How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[sburke]

3 minutes ago, Artkin said:

A RAND document from April 11th agrees with you.

"Ukraine does indeed control Europe's second-largest known reserves of natural gas, almost 80 percent of which are located east of the Dnipro River."

https://www.rand.org/blog/2022/04/russia-does-not-seem-to-be-after-ukraines-gas-reserves.html

I think that was covered way back in this thread and also why to Russia it really isn't as important as it would seem 

1.It is small compared to Russian reserves

2 the cost to exploit it isn't worth the effort to Russia, even without Ukraine shelling them as they try to drill.

[Huba]

2 minutes ago, Artkin said:

A RAND document from April 11th agrees with you.

"Ukraine does indeed control Europe's second-largest known reserves of natural gas, almost 80 percent of which are located east of the Dnipro River."

https://www.rand.org/blog/2022/04/russia-does-not-seem-to-be-after-ukraines-gas-reserves.html

And they already have massive infrastructure to export it to Europe, jus build the wells. 

In this light, pushing for maximalist UA victory makes a lot of sense for EU.

[Huba]

16 minutes ago, sburke said:

I think that was covered way back in this thread and also why to Russia it really isn't as important as it would seem 

1.It is small compared to Russian reserves

2 the cost to exploit it isn't worth the effort to Russia, even without Ukraine shelling them as they try to drill.

Denying it to UA to keep the share in.EU market and political leverage is worth a lot of effort though, but not enough for a war like this one IMO. 

@Butschi The numbers I remember hearing are sround 700B$ of damage in UA, and 300 - 500B$ worth of RU assets frozen. So it is very substantial, no doubt.  And AFAIK damn the oligarch's assets, RU central bank  reserves they kept abroad are the true treasure chest. 

Edited July 9, 2022 by Huba

[Artkin]

3 minutes ago, sburke said:

I think that was covered way back in this thread and also why to Russia it really isn't as important as it would seem 

1.It is small compared to Russian reserves

2 the cost to exploit it isn't worth the effort to Russia, even without Ukraine shelling them as they try to drill.

Damn, oh well.

Personally I disagree with the RAND author. Having control of all that oil is pretty significant. Perhaps less so as the years go by, but for now, oil will probably have to be imported from greater distances and in different ways, driving up the price.

Of course the main war goal wasn't about the oil, but if they took Kiev and pushed South/North up the Western side of Dniepr, they probably could have somewhat safe operations (Excluding partisans).

It is true that the Russians reserves are greater but I don't believe that's significant.

From the RAND document:

"Russia is in many ways more dependent on gas exports to Europe than the EU is on imports from Russia. According to the 2021 BP Statistical Review (PDF), in 2020, Europe—excluding Belarus—accounted for almost 78 percent of Russia's overall natural gas exports. "

So to me perhaps Putin and Xi discussed economics when they met, and China decided they would buy Russian gas after the war started.  Not sure what's up with India, I believe they are buying from Russia still.

8 minutes ago, Huba said:

And they already have massive infrastructure to export it to Europe, jus build the wells. 

In this light, pushing for maximalist UA victory makes a lot of sense for EU.

I agree. It seems like Europe is getting blackmailed from the start.

[Artkin]

2 minutes ago, Huba said:

Denying it to UA to keep the share in EU market and political leverage is worth a lot of effort though, but not enough for a war like this one IMO.

Yeah I couldn't see Putin turning back after he started the invasion, especially after the dash to Kiev.

[Artkin]

Russia is not a hugely modernized country. They aren't going to be producing microprocessors anytime soon (Just an example). Their population and that area in general are probably pretty good at what they do already. So grain and oil fits the Russian economic portfolio perfect.

[Huba]

5 minutes ago, Artkin said:

agree. It seems like Europe is getting blackmailed from the start

By RU you mean? Getting new supplier of NG in form of Ukraine would be a godsend for EU energy security. 

[Artkin]

4 minutes ago, Huba said:

By RU you mean? Getting new supplier of NG in form of Ukraine would be a godsend for EU energy security. 

Yes from the RU. They already control most of Ukraine's oil reserves and the grain is pretty much what they'll be fighting over if they keep pushing West.

The RAND document mentioned NG as an alternative, but I'm unsure of how useful that would be compared to having oil.

[Artkin]

Do a lot of Europeans heat their homes with NG? Or drive NG vehicles? (I dont know)

To me it doesn't seem as practical as controlling oil

[Butschi]

2 minutes ago, Artkin said:

Do a lot of Europeans heat their homes with NG? Or drive NG vehicles? (I dont know)

To me it doesn't seem as practical as controlling oil

Not that I am an expert on this... In Germany there are still a lot of old oil based heating systems around but gas was considered the more modern and efficient. NG for vehicles is a total niche thing. A friend of mine once had an NG car. But I know noone else who had such a thing. There aren't that many gas stations around who offer it.

[Huba]

5 minutes ago, Artkin said:

Do a lot of Europeans heat their homes with NG? Or drive NG vehicles? (I dont know)

To me it doesn't seem as practical as controlling oil

Ha, then read about it a bit, it really puts the whole affair in right perspective. Oil is easily sourced elsewhere and already phased out mostly. Gas is now a big problem, as the transport infrastructure is fixed (pipelines). 50% of DE gas comes from RU, their industry relies on it greatly, as does electricity generarion to a lesser degree. Many other countries have the same problem. If it wasn't for that dependency, I bet EU stance against RU would be way harsher. 

[Butschi]

12 minutes ago, Huba said:

Ha, then read about it a bit, it really puts the whole affair in right perspective. Oil is easily sourced elsewhere and already phased out mostly. Gas is now a big problem, as the transport infrastructure is fixed (pipelines). 50% of DE gas comes from RU, their industry relies on it greatly, as does electricity generarion to a lesser degree. Many other countries have the same problem. If it wasn't for that dependency, I bet EU stance against RU would be way harsher. 

Indeed. For electricity, since we phase out our nuclear power plants (which were always unpopular in Germany) and want to get rid of coal plants, gas was to be used for the power base load until the problem with storing or buffering power is solved.

Edited July 9, 2022 by Butschi

[Beleg85]

32 minutes ago, Artkin said:

Personally I disagree with the RAND author. Having control of all that oil is pretty significant. Perhaps less so as the years go by, but for now, oil will probably have to be imported from greater distances and in different ways, driving up the price.

Of course the main war goal wasn't about the oil, but if they took Kiev and pushed South/North up the Western side of Dniepr, they probably could have somewhat safe operations (Excluding partisans).

It is true that the Russians reserves are greater but I don't believe that's significant.

From the RAND document:

"Russia is in many ways more dependent on gas exports to Europe than the EU is on imports from Russia. According to the 2021 BP Statistical Review (PDF), in 2020, Europe—excluding Belarus—accounted for almost 78 percent of Russia's overall natural gas exports. "

So to me perhaps Putin and Xi discussed economics when they met, and China decided they would buy Russian gas after the war started.  Not sure what's up with India, I believe they are buying from Russia still.

RAND report could also serve as additional argument to convince this part of DC military establishment that was against strong involvment to support Ukraine more.

Nice fireballs. I wonder what response Russians will undertake against those ammo dumps attacks. It's impossible to hide them now, they are ambarassment and visibly slowing down their offensive.

 

 

[FancyCat]

1 hour ago, Calamine Waffles said:

*Some* sanctions can be skirted, but the bans on high technology imports that Russia really desires from Europe and the West will probably never be lifted or overcome. Not even after Russia is defeated in Ukraine.
 

If by "6-12" you mean 2 (Almaz-Antey and Votsinsk), then go ahead.

As for the Donbas and Ukraine's economy, I'll just leave this here (from Osprey's Elite series: Armies of Russia's War in Ukraine)

I dunno what the rest of the book says, but with the hindsight of the invasion confirming it, the Donbas has always been merely a lever for influencing the rest of Ukraine. Minsk was a attempt to handicap the Ukrainian state and give Russia a veto in Ukrainian internal affairs. The reason why Russia never wanted to annex Donbas or entertained the republics requests for annexation was actually absorbing it into Russia removes it from leveraging it to damage Ukraine like Bosnia and Republic of Srpska. Crimea they went ahead and annexed it but not Donbas.

[cesmonkey]

2 hours ago, hcrof said:

I would love to see the source of the claim that the donbas contributes 80-90% of Ukraine GDP - what about all the cities of the west, including the capital, where the vast majority of Ukrainian people live?

 

I think the video from Austria was talking about more than just the Donbass, but all the areas of Ukraine that Russia occupies, and the 80-90% was for if Russia succeed in capturing Odessa, also.

... but I see now that others have covered the details of this in the above posts better than I did.

Edited July 9, 2022 by cesmonkey

[The_Capt]

14 hours ago, Artkin said:

A RAND document from April 11th agrees with you.

"Ukraine does indeed control Europe's second-largest known reserves of natural gas, almost 80 percent of which are located east of the Dnipro River."

https://www.rand.org/blog/2022/04/russia-does-not-seem-to-be-after-ukraines-gas-reserves.html

You really should quote the rest:

“However, these reserves amount to less than 3 percent of Russia's total natural gas reserves (PDF). And though Ukraine theoretically might have considerable shale gas reserves, they remain largely unproven, and Russia currently has no experience or technology for shale gas production. For shale oil production, Russia has historically relied on Western technology. However, this reliance has been seriously impeded since 2017, when the United States introduced sanctions to ban American companies from providing shale oil extraction technologies to Russia. If Russia grabbed Ukraine's gas reserves, the same sanctions would almost certainly be imposed on shale gas production technologies.”

The oil and gas “real Russian objective” never really adds up either.  A 3% gain in natural gas reserves is not worth the damage being done to Russian power across all its dimensions.  Russia had no need to bolster it natural gas ownership, it is already the largest in the world (while Ukraine ranks 26th): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_natural_gas_proven_reserves

So Russia’s plan all along was to feint towards Kyiv and destroy about 20% of its ready land forces, then swing to the Donbas, grind there like a horney teenager for months - basically getting nowhere.  So that it could then bounce off that offensive and grab most of eastern Ukraine and seize a fraction of what it already owns, and have to pay to rebuild the shattered infrastructure, find professionals to work/invest there.  All the while somehow evading massive Western sanctions and not getting totally screwed by China and India.

Look this isn’t as bad as black bio-sites but we can see it not too far in the distance.

Edited July 10, 2022 by The_Capt

[poesel]

1 hour ago, Butschi said:

Germany was unable to confiscate real estate owned by Russian oligarchs because... well there is no real register in which to look up what real estate is owned by whom. Germany, paradise for money launderers...

The problem is not the lack of a register - there is one and it has everything including owners. Problem is, that there are often shell companies and it is not easy to find out the ‘real’ owner.
What Germany lacks are laws to confiscate stuff in such unclear circumstances. Italy for instance, has such laws due to their fight against the mafia.

But apart from that, Germany really is a paradise for money laundering…

47 minutes ago, Artkin said:

Do a lot of Europeans heat their homes with NG? Or drive NG vehicles? (I dont know)

To me it doesn't seem as practical as controlling oil

Close to 50% of homes use gas for heating in Germany. For cars it’s negligible. 

Big part of the current public discussion is what will happen in winter. Is it legal for landlords to reduce minimum temperatures in homes? Can warm water creation be partially suspended? What happens to boilers when gas pressure drops in the pipes?
But: there is no discussion about ‘let’s stop this war so we can have gas again’. It’s mostly blaming the current and previous government for putting us in this situation.

IIRC Italy & Spain also use a lot of gas for heating. Spain has other sources but Italy also heavily depends on Russian gas.

[Huba]

More stuff is exploding behind enemy lines, but tonight also in Russia proper. Very close to the border, didn’t have to be GMLRS - perfect precedence…

I bet there will be more such strikes in the upcoming days and Russians will have to acknowledge that their army in vicinity of UA border is fair game.

 

[FancyCat]

From @5urpher on twitter, no idea if its legit bases, but what a map, OSINT is wow.

https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=14Q6WqozGQhpE4KgQr-5zIPNjYiU&ll=48.202766704995796%2C38.00556793133162&z=10

 

[LukeFF]

On 7/8/2022 at 11:40 AM, Bearstronaut said:

When you enlist in the US military you sign up for 8 years. If you enlist for an active duty contract of 5 years then you still owe three years to Uncle Sam in either the regular Reserves or the Inactive Ready Reserve. The regular Reserves you do the whole “one weekend a month, two weeks a year” thing. IRR you don’t have to do a thing but the military can call you back if the crap hits the fan. After you complete the 8 year obligation I’m not sure they can legally force you back in the military. However, retirees can be called back to active duty.

Yes, for me it was the 4 years of active duty and then 4 years of IRR. But, at the time I got out (2007), they had a great deal where if you agreed to serve two years in a National Guard unit, they would waive the remaining two years and guaranteed you wouldn't be required to deploy in case the unit was mobilized. So, I took that deal and in the end it was a good choice. I'd done a year in Iraq and had no desire to go back. 

[Haiduk]

Despite AFU has many modern ATGMs, SPG-9 still in service

[Grigb]

10 hours ago, sburke said:

besides that he also left out one other major item.  The weapons the West is providing will allow Ukraine to make a strategic decision to expand the war.  Hurling an occasional rocket at Ukraine by Russia could easily result in Ukraine targeting facilities in Russia proper on a regular basis.  It remains to be seen how much resolve Russians have if Ukraine starts hitting back at Russian infrastructure, like that bridge.

Politically the RU is much more vulnerable to UKR retaliatory strikes than UKR to RU initial strikes.

• UKR gov does not lie to the citizens that it is the second military power on this planet (after US). RU gov does.
• UKR gov does not lie to the citizens that UKR Air Defence is impenetrable due to UKR wonder AD weapons (better than puny US Patriot/THAAD). RU gov does
• UKR gov does not lie to the citizens that it can destroy any UKR target anywhere anytime due to UKR wonder missile weapons. RU gov does.

So, politically RU can sustain UKR retaliatory strikes only by intercepting 100% of them plus hitting very accurately a lot of UKR hardened gov targets (the same targets RU was unable to hit at all for several months already). That's not possible. 

I mean RU are hitting UKR targets all over UKR for several months for little political gain. UKR are hitting small set of targets in border regions for less than month and LDNR population is already freaking out, RU Nats already demands to purge RU gov to the last man, and RU population feels increasingly worried. 

[Grigb]

11 hours ago, Butschi said:

Now, now, you are aware that your frequency of posting is high enough to saturate the average forum reader's capacity, right?

Nope, I am not - I post like half (often one third) of what I usually go through every day. Sorry, I will cut further. 

[womble]

12 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Nope, I am not - I post like half (often one third) of what I usually go through every day. Sorry, I will cut further. 

I believe Butschi was jesting... In case you're not (jesting), please don't (cut further).

[Butschi]

46 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Nope, I am not - I post like half (often one third) of what I usually go through every day. Sorry, I will cut further. 

Indeed I was merely jesting! Please keep the posts coming!