How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[chuckdyke]

5 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

he looks quite puffy in the face.

What we call in Australia a 'D**khead'. 

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, Grigb said:

I found the video of recent skirmish in the Gray Zone - UKR detachment discovered by RU drone, shelled by mortars and got into an ambush, coordinated by drone operator. Unfortunately, it contains UKR wounded and dead soldiers. So, I am not posting it. Instead, I am posting a short description. This is how modern skirmish between drone ready and not drone ready infantry looks like. While I was writing it the video got blocked. But anything you need to know is below. Guys from Territorial units, this is especially for you. This is what you will face because RU will unlikely to throw at you the conventional forces (NATO article 5) but will instead initiate cross border raids by hardcore volunteer units like you see below.

Thank you for taking the time to detail the fight.  The whole concept of recon is yet another casualty of this war.  It can't be fought the way it used to be and still work as intended.  Another concept out the door is "pickets".  This has been something under stress in the Donbas for years now, but now that the war is no longer constrained the problems arising from units trying to maintain static sectors of frontage is being exposed as extra vulnerable.

My guess is that in the future we're going to see a lot more in the form of remote sensors.  Ironically, I just experienced an example of this a couple of hours ago when driving into the forest along a small privately kept dirt road.  I looked over to my left and saw a motion sensor attached to a tree.  Good thing I wasn't looking to surprise anybody

And for you folks that doubt there is any value in discussing this war, know that I just put something else in my notes.

Steve

[DesertFox]

1 minute ago, chuckdyke said:

What we call in Australia a 'D**khead'. 

ROFL! 

[chuckdyke]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Another concept out the door is "pickets".

Suggest Buckingham Palace. 

[Huba]

Back to German bashing! Well not really, that won't help anybody. Their situation is not to be envied. The case of NordStream turbines shows again that Russia will use every opportunity to sow disunity in the West and try to make another precedence in breaking sanctions. They succeeded about gas payments in rubles, failed with transit through Lithuania. In this casa Canada is up to make a decision, and not being a EU country I hope they won't care about BASF profits too much and keep the dang turbines. Time to call Putin's bluff. 

 

Edited July 8, 2022 by Huba

[Beleg85]

34 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

And for you folks that doubt there is any value in discussing this war, know that I just put something else in my notes.

Steve

I registered here just for this great thread, but definitelly will buy CMBS (played only demo) in near future when additions/more scenarios will be made.

It's by far the only game on the market now that portrays largest conventional war of the century just unfolding before our eyes.

 

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/07/ukrainian-navy-special-forces-spearhead-daring-snake-island-mission/

It seems Ukrainian SF taking back the island undertook pretty complicated operation on itself just to put this flag. They used underwater vehicles and surface boats in joint, several-phased operation. It does not speak well about Russian Navy allowing them to do that...but, not many things speak well about Russian Navy in this war anyway, so it's just a standard.

Edited July 8, 2022 by Beleg85

[Artkin]

10 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

but definitelly will buy CMBS (played only demo) in near future

You can swap maps/scenarios from title to title with a little bit of work. So every new title you buy, those maps become available for all your other titles. There are some limitations but generally works fine.

[Beleg85]

19 minutes ago, Artkin said:

You can swap maps/scenarios from title to title with a little bit of work. So every new title you buy, those maps become available for all your other titles. There are some limitations but generally works fine.

Yep, thanks. I prefered WWII settings mainly because battles in CMBS are so deadly and dependant on who see whom first- which is true to reality and unfortunatelly direction of modern warfare.

This series really shines best when dealing with minor, platoon-sized battles. It would be great to see in CMBS in the future a campaign paralell to Devil's Descent- with great storytelling and small-scale infantry skirmishes. Drones, snipers, ATGM's and similar devices can flair these small encounters even more. Soldier of Ukrainian SOF or Airassault Units will have probably dozens of such stories to tell after this madness will finally come to an end.

Edited July 8, 2022 by Beleg85

[Artkin]

1 minute ago, Beleg85 said:

Yep, thanks. I prefered WWII settings mainly because battles in CMBS are so deadly and dependant on who see whom first- which is true to reality and unfortunatelly direction of modern warfare.

This series really shines best when dealing with minor, platoon-sized battles. It would be great to see in CMBS in the future a campaign paralell to Devil's Descent- with great storytelling and small-scale infantry skirmishes. Ukrainian SOF or Airborne Units will have probably dozens of such stories to tell after this madness will finally come to an end.

For sure. And when I am an old fat guy maybe I'll live to see declassified stuff :)

[dan/california]

6 hours ago, akd said:

Russia is definitely winning:

 

Even with one arm you have more to give mother Russia. Are we sure this isn't Ukrainian propaganda? Because it seems designed to make nice Russian boys run the other way as fast as humanly possible.

1 hour ago, Huba said:

Back to German bashing! Well not really, that won't help anybody. Their situation is not to be envied. The case of NordStream turbines shows again that Russia will use every opportunity to sow disunity in the West and try to make another precedence in breaking sanctions. They succeeded about gas payments in rubles, failed with transit through Lithuania. In this casa Canada is up to make a decision, and not being a EU country I hope they won't care about BASF profits too much and keep the dang turbines. Time to call Putin's bluff. 

 

A speaker on another forum I follow had truly great idea. Canada needs to very quietly tell the German government that those turbines will move at the exact moment the first AFU brigade equipped with Leo2s and Marders goes into action. It might get the German government off the ball.

Edited July 8, 2022 by dan/california

[sburke]

39 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Yep, thanks. I prefered WWII settings mainly because battles in CMBS are so deadly and dependant on who see whom first- which is true to reality and unfortunatelly direction of modern warfare.

This series really shines best when dealing with minor, platoon-sized battles. It would be great to see in CMBS in the future a campaign paralell to Devil's Descent- with great storytelling and small-scale infantry skirmishes. Drones, snipers, ATGM's and similar devices can flair these small encounters even more. Soldier of Ukrainian SOF or Airassault Units will have probably dozens of such stories to tell after this madness will finally come to an end.

once you get CMBS download this scenario.  The scenario itself is big, but the individual fights are small and there is so much depth it will boggle your mind.  It is a work of art and shows the potential for design in the editor.

CMBS Tactical Operations Center (thefewgoodmen.com)

[Huba]

What's all that talking about computer games in my war thread? 

Joking of course, I'm finally getting CMBS this month too. 

[Battlefront.com]

From today's ISW's report:

Quote

Russian Defense Ministry Spokesperson Igor Konashenkov announced on July 7 that Russian forces in Ukraine are pausing to rest and regain their combat capabilities, confirming ISW’s assessment that Russian forces have initiated an operational pause.  Konashenkov did not specify the intended length of Russian forces’ operational pause. As ISW previously assessed, Russian forces have not ceased active hostilities during this operational pause and are unlikely to do so. Russian forces still conducted limited ground offensives and air, artillery, and missile strikes across all axes on July 7.  Russian forces will likely continue to confine themselves to small-scale offensive actions as they rebuild forces and set conditions for a more significant offensive in the coming weeks or months.

Here is the official Russian source:

https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/15150167?

Obviously the Russian explanation that this is to let its forces rest and receive packages from home is BS.  They're spent and need time to rest and refit.  The big question is how long will they take to do this?  Most likely not as long as needed.  I'm guessing a week before we see clear signs of renewed "strategic" offensive.

The next question is what will Russia try to do next.  Continue with a frontal assault from the newly taken Severodonetsk side area?  Reinvest in Popasna and/or Izyum?  Try and deal with Kharkiv or with Kerson?  It's a huge front and there's a lot of options for Russia as it doesn't have the strength to fight hard in more than one place at a time.

Over the next few days we should see signs of Russians moving forces around if they are going to do something other than continuing where they left off from this week.

One would think they would stay concentrated in Donbas and once again try to take the huge amount of Donetsk Oblast that is in Ukrainian hands.  Politically this is what Russia has stated it's new strategic goals lie.  It is also where all their forces are already concentrated, therefore they don't need to be moved.  It is also where a sizeable amount of Russia's better units are motivated to fight (i.e. DLPR don't want to fight elsewhere).  So my money is on some sort of renewed offensive in the Donbas.

However, I do think they might try to try something else first or, perhaps in addition to, renewing the offensive in Donbas.  And that is Kharkiv border area.

Haiduk made a post a couple of pages ago about the investment of brand new units into the Kharkiv area even though it's fairly stabilized at the moment.  This could indicate they intend to mount a more concerted offensive in the area.  There's multiple reasons why Russia might want to attack here:

• Shorter logistics which might be safer than those in occupied Ukraine
• Possibility that Ukraine's forces in the area aren't up to handling a major assault
• Possibility of rapidly taking Ukrainian ground (i.e. PR win)
• If successful, better protecting Belgorod from Ukrainian mischief

We should know in a few days.

Steve

[Chibot Mk IX]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

This series really shines best when dealing with minor, platoon-sized battles. It would be great to see in CMBS in the future a campaign paralell to Devil's Descent- with great storytelling and small-scale infantry skirmishes. Drones, snipers, ATGM's and similar devices can flair these small encounters even more. Soldier of Ukrainian SOF or Airassault Units will have probably dozens of such stories to tell after this madness will finally come to an end.

Try this one when you get a chance

CMBS Task Force Spartan Resolve v3.0

 

 

 

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, Grey_Fox said:

Sorry, I don't have the brainpower to come up with gems like solo armoured vehicles operating without infantry support or any support in general dying to ATGMs means that tanks are obsolete. Another I interacted with was arguing that because tanks are not wunderwaffe which can defeat all threats all the time they are obsolete.

So no I don't think a whole lot of many of what can only laughingly be referred to as "contributions" in this thread.

Whelp, tried.  Dunning-Kruger wins the day.

FYI, we pretty much moved past the whole “it’s all about tanks” about 500 pages ago.  The future of tanks is the least of issues on the board right now. 

 

[keas66]

4 hours ago, Grey_Fox said:

Yes, quite frankly it is an abomination and quite ghoulish, and what's worse is that conversation about CM games has almost ceased on this forum.

Regarding lessons from this war - the only lessons have been how not to invade a country, and that armoured forces still need infantry to provide security.

Fall out of the wrong side of the bed buddy ?  Also  ... your YT channel is kind of illuminating .... Greetings Comrade !

Edited July 8, 2022 by keas66

[dan/california]

If NASSM can't shoot down Orlan 30s with semblance of efficiency,  we need to send them something that does. I don't care if the only ones in existence are five experimental models.The have biggest real test they are ever going to get is going on right now. i really think this might be the last key to let the AFU start rolling the Russians back wholesale.

 

[JonS]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

Even with one arm you have more to give mother Russia

This reminds me of the black knight scene from the holy grail. With russia as the black knight, and ukraine as Arthur.

[Battlefront.com]

Heard someone say that yesterday Ukraine confirmed it has 9 HIMARS systems in service now.  That's double what we've been talking about since the first 4 went online.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Interesting video of an attempt by Ukraine to recover a BMP-3 with a lost track while under some sort of threat from Russian forces.  They tried several times with no luck.  Another one, with less damage, was recovered and driven away.  Closed Caption in English.

 

[Battlefront.com]

CNN reporting on the ground with HIMARS.  At the beginning they cover Ukraine laughing off Russia's claim of taking out two systems.  One way Ukraine is avoiding getting hit is they are keeping them on roads, firing from there, then scooting them back WAY out of reach of Russian frontline assets.

 

[chuckdyke]

49 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

BMP-3 with a lost track

Things become a lot clearer now. Donbass Region means Dumbass Region and they empty prisons to get the expertise required to hot wire enemy vehicles

[Der Zeitgeist]

11 hours ago, Rice said:

 The reality is no one in the consumer base would actually care if they released the planned module or other planned modules during the conflict. 

I completely disagree. All it takes is one ignorant article in a tabloid or wherever and BFC could be in a world of hurt. Selling DLC with a Russian campaign that lets the consumer play the Invasion of Ukraine might even be construed as supporting a war of aggression in some countries (like Germany), which could lead to serious legal troubles, a ban on sales, or anything else that a small company wouldn't want to take a chance with.

[Battlefront.com]

11 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

I completely disagree. All it takes is one ignorant article in a tabloid or wherever and BFC could be in a world of hurt. Selling DLC with a Russian campaign that lets the consumer play the Invasion of Ukraine might even be construed as supporting a war of aggression in some countries (like Germany), which could lead to serious legal troubles, a ban on sales, or anything else that a small company wouldn't want to take a chance with.

For sure.

There's a big difference having something that has been on sale for years continue to be for sale vs. releasing something brand new.  Same big difference between having an already existing product go on sale with all the other products of a company vs. having a sale for a specific product. 

We are doing nothing to use this war to our financial advantage.  Releasing new content at this time or specifically promoting CMBS would.  It's not only bad business, I think it's immoral.  I'd sooner delete the 98% done Module for CMBS, pissing away months of work we've already paid for, rather than release it under these circumstances.

Sorry to disappoint some of you fans, but we do indeed have scruples.

Steve

[FancyCat]

a twitter reply says the Toplovsky monastery is in Crimea, sounds pretty likely this man is from Crimea.