How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

31 minutes ago, billbindc said:

I think the most pressing issue for that moment will be "who can we deal with that can actual deliver on an agreement." It's going to have to be someone with ties to Putin's Kremlin who knows how to operate in that space but also someone who has been off the board for a while. I could easily see one of that type coming back, Deng Xiaoping style.

I think it will come down to accountability.  If Putin is out and not turned over.  If there's no admission of guilt.  If there's no reason to think Russia is done with being the aggressor.  Well, I don't think it matters who takes over for Putin because I don't see things changing without accountability being significant.

Now, if Surkov takes over and hands Putin, Shoigu, and others up on a silver platter to the Hague (if they aren't already dead) along with dozens of lower level war criminals, well... then things get interesting.

The day that Serbia handed Milošević over to the Hague is the day it received $1 Billion in desperately needed economic aid.  This despite the fact that there was still a lot Serbia hadn't yet answered for.  And, one could argue, still hasn't.

Steve

[FancyCat]

45 minutes ago, chrisl said:

Apparently the regional government thinks that the bridge was sabotaged: AP report

It could be that someone heard the noise when it fell and thought it was an explosion, but I tend to agree with the comments so far that it looks more like bad engineering and neglect, without any real indications of pyrotechnics.  Maybe somebody used a couple of $50 bottle jacks from Harbor Freight to push the bridge off its pier.

 

 

 

Or the regional governor has a good excuse for why the local war effort is failing.... sabotage by Ukrainians is a great way at covering up their own failings, as the blame game for the performance of the Russian military and security services continues.

14 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

A united front is what they'll start out with.  Will cracks emerge if there is a sharp disagreement?  Perhaps, but I don't now how well a "it's OK to go back to business with Russia even though everybody that borders Russia says the new guy is as bad as the old guy".  It will only start to get dicey for Ukraine if they are being perceived as being unreasonable towards whomever comes after Putin.

It seems that most of Europe has come to the conclusion that decades of ignoring Russia's aggression ultimately wasn't a good idea.  I don't know how many European nations will go along with something that doesn't really hold out much hope of improvement.

Steve

Sharp disagreement? Eh....I daresay once Ukraine shocks (and I will stand by the use of "shock", I don't doubt there are still people in some sort of disbelief that crappy Ukraine is going to defeat Russia and not just be graciously allowed to retain their independence with only some land lost) the West and the World with their counteroffensive, I'm sure the calls for ceasefire will start, only this time to prevent Ukraine "unfairly" seizing the Donbas and Crimea and causing nuclear war to boot.

Germany, France, Italy are the major western powers i think may be most willing to say something.

Now, certainly I may be wrong in that the cracks will form sooner than Putin's overthrow but I still think while the influence of Russia is waning, and Ukraine is gaining, it certainly won't be long before Ukraine needs to forcibly assert that it is fighting the war, and tell the meek Western powers to shove it and that Ukraine will take back her legitimate territory, western criticism be damned. The mindset of Ukraine being a weaker power is quite entrenched and I'm not sure heroic resistance has banished all of that perception.

[Battlefront.com]

Example of a former Kyiv (west side) vehicle being redeployed east and then knocked out.  Note that the top of the cab has separated and the cab a bit mishapen.  To me it looks like they tried to drive under something too low and damaged the cab.  The door is wired shut, though Ukraine might have done that during retrieval. 

 

[Battlefront.com]

Radio Free Europe reporting on all the infrastructure problems Russia has been having lately:

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-shadow-war-russian-border-attacks/31827632.html

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Nope, I don't see any way of this ending except for the two scenarios I mentioned; Putin deposed (most likely dead) or Piranha State (aka Europe's North Korea).

Best wordo ever!

[Battlefront.com]

An attempt at tallying the BTGs which started the war and as they are now:

 

[Battlefront.com]

47 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Germany, France, Italy are the major western powers i think may be most willing to say something.

I don't know.  Public mood doesn't seem to be giving the German politicians their usual maneuver space:

 

[Taranis]

Interesting video about the reorganization of Polish tank forces with the next coming Abrams :

 

A good summary of the first phase of the war (nice to watch) :

 

[FancyCat]

26 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I don't know.  Public mood doesn't seem to be giving the German politicians their usual maneuver space:

Definitely, the pro-Ukrainian public sentiments in much of Europe, are some of the levers Ukraine can use to push for their viewpoints to be accepted but as we saw with Scholz having to spar with the leading members of his coalition government over tanks and heavy weapons to Ukraine, the viewpoints of the public majority and the government/ruling elite/business class don't always align. Its one thing to reinforce a weaker power defending vs a great power, another thing when Ukraine is about to reconquer the Donbas and Crimea.

There are still levers for Russia to pull on, economic damage from the loss of oil and gas to Europe, and one reason why I caution against the idea of Ukraine taking its sweet time mounting a counter offensive, imagine a counteroffensive is pulled off and Russia is forced to defend Crimea and Donbas, let's assume for one reason or another, Ukraine can't conquer the remaining territories in the summer without another few months of regrouping, I can see Russia cutting off Europe just in time for winter, and while measures to bulk up energy imports are proceeding, it's far too much to get cut off from to prevent economic downturns majorly in Europe. 

Russian political influence is waning, but I think economic burdens, a Ukraine seemingly paused amid a "stalemate", and a Russia switching to more of a willingness to negotiate to retain Crimea and Donbas, may allow factions of European governments to argue for Ukraine to settle. 

Now, if Ukraine gets Europe to enact the oil and gas bans first before Russian cut off, sure thats much harder for Europe to repeal the ban, than a preempt measure by Russia to force Europe to persuade Ukraine to settle. And if Ukraine can undertake the offensives needed before the economic and time passing measures bite, than not much for the West to get cold feet on.

Why I think Ukraine can't dally with retaking Kherson, once Russia starts shifting the view to holding its taken lands instead of gaining more, Ukraine needs to ensure Western support does not get meek at the idea of a long stalemate, by illustrating the capability of a Ukrainian offensive and the inevitability of Ukraine regaining all lands.  

[kraze]

5 hours ago, BeondTheGrave said:

Yeltsin- Tried to fix things, didnt, lives mostly abroad. 

yeltsin is responsible for starting at least 4 wars of aggression, filled with typical russian atrocities and zero accountability - and all that in just a single term, he made putin look like pussy compared until now.

It's just that he pretended like Russia is reliable now and can have business done with, so everybody rushed to get the cheap gas, while russian soldiers were raping Georgians and Moldovans and a photo of captured russian soldiers in Chechnya with looted carpets was making news.

He was poisoned and dethroned by putin for losing the war in Chechnya though, aka showing weakness

Edited May 2, 2022 by kraze

[kraze]

4 hours ago, FancyCat said:

Certainly that is one reason for the bridge to Crimea to stay upright, to facilitate the movement of Russians back into Russia than trapped on Crimea. I suspect one of the reasons why Ukraine isn't too intent on surrounding Russian units or pushing into Russian controlled urban regions and risking urban combat is seeking to minimize both their own casualties, civilians, and to maximize the potential for Russians to cut and run. 

With the way the SBU seems on top of pursuing Russian operations, I do feel like sooner or later some of these war criminals are going to reappear in Ukraine after the war despite being in Russia. 

 

 

And also this is a yet another proof that common russians are perfectly aware of all crimes they commit.

It's just that they admit it among themselves, but to the rest they pretend to be poor people oppressed by the evil putin so they aren't held responsible.

Basically russians looted taqiyya.

[FancyCat]

I don't think Snake Island is too terribly important, but a Russian garrison and defenses exist, but footage below shows 2 Raptor class patrol boats being turned into flaming wrecks near it, courtesy of TB2. Armament is heavy machine guns, maybe grenade launchers.

Twitter thread states with the loss of the Moskva, attacks on Snake Island are easier, as it was patrolling the area, and the remaining ADS of the BSF seemingly need to be held close to Crimea's S400 ranges for protection. Ukraine claimed a Strela-10 destroyed on the island plus a command post earlier last week so with this, I think Russia should probably evacuate the island.

 

 

[Huba]

Russian patrol boats around Snake Island met with TB2:

 

Edited May 2, 2022 by Huba

[The_MonkeyKing]

 

Ukraine got the T-72M1R variant. Many ways comparable or better than the Russian tanks fielded.

Both will penetrate each other but T-72M1R has western fire control and thermals.

Edited May 2, 2022 by The_MonkeyKing

[Huba]

1 minute ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

 

Ukraine got the T-72M1R variant. Many ways comparable or better than the Russian tanks fielded.

Both will penetrate each other but T-72M1R has western fire control and thermals.

That's interesting. It was officialy stated that we "mostly" gave away the unmodernized ones. Anyway we had at most around 100 of R version, so technically the statement was still true... 

[TheVulture]

And just to keep the record going, here's today's explosion from the vicinity of Kherson airport.

https://t.me/truexanewsua/44736

[chuckdyke]

I thought these things cost something like a few million. 

 

Edited May 2, 2022 by chuckdyke

[Cederic]

3 hours ago, FancyCat said:

Why I think Ukraine can't dally with retaking Kherson, once Russia starts shifting the view to holding its taken lands instead of gaining more, Ukraine needs to ensure Western support does not get meek at the idea of a long stalemate, by illustrating the capability of a Ukrainian offensive and the inevitability of Ukraine regaining all lands.  

For me it comes down to whether Ukraine wants to fight for Crimea or not.

If that's the plan, they're actually better returning the Donbas to January frontlines and not trying to push further to fully reclaim the whole territory. That frees resources for an assault on Crimea but also demonstrates to Europe and the US that the fight outside of Crimea has not yet finished, so of course they need to continue.

If they retake Donetsk et al and just have Crimea under Russian control they're in a politically more fraught position.

[Haiduk]

12 hours ago, Machor said:

There were comments on Twitter that they were filmed near Odesa - maybe, @Haiduk will be able to follow up.

@Battlefront.com

All things about our aviation are stricktly classified now. There was several photos and videos, which allow to make conclusions our jets use highways as runways. One Su-27 flew so low, that hit road sign, part of which hooked to its air intake. 

Regarding of new pilots.... Now is not WWII times. You will not train a pilot for 2-3 weeks to sit him in Spitfire or La-5. We have Air Force Univercity in Kharkiv, which prepare different military specialists, including pilots of different military planes. Pilots are practicing initially on light KhAZ-30 planes, then L-39 or An-26 of 203rd training aviation brigade in Chuhuiv airfield near Kharkiv and in last year on combat aircrafts. After graduation they got lieutenant rank and continue own training in combat units. I don't know how much cadets of 4th/5th years have been studying, which could be trained for combat sorties in shortest time after Chuhuiv base turned out in zone of active warfare.    

Edited May 2, 2022 by Haiduk

[Ultradave]

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Medvedev served as a stand in for Putin, so he's a non-starter.

Yes. Last time around he was just a cardboard cutout standing in front of Putin, with Putin as PM instead of president. I can't see the EU and US relaxing anything or being lenient to Russia if that came about again. Who would think it would be any different the second time ?

Dave

[c3k]

12 hours ago, Ultradave said:

Regarding the HQ artillery strike. The 200m scale marker helps. That's definitely a wide dispersal. No idea why. If our FOs reported something like that and we were sending firing data for a normal sheaf (same data for each gun), as the FDO I'd ask the XO and Smoke (Chief of Firing Battery - senior NCO on the gun line - usually an E7) to go check each gun's survey. When you survey in the battery, you are doing it so no matter where on the ground each gun is they are all pointing EXACTLY the same direction. Doesn't take being off by much to get really lousy results at the blowy uppy end of things.

If the individual guns are dispersed by such a wide range as that on the ground, then individual data would need to be calculated for each one, not for the battery as a whole, which is based, as I mentioned before on #3, in the middle.

Interesting, but probably will remain a mystery. After all this talk, I bet the answer is super simple.

 

Dave

Why is everyone assuming this was a tube-fired mission? Based on the timing and pattern, I maintain it's a Grad/MLRS style hit.

Of course...Steve already said he thinks I'm wrong.

Artillery forensics is not my area of expertise. In fact, I fear I may know more about the Chinese housing bubble than I know about sheaf procedures.

[Ultradave]

3 minutes ago, c3k said:

Why is everyone assuming this was a tube-fired mission? Based on the timing and pattern, I maintain it's a Grad/MLRS style hit.

Of course...Steve already said he thinks I'm wrong.

Artillery forensics is not my area of expertise. In fact, I fear I may know more about the Chinese housing bubble than I know about sheaf procedures.

Could easily be both together. A Bn FDC can easily coordinate that.

Dave

[JonS]

2 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

I thought these things cost something like a few million. 

Well, taking a low end, steel rebar is around US$1,500/tonne, so a melted down T-72 (44tonnes) runs to about US$67,000. That's significantly more than $50k, but it does assume pure metal, rather than funky alloys and other impurities.

Presumably the ones on the civilian market have had all the shiny and really value-dense stuff stripped out. So no radio, sight, thermals, ERA, RWS, MGs, etc. Still, $50k does seem cheap. On the other hand, tanks are horrifically expensive to maintain, so imagine you're looking at something like the cost of purchase on an annual basis for fuel and maintenance. That can't be good for propping up the purchase price.

Finally, AIUI, a lot of the ex-Sov stuff on the civilian market entered it in the early '90s when Honest Sergei would flog you a T-72 that he didn't own - but did have the keys to - for the price of a case of vodka. From a starting point that low, $50k is actually a pretty good markup.

 

Also also, and probably most relevantly: $50k was the price for a ****ter in 2015

Its 2022 now, so you're going to need to rustle up €200k

 

DO WANT

Edited May 2, 2022 by JonS

[c3k]

6 hours ago, chrisl said:

Apparently the regional government thinks that the bridge was sabotaged: AP report

It could be that someone heard the noise when it fell and thought it was an explosion, but I tend to agree with the comments so far that it looks more like bad engineering and neglect, without any real indications of pyrotechnics.  Maybe somebody used a couple of $50 bottle jacks from Harbor Freight to push the bridge off its pier.

 

 

 

Were -I- the regional governor, I'd certainly declare it to be the work of saboteurs, too.  I mean...if it were just neglect that led to military logistics shortfall, the FSB may want to make an example of a politician who is pocketing money for his own ends rather than allocating it as he should.  Obviously...OTHER regional governors may be corrupt, but I am not. Comrade.

[The_Capt]

7 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

This is now a few days stale and tells us what we here already know, but fwiw...

https://turcopolier.com/igor-ivanovich-strelkov-ttg/

The general conclusion in unfortunately not joyful – the expected (by the enemy) offensive of the Russian group to encircle the Donetsk group of Ukrainian armed forces met fierce resistance and will most likely not lead to a complete encirclement and destruction of the enemy group (unless 2-3 tank corps “fall from the sky” to urgently break through the frontline and link up deep in the UAF rears). The “Cannae” certainly did’t happen.

I am leaning towards Steve’s initial theory that this whole thing was a staged production.  The RA needed to look busy but knew they could not possibly pull off what was being asked, so “look busy, don’t die” looks to be the main scheme of manoeuvre here.

That, or this was the attempt and it fizzled as predicted, because the terrain and force math simply never added up.  Russia is approaching the bottom of the barrel option-wise.  Try to dig in and hold on while declaring victory…or leave.  That first one may work for awhile but the UA will eventually move to major offensives, and that is a LOT of terrain to try and defend.