How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[JonS]

5 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

“look busy, don’t die” looks to be the main scheme of manoeuvre here.

Gold. Although I'm not sure what the CI would make of it on a TEWT.

Edited May 2, 2022 by JonS

[Haiduk]

4 hours ago, FancyCat said:

I don't think Snake Island is too terribly important

It's really "terribly important". As a part of continent it allows to move our economic zome further to the sea - during contest with Romania for the shelf, reach of natural gas, we proved in Internatinal Arbitration that Zmiinyi (Snake) is a continent, not a rock, as Romania insisted - this allowed to achieve decision, wich kept most part of the claimed shelf as Ukrainain economical zone

Zmiinyi also situates nearby close to traffic routes to our ports and not only ours. So, whoever conrols Zmiinyi, controls shipping to the the Black Sea and Danube ports. Radar, AD/artillery assets, small base for patrol ships - all this can provide this island.  

[DesertFox]

 

 

 

 

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, c3k said:

Why is everyone assuming this was a tube-fired mission? Based on the timing and pattern, I maintain it's a Grad/MLRS style hit.

Of course...Steve already said he thinks I'm wrong.

Artillery forensics is not my area of expertise. In fact, I fear I may know more about the Chinese housing bubble than I know about sheaf procedures.

When I posted this video, I cited words of Roman Donik, the source of video - he said this was Grad strike. And more - only part of the strike. Indeed, closest point to Zabavne is Husarivka area - about 30 km.

[akd]

Translation is not good, but very interesting document:

 

[akd]

Claim that UKR forces have pushed all the way to Staryi Saltiv NE of Kharkiv:

Yesterday there were reports of UKR troops reaching the Raion (District) boundary, so might be misinterpretation.

Edited May 2, 2022 by akd

[Huba]

And another unfortunate incident:

 

[Combatintman]

More boom, boom, boom from Ukrainian gunners.  Target is Russian troops in Sulyhivka.  The image below is Google Earth roughly oriented to the starting angle of camera:

Footage:

Google Earth placemark:

Sulyhivka.kmz

General Orientation Overview:

Strapped for time so not much analysis I'm afraid - at least one tank and between at least half a dozen and dozen AFVs, some of which being MTLB variants.

[acrashb]

10 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Ironically, Russia is going to have a whole bunch of displaced organized crime and petty criminals to deal with.

Many of whom will join or be co-opted into government and security services.  This is, after all, a kleptocracy.

[LongLeftFlank]

Heavy fighting around Oskil, with RU side sources claiming 1000 UA troops 'trapped' against the Donets river.

However, it appears the 81 Brigade withdrew.

Oh, and note:  Sviatohyrsk, and that forested hill I keep rabbiting on about....

The brigade walked 12 kilometres (7.5 miles) Saturday, camouflaged in the woods and under crossfire, until their point of retreat at Sviatoguirsk.

For a month, the 81st -- whose motto is "always first" -- battled to push back the Russian advance in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region where Moscow's troops move forward slowly, taking villages one by one... At the start of the war, they spent a month defending Izium, which fell on April 1, before joining the fighting around the village of Oleksandrivka.

"Everyone understands that we must guard the line here, we cannot let the enemy move closer, we try to hold it with all our force," says lieutenant Yevgen Samoylov, anxious that the unit could be hit by Russian fire at any point.

"As you can hear, the enemy is very, very near," he says, pointing to the sky. The line of Russian tanks is on the other side of a hill, around seven kilometres (4.3 miles) away.

At 21 years old, Samoylov, an officer from the Odessa military academy, finds himself managing 130 conscripts, often twice his age.

When the convoy passes a truck loaded with long-range missiles dashing to the front, the soldiers automatically make a "V" sign for victory with their fingers before fixing their gaze once more on their feet or the horizon in silence.

Soldiers cannot use their phones on the front, and any application that requires geolocation is banned.

Oh, and 5 days after entering it, the RA finally secures Yampil (SE of Lyman). For all the good it seems it will do them....

 

I don't know this guy's sources very well yet, so... bread and salt.

Edited May 2, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Haiduk]

31 minutes ago, akd said:

Translation is not good, but very interesting document:

Translation errors:

Not a company of CBRN, but flamethrower squad of flamethrower platoon of divisional CBRN comapny

? - ПАН (PAN means Peredovoy AviaNavodchik)- FAC

 

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

I thought these things cost something like a few million.

When the Czech Republic was getting rid of most of their Soviet hardware in the early 2000s you could purchase a "running condition" T-72 for $35,000 with shipping to the US running about $3,000.  Older tanks (I think they had some T-64 and T-55s) were less expensive.  The MGs were stripped off, the breach welded shut, and the barrel filled.  BRDMs were not that much less expensive because fewer of them and more practical to own (i.e. smaller, easier to work on, and can drive on roads).  BMPs were in that price range as well.

I almost went for it.  Just didn't quite have the disposable cash to purchase 2 tanks (one for parts) and a $100,000 kitted out enclosed shop to keep the good one running

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

31 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

More boom, boom, boom from Ukrainian gunners.  Target is Russian troops in Sulyhivka.  The image below is Google Earth roughly oriented to the starting angle of camera:

Footage:

Google Earth placemark:

Sulyhivka.kmz 694 B · 0 downloads

General Orientation Overview:

Strapped for time so not much analysis I'm afraid - at least one tank and between at least half a dozen and dozen AFVs, some of which being MTLB variants.

'Dan' has your 6 (second tweet)

I hope @Battlefront.com doesn't mind me leaking a Level 5 screenshot of the CM Engine 3 here....

Ivan just doesn't *do* tactical dispersion, do he?

Edited May 2, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, c3k said:

Why is everyone assuming this was a tube-fired mission? Based on the timing and pattern, I maintain it's a Grad/MLRS style hit.

Yup, and I've said the same thing since the start.  No way would Ukrainian tube gunners be that inaccurate unless on purpose (which I don't see much point to).  Grad is the far more likely artillery used.

Except for the one round that hit the building   I also suspect that particular howitzer fired off at least 3 dumb rounds which impacted near the building, but not smack dab in it.

As UltraDave said, coordinating multiple types of artillery is easy provided the FDC has solid communications set up.  If Russia were better at fighting this war that might be a limitation for a mission like this.

3 hours ago, c3k said:

Of course...Steve already said he thinks I'm wrong.

I only think you're wrong about the part you're wrong about.  The rest is spot on

Steve

[chrisl]

41 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

More boom, boom, boom from Ukrainian gunners.  Target is Russian troops in Sulyhivka.  The image below is Google Earth roughly oriented to the starting angle of camera:

 

Every time I see these videos, I think of Wrath of Khan, when Spock says "His pattern indicates two dimensional thinking".

It's as if Russian troops (and the officers, really), have no concept that they could be observed from the air and have single munitions from drones or whole artillery barrages dropped on them. And it happens over, and over, and over.  There have been a few pics of Russians trying to camouflage their vehicles, but they still leave an awful lot of them just parked in plain view.

[Battlefront.com]

46 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

Strapped for time so not much analysis I'm afraid - at least one tank and between at least half a dozen and dozen AFVs, some of which being MTLB variants.

Yeah, saw those and what might be a BDM-2.  But very hard to tell due to the level of destruction, smoke, and shaky camera.

Whatever the specifics are, this is a company sized force that has now ceased to exist.

Steve

[dan/california]

15 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

'Dan' has your 6 (second tweet)

I hope @Battlefront.com doesn't mind me leaking a Level 5 screenshot of the CM Engine 3 here....

Ivan just doesn't *do* tactical dispersion, do he?

I was going to bring that up, literally tens of thousands of casualties later, and they still park nose to tail. Is it that they are literally afraid to let people out of sight of the company commander?

[Ultradave]

One thing that has baffled me about this entire event, is the seemingly ineffective Russian counter-battery capability. Even 30 years ago we trained that you would only be able to fire a few volleys from one location before you were located by counter-battery radar and fired on.

Theoretically, the Russians have enough assets that they should be able to keep the Ukranian artillery constantly on the run. These days it should be even tougher for the enemy if you have an effective counter-battery capability. Target acquisition radar can quickly pinpoint the location of a firing battery. Assuming you (being the Russians) know that Ukrainian artillery does not have a death wish and will fire and move, fire and move, once located, drones should be sent to track/follow a displacing artillery battery.

It's much like control of the air. Control of the "artillery space" is a key element. Deny the enemy the effective use of theirs, while protecting your own. Shear numbers should help the Russians protect theirs. Until just now or soon, Ukraine doesn't really have enough to effectively counter ALL the Russian artillery.

Perhaps in some respects we are missing part of the story from the Ukraine side, as to how their artillery is faring. But Ukranian artillery SEEMS to be operating with impunity and inflicting heavy damage, while Russian artillery seems to be occupied with reducing cities, block by block and not engaged in destroying Ukraine's field combat capability.

This is the impression that comes from what reports we see. Perhaps one of you who is there might have more to say on this? I'd be interested as I don't see the Russians operating with the effectiveness that I'd been led to believe they would.

In our DIVARTY, we had a Target Acquisition Battery, whose sole mission was counter-battery target acquisition, and from what I know, Russia would also follow this same process:

1. Target located by radar (ballistic track back to source)

2. Target location passed to appropriate HQ (probably maneuver brigade TOC and it's associated artillery FSO)

3. Bn FDC gets the mission from FSO

4. Bn TOT mission on enemy battery

5. Friendly batteries displace.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

When I posted this video, I cited words of Roman Donik, the source of video - he said this was Grad strike. And more - only part of the strike. Indeed, closest point to Zabavne is Husarivka area - about 30 km.

I forgot to check on the distance once the location was geolocated!  Interesting that the uploader said "only part of the strike".

Well, at 30km then we're back to the more logical conclusion that building was hit by a TB2 strike and not artillery.  Logical because we know Ukraine has it, but we don't know if Ukraine has yet employed any smart artillery rounds.  However, I thought the explosion was too large for a TB2 strike so that's why I was favoring a smart medium caliber artillery round.

It would not be too hard to coordinate the TB2 with Grad.  All the drone operator would need to know is the estimated delivery time of the Grads to make his decision when to fire.

Let's remember that this was a planned mission, not improvised.  All kinds of possibilities are available when there's time and motivation to do something special.  Most likely Ukraine knew of this location long before they struck.  Probably waiting for confirmation that there was enough top brass present.  They would get only one shot at taking out some high valued targets.

Steve

[DesertFox]

Nice 

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

I assume this was set off by a homemade drone bomber.  Whatever the case, the traditional straight forward method of piling up ammo near a gun is another casualty of this war.

Looks like the Mystery Van will need some new windows.

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

Another riveting 2 minute battlefield drama:  death of a tank (supposedly UA) and the palpable shock and panic of its crew....

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

49 minutes ago, chrisl said:

Every time I see these videos, I think of Wrath of Khan, when Spock says "His pattern indicates two dimensional thinking".

It's as if Russian troops (and the officers, really), have no concept that they could be observed from the air and have single munitions from drones or whole artillery barrages dropped on them. And it happens over, and over, and over.  There have been a few pics of Russians trying to camouflage their vehicles, but they still leave an awful lot of them just parked in plain view.

Before drones there was a reasonable assumption that vehicles could park for short periods of time and not be at significant risk as long as LOS was blocked from ground level.  Blocked from air if the enemy is actively patrolling with aircraft.  Drones has changed this.

Now a column of vehicles can be engaged any time, any where, no matter what the conditions are.  Whether it be on the move or parked.  All the enemy has to do is have a drone follow the column and keep track of it.  Artillery can be timed to fire at a particular point if the column appears to have a fairly steady path/speed.  If the column is approaching friendly positions there can be ambush teams sent out to engage them before they get a chance to tactically deploy or at least redeploy tactical AT assets to be ready for them.  If the drone is armed it can blast the first vehicle in the column at a location that artillery is already zeroed in on and ready to FFE.  If the column stops at any point along the way the drone operator can watch for signs they might stay there for a bit (crew getting out to take a leak, for example) and have the artillery dial in on that location.  And if there's no other assets available then an armed drone can destroy one vehicle and sow chaos amongst the rest.

The list goes on and on and on.

The most disruptive aspect of all of this is the distances involved.  With medium range artillery at a reasonable distance behind the front we're talking about a 10km danger zone for a column approaching an enemy's frontline positions.  That is well out of range of any direct fire AT system (SPGs don't count in my view) and it is also not hindered by LOS issues.

What this means is that drones have effectively pushed the "rear" of a frontline situation out about 2x further out than it traditionally was AND dramatically increased the chance of detection and destruction within that area.

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

On 4/28/2022 at 9:27 AM, LongLeftFlank said:

This seems like excellent news, since the UA has time to pin out a nice deep killing zone in that open country in front of Kryva Luka.

...But let's make no mistake, the 79th lads in Yampil are buying that time with their blood.

I'll defer to those who do this for a living, but

1. my CM sense tells me the Russians are hemmed in by the Dibrova forest (there's a golf course lol!) on their right and the river (boggy ground) on their left. There's really just that *one road.* Nice bottleneck, with another fortified village (Kryva Luka) to fight through at the end of it.  Write off 1-1/2 more BTGs to get that done?

2. And then Ivan needs to cross the river.... on their current pattern, it could take them a week to even attempt it?

A quick look at the ground [loc. unconfirmed]. Note there are some elevation changes here (Seviersky Donets river valley?), in case anyone had mental pictures of featureless undulating steppelands....

 

Lyman is under direct attack now. This is the 'outer crust' of the Sloviansk perimeter.

Looks like Russians have finally figured out how to advance infantry through woods (i.e. not tied to vehicles).

But if the arrows on this map are correct, the silly buggers have also actually struck toward Kryva Luka. Coming soon to a drone video near you....

This video (second tweet -- I hate the ISW maps as they don't show terrain) shows the battlescape.

 

1980 map, but shows the key features quite clearly:

 

Edited May 2, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[db_zero]

1 hour ago, Ultradave said:

One thing that has baffled me about this entire event, is the seemingly ineffective Russian counter-battery capability. Even 30 years ago we trained that you would only be able to fire a few volleys from one location before you were located by counter-battery radar and fired on.

Theoretically, the Russians have enough assets that they should be able to keep the Ukranian artillery constantly on the run. These days it should be even tougher for the enemy if you have an effective counter-battery capability. Target acquisition radar can quickly pinpoint the location of a firing battery. Assuming you (being the Russians) know that Ukrainian artillery does not have a death wish and will fire and move, fire and move, once located, drones should be sent to track/follow a displacing artillery battery.

It's much like control of the air. Control of the "artillery space" is a key element. Deny the enemy the effective use of theirs, while protecting your own. Shear numbers should help the Russians protect theirs. Until just now or soon, Ukraine doesn't really have enough to effectively counter ALL the Russian artillery.

Perhaps in some respects we are missing part of the story from the Ukraine side, as to how their artillery is faring. But Ukranian artillery SEEMS to be operating with impunity and inflicting heavy damage, while Russian artillery seems to be occupied with reducing cities, block by block and not engaged in destroying Ukraine's field combat capability.

This is the impression that comes from what reports we see. Perhaps one of you who is there might have more to say on this? I'd be interested as I don't see the Russians operating with the effectiveness that I'd been led to believe they would.

In our DIVARTY, we had a Target Acquisition Battery, whose sole mission was counter-battery target acquisition, and from what I know, Russia would also follow this same process:

1. Target located by radar (ballistic track back to source)

2. Target location passed to appropriate HQ (probably maneuver brigade TOC and it's associated artillery FSO)

3. Bn FDC gets the mission from FSO

4. Bn TOT mission on enemy battery

5. Friendly batteries displace.

Ukraine was given C4ISR and other Command and Control assets before the war began as well as training. Combined with secure communications assets and training-something else provided the Ukrainians before the war is a huge force multiplier and allows for great agility and response times. NATO/US is also providing real time intelligence to Ukraine.

The Russian army has already demonstrated they couldn't even erect a secure communications network. I wouldn't be surprised if they are still doing things with pen/paper and using messengers. Their agility and response time is probably terrible.

I also have to wonder about Russian Air force recon capabilities, Are their recon assets still using 1980s technology where the plane has to land after a mission and have the film developed, then analyzed? That all takes time.

US/NATO aircraft have modern recon pods that can digitize images on the fly and then send them via secure communications links almost instantly to those who need the information.