How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Vacillator]

7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

It is fascinating to me how good the quality is of OSINT that us "amateurs" are able to make pretty accurate judgements of how the war is going.

Since day one of the invasion if not before, this forum has given me a far better view of what's going on, thanks to everyone involved .

[c3k]

3 hours ago, Seedorf81 said:

Just for reference..

US ARMY in WW2 lost, from Pearl Harbor until Japanese surrender, nineteen (19) generals through direct enemy fire. Included are one dying in POWcamp, and two missing in action who's cause of death was unknown.

(A whole lot more died of airplane-crashes, but those were not downed by enemies!)

Even if you consider changed tactics and weaponry, It makes the Russian General dying-rate unbelievable.

 

A good book on WWII German high-ranking officer casualties is "Quiet Flows the Rhine" by French MacLean.

Doctrinally, different militaries have different expectations of leaders of various ranks. 

Whatever the official (and unofficial) Russian expectations are...I'm sure that various intel sources have helped to locate  high-ranking officers and headquarters and that Ukraine targets them appropriately.

Edited April 30, 2022 by c3k

[akd]

Ooh, they got another one:

Edited April 30, 2022 by akd

[c3k]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Oh, that is so much better!  Then we might have a couple more generals' names coming soon.

This gets me back to my thinking that the first shot on the building was a precision munition and not a really lucky grad hit.  The rest of the grads came nowhere near to hitting that building.

I'm thinking that Ukraine has precision munitions of some sort and they are trying to keep the Russians from knowing about it.  They had intel that a general was in the building and so used one of the precision munitions to make SURE they got him.  The Grads were fired to cover up the use of whatever they used.

Sorry folks, I don't buy it that the first explosion was lucky.

Steve

Nah. I disagree.

That Grad was not very impressive for a decapitation strike...or whatever you think it was. It landed just short of the building (hit the entrance/side? at ground level) to my view. If Ukraine really had something precision, it would've aimed for the roof and had a delayed fuse...and something with a bit more oomph if they had it.

 

[sburke]

after the FU Russian warship stamps I want one of these!

Ukrainian makes keychains from downed Russian jet | Watch (msn.com)

[akd]

Great article by Timothy Snyder:

https://www.newyorker.com/news/essay/the-war-in-ukraine-is-a-colonial-war?mbid=social_twitter&utm_social-type=owned&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_brand=tny

[Phantom Captain]

4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Denmark is going to give Ukraine 25 Piranha III APCs, 50 M113 APCs and heavy 120 mm M/10 mortars (M120 in US) with ammunition

https://olfi.dk

 

 

I have a real problem mis-identifying these in Steel Beasts.  On first glance I always think they are BTRs and wind up shooting my own troops.    Then it makes me gun-shy to shoot real BTRs.  

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, c3k said:

Nah. I disagree.

That Grad was not very impressive for a decapitation strike...or whatever you think it was. It landed just short of the building (hit the entrance/side? at ground level) to my view. If Ukraine really had something precision, it would've aimed for the roof and had a delayed fuse...and something with a bit more oomph if they had it.

 

They closed the loop between the intel and the shooters, and got steel on the target, that is never a bad day.

[Phantom Captain]

44 minutes ago, sburke said:

after the FU Russian warship stamps I want one of these!

Ukrainian makes keychains from downed Russian jet | Watch (msn.com)

Want!!

 

[Aragorn2002]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

This video gives you a little sense of the scale of grain theft that's going on.  I presume the trucks are all stolen as well:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/ue3ud0/stolen_grain_trucks_marked_with_a_z_spotted_in/

Steve

Looks like the Russians want to create a second Holodomor. The picture I get while reading the posts confirms that. Beginning to look like ethnic cleansing. All these massacres, deportations and other violence convinces me this is no ordinary war and we should stop thinking about it that way.

[dan/california]

No one has stood stronger, not once in the last 5,000 years.

[Kraft]

3 hours ago, akd said:

Ooh, they got another one:

Rich_May on reddit noticed that this is the exact same position from the previous incident

Different time, different Stugna-P unit and obviously the Russians supplied a new Ka-52 as well

 

Edited May 1, 2022 by Kraft

[JonS]

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

This gets me back to my thinking that the first shot on the building was a precision munition and not a really lucky grad hit.

I mean ... the rounds have to land somewhere, and within the CEP the building is about as likely as any specific tree or specific piece of open ground. But, within the apparent CEP^ there is a lot of open ground, making it far more likely that some piece (rather than a specific piece) of open ground will be hit rather than the building.

It is ... curious that the camera was centred - and zoomed - exactly on the building. Granted, whoever was filming presumably knew there was an FFE coming, and what the point of aim was. Still, they appeared confident that the point of aim itself would be hit, rather than just the area around the POA.

On the other hand, assuming the building was the point of aim, then that's a good indication that Ukrainian gunners have solved the artillery problem. The mission looks like it's a Circular 200, which is no surprise as it delivers good shrapnel coverage across the entire area^^. However the MPI appears to be very well centred on the building, indicating that they have good survey and up to date corrections-of-the-moment; met, shell lot and charge variation, etc. Still, I'd have expected to see some air burst fuzing, and that appears absent.

 

^ Ie, the big circle where all the rounds land

^^ assume that int provided confirmation that something shiny was in the building. Cool, let's snot the building! Except, there is always stuff spread around that you don't know about and can't see - vehicles in hides, sections providing security, parts of the shiny thing split off and set up nearby for dispersion or because there isn't enough room, caches of fuel and/or ammo, etc. Slapping a Circular 200 down (instead of, say, a Converge just on the building) means you're likely to mess with the feng shui of all those other bits and pieces, as well as the shiny thing in the building.

Edited May 1, 2022 by JonS

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, c3k said:

Nah. I disagree.

That Grad was not very impressive for a decapitation strike...or whatever you think it was. It landed just short of the building (hit the entrance/side? at ground level) to my view. If Ukraine really had something precision, it would've aimed for the roof and had a delayed fuse...and something with a bit more oomph if they had it.

 

Oooo!!!  I disagree with your disagreement

Look at the first hit again.  Watch the smoke start to clear.  There is smoke coming out from the middle of the roof.  I think what you mistook for an explosion at the front of the house (which is well within precision margin of error, BTW) for a round penetrating through the roof and detonating somewhere near the ground floor.

As for the "if Ukraine really had something precision" comment, you then go on to describe a situation where they had a choice of precision munitions.  We're not sure they have any precision artillery at all, so a choice really isn't an option for them.  Instead they'd have to either go with what they had, and insure it dropped in the general's lap, or they would have not used it and hoped that their wildly inaccurate artillery would score a lucky hit.

Let's also keep in mind that apparently whatever they used had enough oomph to kill their intended target.  So your definition of oomph doesn't appear to be relevant as that one hit got the job done.

There was only one hit on the target and it was the first round sent.  All other impacts ranged between wildly off target to not likely near enough to kill anybody in that building.  I'll stand by what I said.  I do not think that first hit was luck, I think it was technology at work.

Steve

[FancyCat]

Let's assume the Russians arent lying about a million Ukrainians in Russia now, how many Ukrainians lived in the occupied areas in total? Trying to figure out the suspected percentages between willing pro-Russian and unwilling, (but wouldn't willing pro-Russians stay on the occupied land?)(or do you suppose the supply situation is such that pro-russian civilians can't access Russian supply lines? That could explain some depopulation ongoing to safer locations with access to food and shelter.

I'm not sure Ukraine is gonna just let a million ****ing people disappear from Ukraine.

[dan/california]

18 minutes ago, JonS said:

I mean ... the rounds have to land somewhere, and within the CEP the building is about as likely as any specific tree or specific piece of open ground. But, within the apparent CEP^ there is a lot of open ground, making it far more likely that some piece (rather than a specific piece) of open ground will be hit rather than the building.

It is ... curious that the camera was centred - and zoomed - exactly on the building. Granted, whoever was filming presumably knew there was an FFE coming, and what the point of aim was. Still, they appeared confident that the point of aim itself would be hit, rather than just the area around the POI.

On the other hand, assuming the building was the point of aim, then that's a good that Ukrainian gunners have solved the artillery problem. The mission looks like it's a Circular 200, which is no surprise as it delivers good shrapnel coverage across the entire area^^. However the MPI appears to be very well centred on the building, indicating that they have good survey and up to date corrections-of-the-moment; met, shell lot and charge variation, etc. Still, I'd have expected to see some air burst fuzing, and that appears absent.

 

^ Ie, the big circle where all the rounds land

^^ assume that int provided confirmation that something shiny was in the building. Cool, let's snot the building! Except, there is always stuff spread around that you don't know about and can't see - vehicles in hides, sections providing security, parts of the shiny thing split off and set up nearby for dispersion or because there isn't enough room, caches of fuel and/or ammo, etc. Slapping a Circular 200 down (instead of, say, a Converge just on the building) means you're likely to mess with the feng shui of all those other bits and pieces, as well as the shiny thing in the building.

And this gentlemen is why we hang out here, chapter and verse from an absolute pro.

[Battlefront.com]

13 minutes ago, JonS said:

I mean ... the rounds have to land somewhere, and within the CEP the building is about as likely as any specific tree or specific piece of open ground. But, within the apparent CEP^ there is a lot of open ground, making it far more likely that some piece (rather than a specific piece) of open ground will be hit rather than the building.

It is ... curious that the camera was centred - and zoomed - exactly on the building. Granted, whoever was filming presumably knew there was an FFE coming, and what the point of aim was. Still, they appeared confident that the point of aim itself would be hit, rather than just the area around the POI.

That and the first round struck dead smack center on target.  The chances that the first round happened to hit the target and all the other ones hardly came close is, of course, technically possible.  But likely?  Not very IMHO.

13 minutes ago, JonS said:

On the other hand, assuming the building was the point of aim, then that's a good that Ukrainian gunners have solved the artillery problem. The mission looks like it's a Circular 200, which is no surprise as it delivers good shrapnel coverage across the entire area^^. However the MPI appears to be very well centred on the building, indicating that they have good survey and up to date corrections-of-the-moment; met, shell lot and charge variation, etc. Still, I'd have expected to see some air burst fuzing, and that appears absent.

It is curious they didn't use any airbursts, but I agree that it doesn't appear that they did.

13 minutes ago, JonS said:

^ Ie, the big circle where all the rounds land

It does appear that the building is center to the CEP.

13 minutes ago, JonS said:

^^ assume that int providing confirmation that something shiny was in the building. Cool, let's snot the building! Except, there is always stuff spread around that you don't know about and can't see - vehicles in hides, sections providing security, parts of the shiny thing split off and set up nearby for dispersion or because there isn't enough room, caches of fuel and/or ammo, etc. Slapping a Circular 200 down (instead of, say, a Converge just on the building) means you're likely to mess with the feng shui of all those other bits and pieces, as well as the shiny thing in the building.

The accompanying information explicitly states the National Guard identified there was a high valued target in that building.  If we believe this to be true, they would have used the most effective fire available to that sector of front to level that building.

So either they got super duper luck with the first round that landed or they had a little help from something a bit smarter than average.  Both are possible, but I still lean towards something precision (and I don't think a TB2 missile would create that much of a fireball).

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

16 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Let's assume the Russians arent lying about a million Ukrainians in Russia now, how many Ukrainians lived in the occupied areas in total? Trying to figure out the suspected percentages between willing pro-Russian and unwilling, (but wouldn't willing pro-Russians stay on the occupied land?)(or do you suppose the supply situation is such that pro-russian civilians can't access Russian supply lines? That could explain some depopulation ongoing to safer locations with access to food and shelter.

I'm not sure Ukraine is gonna just let a million ****ing people disappear from Ukraine.

For sure some many 10s of thousands of either super-scared Pro-Ukrainians or generally Pro-Russians would have gone over the border right at the beginning or shortly after Russia started demonstrating their barbarity.  If I were a civilian in some place where civilians were getting executed I might start heading towards the Russian border in hopes that it would make me look like "one of ours" and allow me through instead of killing me for being "one of theirs".  Presuming, of course, I wasn't physically able to drift off into the woods and cause problems

Steve

[JonS]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

If we believe this to be true, they would have used the most effective fire available to that sector of front to level that building.

HQs are big. Bigger than you'd think. Army HQs - assuming that's what it was - are really big. Bigger than just one building.

[Battlefront.com]

Just now, JonS said:

HQs are big. Bigger than you'd think. Army HQs - assuming that's what it was - are really big. Bigger than just one building.

Oh, absolutely.  But this might not have been an HQ.  Could just be like this famous example out of Normandy where a whole bunch of SS officers (Leibstandarte or Das Reich, I forget which) gathered together in something like a farmhouse.  Somehow the US found out about it and killed them with an artillery strike.  No big elaborate HQ, just a spot for some brass to look at a map.  After that the SS were rather paranoid about gathering together.

Anyway, my point here is that the Ukrainians seemed to have some intel about where the enemy was going to be.  It sounds just like a senior Russian officer to want to meet in a big house rather than a cramped command vehicle.

Steve

 

[JonS]

17 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The chances that the first round happened to hit the target and all the other ones hardly came close is, of course, technically possible.  But likely?  Not very IMHO.

Each gun firing on a mission is given a specific point of aim within the overall mission distribution. So, for example, say you have a Circular 200 and 12 guns firing (ie, a battalion). One of the guns will be given bearing and elevation data for the centre of the circle. Another gun will be given firing data for 12-o'colock and 100m out, and the other guns spread evenly around the 100m radius circle. So, of course, you would expect most of the rounds to 'miss' the building, because they weren't aiming at it to start with. Minute variations between rounds mean that each guns' subsequent rounds smear out in a smallish area around it's own particular point of aim, within the overall battalion distribution.

Then again... that one gun that was aiming at the centre 'should' have hit it again, or at least come close. But I didn't see anything come close - which could be for any number of reasons, including that that one gun had a slightly different mission - "No 1, load Excalibur, Bearing 1640, elevation 182, at my command, one round, fire for effect." (except the commands are most likely issued digitally, rather than by voice)

Edited May 1, 2022 by JonS

[dan/california]

JonS is the real expert here, but i want to throw in a little semi informed speculation. I think there were two batteries/sections shooting, and one of them was better than the other one. I agree with Steve that the first shell that hit the actual building was guided. But we won't know if was a vengeful God or a laser beam until someone tells us. Given that they got the General, maybe they will, eventually. So just going thru the film hit by hit. It really looks like there are two overlapping circles. The first one is 100% on target with the a second shell landing at the end of the copse of trees the building is in, and then after about 8 impacts rounds start landing in the field. I think rounds keep landing in the field after they stop hitting the copse of trees. My theory is that the intel was good enough to get an absolute max priority fire mission from everything that could reach. Either they were attempting a ToT barrage from two different locations, or if you are on team Steve regarding the guided round the other battery held back by 10 seconds or so. This would be to be sure no one ducked before the guided round hit. I have no clue if The Ukr is up to that level of coordination at this exact moment. Or If the FDC just put everything they had that could reach on the target and it all worked out.

 

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, JonS said:

Still, I'd have expected to see some air burst fuzing, and that appears absent.

Neither side is using much airburst anywhere. It has been mentioned before with some pretty convincing analysis of blast patterns. Did the Soviet military just decide that airburst wasn't worth the money/complexity and just never made any 152mm airburst? They made them but cheaped out and they all went bad? Was this influenced by the risk of jamming? I a have strong memory of reading about a NATO base in Bosnia that was using a jammer to detonate air-bursting mortar shells so high they were basically harmless. Now because I remember reading it doesn't mean it is true. But if I am remembering that correctly, maybe the Russians decided it was too expensive to counter and just gave up on airburst fuses?

Edited May 1, 2022 by dan/california
spelling

[MikeyD]

What's the chance Ukraine combined a single precision strike in conjunction with a normal battery fire? One round to hit the building, the rest to make sure there was no place to run. I don't know what Ukraine has for precision ordnance or if differing  ballistics would make it difficult to coordinate with standard artillery fire.

[FancyCat]

Big thread but I wanted to show apparently Ukrainians have deployed new units into the Donbas.