How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[chrisl]

35 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Before drones there was a reasonable assumption that vehicles could park for short periods of time and not be at significant risk as long as LOS was blocked from ground level.  Blocked from air if the enemy is actively patrolling with aircraft.  Drones has changed this.

Now a column of vehicles can be engaged any time, any where, no matter what the conditions are.  Whether it be on the move or parked.  All the enemy has to do is have a drone follow the column and keep track of it.  Artillery can be timed to fire at a particular point if the column appears to have a fairly steady path/speed.  If the column is approaching friendly positions there can be ambush teams sent out to engage them before they get a chance to tactically deploy or at least redeploy tactical AT assets to be ready for them.  If the drone is armed it can blast the first vehicle in the column at a location that artillery is already zeroed in on and ready to FFE.  If the column stops at any point along the way the drone operator can watch for signs they might stay there for a bit (crew getting out to take a leak, for example) and have the artillery dial in on that location.  And if there's no other assets available then an armed drone can destroy one vehicle and sow chaos amongst the rest.

The list goes on and on and on.

The most disruptive aspect of all of this is the distances involved.  With medium range artillery at a reasonable distance behind the front we're talking about a 10km danger zone for a column approaching an enemy's frontline positions.  That is well out of range of any direct fire AT system (SPGs don't count in my view) and it is also not hindered by LOS issues.

What this means is that drones have effectively pushed the "rear" of a frontline situation out about 2x further out than it traditionally was AND dramatically increased the chance of detection and destruction within that area.

Steve

You know and understand all that.  I know and understand all that.  

What I don't get is why the Russians don't seem to have picked up on it. 

And it's not just the drones. There are a lot of spaceborne systems making it easier to decide where to send the drones - coverage is way better than people realize.  And various aircraft monitoring much of Ukraine and the BS from just outside the border and able to locate and identify RF transmissions with high accuracy, and do radar (and maybe lidar) maps at impressively low levels.

[The Steppenwulf]

7 hours ago, Huba said:

That's interesting. It was officialy stated that we "mostly" gave away the unmodernized ones. Anyway we had at most around 100 of R version, so technically the statement was still true...

Those that went to Iraq in the 90s as complete, or later as spare parts.

Edited May 2, 2022 by The Steppenwulf

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Well, at 30km then we're back to the more logical conclusion that building was hit by a TB2 strike and not artillery. 

About drone usage, there was interesting interview of Aerorozvidka volunteer UAV unit commader. There is no need to give all text here in Ukrainan, so main things:

- Ukrainan units have huge advantage in tactical drones of close and average zone. He says in some moments about half-dozen of DJI or AUTEL drones can fly over battelfield. Russians have small drones like Granat and Zala, but only in special units like recons, when UKR units sometime have commercial drones even on the level of mech.platoon (but most usual of course are recons, AT-teams, HQs, mortars etc). In avarage class we are using Leleka-100, Furia and PD-1, they all have about 50-100 km of range and 1,5-2 hours of endurance.

- But the main problem - Russia has huge advantage in operative level drones. This is about Orlan-10. It can fly 16 hours and sneak up to 600 km in autonomous mode (120 km in guiding mode). It can carry various equipment - optic, thermal, ELINT, SIGINT, EW. New modification, which was adopted since 2017 alraedy has 5500 m of ceiling instead 5000 m, its control lines became more stable for EW, so UKR forces have minimal chances to shot down or to hijack new version of Orlan-10 if the weather is clear and Orlan flies over 5000 m. Even our newest EW systems often can't do nothing. Our commander said Orlans is hovering like a bees over battlefield and monitoring situation on battlefierld almost all 24 hours. This caused many problems on open terrain, because Russian HQs get information and transmit it to artillery

- TB2 Bayraktars became to use mostly for recon missions and don't approach to frontline too close. Since the war became more positional, Russians deployed many AD assets like TOR and Pantsyr, which dangerous for TB2. Today's operation near Zmiinyi island became possible only after destroying of Moskva cruiser (huge floating SAM platform) and destroying of AD assets on the island. But on the other hand TB2 already several times used for strikes against facilities on Russian territory. 2 or 3 TB2 were shot down. 

- Other problem the same both of UKR and RUS - low integration level of drones to weapon systems and information systems of battle control, especially for close zone drones. For example, only Furia can make targeting and automatic fire adjustment. Other drones can maintain only visual adjustment and if you need to know coordinates with better accuracy than "on eye" from the screen, you should return drone back, take a memory card and visually match the image with a map.     

Edited May 2, 2022 by Haiduk

[panzermartin]

7 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

About drone usage, there was interesting intersting interview of Aerorozvidka volunteer UAV unit commader. There is no need to give all taext here in Ukrainan, so main things:

- Ukrainan units have huge advantage in tactical drones of close and avarage zone. He says in some moments about half-dozen of DJI or AUTEL drones can fly over battelfield. Russians have small drones like Granat and Zala, but only in special units like recons, when UKR units sometime have commercial drones even on the level of mech.platoon (but most usual of course are recons, AT-teams, HQs, mortars etc). In avarage class we are using Leleka-100, Furia and PD-2, they all have about 50-100 km of range and 1,5-2 hours of endurance.

- But the main problem - Russian has huge advantage in operative level drones. This is about Orlan-10. It can fly 16 hours and sneak up to 600 km in autonomous mode (120 km in guiding mode). It can carry various equipment - optic, thermal, ELINT, SIGINT, EW. New modification, which was adopted since 2017 alraedy has 5500 m of ceiling instead 5000 m, its control lines became more stable for EW, so UKR forces have minimal chances to shot down or to hijack new version of Orlan-10 if the weather is clear and Orlan flies over 5000 m. Even our newest EW systems often can't do nothing. Our commander said Orlans is hovering like a bees over battlefield and monitoring situation on battlefierld almost all 24 hours. This caused many problems on open terrain, because Russian HQs get information and transmit it to artillery

- TB2 Bayraktars became to use mostly for recon missions and don't approach to frontline too close. Since the war became more positional, Russians deployed many AD assets like TOR and Pantsyr, which dangerous for TB2. Today's operation near Zmiinyi island became possible only after destroying of Moskva cruiser (huge floating SAM platform) and destroying of AD assets on the island. But on the other hand TB2 already several times used for strikes against facilities on Russian territory. 2 or 3 TB2 were shot down. 

- Other problem the same both of UKR and RUS - low integration level of drones to weapon systems and information systems of battle control, especially for close zone drones. For example, only Furia can make targeting and automatic fire adjustment. Other drones can maintain only visual adjustment and if you need to know coordinates with better accuracy than "on eye" from the screen, you should return drone back, take a memory card and visually match the image with a map.     

Thanks, great insight on the war of the drones over Ukraine. 

[Kinophile]

Interestingly, it seems that drones are still not as integrated at the Co/Plt level as we might expect. It is still a specialist (ie reserved for special/support weapons) asset. There are obvious reasons for this with UKR but it suggests that the military that gets drones down to a granular level and has them properly incorporated into tactics and integrated into FCS/BMS will have an advantage on par with thermals v. a non-drone'd (non thermal) unit.

This tactical level advantage could have implications, where a plt could have its own dedicated fire support, even down to a single gun in a smart battery constantly, in real time, receiving the Plt's drone's targeting solutions as the Plt maneuvers. This would reduce TOT drastically and significantly increase the plt's effective combat power. You wouldn't need to call up an MBT to take out that 2-story corner brick structure, or that MG hidden in the hen house.

Often in CMBS urban fights Ive taken smaller, 3-gun batteries and assigned them per platoon. Hell, i've even gone squad level. Modern ATGM system are so lethal, and in-game UKR spotting so bad, that I've become very leery of bringing my pretty UKR BTR4s forward.

Edited May 2, 2022 by Kinophile

[MikeyD]

About operational-level drones, lets not forget that Ukraine apparently has access to, or at least benefits from, US platforms such as RQ-4 Global Hawk. Intel sharing is not the same as owning your own but at least Ukraine is not entirely lacking on that front.

[Battlefront.com]

29 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

About drone usage, there was interesting interview of Aerorozvidka volunteer UAV unit commader. There is no need to give all taext here in Ukrainan, so main things:

- Ukrainan units have huge advantage in tactical drones of close and average zone. He says in some moments about half-dozen of DJI or AUTEL drones can fly over battelfield. Russians have small drones like Granat and Zala, but only in special units like recons, when UKR units sometime have commercial drones even on the level of mech.platoon (but most usual of course are recons, AT-teams, HQs, mortars etc). In avarage class we are using Leleka-100, Furia and PD-1, they all have about 50-100 km of range and 1,5-2 hours of endurance.

- But the main problem - Russia has huge advantage in operative level drones. This is about Orlan-10. It can fly 16 hours and sneak up to 600 km in autonomous mode (120 km in guiding mode). It can carry various equipment - optic, thermal, ELINT, SIGINT, EW. New modification, which was adopted since 2017 alraedy has 5500 m of ceiling instead 5000 m, its control lines became more stable for EW, so UKR forces have minimal chances to shot down or to hijack new version of Orlan-10 if the weather is clear and Orlan flies over 5000 m. Even our newest EW systems often can't do nothing. Our commander said Orlans is hovering like a bees over battlefield and monitoring situation on battlefierld almost all 24 hours. This caused many problems on open terrain, because Russian HQs get information and transmit it to artillery

- TB2 Bayraktars became to use mostly for recon missions and don't approach to frontline too close. Since the war became more positional, Russians deployed many AD assets like TOR and Pantsyr, which dangerous for TB2. Today's operation near Zmiinyi island became possible only after destroying of Moskva cruiser (huge floating SAM platform) and destroying of AD assets on the island. But on the other hand TB2 already several times used for strikes against facilities on Russian territory. 2 or 3 TB2 were shot down. 

- Other problem the same both of UKR and RUS - low integration level of drones to weapon systems and information systems of battle control, especially for close zone drones. For example, only Furia can make targeting and automatic fire adjustment. Other drones can maintain only visual adjustment and if you need to know coordinates with better accuracy than "on eye" from the screen, you should return drone back, take a memory card and visually match the image with a map.     

Excellent information, thanks!

One thing that Ukraine has that isn't mentioned is NATO monitoring assets.  I highly suspect there might be some US drones in the air as well.

However, I am not surprised that Russia has a superiority of operational level drones.  They are expensive and Russia clearly invested the money into them.  Though it seems they've lost quite a few and it doesn't look like new production is possible for a while.

Here's a good article on the Orlan and some observations based on an example shot down in 2016

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2022/04/11/russias-deadly-artillery-drones-have-a-strange-secret/?sh=32a3de55779d

Honestly, I would rather have a superior edge on tactical drones than operational.  Especially the way Russia is fighting this war.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Lyman is under direct attack now. This is the 'outer crust' of the Sloviansk perimeter.

It was bound to happen.  Whether Russia still has delusions of a larger operation or not, taking Lyman is smart.  It is a defensible line that also puts Russia right next to Slovyansk (artillery, drones, etc.).  And there's not much Ukraine can do to keep it either.

The old saying is there's nothing in war harder than withdrawing under enemy pressure.  There's probably nothing harder within that paradigm than withdrawing from a bridgehead under enemy pressure.  Ukraine's got a tough situation to sort out, that's for sure.

On the plus side, Russia doesn't really gain much by taking Lyman.  The terrain is terrible and it's on the wrong side of the river to cause significant threat to Ukraine's main line of defense.

Steve

[db_zero]

Bottom line is Ukraine will always be 1-2 steps ahead of the Russians. The OODA loop is clearly in favor of Ukraine. This is something that Russia can't fix on the fly. It would take years of re-organization, training and investment.

Russia will just have to plod along slowly and use massive indiscriminate firepower, because that's all they have and all they can do.

Just waiting to see what happens on the 9th to see if Russia does fully mobilize and tosses more cannon fodder into the meat grinder.

Edited May 2, 2022 by db_zero

[akd]

Ukrainian tank attacking, then taking a hit while withdrawing:

 

[Battlefront.com]

Russian propaganda is now trying to, once again, move the goalposts for their "special military operation".  According to Solovyov there's no rush and Russia has time to find its rhythm.  The usual stuff about Ukrainians just being a flock of stray Russian sheep that the evil West is trying to take from sweet Mother Russia is there for added humor:

 

[Haiduk]

15 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

About operational-level drones, lets not forget that Ukraine apparently has access to, or at least benefits from, US platforms such as RQ-4 Global Hawk. Intel sharing is not the same as owning your own but at least Ukraine is not entirely lacking on that front.

RQ-4 is strategic level. It flights there and back again 1-2 times per day. Orlans fly continously and transmit operative and tactical level situation to brigade/divisional HQs  

[kraze]

Their propaganda will have a hard time beating Lavrov's "Hitler was a jew" that made even Israel angry

[LongLeftFlank]

3 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

 

I don't know this guy's sources very well yet, so... bread and salt.

Video a week old but shows terrain....

 

 

Edited May 2, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Battlefront.com]

Another one for the fire trackers out there:

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, kraze said:

Their propaganda will have a hard time beating Lavrov's "Hitler was a jew" that made even Israel angry

First thing I thought of when I saw quotes of Lavrov was "gee, I wonder if the Israelis will think a bit harder about their relationship with Putin".

Steve

[Haiduk]

10 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

 

 

Olexandrivka and nearby Shandryholove already two days under attacks. There are no "breaches". Our troops is winning a time defending villages 2-3 days and withrawing to next. Obviously we will withdraw behind Siverskyi Donets, because Russians have too big advantage.   

Locals write UKR troops abandoned Yampil in the night on 1st of May

There is no street clashes in Lyman, but the town is heavy shelled with Russian artilery

Edited May 2, 2022 by Haiduk

[akd]

Longer version of UAV feed for strike on Sulyhivka:

 

[Huba]

16 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

 

 

So it seems that Russians might be able to more or less reach the Donets along it's whole length north of Sloviansk. I can't imagine them trying to cross the river in face of UA resistance, but it gives them a relatively safe, very defendable continuous line of defence between Kreminna and Izium. With that secured, I'd think that most of the forces will be shifted to Izium to continue the push from there. Will they be able to do it, or are those units already too depleted to make a difference there? 

Edited May 2, 2022 by Huba

[The_Capt]

26 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Another one for the fire trackers out there:

 

 

[Kinophile]

Does  that NASA satellite track fires in Russia proper? That would be an interesting pass...

[sburke]

18 minutes ago, Huba said:

So it seems that Russians might be able to more or less reach the Donets along it's whole length north of Sloviansk. I can't imagine them trying to cross the river in face of UA resistance, but it gives them a relatively safe, very defendable continuous line of defence between Kreminna and Izium. With that secured, I'd think that most of the forces will be shifted to Izium to continue the push from there. Will they be able to do it, or are those units already too depleted to make a difference there? 

If I were the Russians I'd be looking over my shoulder.  Based on what @akd posted earlier, the UKR seems to be making some headway into their rear.   Staryi Saltiv is only 26 km from Vovchan'sk which is likely a very critical supply route for the Izium offensive.

 

 

Edited May 2, 2022 by sburke

[Battlefront.com]

19 minutes ago, akd said:

Longer version of UAV feed for strike on Sulyhivka:

The amount of shell craters is mind boggling.  Thousands of rounds expended for such a small area.  I wonder how much of it was from Russian guns when taking the town and how much by Ukraine to disrupt their advance.  I wish we had time lapse satellite images available to us.

Steve

[chrisl]

2 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Does  that NASA satellite track fires in Russia proper? That would be an interesting pass...

It tracks hot spots worldwide.

https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#d:24hrs;@13.7,0.0,3z

You can even select what bands you're interested in.  I normally use it to keep track of forest fires in CA and OR.

[danfrodo]

So some advances toward Slovyansk by RU.  But as pointed out above, the terrain gets increasingly bad beyond Lyman, so would be even harder to keep going there. 

Meanwhile, there's report of big UKR advances NE of Kharkiv.  Any of you have any thoughts on what could be achieved NE/E of kharkiv to unhinge RU forces from Izyum and the Lyman fronts?  I am of course hoping for full Romanian collapse (ooops, donetz milita, not romanian collapse -- weird I keep making that mistake......)