How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kinophile]

 

Eh? Gerasimov?

 

[sburke]

2 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

 

Eh? Gerasimov?

 

wouldn't that be a coup.  Could be possible if there was a meeting between the two.  One can dream.

[LongLeftFlank]

16 hours ago, The_Capt said:

So I finally took MFSF up and over this area:

The punchline is that there is not a lot of good news for the Russians along this axis, if their goal is Slovyansk.  I found three rough options for something BTG size to try and break through that Severski-Donetsk River line and none are optimal but some are definitely better than other.

Axis #1 - Swing north and come across as Seredenje as there is a gap between the Oskil River and that soggy mess to the south.  Possible crossing points right at Seredenji:

It ain't pretty but it is the best of the bunch.  Problem here is that once you get to a town called Oleksandrivka :

Welcome to the Black Forest, which one would need to bust through to get to a northern approach to Slovyansk.  Big problem here is then you are on the Izyum axis on advance = traffic jam.

So then we take Axis 2 - The Russian Most Probable:

And further up:

This would be the land of those three bridges:

So Axis #2 is a hellish landscape from a manoeuvre point of view.  This would be on the back side of Lyman and it is like this for along way north and south.  Worse, it is dominated by high ground pretty to the West and South:   

Axis 2 will take the least imagination and is basically a frontal - so you know the Russians will pick it.  This is a very complex engineering problem and a major choke point where you are going to get hammered the entire way.  I suspect that the Russians already took a lot of losses back at the Zarichne/Torske choke point:

Here looking east back towards Kreminna.

And then there is Axis 3:

Still pretty messy looking that way but if you swing a bit further south and east, thing open up a fair bunch:

That is looking south.  Problem with Axis 3 is that one still has to traverse that wooded soggy bit and I could not find any major bridges.  The big advantage of Axis 3 is that it opens way op around the south end of Slovanyanks and you could set up a cut-off and break out further South.

The Russian may try a combo of these but the long pole in the tent will be engineering support - shame they lost all that equipment in the opening of this thing.  None of these are easy goes, my money is on a Axis 2 & 3 combo as 1 is easier but it really does not lead to anything.

Either way, a lot of CM battlefields here, heck there is an entire campaign in this.

On the axis of the eastern attack (Kreminna-Lyman-Sloviansk), it was reported previously that the RA struck south last week and grabbed (most of?) Yampil. But consensus was that it looks very much like a (literally!) dead end for them, between the woods (Dibrova) and the river. 

As you say, they might try a wider hook to cross the river and get right round (south end of this map), but.....

 

 

Edited May 1, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[LongLeftFlank]

21 hours ago, Combatintman said:

The intact bridge is actually two and possibly three crossings.  Nonetheless, that is a nasty fight if the Ukrainians choose to make it so.

Location:

Intact Bridges.kmz 701 B · 1 download

Satellite View:

Oblique view looking SW-NE

This looks awesome, but could someone possibly clue me in as to where on the originally referenced map (tweet) this is?

Is this likely to be a contested crossing? If it's those squares, why would the RA do a river assault instead of attacking from the other direction? 

Many thanks!

Edited May 1, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[LongLeftFlank]

Useful.

 

 

[Combatintman]

Not sure I understand the question but the original map said that the intact bridges were the green shaded area which is slightly south of the actual bridges where there is a a mobility corridor marking in blue in the correct place for the bridges.  Hopefully this answers the question ...

[LongLeftFlank]

25 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

Not sure I understand the question but the original map said that the intact bridges were the green shaded area which is slightly south of the actual bridges where there is a a mobility corridor marking in blue in the correct place for the bridges.  Hopefully this answers the question ...

cheers mate, the twitter feed you repied to was talking about 'squares' and the only squares I could see were up in the NW quadrant. I was like, who would bother assaulting (or defending) that? It's behind RU lines at this point.

I've stepped away from this for a few hours, but I remain interested in Sviatohyrsk and the hill (and caves) between it and Alexandrivka. More as a bastion/overlook than a crossing point (the existing bridge isn't for vehicles (?) and the banks seem too steep for a pontoon.

... I was wondering whether the VDV troops were going to try to assault it (shades of bloody Monte Cassino) before their HQ got smeared all over the oblast.

****

EDIT:  Looking ahead, regardless of what Bruno Ganz may be doing in the Kremlin right now, if I'm the Russian army commander and

1.  accepting that the Giant Encirclement isn't gonna happen, at this point I am going to

2. focus my (dwindling) remaining offensive potential on securing a stop line that includes natural defensible features (like the river and this here hill!), so....

3.  I can hold on to the Izium 'bulge', which itself presents a continuous threat to the Ukrainian held area of the Donbass.

4.  On the happy if desperate assumption that I can hold on to it through a cease fire, lick my wounds and try for a rematch sometime later, or at least bargain it away later because it's too costly to take back.

Real World War 1 thinking here, but otoh that defensive line concept worked for the Ukes from 2014 - pressent.

Hypothesis

 

 

Edited May 1, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Combatintman]

16 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Useful.

 

 

Now if you turn on the BTGs in the Izyum salient area - you arrive at 16, which is a figure I recall assessing as a top end number of BTGs in the area quite a few days back.

The question now being (well its always been the question) is it enough?  The assessment remains pretty much the same as my initial assessment - getting to Barvinkove is going to consume 2-3 BTGs and the fight for Barvinkove should consume about the same number.  If, as I assess, the intent is to hook east to flank Slovyansk, then there are enough towns/villages along that route to consume at least another 4-5 BTGs.  Going down the direct axis to Slovyansk will also likely consume 2-3 BTGs and taking Slovyansk at least 4-5 and I'm being generous to the Russians here.  From what I'm tracking, at least two and possibly three of those BTGs are probably incapable of offensive operations having suffered attrition during their recent push.

Recent actions prove that every small town/village that is contested by the Ukrainians consumes one BTG and takes 2-3 days to clear.  There then seems to be a pause of 2-3 days before the ahem ... juggernaut resumes offensive operations.  As I've said earlier, blitzkrieg this ain't and 'Slovyansk by May 09' is not an achievable timeline assuming of course that the Ukrainians contest in the manner expected.  This is more bite, hold, reset, bite hold, reset.  In the reset periods, the Russian Air Force comes into play and watching what they're hitting seems to be a reasonable indicator of which town/village is next for 'de-nazification.'

[Combatintman]

59 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

cheers mate, the twitter feed you repied to was talking about 'squares' and the only squares I could see were up in the NW quadrant. I was like, who would bother assaulting (or defending) that? It's behind RU lines at this point.

I've stepped away from this for a few hours, but I remain interested in Sviatohyrsk and the hill (and caves) between it and Alexandrivka. More as a bastion/overlook than a crossing point (the existing bridge isn't for vehicles (?) and the banks seem too steep for a pontoon.

... I was wondering whether the VDV troops were going to try to assault it (shades of bloody Monte Cassino) before their HQ got smeared all over the oblast.

****

EDIT:  Looking ahead, regardless of what Bruno Ganz may be doing in the Kremlin right now, if I'm the Russian army commander and

1.  accepting that the Giant Encirclement isn't gonna happen, at this point I am going to

2. focus my (dwindling) remaining offensive potential on securing a stop line that includes natural defensible features (like the river and this here hill!), so....

3.  I can hold on to the Izium 'bulge', which itself presents a continuous threat to the Ukrainian held area of the Donbass.

4.  On the happy if desperate assumption that I can hold on to it through a cease fire, lick my wounds and try for a rematch sometime later, or at least bargain it away later because it's too costly to take back.

Real World War 1 thinking here, but otoh that defensive line concept worked for the Ukes from 2014 - pressent.

Hypothesis

 

 

The bridge near the monastery, according to your other quoted graphic, remains intact and is a Class 60 plus bridge.  The Twitter image is confusing to the untrained eye because of the angle at which it is taken so the "I don't think it its intended for driving" comment is what I would politely call 'questionable.'  The confusion is due to the road deck of the bridge being obscured by the foreground bridge railing.

Personally I think you're trying to take the Lord of the Rings thing (Orcs and caves) too far with this one.  It is a difficult river crossing in a place the Russians don't have to assault if the target is Slovyansk because there are already BTGs that can get there from positions west of that crossing.  Sure they could drive at it with the intent of trapping units that might be rattling around the Oleksandrivka area but there was some reporting a few days back that suggested that Ukraine's 57 Motorised Brigade, which had been previously consistently reported there, had already withdrawn.

[Haiduk]

12 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

EuroMaidan Press is saying the general was in charge of airborne troops:

 

He hasn't a uniform of VDV on the photo and one of authors of article about EW - EuroMaidan is just news collector media, alas, our journalists often don't understand enough in military issues and don't verify information. 

Regarding Arestovich. I don't recommend him as a source. Before the war he had a reputation of narcissic peacock and swindler. All his statements are just "victorious lullaby for housewives", where the truth is mixing with fiction. He has diploma of psyсhologist, so authorities hired him to reassure the population, which isn't versed in military affairs. Dubious decision, when many people learn about the course of war not from General Staff reports or really good analysts, but from this storyleller. 

Edited May 1, 2022 by Haiduk

[LongLeftFlank]

47 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

The bridge near the monastery, according to your other quoted graphic, remains intact and is a Class 60 plus bridge.  The Twitter image is confusing to the untrained eye because of the angle at which it is taken so the "I don't think it its intended for driving" comment is what I would politely call 'questionable.'  The confusion is due to the road deck of the bridge being obscured by the foreground bridge railing.

Personally I think you're trying to take the Lord of the Rings thing (Orcs and caves) too far with this one.  It is a difficult river crossing in a place the Russians don't have to assault if the target is Slovyansk because there are already BTGs that can get there from positions west of that crossing.  Sure they could drive at it with the intent of trapping units that might be rattling around the Oleksandrivka area but there was some reporting a few days back that suggested that Ukraine's 57 Motorised Brigade, which had been previously consistently reported there, had already withdrawn.

Fair enough, I shall defer to the pros!

One of my many unfinished projects is CMBN Le Carillon/La Meauffe. The Carillon 'heights' were a mere 70m, yet they and the German spotters they shielded were able to hold the right bank of the Vire and slow walk/burn out two successive US regiments in the bocage for pretty much a full month (16 Jun - 15 Jul 1944).

So, I'm doubtless pushing an analogy too far.

Edited May 1, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Haiduk]

9 hours ago, akd said:

Ooh, they got another one:

After first hit of Ka-52 with Stugna-P 3rd-4th of April, there was information, that since two of three days 95th air-assault brigade repeated this. So, looks like this can be that episode, happened between 7th-10th of April

Edited May 1, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Useful.

 

 

According to Russian sources, together with 57th mot.inf. brigade is fighting 1st Special purpose operative brigade of National Guard. You can see their videos in forest terrain, marked with yellow cross in green circle sign. 

[kraze]

I confirm that Arestovich is unreliable source. His messaging is directed at our own population to help boost the morale. Our housewives do love him for it though.

When it comes to anything official among Ukrainian sources - I suggest using just that, only official army and political outlets, of people who actually call the shots.

[Ultradave]

6 hours ago, dan/california said:

Neither side is using much airburst anywhere. It has been mentioned before with some pretty convincing analysis of blast patterns. Did the Soviet military just decide that airburst wasn't worth the money/complexity and just never made any 152mm airburst? They made them but cheaped out and they all went bad? Was this influenced by the risk of jamming? I a have strong memory of reading about a NATO base in Bosnia that was using a jammer to detonate air-bursting mortar shells so high they were basically harmless. Now because I remember reading it doesn't mean it is true. But if I am remembering that correctly, maybe the Russians decided it was too expensive to counter and just gave up on airburst fuses?

You don't have to use VT. You can use Mechanical Time fuses which are simple and really cheap. For artillery airburst it it two more steps in the to calculate in the firing data. Even if you are doing the calculations manually, without any computers, it's only a few more seconds to calculate and check. And VT requires one extra calculation. MT can't be jammed, either. It's just a mechanical countdown timer.

Now I have no idea whether the RA or UA has a lot or even any of those. 

Dave

[Haiduk]

@sburke @Kinophile

Mayor Grigoriy Artemyev, officer of military commandant unit. Killed 25th of April

 

Edited May 1, 2022 by Haiduk

[chuckdyke]

Made in China these tires. I think relations between Ukraine and Bejing may improve. A stealth mission by special forces couldn't have done it better. 

[Ultradave]

5 hours ago, MikeyD said:

What's the chance Ukraine combined a single precision strike in conjunction with a normal battery fire? One round to hit the building, the rest to make sure there was no place to run. I don't know what Ukraine has for precision ordnance or if differing  ballistics would make it difficult to coordinate with standard artillery fire.

A lot has already been said, but if this was some kind of HQ, and set up like you SHOULD set up an HQ, you might be using the building for "office space", however, all the vehicles would be parked and camouflaged in the woods surrounding, and if there are radios in the building, the antennas SHOULD be scattered about in cover somewhere that is not the building. Also, for a major HQ of some kind, it should be surrounded by some sort of AA capability, even if that's just several crews of MANPADS, also in the woods. 

So that distribution looks "normal".  They hit the building dead on, whether by precision or good data. Pretty good chance they can generate an exact GPS or grid coordinate for a building like that. If not precision a precision round then it would be the number 3 gun firing at that coordinate. #3 is the center of the battery and is SUPPOSED to be your best gun crew. That's the gun you register with, and should have the most proficient crew and gun chief. At least that's how we do it (we being US and what I know of Cdn and UK - I think all NATO is pretty standard that way) And in a normal unadjusted sheaf, with no corrections applied, #3 would land center of the pattern. Unadjusted, the pattern should mimic the distribution of the firing battery guns on the ground (say they are set up at the front of a treeline somewhere, which is an irregular shape). When you have spare time, you figure out Terrain Gun Position Corrections. That's the deviation from a straight, regularly spaced line, to what you have on the ground. Apply those to each gun individually, and then your standard sheaf is a regular spaced even line (within CEP). From THOSE, you can then apply other corrections for different shapes - circular, converging, etc. BUT, if your target is significantly off your center line of fire, then those TGPCs become less accurate and your sheaf different, not the perfect line.

Looks to me like they wanted to cover the likely area of where the antennas, support vehicles, etc could be stashed and not just the building.

Dave

[dan/california]

The Russians seem to have a compulsive desire to die trying to take the most defensible spot on the Ukrainian lines. Because this is the exact spot Combatintman referenced above as the place no sane army would attack. Hopefully the will be very, VERY sorry.

 

6 hours ago, Combatintman said:

The bridge near the monastery, according to your other quoted graphic, remains intact and is a Class 60 plus bridge.  The Twitter image is confusing to the untrained eye because of the angle at which it is taken so the "I don't think it its intended for driving" comment is what I would politely call 'questionable.'  The confusion is due to the road deck of the bridge being obscured by the foreground bridge railing.

Personally I think you're trying to take the Lord of the Rings thing (Orcs and caves) too far with this one.  It is a difficult river crossing in a place the Russians don't have to assault if the target is Slovyansk because there are already BTGs that can get there from positions west of that crossing.  Sure they could drive at it with the intent of trapping units that might be rattling around the Oleksandrivka area but there was some reporting a few days back that suggested that Ukraine's 57 Motorised Brigade, which had been previously consistently reported there, had already withdrawn.

 

[Haiduk]

Railroad bridge partially collapsed in Kursk oblast between Sudzha and Sosnovyi Bor. There is no photos in present time, just a statement of Kursk oblast governor. This is close to Ukrainian border in Sumy oblast. Also this railway branch goes to Belgorod

There is unknown either this was diversion or again consequences of heavy military trains movement through old infrastructure

 

Ukrainian Operative Command "South" reported about new strike at Zmiinyi island. Claimed that communication vehicle was destroyed, three AA assets. Part of Russian ships and Raptor assault boats are sailing to Zmiinyi area now. Zmiinyi situates within range of heavy Ukrainian MLRS Uragan, Smerch and Vil'kha.

 

Ruslan Leviyev, member of OSINT community CITteam, writes from the words of his source in Belgorod, that today army general  Gerasimov and his officers arrived to Belgorod airport on two Mi-8 helicopters under the guard of three Ka-52. During Gerasimov went from helicopter to own Tu-154, which arrived here like and two other such planes (probably they took aboard other generals), Ka-52 flew around airfield. Obviously this "helicopter sounds" heard citizens of Belgorod, but this wasn't UKR attack. Some our media told Gerasimov got light wound in the hip during command post shelling near Izium, but source of Leviyev told him Gerasimov walked quet normally without help.

 Here is Russian helicopters, circling over airport area

 

Edited May 1, 2022 by Haiduk

[DesertFox]

14 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Railroad bridge partially collapsed in Kursk oblast between Sudzha and Sosnovyi Bor. There is no photos in present time, just a statement of Kursk oblast governor. This is close to Ukrainian border in Sumy oblast. Also this railway branch goes to Belgorod

There is unknown either this was diversion or again consequences of heavy military trains movement through old infrastructure

This is supposed to be that bridge. Doesn´t look that "partially collapsed" to me...

 

 

[Haiduk]

Just now, DesertFox said:

This is supposed to be that bridge. Doesn´t look that "partially collapsed" to me...

 

 

No, this is old photo of 2020 from Murmansk oblast

Edited May 1, 2022 by Haiduk

[DesertFox]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

No, this is old photo of 2020 from Murmansk oblast

Ahh, dang!

[DesertFox]

 

 

[Haiduk]

11 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

Moscow is also needs a brigade of psychiatrists. Looks like 1st of May event run-through. The writing on the red banner is a phrase of Putin : "Why do we need such a world if there is no [place for] Russia in it?!"

This is real state-level shizophrenia, when Putin blames Lenin and Bolshevicks in destroying of Great Russia, artifical dividing of "unite Russian nation" and creating of "artifical national republic", like Ukraine, and in the same time occupants is setting again monuments of Lenin in occupied cities and raising red banners.

 

Edited May 1, 2022 by Haiduk