How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Machor]

Flesh+Blood (+steel) to the grinder:

Ukrainian volunteers joining the Russian ranks in Melitopol:

Orenburg Cossacks have been brought to the Ukrainian border; will go in after signing contracts:

Russia's reply to the artillery being supplied to Ukraine (I'm seeing 2A36s and D-30s):

 

[asurob]

57 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Why untrained? Russia has enough retired contractors and former conscript servicemen, enough veterans of local conflicts - yes, they already 30-35-40+, but have enough experience. Also many different paramilitary groups, like cossacks (most of them just clowns in WWI style uniform, but they aren't infantil millenials). If Putin claimed mobilization, I wonder, how much of those 74% Russians, which now support the war will go to enlist offices. Or they will hide, bribe and run away to Georgia, Armenia, Kazahsyan, India etc. to avoid the war. Because one matter to shout from own armchear "Go, boys! Destroy this fascist ukies!" and other matter to turn out in dirty and bloody trench under fire.   

By the way I heard that average age of UKR army also not too young - 30-35 years. 

Well I wasn't really referencing age as much as fitness.  When I left the military (Navy) I went to the AF reserve for a short time because I didn't really want to leave, but the Navy wasn't great for having a family.  The difference in fitness levels between active and reserve was frightening.  

As I faintly recall there were some US Army National Guard units not deployed to the Gulf war (91) because they were judge not fit for combat.  I understand the US Army is a professional service with vastly different standards then the Russians, but I really can't see reserve units helping the cause other than catching bullets reserved for combat field units.  

Will they learn under fire...sure...but the will get plenty bloody and we have already seen how effective broken Russian combat units are...

[asurob]

4 minutes ago, Machor said:

Flesh+Blood (+steel) to the grinder:

Ukrainian volunteers joining the Russian ranks in Melitopol:

This kinda illustrates my point.  These are mostly dead men.  Hardly a combat ready unit.

[asurob]

59 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

 

The counter to this is that Putin has not declared war up to this point because he fears doing so will do... something he doesn't want.  Not exactly sure, but something. Otherwise the failure to mobilize is completely illogical.

There is also one direct drawback to declaring war against Ukraine.  Most likely Ukraine would declare war on Russia and that means open season on Russian infrastructure by artillery, missiles, drones, special ops, air forces, cyber, etc.  Putin should be aware that this will not be good for Russian confidence in his leadership.

Steve

Thanks for the thoughtful response...helps me understand the whys.  I am inclined to believe that Putin let his ego write a lot of checks.  And it's coming back in spades...when you are going broke and you try to spend your way out of it you get the expected results.  That's what it looks like to me at least.  I believe we are already seeing more than a few "spontaneous" accidents of strategic sites in the motherland...would he declare war that would accelerate those incidents.  

[MSBoxer]

2 minutes ago, asurob said:

Well I wasn't really referencing age as much as fitness.  When I left the military (Navy) I went to the AF reserve for a short time because I didn't really want to leave, but the Navy wasn't great for having a family.  The difference in fitness levels between active and reserve was frightening.  

As I faintly recall there were some US Army National Guard units not deployed to the Gulf war (91) because they were judge not fit for combat.  I understand the US Army is a professional service with vastly different standards then the Russians, but I really can't see reserve units helping the cause other than catching bullets reserved for combat field units.  

Will they learn under fire...sure...but the will get plenty bloody and we have already seen how effective broken Russian combat units are...

A few other questions concerning RU reservists.

If the active duty forces were so severely impacted by shortages due to corruption and falsified readiness reports, how bad are the reservists going to be?

How long will it take to train them up to even the low standards of active duty forces concerning unit cohesion?

[Vacillator]

2 minutes ago, MSBoxer said:

How long will it take to train them up to even the low standards of active duty forces concerning unit cohesion?

And even equip them properly.  The guy in the back row is probably wondering about that, unless he just chose a bad time to try 'photo-bombing'.

 

[Machor]

"Waste the Ukrops (derogatory term for Ukrainian soldiers, but I am now seeing it being employed for all Ukrainians)"

"I didn't know."

[Battlefront.com]

Two articles from Radio Free Europe.  The first is about what the Russians are planning on for the captured territory (i.e. fake republic) and the second is a good interview with some Ukrainian soldiers in the east:

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-fake-referendums-russia-draft-document/31828617.html

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukrainian-soldiers-say-russian-troops-look-desperate-in-battle-for-donetsk-region/31827295.html

Steve

[Huba]

The distressing thought about the idea of Russians mobilizing and  trying to make up for their Army's low quality is that because of madman making the decisions, they may actually try to do that. 

[Combatintman]

6 minutes ago, MSBoxer said:

A few other questions concerning RU reservists.

If the active duty forces were so severely impacted by shortages due to corruption and falsified readiness reports, how bad are the reservists going to be?

How long will it take to train them up to even the low standards of active duty forces concerning unit cohesion?

In simple terms ... decidedly average.  Now that is a sweeping statement because the army is a broad church in which some jobs require more current knowledge than others but, if the professionals are gash then it is a fair assumption that the reservists will be totally gash.

[Ultradave]

Regarding the HQ artillery strike. The 200m scale marker helps. That's definitely a wide dispersal. No idea why. If our FOs reported something like that and we were sending firing data for a normal sheaf (same data for each gun), as the FDO I'd ask the XO and Smoke (Chief of Firing Battery - senior NCO on the gun line - usually an E7) to go check each gun's survey. When you survey in the battery, you are doing it so no matter where on the ground each gun is they are all pointing EXACTLY the same direction. Doesn't take being off by much to get really lousy results at the blowy uppy end of things.

If the individual guns are dispersed by such a wide range as that on the ground, then individual data would need to be calculated for each one, not for the battery as a whole, which is based, as I mentioned before on #3, in the middle.

Interesting, but probably will remain a mystery. After all this talk, I bet the answer is super simple.

 

Dave

[The Steppenwulf]

23 minutes ago, asurob said:

The counter to this is that Putin has not declared war up to this point because he fears doing so will do... something he doesn't want.  Not exactly sure, but something. Otherwise the failure to mobilize is completely illogical.

The problem anticipated is that national conscription is likely to have the vast majority failing to turn up for the roll call. Then it becomes a massive internal issue for Putin because failure to comply is 2 years in prison. Not exactly good publicity for your war when men are being rounded up and thrown in prison camps by the tens of thousands. The reality is that it becomes quickly unenforceable

It turns into a massive headache for a regime that is actually quite fragile. Its fragility is evidenced by the sheer amount of controls and restrictions being exercised over the population, extreme propaganda etc. Thus declaring martial law could signal the beginning of the end for the regime and explains why it is a huge dilemma for Putin, a real "Rubicon" event.
 

Edited May 1, 2022 by The Steppenwulf

[Battlefront.com]

13 minutes ago, MSBoxer said:

A few other questions concerning RU reservists.

If the active duty forces were so severely impacted by shortages due to corruption and falsified readiness reports, how bad are the reservists going to be?

How long will it take to train them up to even the low standards of active duty forces concerning unit cohesion?

I read a very detailed analysis of Russian reservists somewhere at some point.  I don't have a clue where, sorry!  However, the big takeaway is that they do not have much in the way of refresher training, which is mandatory with US Reserves.  In theory they have this sort of thing too, but in reality it appears to be highly "Russian" in that it's half arsed and inconsistent.  IIRC the report I read said some Russian reservists had gone 4 YEARS without any sort of official engagement.  It is also a sure bet that individuals can bribe their way out of having to do refresher duty.

The other issue with Russian reservists is that they might have only had 2 years of service.  Compare this with the average US soldier, which is probably around 4 years with huge numbers being double or triple that.

What I'm getting at here is that Russia's active duty soldiers aren't all that great so retired ones aren't likely to be lower quality than that.  Not as bad as conscripts, but maybe not effectively any better.

Steve

 

[Vanir Ausf B]

2 hours ago, TheVulture said:

 

 

Nice work!

I count exactly 40 dots...

[Battlefront.com]

. 

Quote

Social media sites in Russia appeared to confirm Gerasimov had indeed been wounded, most accounts stemming from a public post by Russian political scientist Valery Solovei, who said: “Gerasimov received a shrapnel wound in the upper third of the right shin without a bone fracture. The fragment was removed, there is no danger to [his] life.”

Also reporting that TWO separate command posts were hit; 2nd Army and linked to an VDV force (likely the 76th)

https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/ukraine-says-russia-army-top-general-wounded-in-command-post-strike-dozens-killed.html

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, The Steppenwulf said:

The problem anticipated is that national conscription is likely to have the vast majority failing to turn up for the roll call. Then it becomes a massive internal issue for Putin because failure to comply is 2 years in prison. Not exactly good publicity for your war when men are being rounded up and thrown in prison camps by the tens of thousands. The reality is that it is becomes quickly uninforceable

It turns into a massive headache for a regime that is actually quite fragile. Its fragility is evidenced by the sheer amount of controls and restrictions being exercised over the population, extreme propaganda etc. Thus declaring martial law could signal the beginning of the end for the regime and explains why it is a huge dilemma for Putin, a real "Rubicon" event.
 

Yes.  Like any government, you have to know when and when not to push.  If you are going to push, you had better be prepared to enforce whatever it is you're pushing.  If Russia puts out a mobilization call for 200,000 soldiers and only 50,000 come in voluntarily... oh boy, now what?  Heck, even if 75% show up, the tens of thousands of draft dodgers spread out over the entire country would be an incredible problem for Putin's security forces.  Yet not enforcing the draft isn't an option.  He also can't have people thinking his regime will go soft on the dodgers.

Steve

[The Steppenwulf]

34 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yet not enforcing the draft isn't an option.  He also can't have people thinking his regime will go soft on the dodgers.

Precisely!

Civil disruption may well be uncontained and widespread and state propaganda might not be able to deal with a crisis like this to continue controlling the narrative. This just adds to Putin's problems instead of its intended purpose; solving his manpower issue.

Edited May 1, 2022 by The Steppenwulf

[Fenris]

Clip of UR-77 demo charge going off. I think Haiduk posted a pic of the building afterwards up thread.

It detonates around the 1:40 mark.  Anyone know details of the explosive charge used?

 

[sburke]

2 hours ago, asurob said:

Further, and I get a lot of this is for the home audience...I keep reading how he is going to declare war against NATO...or things along this line.

 

declaring war on NATO as opposed to just officially declaring the assault on Ukraine a war has further complications for Russia.  The relationship to Turkey is already strained though there are still some ties.  Those go out the window unless Turkey is going to just trash its NATO membership.  The Black Sea is currently dominated by Russia but if Turkey is now considered an enemy Russia may have to get more circumspect.  Turkey could also just cut off Russian commercial shipping into the Black Sea. 

[billbindc]

5 hours ago, DesertFox said:

Uups...

 

 

That video is from 2014 or there abouts. Be wary of Telenko. Some of his stuff is quite good but lots of it is pretty risible. His recent thread on the state of the Russian nuclear forces is dorm room weed session bad.

[Kinophile]

The realy fascinating thing about all these Russian top-flight Big Nobbaz getting whacked is that here are almost none on the UKR side. I know why, we all know why >:}, but surely, this far in, the RUS would have hit someone above say, company level. Statistically, there should at least have been sone kind of strike, even if no kills. I mean, UKR have managed to harm the equivalent of Gen. Milley....

But nope - tumbleweeds.

Gerasimov must be thinking on this every time his leg bothers him.

Edited May 1, 2022 by Kinophile

[sburke]

2 minutes ago, billbindc said:

That video is from 2014 or there abouts. Be wary of Telenko. Some of his stuff is quite good but lots of it is pretty risible. His recent thread on the state of the Russian nuclear forces is dorm room weed session bad.

Just for confirmation, that is supposed to represent a bad thing right?  Does he have the Grateful Dead as background music for it?  Like wow..   Is he with the Bolos or the Bozos?

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

BTW, just so you'z all know'z... I previously suggested keeping an eye on the Canadian Ukrainian Volunteer Twitter feed.  I've had a bit of a gnawing suspicion lately that maybe it's not as it seems.  The "bicycle" story got me very suspicious.  I poked around and I'm certainly not the only one.

Here's a thread discussing doubts.  Some of the doubts are just... well... wrong, but overall there's enough to be suspicious about.  If you should keep checking in on the account (I intend to for a bit longer) just be aware that anything that isn't easily verifiable should be treated with skepticism:

My general feeling it that, like the #WindsofChange dude, any "there I was...in the Congo" folks are probably horse****.

[danfrodo]

48 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yes.  Like any government, you have to know when and when not to push.  If you are going to push, you had better be prepared to enforce whatever it is you're pushing.  If Russia puts out a mobilization call for 200,000 soldiers and only 50,000 come in voluntarily... oh boy, now what?  Heck, even if 75% show up, the tens of thousands of draft dodgers spread out over the entire country would be an incredible problem for Putin's security forces.  Yet not enforcing the draft isn't an option.  He also can't have people thinking his regime will go soft on the dodgers.

Steve

This all gets into how utterly F-d Putin is militarily.  Probably politically and economically also, though he's certainly hoping to pull a rabbit out of a hat in those areas.  He was so confident of an easy, swift coup-type takeover that he simply didn't plan for, or even consider, what happens if his plan fails.

Militarily, he can't raise new army w/o threat of widespread political consequences.  His current army is completely inadequate and might fold up under UKR pressure within weeks from now.   UKR grows stronger while he is being bled white.  And he can't reverse that w/o consequences that make things worse. 

But hey, he's well recognized for being a genius.  By another prominent genius.  So all is good.

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, billbindc said:

My general feeling it that, like the #WindsofChange dude, any "there I was...in the Congo" folks are probably horse****.

Yup.  Previously things had been vague, short, and plausible (though he started posting a LOT more, and that was suspicious).  Then all of a sudden we get a creative writing assignment type narrative.  I would have expected something much more direct and less detailed if it was real. 

Steve