[Rice]

 

Just now, Battlefront.com said:

Just because you see no info on releases doesn't mean we're not working on them. (...) The only thing that is halted is the CMBS Module.

I initially mentioned this in my post on the 1000th page as well, but the reason I, and a significant amount of the community outside of this thread assumed so, is mostly due to none of the other listed release dates being upheld. For example, and most notably at the moment, Battle For Normandy, which was suppose to come a good few months ago on Steam. I've said my piece, and I've made my points clear, so I'll let everyone go back to talking about the war. I hope you consider my words as advice from a concerned observer and not as a malicious actor. All in all I hope the best for you and CM, and I happy when something does come our way.

[Huba]

Allright, all this talking about games made my purchase CMBS, I'm installing it as I write this post. Having this out of the way..

Putin literally just said Russia is at war. Escalation, here we come:

 

Edited July 8, 2022 by Huba

[Artkin]

1 hour ago, Bearstronaut said:

When you enlist in the US military you sign up for 8 years. If you enlist for an active duty contract of 5 years then you still owe three years to Uncle Sam in either the regular Reserves or the Inactive Ready Reserve. The regular Reserves you do the whole “one weekend a month, two weeks a year” thing. IRR you don’t have to do a thing but the military can call you back if the crap hits the fan. After you complete the 8 year obligation I’m not sure they can legally force you back in the military. However, retirees can be called back to active duty.

thank you, this is it. So it's 8 years regardless

[Boo Radley]

On 7/7/2022 at 9:30 AM, The_Capt said:

1000 pages and 1M views, well safe to say that this thread has expunged the shame of the Peng Thread being the largest and mostest longest on the forum.  This is now the Forum Thread of Legend...we well all be able to tell our grandchildren that we were here, and they will all think we are lying about it - which is the exact opposite situation with aforementioned Peng Thread.

Pfffft! I wave my hand at your thread. WE actually BROKE the forums with the MBT (Long May it Wave).

We were GIANTS among lesser mortals!

 

And don't you forget it, Sparky!

[Bannon]

22 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Er, who said everything is halted?  I know I've never said that.  I'm sure Elvis didn't either.  Nor did any of our testers who are hard at work testing and whatever else it is that they do when they aren't testing.

Just because you see no info on releases doesn't mean we're not working on them.  By that logic CMFI doesn't exist because we never mentioned it until the day it was released.

The only thing that is halted is the CMBS Module.  That's been put aside because there's no point in working on it when we don't have any idea when the timing will be right for release.

Steve

I know data are still coming in and analysis is ongoing but how might CMBS change given all we are learning? For example, will every scenario come with a boatload of drones? Please understand I am not asking for insights into the CMBS modules Battlefront is working on.

[acrashb]

10 minutes ago, Boo Radley said:

Pfffft! I wave my hand at your thread.

Leakage, time to run

[Aragorn2002]

2 hours ago, Taranis said:

"President Zelensky visited frontline in Dniropetrovsk region"

 

"Moscow elected official Alexei Gorinov was sentenced on July 8, 2022 to seven years in prison for denouncing the Russian assault on Ukraine. KIRILL KUDRYAVTSEV / AFP"

Alexeï Gorinov had appeared at this last audience, in his glass cage, brandishing a sign: “Do you still need this war? The police positioned themselves to hide it, and people who had come to support the politician were evacuated from the room. When the verdict was announced, his wife, in tears, asked him not to answer any letters she wrote to him "so as not to waste too much time".

On July 7, during his traditional “last words” at court, he notably launched: “War is the fastest instrument of dehumanization of man. When the line between good and evil blurs, the result is always death. I will not accept it. “He had also challenged the judges:” It is already the fifth month of war. We are promised victory and glory, but then why do many of my fellow citizens feel shame and guilt? Boutcha, Irpine, Gostomel, do these names mean anything to you? »

Brave fellow.

[Haiduk]

4 hours ago, Grigb said:

Here is new Youtube UKR video regarding Switchblades. 

It is mostly just a description, but the first part (videos of using it) and discussion of what operators says are useful. 

Interesting - as per his last statement it looks like before Switchblades were limit issue weapon. They will be issued en mass only now.

Becausae of Youtube closed access to this video as to private (at least I see this black screen), I repeat this video, embedded in Twitter

 

Edited July 8, 2022 by Haiduk

[fireship4]

16 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

Things become a lot clearer now. Donbass Region means Dumbass Region and they empty prisons to get the expertise required to hot wire enemy vehicles

I'm sure the dead who were given the option of fighting or being killed will appreciate this sentiment. 

[Huba]

And there's more info about Russia recruiting prisoners:

 

[panzermartin]

If I were a prisoner and get drafted in the fight I would propably organize with others and try to escape towards the enemy lines with the first chance and probably earn my life and freedom. And that's a plot worth a movie I think

[dan/california]

Oh My!

[Haiduk]

Now I return to the episode with Russian tanks, stopped by mines.

Here is "cutted scene" - the fifth Russian tank didn't blow up on the mine, this was very close artillery shell hit - the tank passed between disabled vehicles and drove further and shot with the gun. Then it stopped. Maybe shell fragments penetrated side hull and caused some damages, who knows.

Theese "luckies" were from next exotic unit, moved to Ukraine - 18th machingun-artillery division from Far East, which defends Kurils islands. Captured documents showed m/u 71436 - this is 49th machingun-artillery regiment (Iturup Island) of this division. They tried to breakthroug to Bohorodychne village along Siverskyi Donets river bank, but got some mines and artillery fire. UKR 79th air-assault brigade reportedly defends the village. 

Machinegun-artillery regiment has two machinegun-artillery battalions, one mobile motor-rifle battalion on MT-LB, tank company of 9 tanks (T-72B in 2017), artillery battalion (18 2S5 or 6 2S5 and 12 2A36), AT-battery, SAM battalion (8 TOR-M2U), AA battalion (6 Strela-10, 6 Shilka, 27 MANPADs), MLRS battery (6 Grad)

Here the full episode, were fifth tank survived after close hit (second video), but according to photos pbelow probably was destroyed later. 

Photos of battlefield (I don't post dead Russian tankers). I see 6 tanks

Not only in Bohorodychne was hot today. At the morning Russian troops took some ground near Verkhniokamyanske, but after heavy artilelry strikes Russians reportedly suffered heavy losses and withdrew even from recently taken positions.

Edited July 8, 2022 by Haiduk

[womble]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

Putin literally just said Russia is at war. Escalation, here we come:

 

Is that a DoW? I suspect that "formally" it's not, because it doesn't name any recognised, well-defined political entity. They'd be idiots to actually do anything about it, though. So Iskanders at Polish targets sometime soon, then.

[Machor]

Ukrainian PzH 2000 in action; this time we get to see the autoloader:

Video of the flag-raising operation on Snake Island:

 

[Butschi]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yes, absolutely.  This would be akin to the 9/11 attack on the US.  The Taliban government said "those are not our boys" and the US said "you host them, so they are your boys".  In this case the US gave the Taliban a chance to hand over AQ and they declined.  We all know what happened next.

I expect Russia would be given the same opportunity to hand over those responsible and about the same amount of time to do it.  Unless, of course, the morons launched another attack.  There would be no hesitation in that case.

Now, if there is no central Russian government to answer the demands of NATO then it will likely fall on whomever claims control of the territory the attack came from.  Someone is ALWAYS going to claim they are in control.  Whether they are or aren't doesn't really matter.

It would have been so much better for Russians and the world they live in if their government had been honest with them about the strength of NATO relative to Russia.  It is no surprise at all that there's many people in Russia that think NATO is weak and Russia is strong.  The war in Ukraine is not a lesson they seemed to be interested in learning from.

Steve

This all sounds a bit too Tom Clancy-ish for me. I mean internal struggle within Russia, some rogue army elements or terrorists get hold of a few arty assets and strike at a NATO country, everything spirals out of control, WW3. I doubt it would work like that in reality. 9/11 was... well how to put it without stirring up a hornets' nest... special. It was unprecedent just because of the scale and because most of the NATO countries were quick in pledging unlimited solidarity they did not really have a way out when the US invoked article 5. But don't you think, had UK tried to invoke article 5 and asked NATO to help them invade Ireland because they sheltered (or were not terribly enthusiastic about rooting out) some high ranking IRA members that everyone would have condoled the British Prime Minister and then told him/her to calm down?

I'd rather think that, assuming casualties are not too high, there would be some strongly worded letters to Moscow and in case they would refuse to help it would be more and better weapons for Ukraine. Some symbolic low level retaliation and best. But no real escalation beyond that.

[cesmonkey]

The transcript for today's DoD background briefing where they talk about the additional HIMARS is now posted:
https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3088129/senior-defense-official-holds-a-background-briefing/

[Beleg85]

41 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Theese "luckies" were from next exotic unit, moved to Ukraine - 18th machingun-artillery division from Far East, which defends Kurils islands. Captured documents showed m/u 71436 - this is 49th machingun-artillery regiment (Iturup Island) of this division. They tried to breakthroug to Bohorodychne village along Siverskyi Donets river bank, but got some mines and artillery fire. UKR 79th air-assault brigade reportedly defends the village. 

It's curious if they are freshly transfered, they don't seem to be best tacticians around...

Beautiful Island by the way, photos are worth to see.

 

17 minutes ago, Butschi said:

This all sounds a bit too Tom Clancy-ish for me. I mean internal struggle within Russia, some rogue army elements or terrorists get hold of a few arty assets and strike at a NATO country, everything spirals out of control, WW3. I doubt it would work like that in reality. 9/11 was... well how to put it without stirring up a hornets' nest... special. It was unprecedent just because of the scale and because most of the NATO countries were quick in pledging unlimited solidarity they did not really have a way out when the US invoked article 5. But don't you think, had UK tried to invoke article 5 and asked NATO to help them invade Ireland because they sheltered (or were not terribly enthusiastic about rooting out) some high ranking IRA members that everyone would have condoled the British Prime Minister and then told him/her to calm down?

I'd rather think that, assuming casualties are not too high, there would be some strongly worded letters to Moscow and in case they would refuse to help it would be more and better weapons for Ukraine. Some symbolic low level retaliation and best. But no real escalation beyond that.

Agree, such scenario is very unlikely and would need complete loss of control on part of Kremlin a la 1917. They certainly don't like any nationalistic gangs to put their nose in geopolitics. And modern Cossacks are just laughable reenactment groups compared to true Black Sotnyas of the past.

There were however some serious concerns (backed by some threats from RUS oficcials) in PL and Baltics around 1-3 weeks into the war that Russian will try to use some "Banderite" saboteurs with captured Stingers to shoot down a plane or take similar state-sponsored terrorism to dissuade Allies from providing Ukraine with weapons. They would deny this like any other terrorist acts in the past (Czechia, Bulgaria, UK) so this could pass beyond declaration of war.

But now they seem unable to coordinate this, and spells of retaliation from Big Bad Russia does not work anymore.

In fact it seems to be other way around...

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/vtd27l/2_soldiers_of_the_german_bundeswehr_planned_to/

Can any of German members confirm this story? Sound too cool to be true.

 

Edited July 8, 2022 by Beleg85

[Huba]

28 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

The transcript for today's DoD background briefing where they talk about the additional HIMARS is now posted:
https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3088129/senior-defense-official-holds-a-background-briefing/

Thanks for that link. I worked in media for many years, and if I learned something from that exposure, it is to look for original press releases/ conferences/ speeches. Secondary sources, more often then not omit important details. Oh, and if you are a professional, you can be 100% sure that reporting from your area of expertise will be unacceptably simplified So some details from this briefing:

- US is training HIMARS crew continuously, so we can expect more

- question about ATACMS was dodged, there are none at this point as not needed in current battles, UA is requesting them

- flat out denied any training for any US aircraft

- not clear if delivering Excalibur or PGK. Or SADARM/ BONUS for  that matter. 1K of precision shells, that's it

- didn't want to answer about equipment losses, apart from stating that no HIMARS was destroyed

- NASAMS  to be delivered "in several months"

- US is preparing to support Ukraine for months and years

He didn't answer any operational questions, but there is to be separate briefing about that. I'd be happy to watch it/ see the transcript!

49 minutes ago, Machor said:

Ukrainian PzH 2000 in action; this time we get to see the autoloader:

And loader's flip-flops...

 

Edited July 8, 2022 by Huba

[OldSarge]

2 hours ago, Artkin said:

thank you, this is it. So it's 8 years regardless

The one exception to the 8 year term is in the event of a major conflict, then service contracts can be extended for the duration of the conflict under a "Stop Loss" mandate, it is buried in the fine print.  That is exceedingly rare and would probably be only selectively applied based upon MOS or rank.

[fireship4]

 I ask your forbearance as I summarise some of the discussion over the last few pages.  I don't have much to add. 

[EDIT: It turned out longer than my arm so I have put it all in a quote box.]

Quote

Firstly on selling CMBS/a CMBS module at this time:

18 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

There's a big difference having something that has been on sale for years continue to be for sale vs. releasing something brand new.  Same big difference between having an already existing product go on sale with all the other products of a company vs. having a sale for a specific product. 

We are doing nothing to use this war to our financial advantage.  Releasing new content at this time or specifically promoting CMBS would.  It's not only bad business, I think it's immoral.  I'd sooner delete the 98% done Module for CMBS, pissing away months of work we've already paid for, rather than release it under these circumstances.

Sorry to disappoint some of you fans, but we do indeed have scruples.

Steve

 

15 hours ago, Rice said:

Yes it is also true that it is an existing product, and all the other titles on Steam went on sale, but it still stands that you are putting the game on sale during the conflict while simultaneously refusing to work on the game during the conflict.

 

3 hours ago, Rice said:

It's great that he's enjoying himself in this thread, but it leaves the greater community, that aren't regularly posting here, asking why everything has to be halted. The logic behind the apparent hold on game development is not sound, as I previously went over in my last post. It's really looking more like paranoia when it comes to Cold War.

 

I appreciate Steve's sentiment in the first quote and think they are striking the correct balance.  CMBS is an old game, and was in development before Russia invaded in 2014.  I don't have a problem with it being sold, nor even going on sale - if people want to game out scenarios etc. that are inspired by this, once again, old game, showcasing the modern RU army at war, good for them (and they is me).

I also agree another module for such, even if set in the same parallel universe, might be a step to far, and a new game set in the modern situation would definately be so.  I don't think I need to go into why.  I will admit a certain hankering to see CMBS in an updated guise where certain behavioural and tactical and technological assumtions/decisions are corrected - these are well documented in the thread on what users would like out of an engine update.  How this could be achieved considering the above I don't know. 

As for as this thread being a distraction... I don't really understand @Rice and @Grey Fox's positions - no-one is forced to post in this thread, users are welcome to start discussions more focused on the games elsewhere, the developers' time is theirs to do with as they wish - and I am saying this as someone who has made my position clear on the speed and direction of such toward my favoured option of a new engine.

 

Secondly the discussion on out-of-control RU nationalist militias etc.:

15 hours ago, Grigb said:

If the war will not end until September we will see the emergence of another power actor - Nationalist paramilitary. RU ISIS is being born in front of our eyes.

 

15 hours ago, Grigb said:

Indeed. The issue is it will be ugly, and they will try to hit NATO countries whenever possible. They are not regulars, so they are not afraid of Article 5.

 

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

First, Articles 4 and 5 make it clear that a nation can make a request based on any criteria it wishes to, but it is up to the rest of NATO to determine if it's valid enough to qualify for a response.  If NATO thinks it looks, walks, and quacks like a duck then it's a duck.  Doesn't matter how much Russia protests that it it's an elephant.

 

7 hours ago, Grigb said:

These guys do not care if Article 5 is triggered. They do not have the Kremlin or big bunker to hit. They do not have big military bases or big conventional units. They will disappear among civilians as soon as they feel like it. NATO swift response is actually beneficial to them as it means NATO strikes /invasion that justifies their existence.

Arty strikes at border targets. Cross border raid to hit border guard/police units. ATGM/MANPAD ambush. 

Just ask yourself how many Eastern European border units are ready to deal with drone adjusted arty? How many of them are ready to deal with drone coordinated ambush? ATGM/MANPAD ambush? That's where we are heading now unfortunately. 

 

6 hours ago, Grigb said:

However, rumors are that RU gave green light for formation of volunteer battalions in border regions. Well, there are already volunteer battalions forming in various regions. But they are more closely integrated in to RU army. The new ones are different matter. They are specifically for cross border war. If they will be able to form them (RU military does not want them).

On the other hand, we are not talking about conventional warfare. Ugly terror strikes at NATO infrastructure in resident areas, malls, kindergartens. Everything you see they do against UKR but to the lesser degree.  

 

5 hours ago, Grigb said:

Keep in mind we are talking about RU in turmoil. You cannot guarantee that RU military will exist or will maintain order in border areas. You hit few suspicions guys only to discover they are illegal immigrants or smugglers.

 

5 hours ago, Huba said:

1. RU central government is still in control, and doesn't let them > there are civil war style fights near the border, NATO on very high alert, but don't respond

2. RU central government is still in control, and lets them > RU central government attacks NATO, WWIII (rather unlikely)

3. RU central government is not in control, and this happens > NATO murders them in seconds after they open fire. There's nobody to respond on the central level anyway, so nothing happens.

 

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Agree, such scenario is very unlikely and would need complete loss of control on part of Kremlin a la 1917. They certainly don't like any nationalistic gangs to put their nose in geopolitics. And modern Cossacks are just laughable reenactment groups compared to true Black Sotnyas of the past.

I think the subject is covered well over the course of the posts i've included here.  I will simply ruminate as an amateur: It is clear to me that the Russian state security services want to maintain control, and value the deniability, disposability and economy of non-state assets.  At the same time it is not clear to me how much control they actually have in general terms, nor how centralised the state actually is, as opposed to a constantly vying mass of interests.

The Wagner group was establised by Dmitri Utkin I believe, as a private venture, before being arrested en masse and converted into a deniable subsidiary under Prigozhin.

Another example would be various leaders in the Donbass dying until only one state-controlled asset remained.

I do think it would be hard to use forces such as these to attack NATO without responsibility being placed on the state, short of civil-war level turmoil where deniability may give way to plausible loss of control, but I think in that scenario they wouldn't be going abroad to achieve their goals.

I do not discount however the possibility they could play a role in a conversion of the conflict into a forever-war complete with full mobilisation and drawing NATO into small enough border clashes to maintain a plausible war without all the trouble of getting invaded, to ensure the position of the tsar and the integrity of the federation.

 

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

With Jeremy Corbyn out of the Labour leadership role, things are definitely better than they might have been a few years ago.

Steve

Meh.  Jeremy Corbyn was a welcome departure at the time, politics had been crying out for some sort of principled actor on the left, one with consistent views that didn't chase the electorate, nor simply manage the status quo, but had a vision for a better future.  The current lot have not been able to inspire the populace even against what could be the three worst prime ministers in British history.

I even appreciated his questioning of the nuclear deterrant and how he would use it - it is at least worth questioning whether it is in fact rational or moral to glass a population center in retaliation after a first strike, considering MAD had therefore plausibly been disproven.  Indeed the subject is complex, MAD is no longer the strategy, and giving a definitive answer is perhaps giving away some of your leverage (IIRC I don't believe he did in the end).  Never the less he explored the issue when a minister more concerned with defensive play, even with the end goal of enacting progressive policy, would have kept their mouths shut.

I was a little dismayed to hear he had been rather naive on Russia more recently, however you never know what to believe re. media reporting where he is concerned.  His removal as Labour leader was widely seen as a coup (with media assistance) by new-labour members some of whom would be better placed in the liberal democrats, being a somewhat 'conservatives-lite' party.  I would contend there may be no greater danger to Russia than true believers in various left causes, inside or outside.

I may not be in favour of wide-scale nationalisation, but there is a lot of potentially good policy that would benefit the UK which could only really claim to be decended from discussion on the left.  Or the UK could continue to leave a large stratum of society to rot.  Watch the latest 'Bald and Bankrupt' if you want to know what kind of grey post soviet hellscape many of it's subjects call home.

No answers please to the last few paragraphs, I just wanted to present an alternative impression of Mr. Corbyn, despite my status as an amateur on UK politics.

 

 

Edited July 8, 2022 by fireship4

[chuckdyke]

His latest update.

 

[Huba]

A video combining a number of Switchblade strikes. it looks like it has a kind of a semi-automatic guidance where it picks a target that is in the middle of the camera and guides itself into it. Looks scary.

 

[fireship4]

12 minutes ago, Huba said:

A video combining a number of Switchblade strikes. it looks like it has a kind of a semi-automatic guidance where it picks a target that is in the middle of the camera and guides itself into it. Looks scary.

I think the green cursor is the operator clicking to specify a target which is then tracked (it apparently tracks a moving person at one point after they are selected).  I'm not sure what the white cursor is.  There is a longer video out there (perhaps earlier in the thread) that includes some of the same footage.

Edited July 8, 2022 by fireship4