How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Huba]

Just now, fireship4 said:

I think the green cursor is the operator clicking to specify a target which is then tracked (it tracks a moving person at one point after they are selected).  I'm not sure what the white cursor is.

What it needs is a simple mechanism to work in heavy ECM environment - fly x meters in y direction, then strike first vehicle/ person you recognize, that is not burning already. Preferably use in large concentrations...

[cesmonkey]

Speculating on what is the new type of 155 millimeter artillery ammunition to be supplied by the US, 1000 rounds, with greater precision, suppose it's not Excalibur(too valuable and expensive), nor the German SMArt 155 (not American), nor Copperhead (no laser designators in theater, really), what's left?

The M1156 Precision Guidance Kit?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M982_Excalibur
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SMArt_155
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M712_Copperhead
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M1156_Precision_Guidance_Kit

[akd]

It’s Excalibur.

[Huba]

27 minutes ago, akd said:

It’s Excalibur.

How would you know that? It was deliberately not answered at the Pentagon briefing. It can also be BONUS which IIRC was recently purchased by US, or SADARM if there’s any left in stock.

Anyway, tough times for Russian invaders are coming

Edited July 9, 2022 by Huba

[The_Capt]

5 hours ago, Boo Radley said:

Pfffft! I wave my hand at your thread. WE actually BROKE the forums with the MBT (Long May it Wave).

We were GIANTS among lesser mortals!

 

And don't you forget it, Sparky!

Ah crap.  You lunatics are worse than Beetlejuice, one had to say his name 3 times, and the Candyman required 5.  Peng swamp denizens need only a single whisper.  

For the newcomers, don’t ask, you do not want to know.  Let us all just be happy that particular dark chapter in the human experience is closed for good.

[MSBoxer]

32 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Let us all just be happy that particular dark chapter in the human experience is closed for good.

Just like the Necronomicon, only less pleasant.

[Canada Guy]

Steve, i appreciate you not specifically promoting CMBS during the conflict and I understand that you continue to work behind the scenes. But you mentioned a bone and although we are not expecting something soon, can you expand on this?

I was looking forward to CMBN and it's new DLC so anything to tide us over would be appreciated.  

[Machor]

Grigb posted about this three pages ago, and now it's official:

Russia's McDonald's replacement runs low on fries

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62103506

Quote

 

Some restaurants in the newly opened "Tasty and that's it" fast food chain, which replaced McDonald's in Russia, will temporarily stop serving fries, according to Russian media.

A shortage of the correct variety of potatoes means diners will have to find a different side dish to accompany their burgers and nuggets.

The company says it expects to have fries back on the menu by autumn.

...

But a month after opening, one of the key items on the menu is in short supply. "Rustic potatoes" - a thicker-cut version of the traditional French fry - may also be unavailable.

In a statement to Russian news agency Tass, the company explained that 2021 yielded a poor harvest for the variety of potato needed to make fries.

It said that the company generally tried to source potatoes from Russian producers, but that it had also become impossible to import potatoes from markets that could offer a temporary replacement to the domestic crop.

...

However, in a statement on Telegram titled "There are potatoes - and that's it", Russia's agriculture ministry sought to play down any concerns over a potato shortage.

"The Russian market is fully supplied with potatoes, including processed ones. In addition, crops from the new harvest are already arriving, which rules out the possibility of a shortage," the ministry said.

[The coke was good & the stripper was hot.]

 

 

[dan/california]

Great Kamil thread. I mean they are all great, but this is one of his very best.

[chrisl]

6 minutes ago, Machor said:

Grigb posted about this three pages ago, and now it's official:

Russia's McDonald's replacement runs low on fries

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62103506

 

What about burrito coverins?

Edited July 9, 2022 by chrisl

[The_MonkeyKing]

This could mean bye-bye for most Russian military airfields, black sea fleet in harbor and Kerch Strait bridge.

Edited July 9, 2022 by The_MonkeyKing

[dan/california]

Is this a desperate attempt to get some sort of counter-battery fire against HIMARS? Could the S300 radar get some semblance of a fix on the launcher?

[MikeyD]

Ukraine has already announced that the Kerch Bridge to Crimea is coming down as soon as they have the necessary weaponry. And here comes the 300km MLRS.

Russia has been firing increasingly exotic missiles into Ukraine for quite some time. The assumption is they shot their wad (an old cannoneer term) on standard battlefield missiles some time ago, unless they pull old FROG-7s out of deep storage.

Edited July 9, 2022 by MikeyD

[Vanir Ausf B]

The Financial Times article that tweet references says nothing about 300+km HIMARS ammo. Until we see a credible report I would assume it's not true.

[chrisl]

4 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Is this a desperate attempt to get some sort of counter-battery fire against HIMARS? Could the S300 radar get some semblance of a fix on the launcher?

The article notes that they're installing GPS guidance systems in them.  There's no way the ground-based radar system can provide guidance to ground targets - it needs LOS.  And even if they had radar and command systems in the air, a radar designed for aircraft with just sky in the background isn't going to be useful against ground targets.

So the Russians put some kind of GPS guidance system in them, but given their home grown electronics capability and their limited ability to get western GPS units, they're probably using some really bad GPS systems.

[Grigb]

HIMARS pain

 

Quote

"Our base got hit today. Eleven people 200 [dead], the [number] of wounded have not even been disclosed yet. Were f*cked by "Himars" at five in the morning"

The author was attacked by RU Nats for telling it. He recorded two audios. The summary - he is upset that the losses [implied from UKR arty strikes] are bigger than being discussed; there is no RU CB, UKR are shooting freely [implied Donetsk region]; Azov defenders were right when they declared they would be exchanged [implied the surrender was based on agreement RU publicly denied], the [LDNR] losses [implying all, not from arty strikes] are higher than RU command admits. 

Overall impression - Donetsk locals are seriously upset with UKR freely hitting RU targets. They are about to realize crappy state of RU military. That puts additional pressure on RU for attack to distract of LDNR public from UKR arty strikes. 

[Huba]

Chornobayivka hit for a millionth time:

Arming the drone bomber:

 

Edited July 9, 2022 by Huba

[Grigb]

More HIMARS pain from Murz mixed with usual rant against incompetent RU military and visions of 1917 coming.

Quote

I haven't looked on the Internet yet, but, apparently, in Stakhanov, last night the AFU stroke another warehouse of artillery ammunition of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. What's the count now? Sixth or seventh after the Krasny Luch? It began to exploded at around two o'clock in the morning, it continued to explode until everything has been exploded around four in the morning.

With a glow and other charms [attributes of big explosion].

Well, what can I say? Let's briefly summarize the logic of the supreme leadership of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.

February-March.

Having an overwhelming superiority over the enemy in modern armored vehicles, [they] drive a large part of these armored vehicles and special equipment into the depths of enemy positions without accompanying combat-ready and motivated motorized infantry. [They] Drive unprotected rear columns back and forth and [managed to] lose them. As a result, [they managed to] to lose the vast majority of modern T-72 and T-90 models damaged and abandoned, [managed to] to lose most of the BMP-3 fleet. As a consequence of all this – [managed to] to lose the ability to conduct large operations to a greater depth. [Managed to] Prolong the war.

April-June.

Killing battalions of “privates” [Wagnerites], “barsiks” [BARS - Combat Army Reserve of the Country], “akhmatok”, and, of course, Donetsk and Lugansk, slowly and painfully realize that it is necessary to establish the interaction of infantry with artillery, to reinvent all the bicycles [things already invented] of the First and Second World War on this topic. To start slowly and painfully, with insane losses, to win the war at least like this. [According to RU logic if you are advancing and capturing something (does not matter how unimportant that is) they feel it as victory regardless of losses]

June-July.

Despite the absence of any military secrecy around the supply of modern foreign long-range artillery and MLRS to Ukraine, continue to concentrate artillery ammunition on large industrial facilities that are not adapted to their storage in the zone of guaranteed reach by enemy missiles and artillery [I believe the intention was to store it as close to civilians as possible to use them as shield against not very accurate UKR soviet arty]. To lose all these warehouses one by one. As a consequence - to lose the opportunity to attack normally, at least as they did before. Create a wild "shell famine" out of the blue in conditions when the enemy has just received and mastered new foreign artillery systems and MLRS.

Result.

I know that our army is led by a crowd of untrained morons. Stupidly mean, pathetic, vindictive, petty, thieving, gregarious, going to the big “army mafia”, bringing the “tithe” of their income to the very top. Just stupid, narrow-minded thieves. Like the civilian leadership of the country, the difference is small.

And even the morons themselves are beginning to guess about it. [could be indication that RU MOD is becoming very nervous] That they are morons. And, of course, that they stole something from themselves - their own future.

But you can no longer convince anyone [RU public] that there is no direct telegraph line between Tsarskoye Selo [Tsar HQ in WW1] to Kaiser Wilhelm, through which Rasputin reports to the Kaiser the [RU] situation and sends fresh operational maps by fax.

No, you won't convince no one now [that there is no betrayal]. There are not so many fools who could believe in this [no betrayal], and there will be no time and opportunity to realize this with the intellect through practical experience.

An amazing, of course, living historical anecdote. If I wouldn't have lived in all of this myself– I wouldn't even believed it if they had told me. [RU Nats have been living in denial for years] 
A clear illustration of how insignificant the contribution of the Bolsheviks themselves to the success of the Revolution was compared to the contribution of the tsarist government.

Nicholas II and his ministers with generals as the basis of the creator of first February, and then October. [Murz is left wing fanboy of USSR. Inteligent RU left wingers cannot deny communists brought many horrors to RU. So, they shift blame to Tsarist government and are blaming them for Communist coup]

Better than any [school] textbook.

Go outside and listen all night. Still occasionally bangs.

Do the [sea] shells wish evil to the ship, the woodworms to the oak, the chains to the bull? They just take care of themselves and their offspring, but one day the ship sinks, the oak falls, the bull dies, and we [instead of accepting the truth] start looking for a terrible conspiracy. 

 

[FancyCat]

A lot has been said about the ability of the Russian people to influence the course of the war, whether to keep pressing forward, or end the invasion, it might be time to ask the same regarding the civilians in the separatist republics now the most prominent sign of the course of the war is artillery striking areas of the republics that to my knowledge were pretty much left unaffected directly till now. How encompassing is the information bubble? Will they double down and insist on defending the republics from being reconquered by Ukraine? Will they seek ceasefire and more peaceful reintegration with Ukraine, sparing their soldiers from death? Or is their ability to influence as curtailed like that of the Russian people now?

[Huba]

Rail infrastructure starts to be himarsed too:

 

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

This could mean bye-bye for most Russian military airfields, black sea fleet in harbor and Kerch Strait bridge.

Never use Trukha channel as a sourse of reliable information. This is channel of hype, tracks of owners of wich reportedly lead to Kharkiv administration. Before a war this channel has poorly hidden pro-Russian moods. Now it often shows footage of damage instantly after missile strikes, despaite MoD prohibit to do this, it also throw-in unreliable information. There are no any articles in FT that USA decided to give ATACMS. There was only opinion of two senators, that US shoul give this weapon to Ukraine. But Trukha gives this as acomplished fact.

So, you can use this channel to watch some video, but almost never do not trust all what they write as resonant news

Edited July 9, 2022 by Haiduk

[Grigb]

8 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

A lot has been said about the ability of the Russian people to influence the course of the war, whether to keep pressing forward, or end the invasion, it might be time to ask the same regarding the civilians in the separatist republics now the most prominent sign of the course of the war is artillery striking areas of the republics that to my knowledge were pretty much left unaffected directly till now. How encompassing is the information bubble? Will they double down and insist on defending the republics from being reconquered by Ukraine? Will they seek ceasefire and more peaceful reintegration with Ukraine, sparing their soldiers from death? Or is their ability to influence as curtailed like that of the Russian people now?

Ukranian friends might not agree with my assessment, but the thing is current LDNR public itself can influence nothing jsut like RU public (and does not want to like RU public because it is safer). However, it has two indirect impacts:

• First, LDNR civilian public are waking up from RU propaganda that RU state can protect them. RU likes to put military staff around civilians. So, any UKR strikes are really disruptive to civilian life. Also, currently RU looks like it cannot do anything about it. All together it is showing to locals that RU military is a paper tiger and betting on it is bad. That + losses make control over LDNR politically unfeasible. It is like the Snake Island scenario but with a bunch of displeased civilians - what is the point of holding it if you constantly take casualties and face locals who what you to leave them alone?
• Donetsk mobiks holding the south front are increasingly nervous. They are starting to ask questions about what they are doing here instead of going to Donets to help their families.  

 

[Bulletpoint]

9 hours ago, Huba said:

A video combining a number of Switchblade strikes. it looks like it has a kind of a semi-automatic guidance where it picks a target that is in the middle of the camera and guides itself into it. Looks scary.

 

How can it be avoided that the drone locks on to civilian targets?

[Grigb]

Watching Youtube video of RU Nats RU mobilization discussion. Small fun fact - shortage of Orlans were due to production disruption.  At some point some higher ups recognized Orlan popularity and potentially big production orders. So, they ordered all robot like devices (Orlan is considered one) to include a special but not really needed part ("brick" or "candy").  Unsurprisingly the cost of "brick" was high...Oh, they guy adds that AA missile complexes also must have it!!! 

 

[Huba]

13 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Watching Youtube video of RU Nats RU mobilization discussion. Small fun fact - shortage of Orlans were due to production disruption.  At some point some higher ups recognized Orlan popularity and potentially big production orders. So, they ordered all robot like devices (Orlan is considered one) to include a special but not really needed part ("brick" or "candy").  Unsurprisingly the cost of "brick" was high...Oh, they guy adds that AA missile complexes also must have it!!! 

 

Corruption like this is hilarious, when it happens to THEM…