How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Regarding the discussion about Article 5 and Little Green Men, Tourists, or other Russian tricks to obfuscate their aggression, I don't see it as being practical any more.

Unfortunately, I am not talking about any of these. Regulars will not mess with NATO. I am talking about Nationalist Initiative Groups as ISIS-like Toyota warriors. These guys do not care if Article 5 is triggered. They do not have the Kremlin or big bunker to hit. They do not have big military bases or big conventional units. They will disappear among civilians as soon as they feel like it. NATO swift response is actually beneficial to them as it means NATO strikes /invasion that justifies their existence.

Arty strikes at border targets. Cross border raid to hit border guard/police units. ATGM/MANPAD ambush. 

Just ask yourself how many Eastern European border units are ready to deal with drone adjusted arty? How many of them are ready to deal with drone coordinated ambush? ATGM/MANPAD ambush? That's where we are heading now unfortunately. 

[Grigb]

Here is new Youtube UKR video regarding Switchblades. 

It is mostly just a description, but the first part (videos of using it) and discussion of what operators says are useful. 

Quote

00:00 Demonstration

00:00 Border guards' trench is attacked
00:12 Evacuation of the heavy 300th [wounded] after the drone [attack]
00:27 takeaway of the 200th [dead]... by 2 colleagues
00:41 We don't leave[/drop] ours [RU propaganda meme that RU does not leave/drop own troops]
00:48 Special Operation Unit destroys tank personnel
00:57 FSB border guards
01:18 Modern complex "Grenadier"

13:29 Discussion
I talked to the people who pilot these Switchblades. The statistics are the following - around nine out of ten always hit, in eight cases these are direct hits. The trick is that the operator corrects where it goes. It is always at least 300 [wounded] (very heavy) or 200 [dead] at once. Does it justify the cost? Certainly, justifies because with the help of one Switch you disable three people, plus the moral component.

[Advantages] The fast-piloting speed - 150 kph. It also attack almost soundlessly and it is impossible to react to it.
On the topic of why there is no video - when the operators work the video is going only to the operator laptop. They often don't have time to pull a laptop with them or to record a video [did not really understood what the exact problem was. Could be video is just transmitted only to operator laptop and is not written anywhere, so operator has to do extras steps he has no time to do]. The result is important, video is not.

Therefore, Orcs, be afraid - a lot of operators have passed the courses now, it will be put into service en masse and victory will come closer [to us]. Glory to Ukraine

Interesting - as per his last statement it looks like before Switchblades were limit issue weapon. They will be issued en mass only now.

[Huba]

29 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Unfortunately, I am not talking about any of these. Regulars will not mess with NATO. I am talking about Nationalist Initiative Groups as ISIS-like Toyota warriors. These guys do not care if Article 5 is triggered. They do not have the Kremlin or big bunker to hit. They do not have big military bases or big conventional units. They will disappear among civilians as soon as they feel like it. NATO swift response is actually beneficial to them as it means NATO strikes /invasion that justifies their existence.

Arty strikes at border targets. Cross border raid to hit border guard/police units. ATGM/MANPAD ambush. 

Just ask yourself how many Eastern European border units are ready to deal with drone adjusted arty? How many of them are ready to deal with drone coordinated ambush? ATGM/MANPAD ambush? That's where we are heading now unfortunately. 

At least Poland and Lithuania have a big-ass wall/ fence on the border, complete with remote sensors etc. Because of Luka's shenanigans with pushing refugees into EU, there is actual army deployed there, and state of emergency declared along the whole border. There are no heavy weapons deployed obviously, but that's the only part missing. There could be one incident, the second would be met with counterfire.

Estonia is also building a border wall, and so is Latvia (at least on Belarusian border). Finland announced the desire to do so too. And there are NATO troops deployed in the Baltics too. I mean, it would be a crappy situation, posing a significant escalation risk, no doubt, but it isn't like we are not prepared for this.

Edit: I imagine that if it came to that, there would be literally 1 armed NATO drone for every 10km of the russian border. If there's one thing Western armies were preparing for the last 20 years, it is counterinsurgency/ asymmetric warfare.

As you can see on the video, the only part missing are landmines:

 

Edited July 8, 2022 by Huba

[billbindc]

9 hours ago, Rice said:

Ok, but as I mentioned, the game still has gone on sale multiple times during the war. Are we going to conveniently forget that? How is that not dangerously close to profiteering as is?

Probably late to this party but if you are screaming for content without realizing that you are getting to witness the discussion and analysis that's going to lead to far better content in the future then you folks have lost the plot completely. In fact, you are reading some of the very best analysis of the war pretty much anywhere. If your sights are set a millimeter higher than the screen in front of you then shouldn't be upset, you should be be ecstatic that you are getting to have this resource.

[panzermartin]

22 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Unfortunately, I am not talking about any of these. Regulars will not mess with NATO. I am talking about Nationalist Initiative Groups as ISIS-like Toyota warriors. These guys do not care if Article 5 is triggered. They do not have the Kremlin or big bunker to hit. They do not have big military bases or big conventional units. They will disappear among civilians as soon as they feel like it. NATO swift response is actually beneficial to them as it means NATO strikes /invasion that justifies their existence.

Arty strikes at border targets. Cross border raid to hit border guard/police units. ATGM/MANPAD ambush. 

Just ask yourself how many Eastern European border units are ready to deal with drone adjusted arty? How many of them are ready to deal with drone coordinated ambush? ATGM/MANPAD ambush? That's where we are heading now unfortunately. 

How sizeable do you think these forces are inside Russia? They can make a whole secondary army for instance? If they are not that many its not that big deal. 

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

Major Alexander Indrikov, VDV, unknown unit:

 

[Grigb]

15 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

How sizeable do you think these forces are inside Russia? They can make a whole secondary army for instance? If they are not that many its not that big deal. 

Right now, they are very small. It is more like NCO cadre, not a real force. By themselves they are not that dangerous. However, rumors are that RU gave green light for formation of volunteer battalions in border regions. Well, there are already volunteer battalions forming in various regions. But they are more closely integrated in to RU army. The new ones are different matter. They are specifically for cross border war. If they will be able to form them (RU military does not want them).

On the other hand, we are not talking about conventional warfare. Ugly terror strikes at NATO infrastructure in resident areas, malls, kindergartens. Everything you see they do against UKR but to the lesser degree.  

[Huba]

Just now, Grigb said:

Right now, they are very small. It is more like NCO cadre, not a real force. By themselves they are not that dangerous. However, rumors are that RU gave green light for formation of volunteer battalions in border regions. Well, there are already volunteer battalions forming in various regions. But they are more closely integrated in to RU army. The new ones are different matter. They are specifically for cross border war. If they will be able to form them (RU military does not want them).

On the other hand, we are not talking about conventional warfare. Ugly terror strikes at NATO infrastructure in resident areas, malls, kindergartens. Everything you see they do against UKR but to the lesser degree.  

Wouldn't they have their hand full along the border with Ukraine? The only way they could pull something like this off against a NATO country would be to infiltrate (Narva?) and then conduct terrorist attacks. But after first case the border security would become nuts, not a mouse would go unnoticed there. Russia on it's side also has a special border security zone - not that it would stop the irregulars, but at least it would made differentiating them from civilians rather easy, there are no random tourists wandering there.

I wonder what NATO policy would be for returning fire across the border though, that would be one scary moment.

[BlackMoria]

I don't think it be a game changer.  All NATO has to do is capture a few of these mooks alive during an act, establish who they are.  If Russian nationality, brand Russia as state sponsor of terrorism, then draw the red line that another act of aggression will invoke a discussion of Article 5 and the ramifications of that.  

Russia will then send out their enforcer and 'wet' teams to deal with the loose cannons, because Russian doesn't want these groups escalating in an uncontrolled fashion.  Russia did a similar thing with problematic Donbass separatists who were mucking up Moscow's plan.

[Huba]

Just now, BlackMoria said:

I don't think it be a game changer.  All NATO has to do is capture a few of these mooks alive during an act, establish who they are.  If Russian nationality, brand Russia as state sponsor of terrorism, then draw the red line that another act of aggression will invoke a discussion of Article 5 and the ramifications of that.  

Russia will then send out their enforcer and 'wet' teams to deal with the loose cannons, because Russian doesn't want these groups escalating in an uncontrolled fashion.  Russia did a similar thing with problematic Donbass separatists who were mucking up Moscow's plan.

Sounds right. And if we'd be reach a point where Russian government looses control along the border areas and can't control the militants anymore, a little counterbattery fire would be the last of their problems.

[Der Zeitgeist]

The German military put another video up with the commander of the German artillery school in Idar-Oberstein, providing some insights into the training of the Ukrainians on the PzH 2000. Unfortunately only in German:

Some notable details:

• The Ukrainians were trained in Germany using their own app-based fire direction systems.
• The guys getting trained were all from active artillery units that were already engaged in combat.
• There is ongoing contact between the Ukrainian PzH 2000 battalion now engaged in combat and the Germans. So far, they were quite successful, particularly with the SMArt 155 munitions, and the PzH 2000 were also hit with counter-battery fire a few times already, without much damage, apparently.
• One challenge was memorizing the computerized fire control systems on the PzH 2000 in a foreign language. Some labels inside the vehicle were taped over with cyrillic markings.
• One problem is the big variety of systems that Ukraine is now receiving from the West, that all have different tactical considerations, training  aspects and logistical footprint.
• The different Western 155mm systems use different types of munition, that are not necessarily compatible, because the fire control systems inside the different guns are configured to particular munitions.
• To help with that, the Ukrainian PzH 2000 received a software update with the ballistics data of all the different 155mm types now available to Ukraine (German, French, Czech, Polish, US...)

[Artkin]

On 2/24/2022 at 10:10 AM, Bulletpoint said:

What is Russia's policy on recalling troops who finished their contracts already? A large portion of the "reserves" could be this pool of people. 

Here in the US you can be recalled after you serve. So if you served 5 years then they can recall you back into service even if you were already out for 4 years. I believe the amount of time is the same as you served. This is what I was told by a friend.

[Grigb]

4 minutes ago, Huba said:

Wouldn't they have their hand full along the border with Ukraine? The only way they could pull something like this off against a NATO country would be to infiltrate (Narva?) and then conduct terrorist attacks. But after first case the border security would become nuts, not a mouse would go unnoticed there. Russia on it's side also has a special border security zone - not that it would stop the irregulars, but at least it would made differentiating them from civilians rather easy, there are no random tourists wandering there.

I wonder what NATO policy would be for returning fire across the border though, that would be one scary moment.

1. They are saying some of their guys are not on LDNR anymore but in border areas doing some staff.
2. Their terror attack is not guys running around with AK. Why bother if they can just pull D-20 and strike local Border/Police office also missing it and striking local shop full of people. What are you going to do? Counter-battery Russian territory? Tomorrow Ukraine hits Belgorod and RU Nats will decide in response to hit NATO targets inside NATO countries with Grads (because they already tried to hit UKR cities, and it did not work). What you gonna do when they pull these things alongside the NATO border?
3. Right now they can attack Finland, Estonia and Latvia. But keep in mind that Luka is not your friend, and some parts are already under RU control. So, Lithuania and Poland are next. 
4. Keep in mind we are talking about RU in turmoil. You cannot guarantee that RU military will exist or will maintain order in border areas. You hit few suspicions guys only to discover they are illegal immigrants or smugglers.

We are not there yet. And it is not a dramatic threat. But you know it is easy to talk about how terror threat is meh until Bataclan happens.

[Grigb]

28 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:

Russia will then send out their enforcer and 'wet' teams to deal with the loose cannons, because Russian doesn't want these groups escalating in an uncontrolled fashion.  Russia did a similar thing with problematic Donbass separatists who were mucking up Moscow's plan.

It implies that there is somebody in Moscow who is not engaged in mortal struggle for the power. The Initiative Groups be default require RU turmoil. 

[Huba]

35 minutes ago, Grigb said:

1. They are saying some of their guys are not on LDNR anymore but in border areas doing some staff.
2. Their terror attack is not guys running around with AK. Why bother if they can just pull D-20 and strike local Border/Police office also missing it and striking local shop full of people. What are you going to do? Counter-battery Russian territory? Tomorrow Ukraine hits Belgorod and RU Nats will decide in response to hit NATO targets inside NATO countries with Grads (because they already tried to hit UKR cities, and it did not work). What you gonna do when they pull these things alongside the NATO border?
3. Right now they can attack Finland, Estonia and Latvia. But keep in mind that Luka is not your friend, and some parts are already under RU control. So, Lithuania and Poland are next. 
4. Keep in mind we are talking about RU in turmoil. You cannot guarantee that RU military will exist or will maintain order in border areas. You hit few suspicions guys only to discover they are illegal immigrants or smugglers.

We are not there yet. And it is not a dramatic threat. But you know it is easy to talk about how terror threat is meh until Bataclan happens.

Thank god we're not there yet. But as we are speculating, I see 3 ways it could go, assuming we are at the point where rouge artillery units are able to move to EU/ Russia border areas, and try to do something irresponsible:

1. RU central government is still in control, and doesn't let them > there are civil war style fights near the border, NATO on very high alert, but don't respond

2. RU central government is still in control, and lets them > RU central government attacks NATO, WWIII (rather unlikely)

3. RU central government is not in control, and this happens > NATO murders them in seconds after they open fire. There's nobody to respond on the central level anyway, so nothing happens.

In case of smaller provocations, sniping or maybe even ATGM hit, I imagine the scenario 1 happens, but RU government gets a very angry letter, and if it keeps repeating itself, we are off to scenario 3.

Edit: by Russia i mean Union State of Russia and Belarus, for all means and purposes they are to be treated as one entity here.

Fun fact: In Polish, Union State of Russia and Belarus is "Związek Rosji i Białorusi", acronymed to ZBiR. Zbir means "thug"

Edited July 8, 2022 by Huba

[Taranis]

"President Zelensky visited frontline in Dniropetrovsk region"

 

"Moscow elected official Alexei Gorinov was sentenced on July 8, 2022 to seven years in prison for denouncing the Russian assault on Ukraine. KIRILL KUDRYAVTSEV / AFP"

Alexeï Gorinov had appeared at this last audience, in his glass cage, brandishing a sign: “Do you still need this war? The police positioned themselves to hide it, and people who had come to support the politician were evacuated from the room. When the verdict was announced, his wife, in tears, asked him not to answer any letters she wrote to him "so as not to waste too much time".

On July 7, during his traditional “last words” at court, he notably launched: “War is the fastest instrument of dehumanization of man. When the line between good and evil blurs, the result is always death. I will not accept it. “He had also challenged the judges:” It is already the fifth month of war. We are promised victory and glory, but then why do many of my fellow citizens feel shame and guilt? Boutcha, Irpine, Gostomel, do these names mean anything to you? »

[BlackMoria]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

1. They are saying some of their guys are not on LDNR anymore but in border areas doing some staff.
2. Their terror attack is not guys running around with AK. Why bother if they can just pull D-20 and strike local Border/Police office also missing it and striking local shop full of people. What are you going to do? Counter-battery Russian territory? Tomorrow Ukraine hits Belgorod and RU Nats will decide in response to hit NATO targets inside NATO countries with Grads (because they already tried to hit UKR cities, and it did not work). What you gonna do when they pull these things alongside the NATO border?
3. Right now they can attack Finland, Estonia and Latvia. But keep in mind that Luka is not your friend, and some parts are already under RU control. So, Lithuania and Poland are next. 
4. Keep in mind we are talking about RU in turmoil. You cannot guarantee that RU military will exist or will maintain order in border areas. You hit few suspicions guys only to discover they are illegal immigrants or smugglers.

We are not there yet. And it is not a dramatic threat. But you know it is easy to talk about how terror threat is meh until Bataclan happens.

Geo political complexities aside, if a rocket/artillery/whatever crosses a NATO border and damages or kills someone, it doesn't matter if it was planned Russian aggression military or non-military, russian or LPNR insurgents, a bunch of drunk yahoos who found a artillery piece to play around with or just lunatic nutjobs.  It crosses the border and the NATO nation in question can invoke Article 5.  Russia can't explain it away because by now, NATO knows when any spokesman for the Kremlin or Duma speaks, they are lying through their teeth.

This is more a problem for Russia than NATO.  There will be always be hotheads out there, regardless of nationality.  The issue for Russia is this - a hothead does something somewhere to NATO and if traced back to Russia.  It is Russia that wears it.  Not the hot heads.  Russia can't afford to ignore their restive hotheads taking action into their own hands and triggering a uncontrolled escalation.  And if they do... well, then, whatever falls on their heads falls on their heads.

Edited July 8, 2022 by BlackMoria
Grammar

[Battlefront.com]

11 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:

It crosses the border and the NATO nation in question can invoke Article 5.  Russia can't explain it away because by now, NATO knows when any spokesman for the Kremlin or Duma speaks, they are lying through their teeth.

Yes, absolutely.  This would be akin to the 9/11 attack on the US.  The Taliban government said "those are not our boys" and the US said "you host them, so they are your boys".  In this case the US gave the Taliban a chance to hand over AQ and they declined.  We all know what happened next.

I expect Russia would be given the same opportunity to hand over those responsible and about the same amount of time to do it.  Unless, of course, the morons launched another attack.  There would be no hesitation in that case.

Now, if there is no central Russian government to answer the demands of NATO then it will likely fall on whomever claims control of the territory the attack came from.  Someone is ALWAYS going to claim they are in control.  Whether they are or aren't doesn't really matter.

It would have been so much better for Russians and the world they live in if their government had been honest with them about the strength of NATO relative to Russia.  It is no surprise at all that there's many people in Russia that think NATO is weak and Russia is strong.  The war in Ukraine is not a lesson they seemed to be interested in learning from.

Steve

[Bearstronaut]

1 hour ago, Artkin said:

Here in the US you can be recalled after you serve. So if you served 5 years then they can recall you back into service even if you were already out for 4 years. I believe the amount of time is the same as you served. This is what I was told by a friend.

When you enlist in the US military you sign up for 8 years. If you enlist for an active duty contract of 5 years then you still owe three years to Uncle Sam in either the regular Reserves or the Inactive Ready Reserve. The regular Reserves you do the whole “one weekend a month, two weeks a year” thing. IRR you don’t have to do a thing but the military can call you back if the crap hits the fan. After you complete the 8 year obligation I’m not sure they can legally force you back in the military. However, retirees can be called back to active duty.

[Huba]

US announced another arms package for Ukraine.

As was to be expected, MLRS presence is expanding at similar rate as M777s some time ago. Bad times to be a Russian invader.

Edit: according to oryx, there are 1000 Excalibur in the package, but I didn't see the official confirmation yet. I run across this little gem though: https://slideplayer.com/slide/17798318/

It looks like there exists a system for programming Excalibur without integrated FCS on the gun, called PEFCS. Australia bought some like 15 years ago

Edited July 8, 2022 by Huba

[dan/california]

20 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yes, absolutely.  This would be akin to the 9/11 attack on the US.  The Taliban government said "those are not our boys" and the US said "you host them, so they are your boys".  In this case the US gave the Taliban a chance to hand over AQ and they declined.  We all know what happened next.

I expect Russia would be given the same opportunity to hand over those responsible and about the same amount of time to do it.  Unless, of course, the morons launched another attack.  There would be no hesitation in that case.

Now, if there is no central Russian government to answer the demands of NATO then it will likely fall on whomever claims control of the territory the attack came from.  Someone is ALWAYS going to claim they are in control.  Whether they are or aren't doesn't really matter.

It would have been so much better for Russians and the world they live in if their government had been honest with them about the strength of NATO relative to Russia.  It is no surprise at all that there's many people in Russia that think NATO is weak and Russia is strong.  The war in Ukraine is not a lesson they seemed to be interested in learning from.

Steve

If the Russians  tried to disclaim responsibility for idiots in with grads NATO would simply say fine, and start droning any grad system within 25 miles of the border. Kind of like what happened at that base in Syria after the Russian command in country  said no those aren't our guys. There wasn't enough left to bury. If they do do claim them, well the Polish army will be in Minsk in a week.

Given that the Russians have now had a REAL demonstration of what GMLRS can do it might be worth while to park 80% of the systems currently in Europe around Kaliningrad, just to encourage calm thinking on the Russians part.

[Cederic]

13 hours ago, Rice said:

Ok, but as I mentioned, the game still has gone on sale multiple times during the war. Are we going to conveniently forget that? How is that not dangerously close to profiteering as is?

How dare a company with ongoing staff costs - not to mention the hosting costs for this forum - continue to sell their products at a time of high inflation without raising prices.

What was that? They actually reduced prices?

"Profiteering" by reducing prices is a new one on me, I must admit.

Perhaps we should buy you a copy of the game - at whatever price point - so that you can explore the capabilities of the Russian armed forces if properly deployed and effectively used. Certainly the Russian staff should have tried that.

I can't and don't speak for Battlefront, I'm merely sharing my own answer to the question posed. Personally I greatly look forward to playing a future iteration of the game that benefits from the events of this war, and the analysis of them.

[Rice]

2 hours ago, billbindc said:

you are getting to witness the discussion and analysis that's going to lead to far better content in the future (...) you are reading some of the very best analysis of the war pretty much anywhere.

What is particularly puzzling about this comment is the lack of consideration that development of CM and this thread really aren't mutually exclusive. Especially considering Cold War, which has it's own team dedicated to doing the work. As Steve said himself earlier, he doesn't do any of the coding. It's great that he's enjoying himself in this thread, but it leaves the greater community, that aren't regularly posting here, asking why everything has to be halted. The logic behind the apparent hold on game development is not sound, as I previously went over in my last post. It's really looking more like paranoia when it comes to Cold War. Importantly, I wanted to again note that I'm not trying to take a shot at BFC, I just, like the other people who enjoy this franchise, am frustrated with broken promises and stagnation. Maybe I'm wrong and there is development going on behind the scenes that we aren't privy to (I certainly hope this is the case), and the "very soon" comment from Steve materializes into something more than a 1000 page participation trophy. It's not too late to change course.

[Battlefront.com]

16 minutes ago, Cederic said:

How dare a company with ongoing staff costs - not to mention the hosting costs for this forum - continue to sell their products at a time of high inflation without raising prices.

What was that? They actually reduced prices?

"Profiteering" by reducing prices is a new one on me, I must admit.

Heh... well, that's one way of looking at it!  A good capitalist would double the price

16 minutes ago, Cederic said:

Perhaps we should buy you a copy of the game - at whatever price point - so that you can explore the capabilities of the Russian armed forces if properly deployed and effectively used. Certainly the Russian staff should have tried that.

I can't and don't speak for Battlefront, I'm merely sharing my own answer to the question posed. Personally I greatly look forward to playing a future iteration of the game that benefits from the events of this war, and the analysis of them.

Since this still is getting traction, I figure I should repost from a few pages ago:

There's a big difference having something that has been on sale for years continue to be for sale vs. releasing something brand new.  Same big difference between having an already existing product go on sale with all the other products of a company vs. having a sale for a specific product. 

We are doing nothing to use this war to our financial advantage.  Releasing new content at this time or specifically promoting CMBS would.  It's not only bad business, I think it's immoral.  I'd sooner delete the 98% done Module for CMBS, pissing away months of work we've already paid for, rather than release it under these circumstances.

Sorry to disappoint some of you fans, but we do indeed have scruples.

Steve

[A Canadian Cat]

1 minute ago, Rice said:

The logic behind the apparent hold on game development is not sound

That's just your opinion. Given that Steve opinion is the one that counts...

If you don't like this thread go contribute something to one of the other CM sub forums instead of trying to derail this one. There are still discussion going on in other threads, dispute your claims otherwise. Go contribute to those discussions and stop being off topic here.